Support & Resistance Levels

This Blog provides futures market outlook for different commodities and futures trading markets, mostly stock index futures, as well as support and resistance levels for Crude Oil futures, Gold futures, Euro currency and others. At times the daily trading blog will include educational information about different aspects of commodity and futures trading.

Day Trading Psychology, Levels & Economic Reports 10.31.2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Hello Traders,

 

I read the following from:  http://www.daytradingpsychology.com/

and thought it was worth sharing. I think that if you know which category you fall into, it may actually help you deal with this “non human brain friendly thing called trading”……

 

THE COMPULSIVE BRAIN

People with Compulsive brains tend to get stuck in a particular thought or view of the market. Whether bullish or bearish, right or wrong, the main thing is that their minds are closed.

People with compulsive brains often don’t use stops (because they “know” what’s going to happen). They can have some amazing winners, but they will hold a losing position much longer than necessary because they are not open to the feedback the market is giving. These folks demonstrate the same closed-mindedness in daily life and tend to have very strict, by-the-book ways of doing things.

THE IMPULSIVE BRAIN

People with Impulsive brain function are the exact opposite. They tend to stop themselves out all the time and over-use the reverse button. They over-trade. Like a fish spotting a shiny lure, they can’t resist getting involved in a moving market.

In other words, they lack impulse control. This will show up not only in trading, but in conversation, driving, eating and other aspects of daily life.

THE ANXIOUS BRAIN

The third type of brain function found among traders is the Anxious Brain. These folks live with a non-specific sense of impending doom. They see the glass of life as half empty.

When they take risks in trading, they are skeptical and have a heightened sense of the obstacles in their way to success. For example, if they are long, they over-focus on resistance. Continue reading “Day Trading Psychology, Levels & Economic Reports 10.31.2014”

FOMC Results, Increased Volatility & Economic Reports 10.30.2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Hello Traders,

 

FOMC lived up to the hype with increased volatility in many markets including stock indices, currencies, metals and mainly the bond market ( I recommend exploring the bond market for day-trading as it offers different personality and behavior look at previous blog post here ) 

 

 

  • Fed Ends QE While Keeping ‘Considerable Time’ Low-Rate Pledge

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    From bloomberg.com

    Read Full Story at bloomberg.com

    The Federal Reserve confirmed it will end an asset-purchase program that has added $1.66 trillion to its balance sheet and maintained a pledge to keep interest rates low for a “considerable time.” “Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in a statement in Washington. “A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutiliza tion of labor resources is gradually diminishing,” the panel said, modifying earlier language that “there remains signifi cant underutilization of labor resources.” Policy makers said that while … (full story)

FOMC Interest Rate Decision due 10.29.2014 at 14:00 ET & Economic Reports

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

The FOMC interest rate decision is due at 14:00 ET in the US tomorrow ( Wednesday, October 29th ).

 

FOMC days have different characteristics than other trading days. If you have traded for a while, check your trading notes from past FOMC days that may help you prepare for tomorrow.

 

I have shared this same post before more than a few times but I do encourage you to read and try to implement as I think tomorrow’s meeting may be even more volatile than the last few. 

 

if you are a newcomer, take a more conservative approach and make sure you understand that the news can really move the market.

 

The following are suggestions on trading during FOMC days: Continue reading “FOMC Interest Rate Decision due 10.29.2014 at 14:00 ET & Economic Reports”

FOMC Facts, Futures Levels & Economic Reports 10.28.2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

Two pointers I picked from an email service from factset.com that are worthy in looking ahead this week, as we will have FOMC statement this Wednesday:

 

Earnings metrics improve:

  • According to FactSet, the blended growth rate for Q3 S&P 500 EPS pushed up to 5.6% this week from 5.1% at the end of last week and 4.6% at the end of the quarter. In addition, of the 208 companies that have now reported results for Q3, 75% have beat consensus EPS expectations. This is up from 68% last week and ahead of the 73% four-quarter average. In the aggregate, companies are reporting EPS 3.8% ahead of the Street, slightly better than the 3.6% four-quarter average. As was the case last week, some of the better takeaways came from cyclical names where sentiment has been fairly depressed. MMM +8.1% reported a high-quality, margin-driven earnings beat and slightly raised the midpoint of F14 guidance. ITW +5.5% reported its best organic growth since 2011. Europe held up better and the company raised full-year guidance. HVAC leveraged plays like LII +15.1% and WSO +8.6% were some of the post-earnings standouts. UPS +3.4% had some upbeat commentary on the peak holiday shipping season. Outlook commentary following strong results from UNP +7.7% was also positive. Results and guidance from the airline sector also highlighted a still favorable domestic demand backdrop. Continue reading “FOMC Facts, Futures Levels & Economic Reports 10.28.2014”

Is the Wheat rally real or just a short covering bounce? & Levels 10.24.2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

Is the Wheat rally real or just a short covering bounce?

Along with the rest of the grain complex and many other commodities, the wheat market has taken a serious beating, declining from $7.64 in May to $4.66 in late September! That is a very serious drop in price (close to 40%!!) in a short period of time.

 

In recent weeks, the wheat market has bounced almost $0.60 from its lows and the big question longer term traders, as well as swing traders, are asking themselves, is the following: Is this just a chance to go short again or is this the beginning of a reversal to the upside.

Continue reading “Is the Wheat rally real or just a short covering bounce? & Levels 10.24.2014”

Weekly Futures Crude Number, Economic Reports & Levels 10-23-2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

Weekly crude numbers for WTI from EIA  for  28 years .

Wealth of information  for review if you are a crude oil/ energy trader!

 

  http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rwtc&f=w

 

Trading myopothy blinds many traders so from time to time it is important to step back, take a deep breath and look at the price action from longer time frames” The action to the downside in the Crude oil market has been nothing short of breathtaking. ….

the longer term view(s) can illustrate ( on this chart supplied by U.S. Energy Information Administration).  That deeper sell offs and more volatile market moves could continue for some time .

Weekly chart for your review below:

 

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Continue reading “Weekly Futures Crude Number, Economic Reports & Levels 10-23-2014”

Recognizing Different Types of Trading Days & Levels 10.22.2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

Are we done? Was this the correction everyone was afraid of and that’s it?

Only the future can tell but interesting to look at the daily chart below of the mini SP 500. We bounced OVER 100 points from the lows!!! But I still need to see if we can break above the 1946 level marked on the chart….

 

Another interesting point is that this rally is on much lower volume than the sell off, but then again this has been the story in the “minor corrections” we had during the last several years.

 

Not sure if this one is any different and we are heading back to test new highs…my “emotions/gut” says this one has a bigger chance of being a more serious correction than the ones we have seen before but my “trading brain” says that statistically odds are in favor of resumption in the rally…

Continue reading “Recognizing Different Types of Trading Days & Levels 10.22.2014”

Monday Futures Market Recap, Economic Reports & Levels 10.21.2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: The Correction That Wasn’t

From Our Friends at: www.TradeTheNews.comMarket volatility reached epic levels this week. By Wednesday afternoon, the S&P500 had given up than 4% on the week after a series of unfortunate events hammered risk assets, drove liquidation and raised fear the dreaded correction had arrived. However most of the gap was filled in the second half of the week as the soothing possibility of more central bank easing emerged. On Wednesday, the withdrawal of Ireland’s exotic tax avoidance laws, which inspired AbbVie to cancel its $54 billion merger with Shire, slammed many US hedge funds that were long Shire in an arbitrage trade. The same day, talk that the Greek anti-euro, anti-bailout opposition had strengthened its influence drove a massive sell-off in European peripheral debt, further hurting many US hedge funds that were long the instruments. On top of that the Ebola scare reached a fever pitch with false alarms across the US, though only one additional case was confirmed. The combined effect was risk asset liquidation, driving the VIX index above 30 for the first time in nearly two years. Commenting on Wednesday’s market action, Goldman Sachs’ CFO said investors were “shooting first and asking questions later.” Then on Thursday, the ECB said it would adjust haircuts on bonds used as collateral for loans to Greek banks and Fed Governor Bullard said the FOMC should consider delaying the end of the QE taper this month to help stem the slide in inflation expectations. Both announcements helped propel a move higher, aided by some better US data late in the week and a round of mostly solid earnings reports. Continue reading “Monday Futures Market Recap, Economic Reports & Levels 10.21.2014”

Moves in the Futures Indices, Crude Oil & Gold, Economic Reports & Levels 10.16.2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 I may sound like I keep repeating myself but make sure you are adapting to the different market conditions we are seeing compared to a month ago or so.

There is much higher volatility, speed of price change and wider ranges.

Moves today in bonds, S&P, Russell, Crude, Gold and many other markets were very sharp, fast and powerful. This obviously presents both risks and opportunities but for newcomers – mostly risk.

This is a good day to keep notes on in your journal. What caused the price action? What type of “bands” did the market have? How did you do as a trader? What can you do better and learn from for the next “Wild, crazy” day which may even happen tomorrow?

 

The biggest advice I can give on days like today is to make sure you don’t lose it….make sure you know what your daily loss limit is and step away if it gets triggered. This is one of those days where I have seen traders blow their whole account up…..So just make sure you live to trade another day!

 

Continue reading “Moves in the Futures Indices, Crude Oil & Gold, Economic Reports & Levels 10.16.2014”

Economic Reports & Levels 10.14.2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

 

I may sound like a broken record but make sure you are adapting to the different market conditions we are seeing compare to a  month ago or so.

Much higher volatility, speed of price change and wider ranges.

I wrote the following outlook for ForexMagnates.com and sharing it with you as well, again it is just one man’s opinion….mine:

 

Did AliBaba Mark Stock Market Highs??

 

Many people have commented about the stock market run of the last few years, its widely perceived “Quantitative Easing” connection, and much more. Some of these people are smarter and more knowledgeable than me when it comes to economics but then again, sometimes the stock market does not react to economics, intuitive correlations, or “brains” but does what it wants to do…..

If you were one of the bulls who bought any significant correction in the past 5-6 years you would have done well, as QE just fueled the stock market into new highs.

To me the big question is: Does this represent the highs for the next few years?

Statistically the right answer is no. There is a higher probability that stocks will recover and make new highs than the chance that this may be the high for the next few months/ few years.

 

However, in my opinion, there is a much larger room for profits on the downside than there is going long at these levels, especially considering that the FED is unwinding QE.

 

Read the rest along with charts at:

http://experts.forexmagnates.com/did-alibaba-mark-stock-market-highs/