Iran, Crude Oil, NFP PLUS: 4th of July Trading Hours, Futures 102, Options 303 – Short Straddle, September Midwest Wheat Spread, CannonEdge Snapshot, Levels, Reports; What YOU Need to Know Before Trading Futures the Week of June 29th, 2026

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1296

  • The Week Ahead – Earnings, NFP, Iran + Crude Oil

  • 4th of July Trading Hours

  • Futures 102 – The Daily Briefing – What the Pros Know Before Trading

  • Options 303: Short Straddle

  • Chicago Wheat/ KC Wheat Spread Chart & Outlook

  • Cannon Edge – Your Futures trading Map for the week ahead!

  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

At A Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Aug (#GC)

3951.73 4018.77 4065.13 4132.17 4178.53

Silver (SI)

— July. (#SI)

54.60 56.94 58.47 60.81 62.34

Crude Oil (CL)

— Aug (#CL)

66.64 68.02 69.94 71.32 73.24

 Sept. Bonds (ZB)

— Sept. (#ZB)

113 10/32 113 22/32 114 114 12/32 114 22/32

What Futures Traders Should Watch This Week

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

oil

The Week Ahead

The key futures market news for next week’s shorten trading week focuses on US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report released ahead of the holiday (Thursday a.m.). Note: Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 90,000, with the unemployment rate projected at 4.5%., Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Wednesday. Friday early closings in observance of Independence Day please check the attached calendar for your favorite market operating times.

Is the smoke clearing in the Mid-East and the markets have a renewed sense of confidence?

The energy and metals are swirling in the uncertainty of a lack of resolution in the attempted unwinding of the Iranian nuclear program.

Don’t let your guard down just yet, the fog continues, tune into the Sunday evening markets to witness reactions to the weekend news streams, manufactured or true.

Plan your trade and trade your plan!

Earnings Next Week:

·        Mon. AeroVironment

·        Tue. Nike, Constellation Brands

·        Wed. General Mills

·        Thu. Unifirst, National Beverage

·        Fri.   Quiet

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)

·        Mon. Quiet

·        Tues. Quiet

·        Wed. 8:00 am Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

·        Thu.  Quiet

·        Fri.   Quiet

Econ Data:

·        Mon. Dallas Fed,,   

·        Tue.  Redbook,  Case/Shiller, Chicago PMI, JOLTS, Consumer confidence, Quarterly Grain Stocks

·              API Crude Stock Change

·        Wed. ADP, EIA Crude stock Change, S&P PMI, ISM numbers,

·        Thu. NFP, Initial Jobless claims, Factory orders  EIA Nat Gas Stocks, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

·        Fri. 4th of July Markets on this 3rd of July no U.S. Data releases.

Get a daily market edge—support & resistance levels plus key market-moving insights.

4th of July Modified trading Schedule

As we approach Independence Day, we’re reminded of the remarkable history and spirit that define the United States.

This year is especially meaningful as the nation celebrates its 250th anniversary—marking two and a half centuries of resilience, innovation, and freedom since the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

It’s a moment to reflect on that legacy while enjoying time with family, friends, and community. In observance of the holiday, please see our updated hours below.

MODIFIED HOURS

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In previous Newsletters, we provided you with definitions and examples of Long Option Straddles, and short option straddles. Today I want to show you the Short Option straddle with an always in the market futures position, this is a technique we use in a relatively new trading program we are offering called “AIM” Always In the Market.

The option strategy compliments futures contracts in Micro Crude oil, Micro E-mini Nasdaq, Micro E-mini S&P 500 and the U.S. 30 yr bond contract using a swing trading protocol for the futures and a short option straddle placed weekly.

Please contact your broker Please contact your broker, if you are a current client or call us to learn more about this opportunity.

Options Workshop 303:

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

A short option straddle combined with an open futures position is basically a way to collect option premium while modifying the risk profile of your futures trade. The exact effect depends on whether your futures position is long or short.

A short straddle means you:

  • Sell a call option
  • Sell a put option
  • Same futures contract (underlying), same strike price, same expiration

You receive premium upfront, but you take on the obligation:

  • If futures rise a lot → the short call loses
  • If futures fall a lot → the short put loses
  • You benefit if futures stay near the strike

Example: You are already long futures

Suppose:

  • Long 1 crude oil futures at $75
  • Sell a $75 call for $2
  • Sell a $75 put for $2

You collect $4 premium.

Your position is now:

Long futures + short straddle

If crude goes to $75 at expiration:

  • Futures: $0 gain/loss
  • Call expires worthless: +$2
  • Put expires worthless: +$2

Total: +$4

This is the ideal outcome: the market stays flat.

If crude goes to $85:

  • Futures: +$10
  • Short call: -$10
  • Short put: $0
  • Premium: +$4

Net:

+$4

The short call caps some of your upside, because your long futures gain offsets the call loss.

If crude goes to $65:

  • Futures: -$10
  • Short put: -$10
  • Short call: $0
  • Premium: +$4

Net:

-$16

This is the danger: the short put adds downside exposure on top of your losing futures position.

So:

Long futures + short straddle = you are basically betting the market will stay stable, but you have extra downside risk.

If you are short futures

Now reverse it:

  • Short futures
  • Sell call
  • Sell put

Example:

Short crude at $75, collect $4 premium.

At expiration:

Market at $75

  • Futures: 0
  • Options: +$4
  • = +$4

Market at $65

  • Futures: +$10
  • Short put: -$10
  • = +$4

Market at $85

  • Futures: -$10
  • Short call: -$10
  • = -$16

So:

Short futures + short straddle = downside is somewhat protected by the short futures, but a big rally hurts badly.

Why would someone do this?

Common reasons:

  1. Income generation

  • Collect option premium
  • Works if volatility collapses and futures stay range-bound
  1. Turn a directional futures position into a range trade

  • Long futures alone = bullish
  • Long futures + short straddle = “bullish but expecting little movement”
  1. Hedge existing futures exposure

  • But it is not a traditional hedge because you are adding short option risk

The key risk

A short straddle has unlimited risk:

  • Short call → unlimited loss if futures explode higher
  • Short put → large loss if futures crash

The futures position can offset one side, but it usually makes the other side worse.

A useful way to think about it:

  • Long futures + short straddle = short volatility + long price bias
  • Short futures + short straddle = short volatility + short price bias

The trade is mostly a bet that futures will not move much before expiration.

Where “reverse the futures” comes in

A trader may manage this by saying:

“If the market moves strongly against me, I will reverse the futures position.”

Example:

Start:

  • Long futures
  • Short straddle

Market drops through 4,900.

You decide the move is real, so you:

  • Sell your long futures
  • Go short futures

Now you have:

  • Short futures
  • Short put
  • Short call

Your delta has flipped.

If the market keeps falling:

Short futures gains may offset the short put losses.

Example:

Market continues from 4,900 → 4,700.

Short futures:

+200

Short put:

-300

Net:

-100

Instead of the original -300 futures loss + -300 put loss.

Why traders do this

This strategy is sometimes called:

  • short straddle with futures adjustment
  • delta hedging
  • gamma scalping (if actively managed)
  • short volatility trading

The idea:

  • Sell expensive implied volatility
  • Collect premium decay (theta)
  • Adjust futures exposure as the market moves

You are betting:

“The market will not make a large move faster than I can adjust.”

The major risk

Short straddles have negative gamma:

  • Small moves are manageable
  • Big moves accelerate losses

The futures reversal helps, but timing matters. If the market gaps overnight, moves violently, or liquidity disappears, the adjustment may come too late.

A useful way to think about the position:

Market behavior

Result

Stays flat

Best outcome

Slowly trends

Manageable with futures adjustments

Violent move

Dangerous

Gap move

Highest risk

So, the futures position is not a “hedge” in the traditional sense — it is a dynamic directional adjustment tool that changes the straddle’s exposure as the market moves.

Cannon has a product that trades this strategy called AIM “Always in the Market” call us to learn more.

 

Futures 102: The Daily Briefing by Cannon

Every morning, the world’s biggest banks and macro strategists publish where markets are headed. The rest of the world waits for the headline.

That intelligence stays locked inside trading desks, institutional terminals, and private client portals — accessible only to the few who pay for the privilege, and even they only get what they pay for.

This briefing changes that (100% FREE on Cannon’s website!!). Every morning we scour the open web and aggregate everything that matters — pulling from publicly available sources so you never have to — and distill it into one clear, readable edition you can get through before your first coffee is finished.

No terminals. No subscriptions. No private portals. Just everything the market is saying, gathered in one place, every morning before the bell.

Read the Latest Briefing HERE and make sure to Bookmark this page!

September KC – Chicago Wheat Spread

 

The September KC – Chicago Wheat Spread is threatening to break down and resume its slide. New sustained lows would project a possible move to the second downside PriceCount objective to the 15.5 area.

Some professional futures traders prefer trading spreads—both intraday and swing—because spreads can reduce outright market risk while still offering opportunities for consistent returns. By trading the price relationship between two related contracts rather than a single direction, traders can benefit from relative value inefficiencies, seasonal patterns, and supply-demand imbalances. Intraday spread trading often provides smoother price action and tighter risk control, while swing trading spreads can capitalize on longer-term structural trends with lower volatility compared to outright positions. Additionally, spreads typically require lower margin and can be less sensitive to macro shocks, making them an appealing strategy for disciplined risk management and more stable performance.

 

That being said – spread trading is risky just like futures trading and past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

In today’s chart review, you will see an idea/ outlook of a swing trade between the Chicago Wheat and Kansas City wheat.

 

Some INTRA day traders will day trade gold vs silver, MNQ versus MES, ten years vs the 30 years and more….

 

Curious?

 

Learn more here or even better schedule a one on one consultation with a licensed series 3 broker HERE

 

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

FREE TRIAL TO QT MARKET Center – Access to analysis, tools, news & Much more!

Highly recommended for HEDGERS!

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Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Insight for the Next Trading Day! Cannon Edge for June 29th 2026

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Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

  • Current price and daily % change
  • 30‑day and 52‑week highs/lows
  • PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals
  • Coverage across equity indices, metals, energies, currencies, and ags

Whether you’re scanning for breakout setups, trend reversals, or just staying informed — Cannon Edge puts the data in your hands before the open.

Built for speed. Backed by insight. Powered by CQG.

Would you like to get weekly updates on real-time, results of Automated trading systems ?

Daily Levels for June 29th, 2026

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Futures Options Basics PLUS: The Week Ahead – NFP, Earnings, Middle East Smoke Clearing? Crypto Cup – $50,000 Total Prizes!! Futures 102 – The Daily Briefing – What the Pros Know Before Trading, June Emini S&P, CannonEdge Snapshot, Levels, Reports; Your 8 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows before Trading Futures the Week of June 1st, 2026

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1291

  • The Week Ahead – NFP, Earnings, Middle East Smoke Clearing?

  • Crypto Cup – $50,000 Total Prizes!!

  • Futures 102 – The Daily Briefing – What the Pros Know Before Trading

  • July Soymeal Chart & Outlook

  • Cannon Edge – Your Futures trading Map for the week ahead!

  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

At A Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— June (#GC)

4467.07 4522.23 4574.67 4629.83 4682.27

Silver (SI)

— July. (#SI)

73.75 74.82 75.89 76.97 78.04

Crude Oil (CL)

— July. (#CL)

85.16 86.63 87.83 89.30 90.50

 Sept. Bonds (ZB)

— Sept. (#ZB)

111  29/32 112 6/32 112 13/32 112 22/32 112 29/32

What Futures Traders Should Watch This Week

Options

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

The Week Ahead

Non-Farm Payrolls Friday! With a few earnings, economic reports and fed speakers thrown in.

Under the Bull or Bear category for our clients who would care to better understand how options can complement your trading; I’ve put together a cheat sheet, please contact your broker to discuss the characteristics and how you can incorporate options into your existing strategy.

options

 

Futures Options Basics

Futures options (also called options on futures) are derivative contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to enter into a futures contract at a specific price (the strike) by a certain date (expiration).

1. Quick Refresher: What is a Futures Contract?

  • A futures contract is a standardized agreement to buy or sell an underlying asset (commodities, stock indexes, interest rates, currencies, etc.) at a predetermined price on a future date.
  • Futures are marked-to-market daily and usually cash-settled or physically delivered.
  • They are traded on exchanges like CME, ICE, etc.

2. What is an Option on a Futures?

Instead of trading the futures itself, you trade an option whose underlying is a futures contract.

  • Call Option on Futures: Gives the buyer the right to go long (buy) the underlying futures contract at the strike price.
  • Put Option on Futures: Gives the buyer the right to go short (sell) the underlying futures contract at the strike price.

When you exercise (or the option is auto-exercised at expiration if in-the-money), you don’t get the physical commodity or cash directly — you get a position in the futures contract at the strike price, plus any variation margin.

3. Key Terms

Term

Meaning

Premium

The price you pay to buy the option (quoted in points/ticks, just like the futures).

Strike Price

The price at which you can enter the futures if you exercise.

Expiration

Options on futures typically expire a few days/weeks before the underlying futures contract expires.

In-the-Money (ITM)

Call: Futures price > Strike Put: Futures price < Strike

At-the-Money (ATM)

Futures price ≈ Strike

Out-of-the-Money (OTM)

Opposite of ITM

American vs European

Most futures options are American (can be exercised any time before expiration).

4. How Settlement Works (Important Difference from Stock Options)

  • If exercised, the call buyer receives a long futures position at the strike.
  • The put buyer receives a short futures position at the strike.
  • The option seller takes the opposite futures position.
  • Because futures are marked-to-market daily, the account is immediately credited/debited the difference between the strike and current futures price.

Example:

  • Crude oil futures are trading at $75.
  • You buy a $72 Call for $2.50 premium.
  • At expiration, crude oil futures are at $78.
  • The call is worth $6 intrinsically ($78 – $72).
  • You can exercise → you get a long futures position marked at $72 while the market is $78 → your account is credited $6 immediately.

5. Payoff at Expiration (Simplified)

  • Long Call: Max(0, Futures Price – Strike) – Premium
  • Long Put: Max(0, Strike – Futures Price) – Premium
  • Limited risk (only the premium), unlimited potential gain (like stock options).

6. Major Advantages of Futures Options

  • High leverage with defined risk.
  • Often lower margin requirements than trading the outright futures.
  • Very liquid markets for major contracts (S&P 500 / ES, Crude Oil / CL, Gold, 10-Year Treasuries, etc.).
  • No stock borrowing issues or hard-to-borrow fees.
  • Tax treatment in many jurisdictions (60/40 rule in the US for Section 1256 contracts).

7. Risks

  • Time decay (theta) — options lose value as expiration approaches.
  • Volatility changes (vega).
  • You can lose 100% of the premium.
  • Futures themselves are highly leveraged — so even though option risk is limited, the underlying moves can be large.

8. Simple Real-World Example (as of 2025 knowledge)

  • E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) trading at 5,800.
  • You expect a rally before expiration → Buy the 5,850 Call for 45 points ($1,125 per contract, since $50 × 45).
  • If ES rallies to 5,950 by expiration → intrinsic value = 100 points → nice profit.
  • If ES drops to 5,700 → option expires worthless → you lose only the $1,125 premium.

We can trade either side of the market and prepare for volatility. On Monday, reach out to your broker for trading ideas. Bull or Bear, you really shouldn’t care.

Is the smoke clearing in the Mid-East and the markets have a renewed sense of confidence?

The energy and metals are swirling in the uncertainty of a lack of resolution in the attempted unwinding of the Iranian nuclear program.

Don’t let your guard down just yet, the fog continues, tune into the Sunday evening markets to witness reactions to the weekend news streams, manufactured or true.

  Plan your trade and trade your plan!

Earnings Next Week:

·        Mon. HP,

·        Tue. PaloAlto Networks, Dollar General

·        Wed. Broadcom, Crowdstrike, Macy’s

·        Thu. Ciena

·        Fri.   Quiet

 

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)

·        Mon. Quiet

·        Tues.  7:30am Hammack

·        Wed. 8:00am Barr, 3:00 pm Logan

·        Thu.  12:10pm Daly

·        Fri.   Quiet

Econ Data:

·        Mon. ISM PMI

·        Tue.   Redbook, JOLTS, API Crude Stock Change

·        Wed. ADP Employment Change Weekly, Factory Orders, EIA Crude stock Change

·        Thu.  Initial Jobless claims, EIA Nat Gas Stocks 9:30 am CDT,

·        Fri. Non-Farm Payrolls,  Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

As a Cannon Trading client OR prospect, you’re invited to compete in the

Great Summer Escape Trading Competition featuring Coinbase Derivatives futures contracts!

From June 22 – July 2, trade in a simulated environment and compete for your share of $50,000 in prizes

Contracts include:

·    Etherium: Ether, nano Ether, nano Ether Perp-Style

·    Bitcoin: Bitcoin, nano Bitcoin, nano Bitcoin Perp-Style

·    Solana: Solana, nano Solana, nano Solana Perp-Style

·    XRP: XRP, nano XRP, nano XRP Perp-Style

Sign Up Now!

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Futures 102: The Daily Briefing by Cannon

Every morning, the world’s biggest banks and macro strategists publish where markets are headed. The rest of the world waits for the headline.

That intelligence stays locked inside trading desks, institutional terminals, and private client portals — accessible only to the few who pay for the privilege, and even they only get what they pay for.

This briefing changes that (100% FREE on Cannon’s website!!). Every morning we scour the open web and aggregate everything that matters — pulling from publicly available sources so you never have to — and distill it into one clear, readable edition you can get through before your first coffee is finished.

No terminals. No subscriptions. No private portals. Just everything the market is saying, gathered in one place, every morning before the bell.

Read the Latest Briefing HERE and make sure to Bookmark this page!

June Emini S&P

The June Emini S&P satisfied its second upside PriceCount objective where it would be normal to get a near term reaction in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. At this point, IF the chart can sustain further strength, the third could project a possible run to the 8720 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

FREE TRIAL TO QT MARKET Center – Access to analysis, tools, news & much more!

Highly recommended for HEDGERS!

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Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Insight for the Next Trading Day! Cannon Edge for June 1st, 2026

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Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

  • Current price and daily % change

  • 30‑day and 52‑week highs/lows

  • PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals

  • Coverage across equity indices, metals, energies, currencies, and ags

Whether you’re scanning for breakout setups, trend reversals, or just staying informed — Cannon Edge puts the data in your hands before the open.

Built for speed. Backed by insight. Powered by CQG.

Would you like to get weekly updates on real-time, results of systems mentioned above?

Daily Levels for June 1st, 2026

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Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?

Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Technical Analysis Weekly Market Update PLUS: CannonEdge Snapshot, How to Place a Trading Stop on CannonX VIDEO, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows For Trading Futures on April 28th, 2026

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At A Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— June (#GC)

4642.40 4668.20 4707.00 4732.80 4771.60

Silver (SI)

— May. (#SI)

74.08 75.02 76.06 77.01 78.05

Crude Oil (CL)

— June. (#CL)

93.14 94.77 96.22 97.85 99.30

 June Bonds (ZB)

— June. (#ZB)

113 7/32 113 15/32 113 24/32 114 114 9/32

Technical Analysis Weekly Market Update

market

By Eli Levy, Senior Analyst

Trend is up. Earnings are good. Breadth is improving. The technicals are clean. The Fed is on hold. And yet I keep coming back to the same point I made last week: chasing all-time highs with this much event risk on the calendar is not for the faint of heart. The setup is constructive — I am not arguing with it — but the path of least resistance for at least one of these next-week events is a sharp, headline-driven reversal.

The market has been forgiving lately; that does not mean it always will be.

If you are long, ride the trend, but keep your stops where they belong and do not let a winning week become a losing month by sizing up into earnings. If you are flat, your edge this week is patience — let the FOMC and the hyperscalers print, then pick your spot.

If you are short, you have been wrong for four weeks and now the chart is wrong too. Perhaps reassess.

Volatility is still the trade of 2026.

That has not changed. What has changed is that we are now grinding higher inside that volatility regime instead of selling off. Respect the tape.

See review of many charts from different segments along with key levels to watch and market direction HERE.

How to Place a Trailing Stop on CannonX
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Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot for April 28th

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Daily Levels for April 28th, 2026

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

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Options on Futures vs. Outright Futures Contracts PLUS: June 10 Year Bonds, CannonEdge Snapshot, Market Briefing, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on March 25th, 2026

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Why Trade Options on Futures Rather Than Outright Futures Contracts?

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— April (#GC)

4243.17 4324.23 4387.37 4468.43 4531.57

Silver (SI)

— May. (#SI)

64.24 66.98 68.86 71.61 73.49

Crude Oil (CL)

— April. (#CL)

86.38 89.11 91.24 93.97 96.10

 June Bonds (ZB)

— June. (#ZB)

111 13/32 111 31/32 112 20/32 113 6/32 113 27/32

Why Trade Options on Futures Rather Than Outright Futures Contracts?

options on futures

Trading options on futures instead of trading futures outright comes down to risk control, flexibility, and strategy choice. They’re related instruments, but they behave very differently.

Here’s the real trade-off:

 1. Defined risk vs. open-ended risk

  • Futures (outright):
  • Your gains and losses move dollar-for-dollar with the market. Losses can be unlimited if the market moves hard against you.
  • Options on futures:
  • If you buy an option, your max loss is just the premium you paid. That’s it.

 This is the biggest reason many traders prefer options—you can’t blow up as easily.

 2. Direction vs. probability

  • Futures:
  • You need to be right on direction and timing.
  • Options:
  • You can structure trades where you don’t need to be perfectly right:
  • Profit if market goes up, down, or even sideways
  • Use spreads to define a range of success

 Options let you trade probabilities, not just direction.

⚙️ 3. Strategy flexibility

With futures, you basically have:

  • Long
  • Short

With options on futures, you unlock:

  • Spreads (verticals, calendars)
  • Income strategies (selling premium)
  • Hedging positions
  • Volatility trades

 You’re trading not just price, but also:

  • Time (theta)
  • Volatility (vega)

 4. Capital efficiency (sometimes)

  • Futures require margin, which can still be substantial and fluctuate.
  • Options often require less upfront capital (especially defined-risk spreads).

But note:

  • Selling options can still require significant margin.

5. Hedging ability

Options on futures are widely used by:

  • Farmers (commodities)
  • Energy companies
  • Institutional players

Example:

  • A producer can buy puts to protect downside while keeping upside.

 You can hedge without giving up opportunity.

Curious to learn more?

We’re excited to share that our daily content is evolving. Instead of the traditional blog format, we’re rolling out a more advanced Morning Market Brief—a streamlined, data‑rich update published every trading day and linked directly from our homepage. This new brief delivers everything active traders rely on: key levels, economic reports, market movers, and much more, all in one fast, easy‑to‑read snapshot. We encourage you to start visiting the Morning Brief each day to stay ahead of the markets and make the most of the tools we provide.

You can see the latest brief here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-march24-readers-1

Cannon Edge for March 25th

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Introducing Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot Above

Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

  • Current price and daily % change

  • 30‑day and 52‑week highs/lows

  • PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals

June 10 years Bonds

The June 10 Year Treasury Bonds have broken down into a new contract low where the chart is taking aim at its first downside PriceCount objective to the 110^02 area.

FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for March 25th, 2026

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Zero-DTE Options: Pros v. Cons, January Lumber, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important, Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on November 18th, 2025

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Zero-DTE Options

by Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3950.57 3995.13 4051.37 4095.93 4152.17

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

48.38 49.17 50.14 50.94 51.91

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

58.65 58.18 59.74 60.27 60.83

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

116 116 11/32 116 22/32 117 1/32 117 12/32

zero-dte

Zero-DTE Options: Leveraging CME Liquidity in Volatile Markets

Recent volatility and sharp intraday swings in stock index futures and metals have created unique opportunities for active traders – possibly as an alternative for using futures with a stop loss. One increasingly popular tool for navigating these conditions is Zero-DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options, available on CME Group’s deep and liquid markets.

What Are Zero-DTE Options?

Zero-DTE options are contracts that expire on the same day they are traded. CME Group offers same-day expiring options on major benchmarks like E-mini S\&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and key metals futures. These instruments allow traders to capitalize on short-term price action while avoiding overnight risk.

Advantages of Using CME Zero-DTE Options

  • Access to Benchmark Liquidity: CME Group provides unmatched liquidity in index and metals options, ensuring efficient execution even during volatile sessions.
  • Defined Risk Profiles for LONG options: LONG Options allow traders to manage exposure with clear maximum loss, unlike outright futures positions.
  • Strategic Flexibility: Ideal for intraday hedging, directional plays, or advanced strategies like spreads and iron condors.
  • Capital Efficiency: Lower upfront cost compared to futures, with margin benefits when combined with CME futures positions.

Key Considerations

  • Rapid Time Decay: With only hours to expiration, options lose value quickly if the market doesn’t move as anticipated.
  • Gamma Sensitivity: Price changes in the underlying can lead to significant swings in option value.
  • Execution Discipline: Liquidity is strong, but spreads can widen near expiration—precision matters.
  • Risk Management: Fast-moving markets require a clear plan and strict controls.

Consult with a Broker

Zero-DTE options on CME Group products can be powerful tools for active traders, but they require knowledge and discipline. Our experienced brokers can help you evaluate strategies, manage risk, and take full advantage of CME’s liquidity and product depth. Contact us today to learn more.

✅ Schedule a one on one No Obligation Broker Consultation

January Lumber

January Lumber is completing the third downside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. At this point, IF the chart can sustain another leg down, we are left with the low percentage fourth count to aim for in the 454 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Nov. 18th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Option Greeks, December Corn, Levels, REPORTS!!!! Your 4 Important, Can’t Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on November 14th, 2025

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Option Greeks – Self Guided Online Course

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

4089.10 4131.20 4190.60 4232.70 4292.10

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

50.48 51.41 52.91 53.84 55.34

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

57.58 58.12 58.67 59.21 59.76

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

116 13/32 116 22/32 117 6/32 117 15/32 117 31/32

Option Greeks

option

Course Overview

Option prices are driven by multiple variables including changes in the underlying price, interest rates, passage of time, and changes in the expected volatility in the market. Collectively, these are called “the Greeks” because the symbols used to represent the sensitivities of these complex derivatives come from calculus and use the Greek Alphabet. Gain a basic understanding of how “the Greeks” are integral to managing a portfolio of options.

START COURSE

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December Corn

December corn resumed its rally with a breakout above recent highs, the extended downtrend, and the 200 dma. This has the chart taking aim at its third upside PriceCount objective to the $4.47 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Nov. 14th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Options on Futures, NEW Options WEBINAR WEDNESDAY, 2026 Bean to Corn Ratio, Levels; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on November 11th, 2025

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Master Options on Futures — Your Edge Starts Here

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3941.53 3965.37 3997.03 4020.87 4052.53

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

46.76 47.31 47.96 48.52 49.17

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

57.95 58.76 59.63 60.44 61.31

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

115 31/32 116 20/32 117 1/32 117 22/32 118 3/32

Master Options on Futures — Your Edge Starts Here

options on futures

Unlocking the Power of Options on Futures: A Smarter Way to Trade

Date & Time:

November 12, 2025

11:30 AM PT

Are you ready to trade smarter, not harder? Join CME Group’s Ryan Gorman for an exclusive, fast‑paced webinar that will show you how to harness the unique advantages of Options on Futures—combining the leverage of futures with the defined risk of options.

In just one session, you’ll learn how to:

  • ✅ Understand how options on futures are priced and settled
  • ✅ Apply core strategies like calls and puts for speculation
  • ✅ Generate income with tactics such as covered calls
  • ✅ Hedge your portfolio and express market views with precision

Whether you’re focused on commodities, indices, or currencies, this webinar delivers actionable insights you can use immediately to sharpen your trading edge.

Seats are limited — reserve your spot today and take the next step toward smarter futures trading.

Register Now – Space is Limited!

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New Crop 2026 Bean to Corn Ratio

“The new crop bean to corn ratio came under pressure after completing the first upside PriceCount objective. Now the chart has recovered and is poised for a challenge of the August high. At this point, new sustained highs would project a run to the 2.48 area. Fundamentally, ratios higher than 2.5 traditionally favor soybean planting economically, while ratios lower than 2.5 tend to favor corn planting.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Nov. 11th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Second Interest Rate Cut, December Cotton, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Critical Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 30th, 2025

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What You Need to Know Before Trading Futures Tomorrow!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3861.93 3910.07 3978.13 4026.27 4094.33

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

46.01 46.69 47.60 48.28 49.19

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

59.02 59.67 60.34 60.99 61.66

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

117 7/32 117 20/32 118 13/32 118 26/32 119 19/32

interest

Interest Rates

It wasn’t even apparent during Chair Jerome Powell’s post-announcement news conference what triggered the price jolts in several of the futures markets this afternoon – including a ±50-point decline in the E-mini S&P 500 and a ±200-point decline in the E-mini Nasdaq in the span of eight minutes, or the ±$40 sell-off in gold in the span of two minutes.

Regardless of the cause, they served as the latest real-world examples of why it’s so important for traders of all types to assess the risks of their trades – before you enter into them – and have a plan to manage that risk. Day traders and position traders alike should be aware of important planned events – just like FOMC announcements and press conferences – and anticipate the potential risks to those events (these days it’s wise to include occasions when the U.S. president speaks, considering his ongoing involvement and influence in global trade relations).

These events certainly create opportunities for traders – outsize moves can also result in outsize favorable outcomes – but the most important aspect to trading – is always to manage risk.

General – Interest Rates:

Day 29 of the U.S Government shut-down, now the second-longest on record.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point today – its second consecutive rate cut, lowering the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, its lowest level in three years.

Stock Index Futures:

We’re amidst earning season for the third quarter. Moving into full swing, all eyes were on Microsoft, Google-parent Alphabet and Facebook-owner Meta today– all releasing their latest earnings results after the closing bell.

Tomorrow:

Apple and Amazon

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December Cotton

December cotton violated its contract low this month but for now was unable to sustain the break towards the low percentage drawn downside PriceCount objective near 57 cents not shown here for presentation purposes. The new chart has activated upside counts on the correction higher and is quickly approaching the first objective to the 66.27 area. To achieve any additional upside targets, we will first have to break out above the long-term downtrend

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 30th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Gov’t Shutdown Continues, Impact on Traders’ Reports, Blackout & Volatility, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 22nd, 2025

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Govt. Shut Down & Commitment of Traders Reports

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 3903 4013.60 4203.60 4314.20 4504.20
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 44.35 46.08 48.85 50.57 53.34
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 55.56 56.49 57.29 58.22 59.02
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46578 46865 47100 47387 47622

shutdown

Current 2025 Government Shutdown:

As of October 21, 2025, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown (which began October 1) has suspended COT reports since the last release covering data up to September 23.

Weekly Released Commitment of Traders

Weekly released Commitment of Traders reports from the CFTC provide transparency into the positioning of various trader groups (such as speculators, hedgers, and commercial participants) in futures and options markets.

Risk of Delay/Absence

When these reports are delayed or absent—typically due to events like government shutdowns or external disruptions—it creates a data vacuum that can amplify uncertainty among traders.

Threat of Insight Void

This lack of insight into market sentiment and positioning often leads to increased speculative activity, herding behavior, and potential overreactions, ultimately contributing to higher volatility in futures markets.

Blackout

This blackout has left commodity futures traders “flying blind,” relying on alternative indicators like open interest changes, ETF flows, and futures curve shapes to infer speculative trends. The absence amplifies risks of speculative crowding—where positions build excessively without oversight—potentially leading to sharper price reversals when reports resume.

Volatility

Overall market volatility has shown mixed effects: implied volatility has ticked up slightly due to uncertainty, but in some areas like bonds, it has actually decreased from a lack of data. Agricultural futures have been hit harder, with disruptions to USDA data releases causing supply chain delays and emotional, rumor-driven trading that heightens volatility

 Instant Viewing/Download: Commitment of Traders Report – How to Use?

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December Oats

December oats met the low percentage fourth downside PriceCount objective to the 2.85 area which suggests we may have come far enough to satisfy this phase of the bear move. At this point, if the chart can extend the recovery with two closes above the 3.015 October high, we would activate upside counts.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 22nd, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Overnight Edge, December Mini Dow, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 21st, 2025

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Where is the Edge?

edge

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 4173.40 4285.40 4341.70 4453.70 4510.00
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 49.49 50.65 51.24 52.40 52.99
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 55.32 56.16 56.79 57.63 58.26
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46087 46503 46733 47149 47379

Over the past few months, and especially in recent weeks, we’ve seen unusually large overnight moves. Some moves appear random, others reverse quickly, and some are driven by headlines such as tariff news. These dynamics have increased gap risk, reduced overnight liquidity, and produced frequent open-time dislocations.

Common question

Where is the edge?

Short answer

  • Trade the first 30 minutes and focus on short-term gap-fill or rejection setups.
  • Use same-day options when you expect a large directional move to limit tail risk and avoid being stopped out only to see the market move in your favor.
  • Trade spreads when relative strength diverges across instruments (for example, gold vs silver or mini-Dow vs ES).

Extended answer

I want to focus on the practical elements of trading like pre-market context, move behavior, market news correlation, liquidity, options limits, and whether to use mean reversion or momentum. I’ll also want to highlight key parts like risk management, stop placement, and position sizing. Planning should be direct with a simple checklist and no more than six sections. I should also consider using a relevant citation about tariff-related movements, but just one, and make sure it’s only placed where necessary. No framing or extra explanations.

Futures day-trading edge

You find edge by matching a repeatable hypothesis to the current market regime, then executing it with strict risk and execution rules.

Regime diagnosis (what the market is doing now)

  • Volatility regime: large overnight gaps and erratic premarket prints mean the market is in a news-driven, headline-sensitive volatility regime.
  • Catalyst profile: moves are often tied to macro headlines and tariff noise; those headlines create directional gaps that either persist into the session or sharply reverse at the open.
  • Liquidity profile: overnight liquidity is thin and fragmented, increasing slippage and fake outs at the open.

Reliable, tradeable edges you can use

  • Pre-open directional bias with size filter. Trade opens when overnight gap exceeds a threshold (e.g., 0.5% or X ticks) and pre-market order flow confirms (sustained prints, not one-off sweep).
  • Use reduced size and wider stops for gaps caused by headline noise.
  • Fade headline gap into first 30 minutes when structure is weakIf gap lacks follow-through volume and price fails to make a clean microstructure breakout, favor mean reversion to the first-tail or VWAP.
  • Trend-follow breakouts in high conviction regimeWhen overnight move is accompanied by aligned macro flow (rates, FX, commodities) and volume ramps into the open, follow momentum with a continuation plan.
  • Volatility arbitrage playsUse options or calendar spreads where available to sell realized volatility after spikes and buy protection around known headline windows.
  • Session-timing edgeTrade smaller and tighter in the first 15–30 minutes after the open; increase size after the market establishes structure (first clean high/low and confirmation).
  • Microstructure edge: limit vs market tacticsUse passive limit entries near structural levels and aggressive exits into liquidity. Avoid market entries into thin pre-open auction prints.

Concrete execution rules (checklist)

  • Pre-market checklist: identify gap size, top 3 headlines, correlated markets (bonds, FX, oil), and pre-open volume trend.
  • Entry rules: require either structural confirmation (higher high / lower low) or a mean-reversion setup with defined edge-to-risk ratio ≥ 2:1.
  • Sizing: reduce notional by 25–50% on headline-driven nights; increase only after two clean consecutive edges are realized.
  • Stops and targets: place stop where edge invalidates (clearly definable price level); scale out at predefined targets; never trade without a stop.
  • Slippage buffer: add tick buffer to stops and profit targets during thin liquidity opens.

How to test and keep the edge

  • Backtest regime-specific rules: label historical sessions by overnight gap size and headline events, test mean-reversion vs momentum rules separately.
  • Forward-test with small capital: run a two-week rolling simulator and log slippage, win rate, and expectancy.
  • Adaptive rules: codify a volatility threshold that switches you between momentum and fade strategies automatically.

Brief trade plan template

  • Hypothesis: (e.g., “Overnight tariff headline caused a 0.7% gap that lacks confirmatory volume; first 20 minutes will mean-revert to VWAP.”)
  • Entry: limit at VWAP + X ticks or on 1-minute reversal candle.
  • Stop: invalidation beyond the overnight high/low + slippage buffer.
  • Target: partial at VWAP, final at first structure level.
  • Size: 50% normal when gap driver = headline; full size only when macro alignment confirmed.

Be systematic: diagnose regime, pick the strategy that historically wins in that regime, enforce execution and risk rules, and iterate from measured data.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.  

The recommendations contained in this blog are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.  

Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

December Mini DOW

The December mini DJIA chart satisfied its second upside PriceCount objective earlier this month and corrected lower. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a possible run to the 52041 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 21st, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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