The Week Ahead – FOMC rate decision, September contract rollover (U26), the short option straddle strategy used in Cannon Trading’s AIM program PLUS: Crypto Cup – $50,000 Total Prizes!! Futures 102 – The Daily Briefing – What the Pros Know Before Trading, November Soybeans Chart & Outlook, CannonEdge Snapshot, Levels, Reports; Your 9 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures the Week of June 15th, 2026

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1293

  • The Week Ahead – Next week features the FOMC rate decision, September contract rollover (U26), and a look at the short option straddle strategy used in Cannon Trading’s AIM program.

  • Crypto Cup – $50,000 Total Prizes!!

  • Futures 102 – The Daily Briefing – What The Pros Know Before Trading

  • November Soybeans Chart & Outlook

  • Cannon Edge – Your Futures trading Map for the week ahead!

  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

At A Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Aug (#GC)

4153.70 4193.00 4230.40 4269.70 4307.10

Silver (SI)

— July. (#SI)

65.00 66.51 67.48 68.99 69.96

Crude Oil (CL)

— July. (#CL)

80.90 82.64 84.93 86.67 88.96

 Sept. Bonds (ZB)

— Sept. (#ZB)

111 18/32 111 31/32 112 16/32 112 29/32 113 14/32

What Futures Traders Should Watch This Week

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

The Week Ahead

fomc

The key futures market news for next week focuses on FOMC rate decision, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference 30 minutes later. It’s Equity Index Rollover Monday! September=U26 is the front month! Begin trading the U26 contracts. It is the next month and year designation.

Here is a quick Youtube Video on how to change your contract on CannonX (cqg StoneX)  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzeOgBa5HwA . 

Additionally, due to the national Juneteenth Holiday next week falling on a Friday, The June quarterly expiration will fall on Thursday this month. Some markets will have abbreviated hours June 19th, look for our holiday schedule.

In last week’s newsletter, we provided you with definitions and examples of Long Option Straddles, Today I want to show you the Short Option straddle, this is a technique we use in a relatively new trading program we are offering called “AIM” Always in the Market.

The option strategy compliments futures contracts in Micro Crude oil, Micro E-mini Nasdaq, Micro E-mini S&P 500 and the U.S. 30 yr bond contract using a swing trading protocol. Please contact your broker, if you are a current client or call us to learn more about this opportunity.

Options Workshop 202:

A short volatility option Structure:

A futures option short straddle is an options strategy where you sell (write) both a call option and a put option on the same futures contract, with:

  • The same strike price

  • The same expiration date

You collect premiums from both options upfront and profit if the underlying futures price stays close to the strike price until expiration.

Example

Suppose a Crude Oil Futures contract is trading at $70.

You sell:

  • 1 call option with a $70 strike
  • 1 put option with a $70 strike

Assume you receive:

  • $1.50 for the call
  • $1.20 for the put

Total premium collected = $2.70

Profit and Loss

Maximum Profit

Your maximum profit is the total premium received:

$2.70 per unit

This occurs if the futures price is exactly at the strike price ($70) at expiration, causing both options to expire worthless.

Break-even Points

  • Upper break-even: $70 + $2.70 = $72.70
  • Lower break-even: $70 − $2.70 = $67.30

Loss Potential

Losses occur if the futures price moves significantly above or below the strike.

Examples:

  • If futures settle at $80, the short call loses about $10, partially offset by the $2.70 premium.
  • If futures settle at $60, the short put loses about $10, partially offset by the premium.

The downside and upside losses can be very large, making this a high-risk strategy.

Why Traders Use It

A short straddle is typically used when a trader believes:

  • Volatility is overpriced.
  • The futures market will remain relatively stable.
  • Actual price movement will be smaller than what option prices imply.

In other words, it’s generally a short-volatility trade.

Futures Options vs. Stock Options

With futures options:

  • The underlying asset is a futures contract rather than a stock.
  • If exercised, the option generally creates a futures position.
  • Margin requirements and risk management differ from stock options.

Risk Profile

Profit

^

|

Max Profit = Premium Collected

|      /\

|     / \

|    /   \

–+—-/——\—————-> Futures Price

BE     BE

|

 | Unlimited loss potential

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A short straddle is considered an advanced strategy because it involves selling volatility with potentially large losses if the futures market makes a strong move in either direction.

Is the smoke clearing in the Mid-East and the markets have a renewed sense of confidence?

The energy and metals are swirling in the uncertainty of a lack of resolution in the attempted unwinding of the Iranian nuclear program.

Don’t let your guard down just yet, the fog continues, tune into the Sunday evening markets to witness reactions to the weekend news streams, manufactured or true.

Plan your trade and trade your plan!

Earnings Next Week:

·       Mon. Quiet

·       Tue. La-Z-Boy

·       Wed. Jabil Circuit, Carmax

·       Thu. Kroger, Methode Electronics

·       Fri.   Quiet

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)

·       Mon. Quiet

·       Tues. 8 day blackout period

·       Wed. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Public FOMC Press Conference

·       Thu.  Quiet

·       Fri.   Quiet

Econ Data:

·      Mon. Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, NAHB Housing Index,   

·      Tue.  Building Permits, Housing Starts, NY Fed Svcs.,  Redbook,

·            API Crude Stock Change

·      Wed. Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude stock Change, Fed. Rate Decision, Economic Projections

·      Thu. Initial Jobless claims, Philly Fed., CB Leading Index,  EIA Nat Gas Stocks, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

·      Fri. Juneteenth, therefor no U.S. Data releases.

Get a daily market edge—support & resistance levels plus key market-moving insights.

As a Cannon Trading client OR prospect, you’re invited to compete in the Great Summer Escape Trading Competition featuring Coinbase Derivatives futures contracts!

From June 22 – July 2, trade in a simulated environment and compete for your share of $50,000 in prizes.

Contracts include:

·    Ethereum: Ether, nano Ether, nano Ether Perp-Style

·    Bitcoin: Bitcoin, nano Bitcoin, nano Bitcoin Perp-Style

·    Solana: Solana, nano Solana, nano Solana Perp-Style

·    XRP: XRP, nano XRP, nano XRP Perp-Style

Sign Up Now!

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Futures 102: The Daily Briefing by Cannon

Every morning, the world’s biggest banks and macro strategists publish where markets are headed. The rest of the world waits for the headline.

That intelligence stays locked inside trading desks, institutional terminals, and private client portals — accessible only to the few who pay for the privilege, and even they only get what they pay for.

This briefing changes that ( 100% FREE on Cannon’s website!!). Every morning we scour the open web and aggregate everything that matters — pulling from publicly available sources so you never have to — and distill it into one clear, readable edition you can get through before your first coffee is finished.

No terminals. No subscriptions. No private portals. Just everything the market is saying, gathered in one place, every morning before the bell.

Read the Latest Briefing HERE and make sure to Bookmark this page!

November Soybeans

November beans completed the first downside PriceCount objective and is correcting with a near term consolidation. If the chart can resume its break with new sustainable lows, the second count would project a possible slide to the $11.05 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

FREE TRIAL TO QT MARKET Center – Access to analysis, tools, news & Much more!

Highly recommended for HEDGERS!

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Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Insight for the Next Trading Day! Cannon Edge for June 15th 2026

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Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

  • Current price and daily % change

  • 30‑day and 52‑week highs/lows

  • PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals

  • Coverage across equity indices, metals, energies, currencies, and ags

Whether you’re scanning for breakout setups, trend reversals, or just staying informed — Cannon Edge puts the data in your hands before the open.

Built for speed. Backed by insight. Powered by CQG.

Would you like to get weekly updates on real-time, results of systems mentioned above?

Daily Levels for June 15th 2026

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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November Soybeans PLUS: CannonEdge Snapshot, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 11th, 2026

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At A Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Aug (#GC)

3969.57 4035.63 4158.37 4224.43 4347.17

Silver (SI)

— July. (#SI)

61.89 62.81 64.35 65.82 66.82

Crude Oil (CL)

— July. (#CL)

85.65 88.35 90.10 92.80 94.55

 Sept. Bonds (ZB)

— Sept. (#ZB)

110 27/32 111 6/32 111 19/32 111 30/32 112 11/32

Soybeans

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November Soybeans

November beans completed the first downside PriceCount objective and is correcting with a near term consolidation. If the chart can resume its break with new sustained lows, the second count would project a possible slide to the $11.05 area.

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That’s November Soybeans!

soybean

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot for June 11th

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Daily Levels for June 11th, 2026

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Selling Options in Times of Extreme Volatility PLUS: July Bean Oil, CannonEdge Snapshot, Pre-Market Briefing NEW DAILY PODCAST, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on April 22nd, 2026

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Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— June (#GC)

4576.97 4637.13 4745.97 4806.13 4914.97

Silver (SI)

— May. (#SI)

72.36 74.02 77.20 78.87 82.05

Crude Oil (CL)

— June. (#CL)

83.08 87.38 89.81 94.11 96.54

 June Bonds (ZB)

— June. (#ZB)

113 5/32 113 18/32 114 6/32 114 19/32 115 7/32

Selling Options in Times of Extreme Volatility

options

In periods of extreme volatility, option sellers often enjoy unusually rich premiums — but those same conditions can turn a routine credit trade into a landmine if the market overshoots. That’s why disciplined premium sellers treat protection not as a cost, but as insurance.

Buying a cheap out‑of‑the‑money “disaster wing” or long‑dated hedge can dramatically reduce tail risk while still preserving most of the credit collected. In fast markets, the goal isn’t to squeeze every last tick of premium; it’s to stay in the game.

A small debit for protection can turn a potentially catastrophic move into a manageable one, allowing traders to keep selling premium consistently rather than recovering from a blow‑up.

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July Bean Oil

July SoyBean Oil resumed its rally and established a fresh contract high. This has the chart taking aim at its third upside PriceCount objective to the 72.25 area. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. IF there were to be another leg up to this bull move, it would be significant as the low percentage fourth count would project a run to a new all-time high over 97 cents (current record high was 91.40 from 2022).

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot for April 22nd

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Daily Levels for April 22nd, 2026

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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The Future of Your Favorite Futures Trading Blog PLUS: CannonEdge Snapshot, May Coffee, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on May 26th, 2026

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At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— April (#GC)

4389.43 4463.47 4532.23 4606.27 4675.03

Silver (SI)

— May. (#SI)

69.32 70.82 72.81 74.31 76.30

Crude Oil (CL)

— April. (#CL)

84.53 87.87 89.80 93.14 95.07

 June Bonds (ZB)

— June. (#ZB)

112 21/32 113 4/32 113 15/32 113 30/32 114 9/32

Our Daily Futures Blog Is Moving! — and It’s Better Than Ever

futures

We’re expanding our daily commentary into a comprehensive futures intelligence briefing, delivering deeper insights, actionable trading levels, key economic reports, and institutional‑grade market analysis.

 Visit our homepage, scroll to the Daily Briefing, and access the full futures trading report every trading day by 9:00 AM EST.

See location below and soon we will share a link to bookmark!

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Cannon Edge for March 26th

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Introducing Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot Above

Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

  • Current price and daily % change

  • 30‑day and 52‑week highs/lows

  • PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals

May Coffee

May Coffee stabilized its break after completing the second downside PriceCount objective last month. Now, the chart has activated upside counts and satisfied the first objective on the recovery. If we can sustain further strength, the second count would project a possible run to the 336.20 area.

FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for March 26th, 2026

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Second Interest Rate Cut, December Cotton, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Critical Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 30th, 2025

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What You Need to Know Before Trading Futures Tomorrow!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3861.93 3910.07 3978.13 4026.27 4094.33

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

46.01 46.69 47.60 48.28 49.19

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

59.02 59.67 60.34 60.99 61.66

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

117 7/32 117 20/32 118 13/32 118 26/32 119 19/32

interest

Interest Rates

It wasn’t even apparent during Chair Jerome Powell’s post-announcement news conference what triggered the price jolts in several of the futures markets this afternoon – including a ±50-point decline in the E-mini S&P 500 and a ±200-point decline in the E-mini Nasdaq in the span of eight minutes, or the ±$40 sell-off in gold in the span of two minutes.

Regardless of the cause, they served as the latest real-world examples of why it’s so important for traders of all types to assess the risks of their trades – before you enter into them – and have a plan to manage that risk. Day traders and position traders alike should be aware of important planned events – just like FOMC announcements and press conferences – and anticipate the potential risks to those events (these days it’s wise to include occasions when the U.S. president speaks, considering his ongoing involvement and influence in global trade relations).

These events certainly create opportunities for traders – outsize moves can also result in outsize favorable outcomes – but the most important aspect to trading – is always to manage risk.

General – Interest Rates:

Day 29 of the U.S Government shut-down, now the second-longest on record.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point today – its second consecutive rate cut, lowering the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, its lowest level in three years.

Stock Index Futures:

We’re amidst earning season for the third quarter. Moving into full swing, all eyes were on Microsoft, Google-parent Alphabet and Facebook-owner Meta today– all releasing their latest earnings results after the closing bell.

Tomorrow:

Apple and Amazon

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December Cotton

December cotton violated its contract low this month but for now was unable to sustain the break towards the low percentage drawn downside PriceCount objective near 57 cents not shown here for presentation purposes. The new chart has activated upside counts on the correction higher and is quickly approaching the first objective to the 66.27 area. To achieve any additional upside targets, we will first have to break out above the long-term downtrend

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 30th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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FOMC Tomorrow, December Live Cattle, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 29th, 2025

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FOMC Tomorrow

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3837.43 3906.47 3970.33 4039.37 4103.23

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

44.83 46.01 46.69 47.88 48.56

Crude Oil (CL)

— Nov (CLX5)

58.65 59.28 60.39 61.02 62.13

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

118 18/32 118 27/32 119 1/32 119 10/32 119 16/32
fomc
 

October 29th, Tomorrow, is the 96th anniversary (seems like the term “anniversary” should be celebratory rather than marking a day of dread for the nation) Black Tuesday: when the US Stock Market crashes, ending the Great Bull Market of the 1920s and eventually contributing to the Great Depression. While we don’t expect this current Great Bull Market will crash tomorrow, yet anytime soon, it is not a novel idea to manage risk, it’s imperative.

Tomorrow is also the release of the expected 2nd to last in a series of Fed Rate cuts while Chairman Jerome Powell will read a statement and will avail himself to the Press Corps. Expectations are for .25 reduction to the 3.75-4.00 range. Although surprises do occur, the only surprise tomorrow would be in the language used to massage future rate cuts, rather than the cut itself. Big Earnings after the close tomorrow as Microsoft, Google and Meta.

Previously in this blog I have included some option strategies, for both high volatility markets and low volatility markets. Measures of volatility are important to understand more holistically your risk management requirements when implementing your option strategy. I am including some basic definitions of the “Greeks” used to measure the impact of volatility on Option Premiums. In trading futures options, they help traders assess risk and manage their portfolios. Below are the definitions of the primary Greeks, tailored to futures options:

·        Delta: Measures the rate of change in an option’s price for a $1 change in the underlying futures contract’s price. It ranges from 0 to 1 for calls and -1 to 0 for puts. For example, a delta of 0.5 means the option’s price moves $0.50 for every $1 move in the futures price. Delta also approximates the probability the option will expire in-the-money.

·        Gamma: Measures the rate of change in delta for a $1 change in the underlying futures price. It reflects the acceleration of the option’s price movement. High gamma indicates delta is highly sensitive to price changes, which is common for at-the-money options near expiration.

·        Theta: Measures the rate of change in an option’s price due to the passage of time, often called time decay. It’s typically negative, as options lose value as expiration approaches. For example, a theta of -0.05 means the option loses $0.05 per day, all else equal.

·        Vega: Measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to a 1% change in the implied volatility of the underlying futures contract. For example, a Vega of 0.10 means the option’s price increases by $0.10 if implied volatility rises by 1%. Vega is higher for longer-dated options.

·        Rho: Measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to a 1% change in interest rates. For futures options, Rho is often less significant due to typically short maturities and stable interest rates, but it still indicates how much the option price changes with shifts in the risk-free rate.

These Greeks are critical for understanding how factors like price movements, time, volatility, and interest rates impact futures options pricing and risk. If you’d like, I can dive deeper into any specific Greek or provide examples of their application in trading strategies.

 Instant Viewing/Download: Commitment of Traders Report – How to Use?

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December Live Cattle

The rally in December live cattle lost its momentum this month and activated downside PriceCount objectives on the correction lower. The break accelerated to its third count to the 224.50 area where it appears we may try to stabilize for a moment, at least. At this point, IF the chart can sustain further weakness, the low percentage fourth count would project a possible move to the 200.00 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 29th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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January Beans, Why Many Traders Lose Money Trading Futures (WITH CAN’T MISS VIDEO!!!!), Levels, Reports; Your 4 Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 28th, 2025

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Where is the Edge?

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 3900.53 3953.07 4038.43 4090.97 4176.33
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 44.59 45.67 47.13 48.21 49.67
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 59.92 60.68 61.42 62.18 62.92
 Dec. Bonds (ZB) 117 15/32 118 6/32 118 17/32 119 8/32 119 19/32

beans

Why do Many Traders Lose Money Trading Futures? See presentation below!

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January Soybeans

January beans gapped higher and the chart is accelerating to its second upside PriceCount objective to the $10.92 area. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. IF you can sustain further strength, the third count would project a possible run to the $11.30 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 28th, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

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All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Overnight Edge, December Mini Dow, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 21st, 2025

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Where is the Edge?

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At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 4173.40 4285.40 4341.70 4453.70 4510.00
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 49.49 50.65 51.24 52.40 52.99
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 55.32 56.16 56.79 57.63 58.26
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46087 46503 46733 47149 47379

Over the past few months, and especially in recent weeks, we’ve seen unusually large overnight moves. Some moves appear random, others reverse quickly, and some are driven by headlines such as tariff news. These dynamics have increased gap risk, reduced overnight liquidity, and produced frequent open-time dislocations.

Common question

Where is the edge?

Short answer

  • Trade the first 30 minutes and focus on short-term gap-fill or rejection setups.
  • Use same-day options when you expect a large directional move to limit tail risk and avoid being stopped out only to see the market move in your favor.
  • Trade spreads when relative strength diverges across instruments (for example, gold vs silver or mini-Dow vs ES).

Extended answer

I want to focus on the practical elements of trading like pre-market context, move behavior, market news correlation, liquidity, options limits, and whether to use mean reversion or momentum. I’ll also want to highlight key parts like risk management, stop placement, and position sizing. Planning should be direct with a simple checklist and no more than six sections. I should also consider using a relevant citation about tariff-related movements, but just one, and make sure it’s only placed where necessary. No framing or extra explanations.

Futures day-trading edge

You find edge by matching a repeatable hypothesis to the current market regime, then executing it with strict risk and execution rules.

Regime diagnosis (what the market is doing now)

  • Volatility regime: large overnight gaps and erratic premarket prints mean the market is in a news-driven, headline-sensitive volatility regime.
  • Catalyst profile: moves are often tied to macro headlines and tariff noise; those headlines create directional gaps that either persist into the session or sharply reverse at the open.
  • Liquidity profile: overnight liquidity is thin and fragmented, increasing slippage and fake outs at the open.

Reliable, tradeable edges you can use

  • Pre-open directional bias with size filter. Trade opens when overnight gap exceeds a threshold (e.g., 0.5% or X ticks) and pre-market order flow confirms (sustained prints, not one-off sweep).
  • Use reduced size and wider stops for gaps caused by headline noise.
  • Fade headline gap into first 30 minutes when structure is weakIf gap lacks follow-through volume and price fails to make a clean microstructure breakout, favor mean reversion to the first-tail or VWAP.
  • Trend-follow breakouts in high conviction regimeWhen overnight move is accompanied by aligned macro flow (rates, FX, commodities) and volume ramps into the open, follow momentum with a continuation plan.
  • Volatility arbitrage playsUse options or calendar spreads where available to sell realized volatility after spikes and buy protection around known headline windows.
  • Session-timing edgeTrade smaller and tighter in the first 15–30 minutes after the open; increase size after the market establishes structure (first clean high/low and confirmation).
  • Microstructure edge: limit vs market tacticsUse passive limit entries near structural levels and aggressive exits into liquidity. Avoid market entries into thin pre-open auction prints.

Concrete execution rules (checklist)

  • Pre-market checklist: identify gap size, top 3 headlines, correlated markets (bonds, FX, oil), and pre-open volume trend.
  • Entry rules: require either structural confirmation (higher high / lower low) or a mean-reversion setup with defined edge-to-risk ratio ≥ 2:1.
  • Sizing: reduce notional by 25–50% on headline-driven nights; increase only after two clean consecutive edges are realized.
  • Stops and targets: place stop where edge invalidates (clearly definable price level); scale out at predefined targets; never trade without a stop.
  • Slippage buffer: add tick buffer to stops and profit targets during thin liquidity opens.

How to test and keep the edge

  • Backtest regime-specific rules: label historical sessions by overnight gap size and headline events, test mean-reversion vs momentum rules separately.
  • Forward-test with small capital: run a two-week rolling simulator and log slippage, win rate, and expectancy.
  • Adaptive rules: codify a volatility threshold that switches you between momentum and fade strategies automatically.

Brief trade plan template

  • Hypothesis: (e.g., “Overnight tariff headline caused a 0.7% gap that lacks confirmatory volume; first 20 minutes will mean-revert to VWAP.”)
  • Entry: limit at VWAP + X ticks or on 1-minute reversal candle.
  • Stop: invalidation beyond the overnight high/low + slippage buffer.
  • Target: partial at VWAP, final at first structure level.
  • Size: 50% normal when gap driver = headline; full size only when macro alignment confirmed.

Be systematic: diagnose regime, pick the strategy that historically wins in that regime, enforce execution and risk rules, and iterate from measured data.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.  

The recommendations contained in this blog are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.  

Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

December Mini DOW

The December mini DJIA chart satisfied its second upside PriceCount objective earlier this month and corrected lower. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a possible run to the 52041 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 21st, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

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All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Price Extremes: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil; December KC Wheat, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 16th, 2025

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Price Extremes

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

price

General:

Day 15 of the U.S Government shutdown.

Stock Index Futures:

Dec. stock index futures returned to solid gains late today as markets remained alert over US-China trade tensions and amid hopes for interest rate cuts and strong quarterly earnings results from Wall Street banks. Traders have cemented bets on a rate cut later this month, and odds of a rate cut in December have jumped in recent days to around 96% according to the CME Group FedWatch tool:

Prices Metals:

It’s the broken record metals report. Dec. gold futures rose to new all-time highs today – its 47th new record of the year – trading up to $4,235.80/ounce intraday.

Alongside gold, Dec. silver rocketed up nearly $2.00/oz. today to set its own all-time record high, trading intraday up to $52.55/ounce. This after yesterday when the contract took out a 45-year-old record closing price of $48.70/ounce, during the time when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.

Prices Energies:

November crude oil futures have remained on their lows this week – with a new multi-month intraday low of $58.20/barrel on continued concerns about oversupply and the possible impact on demand of rekindled U.S.-China trade tensions – its fourth day in a row closing below $60/barrel.

Livestock:

Dec. live cattle and Jan. feeder cattle both closed little changed today and within pennies of their own all-time record high closing prices at the close of trading yesterday. Tight supplies and strong feeder markets pushed cash cattle higher and the futures markets followed suit. The supply of cattle has lingered at a near 75-year low, with the closure of the US-Mexico border to Mexican cattle imports further constraining an already tight supply.

December KC Wheat

December KC wheat satisfied its third downside PriceCount objective and reacted with a key reversal higher. It would be normal to get a mean reversion from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective phase, at least. If the chart can sustain further weakness, we are left with the low percentage fourth count to aim for in the $4.37 area. That we trade down to this level is a realistic target although we have traded that low just 5 years ago.
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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 16th, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

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All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Volatility Tuesday! All-time Highs on Gold, December Cocoa, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 14th, 2025

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Volatility – New All Time High on Gold!

volatility

The last few trading sessions we saw tremendous volatility across many markets.

What we witnessed last night and during today’s session reminded me of the markets when COVID first broke out and we saw limit moves across the board.

The moves down Friday on equities, metals and other markets and then the HUGE GAP open yesterday on the Sunday afternoon re-open were a bit SCARY to be honest but also present some large potentials as well.

New All-time highs on gold!!

Here are some ideas to explore during times like these:

1.      You don’t have a crystal ball.

To think you can buy an ES contract in this volatility and use a 2 point stop in hopes of making 20 points profit is a very low probability event…you would need to buy it at the PEREFECT time for this to happen. Point is, with higher volatility you need to use WIDER stops to give yourself a chance. That may mean using SMALLER trade size.

2.      If you are able to,

share your read with another trader,

it may provide you with a better perspective just by sharing.

3.      If you think there is room for a big move or what we call a “runner” –

be prepared to for the pullbacks.

Use multiple time frames to gain a better perspective and hang in there for the big move, if this is what you think can happen.

4.      If you have enough risk capital, try to use multiple contracts, example buying 2 rather than 1. Taking profit on the first part of the position will help you relax and look at what the market is really telling you rather than what you would like it to say. It helps reduce both the fear and the greed.

5. “Plan your trade, trade your plan”.

Again, these are just some short pointers, written quickly after today’s session in hopes of helping you when you face a similar situation.

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December Cocoa

December cocoa extended its break into a new low where the chart is satisfying its third downside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. From here, IF the chart can sustain further weakness with another leg down, we are left with the low percentage fourth count to aim for to the 3647 area, consistent with a test of the contract low.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 14th, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

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All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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