Support & Resistance Levels

This Blog provides futures market outlook for different commodities and futures trading markets, mostly stock index futures, as well as support and resistance levels for Crude Oil futures, Gold futures, Euro currency and others. At times the daily trading blog will include educational information about different aspects of commodity and futures trading.

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Essential Tools And Resources For Successful Commodity Trading

Posted on by Ilan

We live today in a world full of digital assets, where goods and services are becoming more and more dominated by commodities that only exist in a virtual way. Even currencies are becoming increasingly digitized, and more and more market upsets are caused by collapses of digital currencies and other intangible assets.

Despite the increasing demand for and prominence of digital assets, the world market remains and will remain a place where materials matter. A physical commodity–whether it’s a barrel of oil, an ingot of iron, or a bale of wool–will never be without value. The same cannot be said for an app or a Bitcoin.

If you are hoping to invest in commodities, you are looking for tangible assets that have real value today and in the future. However, commodity markets are a complex world, and like it or not, buying and selling commodities is a fast-paced process that requires the right combination of access and contacts in order to buy and sell at the best commodity prices.

Successful commodity trading relies heavily on timing and availability; when opportunity knocks your hand needs to already be on the knob. How can you be ready to move physical assets at a moment’s notice?

The answer lies in having access to the right tools.

Starting with an accessible commodity trading platform is paramount, but equally important is staying abreast of the commodities market with an in-depth education on the current and future market prices.

And as you are learning to navigate the many intricacies of commodities trading, it may be wisest for you to include a broker, who operates based on commissions and can provide an excellent failsafe as you negotiate the high-stakes learning curve.

If you think commodity trading is your next step to expand your portfolio and diversify your assets, keep reading to learn what you will need to succeed.

Purchasing Power: Choose the Best Platform for Access to Commodities Markets

let experienced traders help you navigate commodity prices

A century ago, commodities and futures were bought and sold on wharves and in warehouses, with brokers walking among crates and pallets choosing their wares based on local contacts who had need of raw materials.

Fortunately, today, there is no need to find a wharf. Futures and commodities are listed for sale on the world stage and anyone with money can become part of the delicate dance that brings raw materials to manufacturers.

Pick Your Platform: Commodities Trading Platforms Put Commodities Markets In Your Pocket

There are many trading platforms available today, but they are not all created equal. Which platform you choose will depend on your level of experience, your understanding of the world market the specific market of your chosen commodity, and your risk tolerance.

Features: Demystifying the Markets

Commodities trading platforms have a plethora of features. Some may function best as failsafe and training wheels for the new trader, while others are powerful tools that even a seasoned veteran of the markets will appreciate.

Some features are intended only to make futures trading quicker and more convenient. These features include things like single-click trading, the ability to trade multiple accounts, and even automated trading.

Other features aim to help you make the best choices for your investment strategy. These features might include Depth of Market (DOM), streaming real-time data, and risk managers that alert and correct when your trades do not line up with your stated risk tolerance.

The commodity markets become much more transparent and accessible with powerful tools on your side.

Knowledge is Power: Understanding the Commodity Market

As you begin your foray into commodity trading, the commodity market may seem very volatile and unpredictable.

But in fact, like most complex systems, the commodities markets are governed by principles that are predictable and useful for those who take the time to understand them.

Partnering with an experienced trading company will give you access to hundreds of charts, insights, and advisors who can help illuminate the inner workings of this exchange. Whether you are trading commodity stocks, futures contracts, or commodity derivatives, a firm grasp of market principles and the impact of current events on projected prices will be essential for your success.

Delegating: The Power of Letting a Professional Handle Your Commodity Trading

When entering the commodity trading market, you may want to do all your own trades. However, with such a vast and complex market full of unique traded commodities, it may be wise to join forces with experienced traders who can provide much-needed guidance on which trades are likely to lead to success.

A commodity futures trading commission is a small price to pay for the incredible advantage that experienced investors can give you, potentially saving you thousands as they teach and direct you on how to navigate the commodity markets.

The Time is Now: Lock in Commodity Prices and Establish Your Place in the Markets Today

If you believe that your portfolio would benefit from expansion into the commodities market, it may be time to establish a relationship with a commodity trading company that can help you take the next step.

A reputable company can help you to analyze current and future commodity prices, determine your personal risk tolerance, and begin overcoming the challenges that face any newcomer to commodity trading.

Don’t miss out on the opportunities that the commodity market has to offer. Whether you choose to invest in futures contracts, commodity ETFs, or in hard commodities like precious metals or agricultural products, a partnership with a commodity trading company will open the vagaries of the commodity market to your understanding.

Start your journey into the knowledge of this promising sector today.

Key Market Insights: Retail Sales, Home Prices, and Consumer Confidence

Posted on by Ilan
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Movers and shakers!

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Today’s Headlines:

 

Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap

 

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +4.9% in the first three weeks of August 2024 vs August 2023

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +5.0% in the week ending August 24 vs yr ago week

Updated: August 27, 2024 8:01 am

Case Schiller 20 US Metro-Area Home Prices Recap

 

**Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for June Y/Y: +6.5% from the year ago month

**Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for June M/M: +0.6% vs prior month

Updated: August 27, 2024 9:02 am

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Headline Recap

 

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Index: -19.0 ; prior -17.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Shipments Index: -15.0 ; prior -21.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing New Orders: -26.0 ; prior -23.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Employees: -15.0 ; prior -5.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Prices Paid: +2.45 ; prior +3.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Prices Received: +1.87 ; prior +1.31

 

**Richmond Fed August Service Sector Index: -11.0 ; prior +5.0

 

Updated: August 27, 2024 9:02 am

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Present Situation, Expectations Index Headline Recap

 

**Conference Board August Consumer Confidence Index: 103.3 ; prior revised to 101.9 from 100.3 ; expected 100.5

**Conference Board August Consumer Present Situation Index: 134.4 ; prior revised 133.1 from 133.6

**Conference Board August Consumer Expectations Index: 82.5 ; prior revised to 81.1 from 78.2

 

Tomorrows Movers and Shakers

US Mortgage Bankers Assoc (MBA) will update their weekly US market indices at 6:00 am CT Wednesday morning.

Crude Oil inventories at 9:30 Am Central

Quiet Econ Data day

 

 

 

Earnings: NVIDIA, CRM, Crowdstrike after the close

 

 

 

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Daily Levels for August 28th, 2024

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September Mexican Peso

The September Mexican peso corrected after completing the second downside PriceCount objective earlier this month. Now, the chart is threatening to break down again where new sustained lows would project a possible run to the 46.75 area.

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

 

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Hedging with Futures and Speculating with Futures in Futures Trading

Posted on by Ilan

Futures trading is a powerful financial mechanism that plays a crucial role in global markets. It provides market participants with tools to manage risks and seize opportunities in volatile market conditions. The two primary strategies employed by market participants in futures trading are hedging and speculating. Understanding these strategies and their application in the context of futures trading is essential for anyone involved in or considering involvement in the financial markets.

Futures in Futures Trading

What is Futures Trading?

Before delving into the specifics of hedging and speculating, it’s important to understand what futures trading entails. A futures contract is a standardized legal agreement to buy or sell a specific commodity or financial instrument at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. These contracts are traded on futures exchanges and cover a wide range of underlying assets, including commodities (like oil, gold, and wheat), financial instruments (such as interest rates and currencies), and stock indices.

Futures trading involves both the buyer and the seller agreeing to the terms of the contract. However, unlike traditional buying and selling of assets, futures trading often does not result in the physical delivery of the underlying asset. Instead, many traders close their positions before the contract’s expiration, settling the difference between the purchase and sale prices.

Hedging with Futures

Definition and Purpose of Hedging

Hedging with futures is a risk management strategy used by individuals and businesses to protect themselves against adverse price movements in the market. The primary goal of hedging is not to make a profit but to reduce or eliminate the risk of price fluctuations that could negatively impact a company’s financial performance or an investor’s portfolio.

How Hedging Works

Hedging with futures involves taking a position in the futures market that is opposite to one’s current position in the cash market. For example, a wheat farmer expecting to harvest 10,000 bushels of wheat in six months may be concerned about the possibility of falling wheat prices. To hedge this risk, the farmer can sell wheat futures contracts now. If the price of wheat declines, the loss in the cash market (selling the harvested wheat) is offset by gains in the futures market (selling futures contracts at a higher price than the eventual market price).

Types of Hedging Strategies
  1. Short Hedge: This strategy is used by producers or sellers of a commodity who want to protect against the risk of falling prices. They sell futures contracts to lock in a future selling price for their commodity. If prices drop, the losses from selling the actual commodity are offset by the gains in the futures market.
  2. Long Hedge: This is used by buyers who want to protect against rising prices. For instance, a company that needs to purchase raw materials in the future might buy futures contracts now to lock in the current price. If the market price rises, the company benefits from the futures contracts, offsetting the increased cost of purchasing the raw materials.
Advantages of Hedging with Futures
  • Price Protection: Hedging allows businesses to lock in prices, providing certainty and stability in their financial planning.
  • Cost Control: By fixing future costs, companies can better manage their budgets and financial forecasts.
  • Risk Management: Hedging reduces the risk of unfavorable price movements, protecting profit margins.
Disadvantages of Hedging with Futures
  • Opportunity Cost: If the market moves in favor of the hedger, they miss out on potential profits because their position in the futures market offsets gains.
  • Complexity: Hedging requires a good understanding of the market and the ability to accurately predict future price movements. Improper hedging can lead to increased losses.
  • Margin Requirements: Hedging with futures involves margin calls, which require maintaining a certain amount of capital in the trading account. This can tie up funds that could be used elsewhere.
Real-World Examples of Hedging with Futures
  • Agricultural Hedging: A corn farmer concerned about falling corn prices might sell corn futures contracts to hedge against this risk. If corn prices drop, the loss from selling the corn at a lower price is offset by the profit from the futures contracts.
  • Currency Hedging: A U.S. company that expects to receive payment in euros in six months might hedge against the risk of the euro depreciating against the dollar by selling euro futures contracts. If the euro’s value drops, the loss from the currency exchange is offset by the gain in the futures market.

Speculating with Futures

Definition and Purpose of Speculating

Speculating with futures involves buying or selling futures contracts with the goal of making a profit from changes in the price of the underlying asset. Unlike hedging, where the primary objective is risk management, speculating is about taking on risk in the hopes of earning a return. Speculators have no intention of taking delivery of the underlying asset; they are only interested in profiting from price movements.

How Speculating Works

Speculators analyze the market and make predictions about the direction of future price movements. Based on their analysis, they take positions in the futures market:

  • Going Long: A speculator buys futures contracts if they believe the price of the underlying asset will increase. If the price does rise, the speculator can sell the contract at a higher price and profit from the difference.
  • Going Short: Conversely, if a speculator believes the price will decline, they sell futures contracts. If the price falls, they can buy back the contract at a lower price and profit from the difference.
Types of Speculators
  1. Day Traders: These are speculators who hold positions for a very short period, often just minutes or hours. They aim to profit from small price movements and typically close all positions by the end of the trading day.
  2. Swing Traders: These speculators hold positions for several days or weeks, aiming to profit from short-term price trends.
  3. Position Traders: Position traders take longer-term positions, holding contracts for months, based on broader economic or market trends.
Advantages of Speculating with Futures
  • High Leverage: Futures trading offers high leverage, allowing speculators to control large positions with a relatively small amount of capital.
  • Liquidity: Futures markets are highly liquid, meaning that speculators can enter and exit positions easily without significantly impacting the market price.
  • Potential for High Returns: Due to leverage and market volatility, speculators can potentially earn significant returns in a short period.
Disadvantages of Speculating with Futures
  • High Risk: The same leverage that allows for high returns also amplifies losses. Speculators can lose more than their initial investment.
  • Market Volatility: Futures markets can be highly volatile, and prices can change rapidly. This volatility can lead to significant losses if the market moves against a speculator’s position.
  • Complexity and Expertise: Successful speculation requires a deep understanding of the market, technical analysis, and economic factors. It is not suitable for inexperienced traders.
Real-World Examples of Speculating with Futures
  • Commodity Speculation: A speculator might buy crude oil futures if they believe a geopolitical event will cause oil prices to rise. If their prediction is correct, they can sell the contracts at a higher price and make a profit.
  • Stock Index Futures: A speculator who expects the stock market to decline might sell S&P 500 futures contracts. If the market falls, they can buy back the contracts at a lower price and profit from the difference.

Hedging vs. Speculating

Objectives

The primary objective of hedging is risk management. Hedgers use futures contracts to protect themselves from unfavorable price movements in the cash market. In contrast, the main objective of speculating is to profit from price changes. Speculators are willing to take on risk in hopes of earning a return.

Market Participants

Hedgers are typically producers, manufacturers, exporters, or importers who have a direct interest in the underlying asset. For example, a farmer, oil company, or multinational corporation might hedge their exposure to price changes in commodities or currencies. Speculators, on the other hand, include individual traders, hedge funds, and proprietary trading firms that have no interest in the underlying asset but are looking to profit from price fluctuations.

Risk Tolerance

Hedgers are generally risk-averse. Their goal is to reduce risk, not take it on. They use futures contracts to lock in prices and ensure stability in their financial performance. Speculators, however, are risk-takers. They seek out risk because they believe they can profit from it. The potential for high returns comes with the acceptance of high risk.

Time Horizon

Hedging is typically done with a longer-term perspective, as the goal is to protect against price changes that could impact the business or investment over time. For example, a company might hedge its currency exposure for the next six months. Speculators, however, often operate with shorter time horizons, ranging from a few minutes to several months, depending on their trading strategy.

Outcome Expectations

For hedgers, the best outcome is that the hedge effectively reduces or eliminates the risk of adverse price movements. They are not seeking to profit from the hedge itself, but rather to maintain financial stability. Speculators, on the other hand, expect to make a profit from their trades. Their success is measured by the accuracy of their market predictions and their ability to execute trades at the right time.

Hedging with futures and speculating with futures are two fundamental strategies in futures trading, each serving distinct purposes. Hedging is a vital tool for managing risk and ensuring financial stability, particularly for businesses and investors who have direct exposure to the underlying asset. It allows them to protect against adverse price movements and secure predictable financial outcomes. On the other hand, speculating with futures is about taking on risk in pursuit of profit. Speculators play a crucial role in the market by providing liquidity and helping to discover prices, but their activities are driven by the potential for high returns, which also comes with the possibility of significant losses.

Both strategies require a deep understanding of the futures markets, as well as the underlying assets, and they involve careful analysis and decision-making. For those involved in futures trading, whether they are hedging or speculating, the key to success lies in their ability to accurately assess market conditions, manage risk, and execute trades effectively. Futures trading, with its potential for both risk management and profit generation, continues to be an essential component of the global financial system, offering opportunities for a wide range of market participants.

For more information, click here.
Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 (US) or (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

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Gearing Up for Labor Day: Key Reports and Kansas City Wheat Analysis

Posted on by Ilan

Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group!

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our Market Recap Podcasts on Apple Podcasts

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Make it a great trading week ahead!

Labor Day is around the corner…

See reports for the week as well as Kansas City Wheat chart below.

December KC Wheat

December KC wheat resumed its slide into a new low where the chart is satisfying its third downside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

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Daily Levels for August 27th, 2024

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Trading Styles in Futures: Concepts for Futures Traders

Posted on by Ilan

Futures trading is a dynamic and complex field that offers numerous strategies to accommodate different trading styles and objectives. Futures traders must understand the various approaches and tools available to them to make informed decisions and optimize their trading performance. This article provides a detailed exploration of several key trading strategies and concepts in futures trading, including swing trading, momentum trading, calendar spread futures trading, butterfly spread, high-frequency futures trading, crack spread, statistical arbitrage, and the impact of low margin rates on futures trading.

Trading Styles in Futures

1. Swing Trading in Futures

Definition and Overview

Swing trading is a popular trading strategy in the futures market that involves holding positions for several days or even weeks to capitalize on short- to medium-term price movements. Unlike day trading, where positions are closed within the same trading day, swing traders aim to capture the “swings” in the market—short-term price fluctuations caused by market volatility.

How Swing Trading Works

Swing traders typically use technical analysis to identify potential entry and exit points. They look for patterns such as head and shoulders, flags, and triangles to predict price movements. Swing traders may also use indicators like moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to confirm their predictions.

The key to successful swing trading lies in timing. Traders must be able to accurately predict when a trend will start and end, which requires a deep understanding of market dynamics and the ability to interpret chart patterns.

Advantages of Swing Trading
  • Flexibility: Swing trading allows traders to maintain a regular job or pursue other interests because it does not require constant monitoring of the markets.
  • Lower Transaction Costs: Since positions are held for longer periods compared to day trading, swing traders incur fewer transaction costs.
  • Potential for High Returns: By capturing significant price movements, swing traders can achieve substantial returns over time.
Disadvantages of Swing Trading
  • Overnight Risk: Holding positions overnight exposes swing traders to risks from unexpected market events, such as geopolitical developments or economic announcements, that can lead to significant price gaps.
  • Requires Patience: Swing trading requires patience, as traders must wait for the right market conditions to enter and exit trades.
Best Practices for Swing Trading
  • Use Stop-Loss Orders: To manage risk, swing traders should always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.
  • Stay Informed: Swing traders must stay informed about market news and events that could impact their positions.
  • Focus on Liquid Markets: Trading in highly liquid futures markets ensures that positions can be easily entered and exited without significant price slippage.

2. Momentum Trading in Futures

Definition and Overview

Momentum trading is a strategy based on the idea that assets that have been performing well will continue to do so in the near future, while assets that have been underperforming will continue to decline. Momentum traders aim to capitalize on the continuation of existing trends by entering trades in the direction of the momentum.

How Momentum Trading Works

Momentum traders use technical indicators like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Momentum Indicator to identify trends and assess their strength. Once a trend is identified, momentum traders enter positions in the direction of the trend, holding the position until signs of a reversal or a slowdown in momentum appear.

Advantages of Momentum Trading
  • Potential for Quick Profits: Momentum trading can generate quick profits if the trader accurately identifies and capitalizes on strong trends.
  • Clear Entry and Exit Signals: Momentum indicators provide clear signals for entering and exiting trades, making the strategy easier to implement for traders who are skilled in technical analysis.
Disadvantages of Momentum Trading
  • High Risk of Reversals: Momentum trading carries the risk of sudden trend reversals, which can result in significant losses if the trader is not quick to react.
  • Requires Constant Monitoring: Momentum traders need to closely monitor the market to act swiftly when trends begin to reverse.
Best Practices for Momentum Trading
  • Trade in Active Markets: Momentum trading works best in highly active markets where trends are strong and persistent.
  • Use Multiple Indicators: Relying on a combination of momentum indicators can help traders confirm trends and reduce the risk of false signals.
  • Set Tight Stop-Losses: To manage risk, momentum traders should set tight stop-losses to protect against sudden reversals.

3. Calendar Spread Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

Calendar spread futures trading, also known as a time spread or horizontal spread, involves simultaneously buying and selling futures contracts on the same underlying asset but with different expiration dates. This strategy is used to profit from changes in the price difference (spread) between the two contracts.

How Calendar Spread Trading Works

In a calendar spread, the trader typically buys a futures contract with a longer expiration date and sells a futures contract with a shorter expiration date, or vice versa. The idea is to profit from the change in the spread between the two contracts as market conditions evolve. The spread can widen or narrow based on factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, or changes in market sentiment.

Advantages of Calendar Spread Trading
  • Reduced Risk: Calendar spreads generally have lower risk compared to outright futures positions because the trader is exposed to the price difference between the two contracts rather than the full price movement of the underlying asset.
  • Lower Margin Requirements: Because the risk is lower, margin requirements for calendar spreads are typically lower than for outright futures positions.
Disadvantages of Calendar Spread Trading
  • Complexity: Calendar spreads can be more complex to manage than simple long or short futures positions, as traders need to understand the factors that influence the spread.
  • Limited Profit Potential: The profit potential in calendar spread trading is generally lower than in outright futures trading because the price movement of the spread is typically smaller than the movement of the underlying asset.
Best Practices for Calendar Spread Trading
  • Monitor Market Conditions: Traders need to stay informed about market conditions that can affect the spread, such as changes in supply and demand or seasonal trends.
  • Use Technical Analysis: Technical analysis can help traders identify opportunities in calendar spreads by analyzing historical spread patterns.

4. Butterfly Spread in Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

A butterfly spread is a neutral options strategy that combines a bull spread and a bear spread. It involves buying and selling options with three different strike prices but with the same expiration date. In futures trading, a similar strategy can be applied using futures contracts.

How Butterfly Spread Trading Works

A typical butterfly spread in futures trading might involve buying one futures contract at a lower price, selling two contracts at a middle price, and buying one contract at a higher price. The goal is to profit from the price of the underlying asset remaining close to the middle strike price at expiration. The strategy profits if the underlying asset’s price is close to the middle strike price and losses are minimized if the price moves significantly in either direction.

Advantages of Butterfly Spread Trading
  • Limited Risk: The maximum loss is limited to the initial cost of setting up the spread.
  • Potential for High Reward: If the market price ends up near the middle strike price, the potential reward can be high relative to the risk.
Disadvantages of Butterfly Spread Trading
  • Limited Profit Potential: While the risk is limited, so is the profit potential, which is capped by the distance between the middle and outer strike prices.
  • Requires Precise Market Prediction: To profit from a butterfly spread, the trader must accurately predict that the market will remain within a narrow price range.
Best Practices for Butterfly Spread Trading
  • Use in Low Volatility Markets: Butterfly spreads work best in markets where volatility is low and prices are expected to remain stable.
  • Monitor Implied Volatility: Changes in implied volatility can affect the pricing of the options or futures contracts used in the butterfly spread, so traders should keep an eye on volatility levels.

5. High-Frequency Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

High-frequency trading (HFT) is a type of algorithmic trading characterized by the use of powerful computers to execute a large number of orders at extremely high speeds. In futures trading, HFT involves placing and executing orders within fractions of a second to take advantage of small price discrepancies in the market.

How High-Frequency Trading Works

HFT firms use sophisticated algorithms to analyze market data and execute trades at lightning speeds. These algorithms are designed to identify and exploit inefficiencies in the market, such as temporary price discrepancies between different exchanges or financial instruments. The profits per trade are usually very small, but the high volume of trades can result in significant overall profits.

Advantages of High-Frequency Trading
  • High Profit Potential: HFT can generate significant profits due to the sheer volume of trades executed.
  • Market Efficiency: HFT contributes to market efficiency by quickly correcting price discrepancies.
Disadvantages of High-Frequency Trading
  • Requires Advanced Technology: HFT requires significant investment in technology and infrastructure, including powerful computers and high-speed internet connections.
  • High Risk: The high speed and volume of trades mean that small errors in the algorithm can lead to substantial losses.
Best Practices for High-Frequency Trading
  • Develop Robust Algorithms: The success of HFT depends on the quality of the algorithms used, so it’s essential to invest in the development and testing of robust trading algorithms.
  • Monitor Latency: In HFT, even milliseconds can make a difference, so traders need to minimize latency in their trading systems.

6. Crack Spread in Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

The crack spread is a trading strategy used in the energy markets, particularly in oil and gas futures. It involves taking positions in the futures of crude oil and refined products like gasoline and heating oil to profit from the price difference (spread) between crude oil and its refined products.

How Crack Spread Trading Works

A typical crack spread trade involves buying or selling crude oil futures while simultaneously selling or buying futures contracts for refined products. The trader profits from changes in the spread between the price of crude oil and the prices of its refined products. For example, if the price of gasoline increases relative to crude oil, the spread widens, and a trader holding a long crack spread position would profit.

Advantages of Crack Spread Trading
  • Hedge Against Refining Margins: For companies involved in refining, the crack spread can serve as a hedge against fluctuations in refining margins.
  • Speculative Opportunities: Traders can speculate on the future direction of the spread based on factors such as seasonal demand, refinery outages, and changes in crude oil supply.
Disadvantages of Crack Spread Trading
  • Complexity: Understanding the relationship between crude oil and its refined products requires specialized knowledge of the energy markets.
  • Volatility: The crack spread can be highly volatile, leading to significant risks if not managed properly.
Best Practices for Crack Spread Trading
  • Stay Informed About the Energy Markets: Traders need to be aware of factors that can affect the supply and demand for crude oil and refined products, such as geopolitical events, weather patterns, and refinery capacity.
  • Use Risk Management Tools: Given the volatility of the crack spread, it’s essential to use risk management tools like stop-loss orders to protect against adverse price movements.

7. Statistical Arbitrage in Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

Statistical arbitrage (stat arb) is a trading strategy that uses mathematical models to identify and exploit price inefficiencies in the market. In futures trading, statistical arbitrage involves trading pairs or groups of futures contracts that have historically shown a statistical relationship, with the expectation that any deviations from this relationship will eventually revert to the mean.

How Statistical Arbitrage Works

Stat arb traders use historical price data and statistical models to identify pairs of futures contracts that are expected to move together. When the price of one contract deviates from its expected relationship with the other, the trader takes a long position in the undervalued contract and a short position in the overvalued contract. The positions are then held until the prices converge, at which point the trader closes the positions for a profit.

Advantages of Statistical Arbitrage
  • Market Neutrality: Because statistical arbitrage involves taking both long and short positions, it is generally market-neutral, meaning it is less affected by overall market direction.
  • Diversification: Statistical arbitrage strategies can be applied across multiple asset classes, providing opportunities for diversification.
Disadvantages of Statistical Arbitrage
  • Requires Advanced Analytical Skills: Implementing a statistical arbitrage strategy requires a deep understanding of statistical methods and access to large datasets.
  • Execution Risk: The success of statistical arbitrage depends on the accurate execution of trades, and small delays or errors can lead to losses.
Best Practices for Statistical Arbitrage
  • Use Robust Statistical Models: The key to successful stat arb trading is the accuracy of the statistical models used to identify trading opportunities.
  • Continuously Monitor Positions: Market conditions can change rapidly, so it’s important to continuously monitor positions and adjust the strategy as needed.

8. What Low Margin Rates on Futures Means for Your Trading

Definition and Overview

Margin is the amount of money required to open and maintain a futures position. It acts as a good faith deposit to ensure that the trader can cover potential losses. Low margin rates mean that traders need to put up less capital to control a larger position in the futures market.

Impact of Low Margin Rates on Futures Trading

Low margin rates can have a significant impact on futures trading by increasing leverage. With lower margins, traders can control larger positions with a smaller initial investment, which can amplify both potential profits and potential losses.

Advantages of Low Margin Rates
  • Increased Leverage: Lower margin requirements allow traders to leverage their capital more effectively, potentially leading to higher returns on investment.
  • Greater Market Access: Lower margins make futures trading accessible to a wider range of traders, including those with smaller account balances.
Disadvantages of Low Margin Rates
  • Higher Risk: While low margin rates increase potential profits, they also increase the risk of substantial losses. Traders need to be careful not to over-leverage their positions.
  • Margin Calls: If the market moves against a highly leveraged position, traders may face margin calls, requiring them to deposit additional funds or liquidate positions at a loss.
Best Practices for Trading with Low Margin Rates
  • Manage Leverage Carefully: Traders should be cautious about over-leveraging their positions and should always have a clear risk management plan in place.
  • Use Stop-Loss Orders: To protect against large losses, traders should use stop-loss orders to automatically close positions if the market moves against them.

Futures trading offers a wide array of strategies and approaches, each with its own set of advantages and challenges. Whether you are engaging in swing trading, momentum trading, calendar spread trading, or any of the other strategies discussed, it is crucial to have a deep understanding of the market dynamics and to implement effective risk management practices. Additionally, the impact of low margin rates cannot be overstated, as they can significantly influence the risk and return profile of your trading activities.

By mastering these strategies and understanding the underlying concepts, futures traders can better navigate the complexities of the market and increase their chances of success. Each strategy requires a unique set of skills and knowledge, and the choice of strategy should align with the trader’s individual goals, risk tolerance, and market outlook.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 (US) or (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Follow us on all socials: @cannontrading

Standard and Poor’s 500 Futures

Posted on by Ilan

Standard and Poor’s 500 futures, commonly referred to as S&P 500 futures, are financial derivatives that derive their value from the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index itself is a benchmark index composed of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States, representing a broad spectrum of industries. The S&P 500 futures contract is a key tool for investors, traders, and institutions, allowing them to speculate on or hedge against future price movements of the S&P 500 Index.

These futures contracts are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and are among the most actively traded futures contracts in the world. The importance of S&P 500 futures cannot be overstated; they serve as a barometer of market sentiment and are often used to gauge the market’s reaction to economic data, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Futures

The Mechanics of S&P 500 Futures

Contract Specifications

The S&P 500 futures contract (mini) has specific characteristics that traders must understand:

  • Contract Size: The value of the contract is derived by multiplying the S&P 500 Index value by $50. For instance, if the S&P 500 Index is trading at 4,000, the notional value of one futures contract is $200,000 (4,000 x $50).
  • Tick Size: The minimum price movement is 0.25 index points, equivalent to $12.50 per contract.
  • Expiration: S&P 500 futures contracts expire quarterly, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
  • Settlement: The contracts are settled in cash, meaning no physical delivery of assets occurs. Instead, the difference between the contract price and the index level at expiration is paid in cash.

Types of S&P 500 Futures

There are various types of S&P 500 futures contracts:

  1. Standard E-Mini S&P 500 Futures: These are the most commonly traded contracts and are often used by institutional investors.
  2. Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures: An even smaller contract, at one-tenth the size of the E-mini, introduced to provide an affordable option for individual traders.

Role of S&P 500 Futures in the Financial Markets

Hedging and Speculation

S&P 500 futures play a critical role in the financial markets by allowing participants to hedge their positions or speculate on future price movements:

  • Hedging: Investors with significant exposure to U.S. equities use S&P 500 futures to hedge against potential losses. For example, a portfolio manager holding a large position in U.S. stocks might short S&P 500 futures to offset potential declines in the market.
  • Speculation: Traders speculate on the direction of the S&P 500 Index by taking long or short positions in futures contracts. This speculative activity provides liquidity to the market and helps in price discovery.

Market Sentiment Indicator

S&P 500 futures are often seen as a proxy for market sentiment. The futures market operates nearly 24 hours a day, allowing investors to react to events outside of regular trading hours. For example, if S&P 500 futures are trading lower overnight, it might indicate that the market will open down the next day, reflecting negative sentiment.

Geopolitical Events and S&P 500 Futures

The Iranian-Israeli Conflict: A Case Study

The recent escalation in the Iranian-Israeli conflict serves as a pertinent example of how geopolitical events can impact S&P 500 futures. On April 1, Iranian military commanders were killed in an airstrike on its embassy in Damascus, Syria. In retaliation, Iran launched a series of missile and drone attacks on Israel on April 14. Despite the severity of the situation, the initial market reaction was relatively measured, with S&P 500 futures trading up 0.3%.

Historical Context of Geopolitical Events

Historically, geopolitical events have led to modest selloffs in equity markets, followed by a quick recovery. This pattern suggests that while markets react to geopolitical uncertainties, the long-term impact is often limited unless the event significantly disrupts global economic conditions. For instance, during the Yom Kippur War in 1973, the subsequent OPEC oil embargo caused a severe market downturn, but such instances are rare.

Initial Market Reaction

The initial 0.3% uptick in S&P 500 futures following Iran’s attack on Israel could be seen as a relief rally. Investors may have anticipated a more severe escalation, but the measured response from both Iran and Israel, including Iran’s advance warning and Israel’s successful defense, likely mitigated immediate concerns. This reaction underscores the importance of market psychology and investor sentiment in shaping short-term price movements.

Positioning and Portfolio Strategy

In response to the conflict, investment strategy teams have advocated for a slightly defensive posture across portfolios. This approach reflects a cautious stance, acknowledging the potential for further volatility without overreacting to the initial shock. Maintaining such a posture allows investors to manage risk while remaining flexible to adjust their positions as the situation evolves.

The Broader Implications of Geopolitical Risks

Energy Markets and Inflation

One of the critical concerns during geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East, is the impact on energy markets. The Straits of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments, could become a flashpoint in the conflict, potentially disrupting global energy supplies. Such a disruption would likely lead to higher oil prices, contributing to inflationary pressures worldwide.

However, the U.S. is better positioned to withstand energy shocks today than it was during the 1970s. The U.S. has become the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, reducing its dependence on foreign energy. As a result, while a significant escalation in the conflict could drive up energy prices, the systemic risk to the U.S. economy may be lower than in previous decades.

Interest Rates and Fixed Income Markets

Geopolitical events also affect fixed income markets, particularly U.S. Treasury yields. In times of crisis, investors often seek the safety of U.S. Treasuries, leading to lower yields. However, this dynamic can be complicated by inflationary pressures stemming from higher energy prices, which might push yields higher. The outcome depends on the balance between risk aversion and inflation expectations.

S&P 500 Futures in a Full-Blown War Scenario

If the Iranian-Israeli conflict were to escalate into a full-blown war, the implications for S&P 500 futures would be significant. The immediate reaction would likely be a sharp selloff in equity markets as investors flee to safety. The extent of the selloff would depend on various factors, including the duration of the conflict, its impact on global energy supplies, and the broader economic ramifications.

Potential Market Scenarios

  1. Short-Term Volatility: In the early stages of a full-blown conflict, S&P 500 futures could experience extreme volatility. Investors might react to each new development, with futures swinging widely based on news flow. This environment would be challenging for both traders and long-term investors, requiring a nimble approach to managing positions.
  2. Flight to Safety: As uncertainty grows, there would likely be a significant shift towards safe-haven assets, including U.S. Treasuries and gold. S&P 500 futures might see sustained pressure as investors reduce their exposure to riskier assets.
  3. Energy Shock and Inflation: A prolonged conflict that disrupts oil shipments through the Straits of Hormuz could lead to an energy shock, driving up oil prices and fueling inflation. This scenario could force central banks to reconsider their monetary policies, potentially leading to higher interest rates, which would further weigh on equity markets.
  4. Recovery and Repositioning: If the conflict de-escalates or concludes, markets may begin to recover as uncertainty diminishes. However, the speed and extent of the recovery would depend on the lasting economic impact of the conflict. Investors might reposition their portfolios, gradually increasing exposure to equities as confidence returns.

Strategic Considerations for Investors

In a full-blown war scenario, maintaining a defensive posture would be prudent. Investors should focus on preserving capital and managing risk rather than chasing returns. Diversification across asset classes, including exposure to safe-haven assets, would be essential. Additionally, staying informed and agile would allow investors to adjust their positions as the situation evolves.

S&P 500 futures are a critical component of the global financial markets, offering investors a tool to hedge against or speculate on future market movements. The recent Iranian-Israeli conflict highlights the sensitivity of these futures to geopolitical events. While the initial market reaction was relatively muted, the situation underscores the importance of understanding the broader implications of such conflicts on markets.

Geopolitical risks can lead to short-term volatility, but history suggests that markets often recover quickly once the situation stabilizes. However, in a scenario where the conflict escalates into a full-blown war, the impact on S&P 500 futures could be severe, with potential repercussions for global energy markets, inflation, and interest rates.

For investors, navigating these uncertain times requires a balanced approach, combining a defensive posture with the flexibility to adapt as circumstances change. By staying informed and maintaining a diversified portfolio, investors can manage risk and position themselves for long-term success in the face of geopolitical challenges.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 (US) or (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Follow us on all socials: @cannontrading

 

Labor Day 2024 Holiday Schedule for CME Exchange Hours

Posted on by Ilan

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Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Labor Day 2024

Labor Day 2024 Holiday Schedule for CME Exchange Hours (including Globex & ICE Exchange)

Labor Day 2024

*Dates and times are subject to change

If you have any questions, please call the CME Global Command Center at +1 800 438 8616, in Europe at +44 800 898 013 or in Asia at +65 6532 5010

Globex® Labor Day Holiday Schedule for CME Exchange Hours (including Globex & ICE Exchange)

More details at: http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar.html 

Detailed holiday hours for ICE Futures: https://www.theice.com/holiday-hours

The above sources were compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Cannon Trading assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.  It is meant as an alert to events that may affect trading strategies and is not necessarily complete.  The closing times for certain contracts may have been rescheduled.

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Weekly Newsletter: 5 Short Trading Videos to Expand Your Trading + Trading Levels for August 19th

Posted on by Jenny Collins
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Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Silver

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1205

In this issue:

  •  Important Notices – Fed Minutes, FRB Jackson Hole Symposium, Econ Data
  • Futures 101 – Videos: Bollinger Bands, Parabolics, Projecting Targets
  • Hot Market of the Week – November Soybeans
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Mini NQ Swing Trading System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:

Fed Minutes, FRB Jackson Hole Symposium, Econ Data and a few earnings.

Gold just hit all time highs at time of writing this newsletter. 2548!!

Economic Data:

  • Mon. Leading Economic Indicators
  • Wed. FOMC Minutes
  • Thu. Chi. Fed. Natl Activity index, weekly jobless claims, S&P PMI Flash, Existing Home Sales
  • Fri. Bldg. Permits, FED CHAIR Powell speaks. 9:00 a.m. Central, New home Sales

Fed activity:

  • Mon. Waller speaks
  • Tues. Bostic and Barr speak
  • Wed. FOMC Minutes from previous meeting, Jackson Hole Symposium begins.
  • Fri. ** Fed Chair Powell Speaks. 9:00 a.m. Central**

Earnings Reports:

  • Largely Retail Sector featured this week.
  • Dollar Tree, Target, TJX, Lowe’s, Ross, Williams-Sonoma, Burlington, BJ’s and the biggest by market cap, PDD (TEMU)
  • Check times below for econ data releases

 

  • Futures 101: 25 Proven Strategies for Trading Options

    If you are currently trading options on futures or are interested in exploring them further, check out our newly updated trading guide, featuring 25 commonly used options strategies, including butterflies, straddles, strangles, backspread and conversions. Each strategy includes an illustration demonstrating the effect of time decay on the total option premium involved in the position.

    Options on futures rank among our most versatile risk management tools, and are offered on most of our products. Whether you trade options for purposes of hedging or speculating, you can limit your risk to the amount you paid up-front for the option while maintaining your exposure to beneficial price movements. To learn more about CME Group options, you can also visit our Options page

    Complete the simple form and you will receive a link to download the 25 Proven Strategies brochure immediately. This eBook is free to you and no-obligation. Learn about the 25 Proven Strategies for trading options on CME Group Futures for FREE!

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    • Hot Market of the Week – November Beans

    Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

    FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

    November Beans

     

    November soybean satisfied the fourth downside PriceCount objective and is attempting an overdue near term correction higher. This suggests we may have come far enough for this phase of the bear run although the weekly chart has an open third count to the $9.07 area that keeps the downside potential open on a longer term basis.

     

    PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been, but where we might be going next!

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

   Broker’s Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.

 FASSONERIA – Mini NASDAQ – NEW SYSTEM

PRODUCT

NQ – Mini NQ

SYSTEM TYPE

Swing

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$35,000

COST

USD 165 / monthly

Get Started

Learn More

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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
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Daily Levels for August 19th 2024

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Trading Reports for Next Week

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Futures Trading Levels for Aug. 16th, 2024

Posted on by Jenny Collins
Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group!
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel
Listen to our Market Recap Podcasts on Apple Podcasts

 

C17

 

Strong moves across the board!

Volatility is a bit more manageable in my opinion the last few days compare to last week.

Daily chart of the NQ, mini Nasdaq for your review.

Also a video I created last year on projecting possible targets when you are in a trade below.

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Daily Levels for August 16th, 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Key Economic Indicators Shake Markets as Fed Decision Looms

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group!
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel
Listen to our Market Recap Podcasts on Apple Podcasts

 

C91

 

Movers and shakers!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:   

 

So far this week, two of three important measures of the U.S. economy have been released: Tuesday’s Producer Price Index and today’s Consumer Price Index, both from the Labor Department and both providing the latest inflation data.  Tuesday’s report measuring average price changes seen by producers and manufacturers showed wholesale inflation slowing, up just 0.1% month-over-month and falling to 2.2% year-over-year.

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%, its lowest since March 2021.  Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at a 0.2% monthly rise and a 3.2% annual rate

 

Many analysts have been calling for the Federal Reserve to start lowering borrowing costs given the descendent inflationary readings this year, to which Central Bank chairman Jerome Powell has replied consistently after every FOMC meeting, to paraphrase, “patience.”

 

According the CME Group FedWatch tool, there is now a ±64% probability that the Fed will lower the Federal target rate range by 25 basis points down to 5.00-5.25% at their September FOMC meeting.  Including tomorrow’s Retail Sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, there are numerous events on the horizon to give the Fed. more to think about:

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Metals: 

 

A powerful workers union is behind a current labor strike in Chile.  Because it’s virtually paralyzed the world’s largest copper mine – producing nearly 5% of the world’s copper in 2023 – keep an eye on those developments and the futures contract with the informal PhD in economics.  December copper prices are near 5-month lows, just above $4.00/lb. after falling over $1.00/lb from a May 20 close at $5.0185 – a $25,000 per contract move.

 

 

Energies:  

 

U.S. natural gas futures rose today for the sixth time in seven sessions ahead of tomorrow’s  weekly inventory report that’s expected to chip away further at the large storage surplus.  September futures have traded ±27 cents (±$2,700) off its Aug. 5 close of $1.942 /MMBtu., up to $2.216 /MMBtu.

 

 

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Daily Levels for August 15th, 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.