Cannon Trading Blog

PPI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment and perhaps more important, inflation expectation tomorrow.

Silver daily chart below, trying to decide between breaking higher or failing at resistance. Tomorrow’s reports may help.

Daily Levels for July 12th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Heading into the last 2 trading days of the week!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

The two-day testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell – in front of the Senate Banking Committee yesterday and the House Financial Services Committee today – is over.  Akin to required summer reading, traders are all ears listening for clues on the central bank’s outlook on the current economic environment and future interest rate policy.  The head of the central bank acknowledged the cooling job market and persistently high prices.  If chair Powell tipped his hand at all, he did indicate the Fed had made “considerable progress,” in quelling inflation over the last two years, though it still remains above the central bank’s 2% target.

From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate 11 times to a two-decade high of 5.3% to fight inflation, which peaked at 9.1% two years prior.  Those hikes increased the cost of consumer borrowing by raising rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, among other forms of borrowing. The goal was to slow borrowing and spending and cool the economy.

Up next, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index report tomorrow at 7:30 A.M., Central Time, which measures the prices paid by consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services.  Economists see headline CPI slowing to 3% year-over-year growth.  Core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to hold steady at annualized growth of 3.4%. The Producer Price Index will be released Friday.

Indexes: 

The September S&P 500 stock index futures contract climbed to it latest all-time high today, currently ±5673.00 up 41.75 points / ± 0.75% – its 36th record high of the year.  The September Nasdaq futures contract followed suit, thrusting up ± 1% / ± 190 points to near 20,900.

General, Part 2: 

Take a look at the top returns for the first half of 2024 among major global financial assets.

In first place with a 22% return: Silver.  After the S&P 500 and NASDAQ in second and third place (two of the most actively traded futures contracts) the next four top returns came from commodities: WTI crude oil, Copper, Gold and Brent crude oil.

Daily Levels for July 11th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Powell Testimony, CPI and PPI.

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

With a 20 point swing in the ES and a 155 point range in the NQ today and In lieu of the fact we have two days of Humphrey Hawkins testimony in both chambers of the house this week, I have always wondered what he Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices have been historically.

From the Cleveland Fed, I found a scholarly paper Dated 2023, for the numbers nerds among us, that attempts to, through past data sets, assign volatility to price changes in Long term and short term Treasuries and the S & P 500 index, during and after the testimony. Here are some links I hope some of you will enjoy. The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices   wp2326 (4).pdf  https://www.clevelendfed.org>working-papers.

If you opt not to read the document, here is a quick synopsis of their conclusions: Day 1 causes the largest price movements compared to day 2. They go on to talk about the differences in the types of testimony and their findings on price volatility associated with that testimony. Be prepared for the next Humphey -Hawkins, Semi-annual testimony!

What are the US CPI Report Expectations? Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

What are the US PPI Report Expectations? Producer prices in June are expected to rise 0.1 percent on the month versus an unexpected 0.2 percent decline in May. The annual rate in June is seen at 2.3 percent versus May’s 2.2 percent. June’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen up 0.2 percent on the month versus no change in the prior month.

Daily Levels for July 10th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Lower volume than usual today across the board, with choppy action in stock indices.

Summer trading? 4th of July extended vacations to some of the larger money? perhaps the light calendar and maybe it is all of the above.

Looks like a Light week ahead, based on reports below BUT we have CPI, PPI as well as:

Heavy Fed Speak and Data :

We have Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell providing testimony to congress’s Semiannual Monetary Policy report, Tuesday its the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and urban affairs. Wednesday it’s Before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. In addition to 4 other Fed Speakers, Barr, Bowman, Goolsbee and Cook.

On the data front, impressive releases: Used Car Data, Consumer Inflation Expectations, Consumer Credit, NFIB Business Optimism Index, Jobless Claims, CPI, PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

And Finally, WASDE release on Friday @11 a.m. Central

Daily Levels for July 9th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements     

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

Happy Independence Day eve. Heads up traders. While tomorrow, July 4th is a holiday, the next day, July 5th is the first Friday of the month and for traders it marks the release of the Labor Department’s monthly Non-farm payrolls report. The report is widely considered to be one of the most important and influential measures of the U.S. economy. It’s released at 7:30 A.M., Central Time.

The economy is expected to have added 190,000 jobs in June, a step down from the 272,000 new jobs in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4%. Average hourly earnings are expected to decline from 0.4% in May to 0.3% in June, in a potential good sign for the Fed.

Stock Indexes:

The Nasdaq climbed to new all-time highs today as traders continued their buying into the excitement surrounding artificial-intelligence technology.

The S&P 500 rose to set an all-time high for the 33rd time this year.

4th of July modified trading hours! Full schedule HERE

https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/support-resistance-levels/4th-of-july-2024-holiday-schedule-for-cme-exchange-hours/

Daily Levels for July 5th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Choppy, Exhilarating Market week, yet to come..

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Look for a quiet July 3rd trading morning due to an early trading halt in the stock indices, 12:15 Central time to be exact.

HOWEVER, the rest of the futures markets will be closing normal times.

After the equity market Halt in Wednesday, FOMC Minutes will be released @ 1:00p.m. Central. Watch the outside markets react, Currency’s, Interest Rates, Metals to get an Idea of how the equities will react when they re-open on the Eve of the 4th of July.

Friday at 7:30 a.m. central, the very meaningful, Non-Farm Payrolls will be released.

In celebration of America’s 248th birthday, our team decided to take a look at this holiday through the fascinating lens of numbers. As it Turns out, these figures paint a vivid picture of what makes the Fourth of July such an extraordinary celebration. With that in mind, we thought we would share what we found with you:

• $9.5 billion – The estimated amount Americans spent on 4th of July food in 2023 — about $93.34 per person.
• 150 million – The number of hot dogs consumed each 4th of July — enough to stretch from D.C. to L.A. more than five times. It’s also the number of American flags sold in the U.S. each year.
• 2 million – The number of people who tuned in to watch 2023 Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest champs Miki Sudo and Joey Chestnut consume approximately 102 hot dogs combined.
• $3 billion – The estimated amount of dollars Americans spent on beer and wine for the Fourth of July in 2023. If you partake, just remember to enjoy responsibly!
• $2.3 billion – The total U.S. consumers spent on fireworks in 2023.
• 50.7 million – The number of people who traveled 50+ miles from home for the 4th of July, up 4% from 2022.

These numbers highlight how Americans like to go all out in our nationwide Independence Day celebrations!

https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/support-resistance-levels/4th-of-july-2024-holiday-schedule-for-cme-exchange-hours/

Daily Levels for July 3rd, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Short week ahead but packed of action.

Tomorrow, we have both JOLTS report as well as Powell speaking.

4th of July holiday is Thursday and markets will have modified schedule.

Please see below for:

1. Important reports for the week
2. First Notice and Last trading Day for July

Daily Levels for July 2nd, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1200

• Important Notices – 4th of July Modified Trading Schedule +Busy Short Week Schedule
• Futures 101 – Essentials of Order Flow
• Hot Market of the Week – Sept. Silver
• Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Mini Nasdaq Swing Trading System
• Trading Levels for Next Week
• Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:

• Earnings:  no significant earnings for the large indices, a quiet one next week on this front
  Fed Speakers:
  • The fireworks start here with Fed Chair Powell, Speaking from Sintra , Portugal at the ECB Central Banking Forum 8:30 am CST Tuesday
  • 6 a.m. CST Wednesday Fed Gov. Williams
  • Also on Wed. FOMC Minutes 1 p.m. Central / 45 minutes after the Equities close ( all other financial markets remain open until 4 p.m. central)
  • Friday early, 4:40 a.m. CST Fed Williams , speaks again
  Econ Data: Potentially biggest fireworks display ignited by the following:
  • Construction Spending, ISM manufacturing, Redbook, Jolts, Economic Optimism Index, ADP Employment change, US Balance of trade, Initial Jobless claims, S&P Global PMI, Factory Orders, FOMC Minutes, Non-Farm Payrolls.
  Please read down for dates and times in our calendar
  • 4th of July hours below and in depth HERE

• Real Time Email and/or Text Alerts

• You will receive an email each time there is an entry or exit in a simple language along with the current price for that specific market.
• Example: Sell June MBT ( micro bitcoin) at market. Target will be 61920 Stop at 70540
• A licensed series 3 broker at your fingertips
• Email alerts available to US and Canada and Int’l clients
• Alerts available for: Stock Indices, Grains, Metals, Rates, Currencies, Meats & Softs
• Alerts are SWING Trades
• See an example of a recent trade alert for Micro Bitcoin Futures in the image below – a new trade alert from June 14th

• Hot Market of the Week – September Silver

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Daily Levels for July 1st 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Tonight’s debate may trigger some short term volatility – hard to tell.

research into the medium term affect, shows not much to be expected.

That being said, we may see some wider moves tonight and then tomorrow we have PCE which will impact indices, metals, rates as well as big USDA report which will affect the entire grain complex.

To add a bit more fuel to the fire…..tomorrow is the last trading day for June. Last trading days of the month usually see higher volume and at times volatility.

When in doubt – stay out!

If you are a day trader, below you will see markets that our proprietary ALGO has identified as being more suitable for attacking either from the long side or the short side for the next trading session.

Questions? We are happy to help!

Daily Levels for June 28th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

The Rest of the Trading Week……

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker:

General:  

The focus this week will be on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which could shed light on the central bank’s interest-rate path.

Also on the radar are U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product estimates and the first debate between President Joe Biden and the presumptive Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump on Thursday.

Metals:     

Gold futures prices fell ± $20 or ± 1% to their lowest level in more than two weeks today, likely on the heels of continued U.S. dollar strength.  The front month August contract traded within a few dollars of $2,300 per ounce – which is ±$160/oz. from its mid-May all-time high (Aug. gold closed at $2,461.70/oz. on May 20th).  Conversely, the September U.S. Dollar futures contract dollar rose 0.4% to ± 105.75, a near two-month peak against its main rivals, thus making gold more expensive for other currency holders.

Energies:    

After a ± $8.00 per barrel rally in the last three weeks and trading between $80 – $82 per barrel over the last seven sessions, crude oil futures held steady in the face of the strong dollar.  Traders appear increasingly confident that global oil inventories will inevitably feel demand pressure – particularly in the northern hemisphere coming into its summer driving season.  Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a ramp-up in Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries are also underpinning oil prices.

If you are a day trader, below you will see markets that our proprietary ALGO has identified as being more suitable for attacking either from the long side or the short side for the next trading session.

Questions? We are happy to help!

Daily Levels for June 26th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.