Risk-On — But at an Inflection Point
Bottom Line
A few things jumped out this week. The market paid up for the SpaceX IPO — the stock opened at $150 against a $135 offer price and was trading near $170 by Friday. And the Russell 2000 made fresh all-time highs on Friday alongside the S&P 500 Equal Weight. New highs in the Russell are usually a risk-on signal — that is the kind of broadening you want to see.
RUT
But there is also a resistance trendline in the RUT (you’ll see it in the charts below), and that is why this is an inflection point. The next thing to watch closely is whether the Russell 2000 can clear this resistance and confirm risk-on, or whether this turns out to be a top. It could simply be consolidation here. The market will tell us which.
VIX, Treasury, US/Iran
The week itself was choppy. Stocks recovered from a volatile start on rising peace hopes around U.S.–Iran. The VIX briefly pushed above 23 on Tuesday before cooling back to a calmer 18 by Friday. Treasury yields and oil prices both cooled too, largely driven by Thursday reports that the U.S. and Iran could sign a deal “in the next few days.”
CPI & PPI
CPI and core PPI came in cooler than expected, but headline PPI ran hot and annual inflation is still at multi-year highs above the Fed’s target. The pullback in oil and yields should both favor the bulls if it holds. That is the cleanest read of the macro tape this week.
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