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Market Recap & Economic Reports 10.27.2015

October 26th, 2015 Filed under Future Trading News | Comment (0)

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1. Market Commentary
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4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday October 27, 2015

Hello Traders,

For 2015 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

From our friends at TradeTheNews.com, weekly recap and what to look for in the week ahead.if you would like a free trial to TradeTheNews.com live audio commentary, breaking news alerts and much more, visit us to get started.
Markets tilted even further back into risk-on sentiment this week on the prospects of more central bank stimulus and as many of the marquee names reported better than expected Q3 earnings. ECB President Draghi gave markets a boost by promising more stimulus at the December meeting on the heels of Germany reporting another month of PPI contraction. China’s central bank threw in another rate cut for good measure, further confirming market expectations that central banks will provide an even bigger stimulus cushion. A raft of housing data showed the US real estate market remains a bright spot. Despite some more turmoil in the biotech sector, the broader stock market continued to rebound as solid earnings reports came in and some key firms surprised to the upside. The major US indices exploded past their 200 day moving averages on Friday, and for the week, the DJIA gained 2.5%, the S&P rose 2.1%, and the Nasdaq surged 3%.Central Bank monetary policy came sharply back into focus this week. ECB President Draghi kicked things off with the bank’s latest policy statement. Draghi announced the council will formally re-examine the degree of accommodation necessary to offset growing downside risks to growth when they meet in December. He went on to reveal that, as part of a robust discussion, the monetary policy council talked about lowering the deposit rate as well as expanding QE, though no stimulus tool has yet emerged as the favorite. The shift in the ECB stance sent global equities and the Dollar Index on a run that was further propelled by the PBOC’s decision to cut both the deposit rate and the RRR on Friday, its 6th rate cut action this year. The PBoC cut was particularly meaningful ahead of the Chinese Communist Party Plenum next week which will set targets for the country’s next 5-year economic plan.The US Treasury curve steepened on the increased likelihood this week’s move gives even more cover to the US Fed should it choose to delay rate liftoff into 2016. Fed speak was notably absent due to the blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.US housing data continued to show strength. The October NAHB housing market index beat expectation and hit its best level in nearly 10 years. Existing home sales for September came in at 5.55M, better than the 5.39M estimate amid continued tight supply. September housing starts were better than expected, though building permits missed estimates.

Oil prices declined more than 6% this week with WTI retreating back towards one month lows after looking poised to break out above the $50 earlier this month. The weekly API and DoE inventory surveys both reported another huge inventory build (+7.1 million and +8.0 million bbls, respectively), highlighting continued strong supply of crude in North America. The recent decline we have been seeing in the Baker Hughes rig count slowed dramatically this week as well.

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Futures Levels and Economic Reports for 9.10.2014

September 8th, 2014 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Futures Trading | Comment (0)

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

As I often do on Mondays…quick recap and lok ahead for fundamentals affecting major markets from our friends at www.TradeTheNews.com


TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: ECB Acts, Markets React

– With Europe slowly sinking into deflation and looming recession, the ECB took action this week, cutting rates and pledging to launch an asset-backed securities buying program. In the US, the August jobs report was weaker than expected, although analysts largely explained away the miss. The S&P500 has seemed reluctant to go much higher after topping 2000 for the first time last week. The conflict in Ukraine turned from warfare to diplomacy yet again as evidence of Russia’s hand in the fighting became more and more obvious and Western allies threatened additional economic sanctions. China PMI readings stabilized, which was enough to send the Shanghai Composite up nearly five percent, its biggest weekly gain in over a year. For the week, the DJIA rose 0.2%, the S&P500 gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq edged up less than 0.1%.

– On Thursday the ECB cut its refinancing rate to 0.05% from 0.15% and its deposit rate to -0.2% from -0.1%, and announced that it would launch an asset purchase program focused on private asset-backed securities. ECB President Draghi pronounced that that the ECB was now officially at the lower bound of interest rates and that no more rate cuts were possible. The decisions were not unanimous, however Draghi said a “comfortable majority” was in favor of the new measures. Observers pointed out that the European ABS market was relatively small and that the program might not be the sort of weapon that would do much to forestall deflation. The big bazooka of sovereign bond purchases remains on the shelf, with German opposition to its use still very strong; note that the Bundesbank’s Weidmann was the most vocal opponent to the rate cuts and ABS program announced this week.

– The August US jobs report disappointed markets on Friday with a sizable miss in the nonfarm payrolls (+142K v +230Ke). The NFP was the lowest reading in 2014 so far and broke a six-month stretch of 200K+ monthly gains, the longest run seen since the late 1990s. Commentators noted that the August data has the greatest chance of being revised higher due to seasonal factors, and many analysts suggest the final estimate will rise to the upper half of the 150-200K range. In addition, over the last 12 years or so, every NFP print over +300K has been followed by one near or under +100K, suggesting that the July/August data are following a well-established pattern.

– Coming into the week, the situation in Ukraine was going from bad to worse, with reports indicating more columns of Russian tanks and troops were entering the country to reinforce pro-Russian separatists in their offensive against government forces. On Wednesday Russia President Putin and Ukraine President Poroshenko restarted diplomacy that had broken off a week before, agreeing to discuss another ceasefire on Friday. It was not lost on anyone that Putin’s overture came as the planned NATO summit convened in Wales. Ahead of the confab, US President Obama reiterated the alliance’s defense commitments to its eastern members, and at the summit NATO finalized agreements for more aid to Ukraine and leaders said more sanctions on Russia are imminent. On Friday, Kiev and the separatists agreed to a temporary ceasefire and talks continue for a more enduring truce.

– Shares of BP dropped sharply on Thursday, pulling the FTSE lower with it, after a US judge ruled that the company was grossly negligent in the 2010 Macondo oil spill. Recall that BP has already agreed to pay $13.7 billion in fines for the Gulf of Mexico spill, but the “gross negligence” finding means BP could face quadruple damages and a maximum of $18 billion in additional fines. Transocean and Halliburton were found to be partly culpable but cleared of gross negligence in the case.

– August auto sales were mostly beat expectations, highlighted by Chrysler’s sales up 20% y/y. The overall industry continues to see sales volumes recover to levels last seen before the recession. A Ford sales executive said the industry is very strong at this stage in the US economic recovery, with August industry SAAR running around a mid-17M unit annualized rate, the best rate since 2006.

– Homebuilders Toll Brothers and Hovnanian both beat expectations in third quarter reports out this week, and both firms saw very good y/y gains in revenues and profits. Toll Brothers narrowed its FY14 guidance for expected deliveries and said ASPs would be higher than expected, sending the company’s shares lower. Hovnanian did not offer guidance, but its metrics for the quarter were pretty solid, with the backlog up by double digits.

– According to press reports, Alibaba plans to kick off its IPO roadshow in New York City starting on Monday, Sept 8th. On Friday, the IPO pricing range was set at $60-66/ADS implying a valuation around $150 billion (similar to the market cap of Amazon). Alibaba is expected to price the IPO on Sept 18th and begin trading its shares on the NYSE on Sept 19th.

– In M&A, two large deals were announced on Tuesday. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings agreed to acquire Prestige Cruises International Inc. in a deal valued at about $3.03 billion. Prestige is owned by PE firm Apollo Global Management, which also has a 20% stake in Norwegian. Compuware reached a tentative deal to sell itself for $2.5 billion to PE fund Thomas Bravo. Compuware had been under pressure from activist investors to cut costs, lay off staff, and solicit buyout offers for more than a year.

– The ECB policy decision on Thursday slammed the euro, driving the biggest one-day decline in EUR/USD since October 2011, with the pair dropping to 1.2920 from 1.3150. EUR/USD spent all of Thursday and Friday below 1.30. EUR/CHF tested 1.2045, getting as close to the SNB floor as the pair has been since it was established in September 2011. The pound was softer as traders positioned nervously ahead of the Scottish independence referendum scheduled for September 18th. A YouGov poll out this week suggested that support for Scottish independence had risen eight points over the past month, dangerously close to the 50% threshold. Analysts pointed out that a significant GBP risk event could unfold as UK economic data has begun to soften across the board.

– USD/JPY hit 6-year highs late in the week after Japan PM Abe offered LDP deputy policy chief Yasuhisa Shiozaki the Health Minister cabinet post, sparking hopes of early GPIF pension reform. Shiozaki has been the LDP’s largest proponent of GPIF pension reform including diversification into more domestic equities and foreign securities and away from domestic bonds.

– The Bank of Japan maintained its assessment for the 13th consecutive meeting that “economy continued to recover moderately as a trend”, and despite some speculation of a more upbeat language, it largely stuck to the familiar script. The only change in the latest BOJ statement was a downgrade on the property market, noting the “decline in housing investment following front-loaded increase has continued.” Also of note out of Japan, wage inflation is finally accelerating more meaningfully, with the latest data out of Labor Statistics showing July cash earnings growing by 2.6% y/y – the largest increase since 1997. This should provide some welcome relief to Abenomics, just as the cabinet approval ratings for PM Abe also headed higher following this week’s cabinet reshuffle. Late on Friday, Japan’s Economy Minister Amari pledged more caution in the government’s expected December decision on whether to proceed with another round of sales tax hikes.

– China PMI figures showed the economy diverging in favor of the services sector, which would be in line with policy objectives in Beijing. Official non-manufacturing PMI rose for the first time in 3 months to 54.4 from 54.2, while HSBC services PMI hit a 17-month high of 54.1 following an alarming record low of 50.0 print in July. In contrast, the official manufacturing PMI slowed for the first time in 6 months to 51.1, and the final HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to a 3-month low. HSBC chief China economist was cautious on both measures, noting subdued domestic demand and considerable downside risks to growth in the second half of 2014 related to the property sector slowdown justifying expectations for more easing measures to support the recovery. The Shanghai Composite was bid higher by an impressive 4.9% this week – the biggest gain since early 2013 and the highest level for the index in 15 months.

Source:

http://www.tradethenews.com/?storyId=1598274

 

 

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