This Blog provides futures market outlook for different commodities and futures trading markets, mostly stock index futures, as well as support and resistance levels for Crude Oil futures, Gold futures, Euro currency and others. At times the daily trading blog will include educational information about different aspects of commodity and futures trading.
Buy May ’23 / Sell March ‘23 Feeder Cattle: Outlook
Because food (after 2-3 months, calves are weaned off milk and fed a diet of grain, hay and water) is a primary but fluctuating cost, livestock producers want to feed as many animals as possible when feed is most plentiful. So, cattle feedlot operators replenish their usually low cattle herds in October & November when corn becomes readily available at usually harvest-low prices. Those young animals will gain weight only slowly during winter and typically reach market weight in April. The result is that demand for feeders remains sluggish in March, but surges in May.
Performance Snapshot
Below is a performance snapshot of the seasonal trend for each of the last 15 years. You can find average gain/loss, best/worst equity (based on one futures spread contract), and more.
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions about spreads, seasonal tendencies, options and MUCH MORE!
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Cannon Trading believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MORE CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN A SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE YEAR. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES, AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST OR WILL IN THE FUTURE ACHIEVE PROFITS UTILIZING THESE STRATEGIES. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSION AND SLIPPAGE.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
New Crop Kansas City Wheat to head lower?? WASDE Thursday may provide more clues.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
Please contact a Cannon Broker if you have any questions about trade strategy, set-ups and risk management techniques as we start the new year! Plan your trade and trade your plan.
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The above sources were compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Cannon Trading assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. It is meant as an alert to events that may affect trading strategies and is not necessarily complete. The closing times for certain contracts may have been rescheduled.
The most volatile event this week off the economic data calendar will almost certainly be the December CPI at 7:30 CST on Thursday. The core CPI was up 6.0 percent in November, coming down from its near-term peak of up 6.6 percent in September.
The total CPI was up 7.1 percent year-over-year in November and has been on the decline since the near-term peak of up 9.1 percent in June.. It is expected that the December report will see a little more easing in upward inflationary price pressures. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
In the agriculture sector, this week highlights the WASDE USDA Crop Production, Supply/Demand and winter wheat seedings all following suit on Thursday at 11:00 am CST. Although North American crop land is experiencing winter weather it is summer time in South America and we will get meaningful numbers from Brazil and Argentina row crop production in this World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate. https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde
Please contact a Cannon Broker if you have any questions about trade strategy, set-ups and risk management techniques as we start the new year! Plan your trade and trade your plan.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this week.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Trading Levels for Next Week
Daily Levels for January 9th, 2022
Weekly Levels
Trading Reports for Next Week
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
“I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not, and if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during his FOMC news conference back in mid-December. “It’s not knowable.”
And with this in mind, it’s not far-fetched to expect the markets that have been most disrupted in recent years will to continue to ricochet in 2023.
Policymakers will continue to try to guess what lies ahead and they’ll continue to make predictions by looking at historical data, which has always been critical to those who make those predictions. Flying in the face of that approach is that over the last three years – roughly the duration of the pandemic – the past is proving anything but a reliable guide.
The economy rebounded from the hit it incurred at the onset of the coronavirus – faster and stronger than expected. Then, shortages of goods collided with strong demand and fueled a burst in inflation, one that has been both more extreme and more stubborn than anticipated.
Now, we have a year in which the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980’s – in their efforts to slow growth and bring those rapid price increases back under control. The war in Ukraine has and will almost certainly continue to impact energy and grain prices. And with China’s Covid policy charting an unclear future for the world’s second largest economy, the future is still extraordinarily uncertain.
Will the Fed’s policies spur a recession? Or, will the economy gently cool down, taming high inflation in the process? How will commodity prices react? Commodities futures traders, Central bankers, economists, the current administration’s officials all will be trying to guess what might lie ahead for the economy in 2023.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
We started out 2023 with a bit better volume across the board and some large moves across different markets.
Still not the volume we saw in the first week of December but as large traders return from holidays the volume will pick up.
We have a busy day tomorrow!
ISM PMI
JOLTS
FOMC Minutes.
If anyone has holidays “hangover” tomorrow should cure that out as I expect some larger moves and higher volatility.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Wishing ALL of you a happy, healthy and successful New Year!
The Trader’s Prayer
May I never be facing north when the markets headed south, and may locked limit always be on my side. 🤜🏼
May the money left on the table be someone else’s and may my pockets be deeper than the correction.
✋ May I always be 5 minutes ahead of the market, And may my order have a clear path to the pit (electronic exchange now days….).
✋ And if this one is a winner, I swear I quit!
Make 2023 Your Best Trading Year Yet – Walk before you run
By Cannon Trading staff
The image of a successful futures trader is that of a lone wolf surveying the landscape looking for an opportunity to attack and seize quick and substantial profits. We all know about the potential for making a fortune in the futures markets. Yet, few do so. Why is that? What are some of the common pitfalls that prevent this dream from becoming a reality for most futures traders?
One of the most prevalent misconceptions for inexperienced futures traders is that they believe themselves to be smarter than the rest of the commodities market participants. They underestimate the qualifications and abilities of the rest of the futures markets professionals. This business of commodities trading is dominated by very dedicated, resourceful professionals who have invested lots of time and assets into their pursuit of trading futures profits. Competing against these seasoned professionals is not impossible but going at it alone, especially initially, is usually not the most prudent course of action for new futures traders.
When we were children, we learned to walk before we learned to run. This is true for most of our life experiences. We played t-ball before we played baseball. We took lessons from Arthur Murray before we entered dance competitions. We watched cooking shows or read cookbooks before we attempted to deep fry our first turkey. So, why do so many novice futures traders think that they should enter into the world of futures trading without the support of an experienced futures broker? Why, armed with their computers and quote systems do they think that they are equipped to go it alone and be successful? It isn’t logical. It goes counter to our collective life experiences.
If your goal is to trade futures/commodities independently, why not do so after acquiring valuable experience and insight by working with a seasoned professional futures broker? Someone who is already fully engaged in the futures markets. Why not begin by using a mentor, a teacher, an advisor who can supply ideas, guidelines, disciplines, and insights that the novice trader could not otherwise be exposed to? We all learned to drive with the help of an instructor, why not approach the commodities markets in a similar fashion? Your hard-earned capital is at stake. Getting an education can be a very expensive process, especially in the futures trading business. Why not take advantage of the help offered by an experienced professional? Help like this can shorten a new futures trader’s learning curve and reduce the cost of his or her tuition for this education.
It is true that not all commodities brokers are quality teachers or mentors. The futures trader must choose his or her mentor carefully….just as one does when choosing a lawyer, doctor, or accountant. The futures brokers at Cannon Trading as a group are among the finest professionals that you will find anywhere in the futures trading world. The management at Cannon Trading has chosen these brokers prudently and after much scrutiny. This is evidenced by the impressive record of professional business conduct for the past 30 years by Cannon’s brokers. This record can be reviewed by going to www.nfa.futures.org ( the National Futures Association) website and comparing Cannon Trading versus other futures brokerage firms. You will be impressed.
Professional athletes use sports psychologists. Boxers use corner men. Graduate students study under the guidance of their professors. Professional singers utilize vocal coaches. Shouldn’t you as a futures trader avail yourself of the same sort of support that successful people in all of these endeavors use? Take full advantage of all of the tools available to you in your quest for trading profits.
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Trading Levels for Next Week
Daily Levels for January 3rd, 2022
Weekly Levels
Trading Reports for Next Week
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.