Trading Week Ahead: What to Watch Out For + Trading Levels for August 1st 2023
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
The Week Ahead, by John Thorpe, Senior Broker
“Non Farm Payrolls and may the good Earnings continue.”
For roughly the half way mark in this earnings season, believe it or not, earnings are following expectations and declining for the third straight quarter.
Let me say that again, AS EXPECTED, earnings are declining for the third straight quarter. As expected, according to FACTSET the largest quarterly earnings decline since Q2 2020 is @ -7.3% projected this quarter for all combined reports. But Wait! the indices are high fliers? !! for the year the Nasdaq is up 36%, the S&P is up 20% and the Dow is up nearly 7%.
Why? The economic data continues to surprise to the upside, When Bad is not as bad as expectations”? and after street pundits have been calling for a recession over the past 18 months and the Labor market still characterized as “tight” by Fed Chair Powell last week we have a dichotomy in Fiction vs Fact that is driving prices higher as a “softlanding” with perhaps nary a recession will result from all the fed tightening when the Fed Board declares inflation whipped is gaining traction with some economists.
The tight labor market is keeping the recession from creeping into our economy, BTW earnings expectations have been largely muted and the bar substantially lowered however, earnings so far, even though the lowest since Q@ 2020, have exceeded analysts expectations over 80% of the time this quarter.
This week AMD, CAT PFEW SBUX report after the close on Tuesday. AAPL and AMZN report Thursday after the close.
On the Economic Data front the biggest reports are employment based, JOLTS 9AM CDT Tuesday, ADP 7:15 CDT Wednesday, Jobless Claims at 7:30 am CDT and the big Monthly NonFarm Payrols on Friday @ 7:30 CDT
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Futures Trading Levels
08-01-2023
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