Gold Futures

Category Archives: Gold Futures


Gold weekly chart +Support & Resistance Levels 6.21.2018

June 20th, 2018 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading Platform, Futures Broker, Gold Futures, Metal Futures | Comment (0)

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Dear Traders,

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Gold WEEKLY chart for your review below.
This Sunday night I got the first weekly sell signal since the end of 2017. You can see the little red arrow along with the current bar marked in red. Just because a signal happened, does not mean we will see a sell off but for me personally it is a good probability that the pressure is stronger to the downside. I like some of the option plays one can do using vertical put spreads.
The chart above includes some proprietary studies/ALGOS.
These ALGOS along with a 15 minutes one on one session is available for a free trial.

To sign up and more info visit: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/intraday-futures-trading-signals 

Good Trading

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Futures Trading Levels

06-21-2018

Contract September 2018  SP500 #ES_F Nasdaq100  #NQ_F Dow Jones  #YM_F Mini Russell #RTY_F BitCoin Index #XBT_F
Resistance 3 2801.25 7461.33 25029 1737.83 7109.66
Resistance 2 2789.75 7398.92 24944 1725.87 6961.28
Resistance 1 2780.25 7351.58 24803 1718.83 6857.81
Pivot 2768.75 7289.17 24718 1706.87 6709.43
Support 1 2759.25 7241.83 24577 1699.83 6605.96
Support 2 2747.75 7179.42 24492 1687.87 6457.58
Support 3 2738.25 7132.08 24351 1680.83 6354.11
Contract August Gold #GC_F July Silver #SI-F Aug. Crude Oil #CL-F Sept.  Bonds  #ZB_F Sept.  Euro #6E_F
Resistance 3 1284.9 16.48 67.89 144 27/32 1.1749
Resistance 2 1281.7 16.43 67.12 144 19/32 1.1713
Resistance 1 1276.7 16.36 66.33 143 31/32 1.1685
Pivot 1273.5 16.31 65.56 143 23/32 1.1649
Support 1 1268.5 16.24 64.77 143  3/32 1.1622
Support 2 1265.3 16.19 64.00 142 27/32 1.1586
Support 3 1260.3 16.12 63.21 142  7/32 1.1558
Contract July  Corn #ZC_F July Wheat #ZW_F July Beans #ZS_F July SoyMeal #ZM_F July Nat Gas #NG_F
Resistance 3 367.0 509.2 917.00 348.10 3.04
Resistance 2 361.8 499.6 906.50 343.00 3.01
Resistance 1 358.0 493.9 898.00 338.10 2.98
Pivot 352.8 484.3 887.50 333.00 2.95
Support 1 349.0 478.7 879.0 328.1 2.9
Support 2 343.8 469.1 868.50 323.00 2.89
Support 3 340.0 463.4 860.00 318.10 2.87

Economic Reports, source: 

http://app.bettertrader.co 

 

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


Day Trading Comex Gold Futures – Contrary to Conventional Wisdom

June 11th, 2018 Filed under Day Trading, Future Trading News, Gold Futures | Comment (0)

Day Trading Comex Gold Futures

(Contrary to Conventional Wisdom)

 

By: John Thorpe, Cannon Trading Senior Broker

Markets are forward looking. Today’s price is as much a reflection of yesterday’s fears, needs , wants and desires as the current reaction to a political leader rattling sabers, or the effect that a surprise Government Report  will have on the prices of a security or commodity.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Day Traders tend to be well educated and well capitalized.

Risk takers, by any other name, Wildcat oil drillers? Computer geeks working out of their parent’s garage? Mom and Pop managing their hard earned 401k’s; The Day trading approach is not very different from any other investing approach, with one major distinction from other risk takers who operate on a much greater time horizon.  As a day trader, you open an investment and close an investment between sunup and sundown and often many times during a market session.  One of the greatest risks that day traders must avoid is gauging their success or failure within that same sunup to sundown time frame. I like to call this a fiction trap. A fiction trap occurs when the day trader believes that once he has a good day trading, his subsequent days will always yield the same results. The fiction trap results in unrealistic expectations for success.  The Market, like the ocean current, is sometimes similar in repetition, but rarely identical in motion. When risk takers begin the process of assessing a strategy, they do it with the long view in mind.

By taking a longer view of returns, like all other risk takers, you can avoid the fiction trap of unrealistic expectations by incorporating the Rule of 72 into your long-range plans. The Rule of 72 is a formula that tells you how quickly (given a rate of return) it will take for your account size to double. Although your account size can double in one day trading futures, it is rare to hold on to those gains. The Rule of 72 forces you to be patient, emotionally subdued, and in line with long-term goals.

As with any risk taking, timing is key. A day trader needs to become:  a scientist, a student of the discipline, a tester, a collector of data, and an executer of plans.

With any project, the scientist keeps good notes and uses the microscope (technical indicators, charts, et al.) to determine the intersections of volume, price. This approach yields more accurate results than a random approach, such as throwing darts at the WSJ securities settlement page to find the correct asset and the correct position. Doing the homework and creating a practical plan should lead to positive results.

I like day trading in the Futures markets because with no more effort than buying a position, you can just as easily sell to open a new position.  In other words, if you have ever sold a stock or ETF short, you know you can short the asset by requesting from the stock loan department shares of a stock to borrow so you can short it.  Now patiently for an uptick to assume your position. This can be a time-wasting exercise when split-second decision making is required.  For this reason and this reason alone, day trading futures makes far greater sense than day trading stocks or ETF’s.

 

What I want to accomplish with you in this draft is to lay out a blueprint for day trading the NY Comex 100 oz. Gold futures contract, traded electronically through Globex.

 

 Factors Affecting Gold Prices

As part of the road map to the price discovery process, be aware of the London fixing times, or ocean currents, then can determine our Comex Gold prices. You can find charts and data points available like the one below from the U.S. St Louis Fed

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDAMGBD228NLBM

You may find, upon research, that you have an identifiable price pattern around these times in the Comex market equivalents. Allow your research to guide you. These prices from London represent settlement prices for the fabricators, miners, hedgers and speculators from which they close their daily business dealings.  These fixings are as variable as the US Market prices are for gold. The US Market pays attention to the London market, and although not fungible, they are interchangeable in price discovery. London watches Comex and Comex watches London. The auctions are run at 10:30am and 3:00pm London Time for gold and 12:00pm London time for silver. The final auction prices are published to the market as the LBMA Gold Price AM, The LBMA Gold Price PM and the LBMA Silver Price Benchmarks.

Scarcity or the perception of scarcity and lack thereof drives market sentiment.

Markets are forward looking. Today’s   price is as much a reflection of yesterday’s fears as anything else. So we need to anticipate market price impact from Governmental reports, increases and decreases in potential supply or demand,

Central banks have quite a bit to do with the value of the “Yellow Metal” based on how they perceive the underlying economy’s strengths and weaknesses and whether they print money or not, by increasing or decreasing the velocity of the sovereign nations’ cash supply.  When a Central bank adjusts the Nation’s supply of dollars of their native currency, Gold will typically behave reciprocally: More dollars in circulation, value of gold increases, fewer dollars in circulation, the value of gold decreases.

During large chunks of the 20th century, the world’s central banks were net suppliers of gold. After spending their early history accumulating gold to back up national currencies, central banks sold more gold than they purchased after the U.S. dollar became the de facto world reserve currency under the Bretton Woods Agreement.

In recent years, however, the trend has changed. Central banks have become net demanders of gold, which puts upward pressure on both production and retail costs. As some sovereign currency markets are in a constant to variable state of flux and turmoil due to political upheaval or disequilibrium in their balance of trade and payments, investors residing in these countries buy gold to use as a safe haven asset to offset the risk of holding their assets in their sovereign currency.

As with any worthwhile endeavor, a true student of any process understands addtional  research should be done to thoroughly understand the potential  risks and rewards from either day trading or position trading, or with equal vigor, engaging in short term or longer term investing of any kind.

As Greek philosopher Aristotle thoughtfully observed and written for us to learn from over 2000 years ago,  “Bring your desires down to your present means. Increase them only when your increased means permit.”

What Aristotle was saying (as it applies to investing) is to use risk capital only. Risk capital is capital that, if lost in the pursuit of reward, will not impact negatively your ability to take care financially of any of your current obligations, nor will it negatively impact your current lifestyle. This statement is also true for day traders to focus on the risk they are taking on in their own accounts. Just because you had a few good days trading doesn’t necessarily mean you should put more of your account at risk and increase the size of your trades exponentially. This happens all too often and turns successful day traders into unsuccessful traders in the intermediate term, and in many cases these traders end their trading because what was once a growing account with a tempered approach becomes one great big washout.

  1. No distractions, clear the table, shut the door, unplug your devices-FOCUS
  2. Perspective- where has the market been ( long term and intermediate term charts and try to identify the reason for large price moves in either direction
  3. Just because the market is open 23 hours, don’t try to physically trade the market for 23 hours, your money will burn out faster than you will. A quote I like is “the Market can remain irrational for longer than I can be solvent”
  4. Define your daytrading timeframe. (for example: 8am-10am, 2pm-4 pm), set it, and stick to it for at least 30 trading days. Markets have the tendency to behave similarly day in and day out during the same time frames. Remember, like currents in an ocean, markets are sometimes similar in repetition, but rarely identical in motion.
  5. Research – Know the market you are trading. Research it, understand what makes it move. Who the players are in the cash market.
  6. Stay informed – Know the recent daily dollar volatility of the market you are trading. I like to take the past 30 to 45 days for the Aug  Comex 100oz Gold contract. For example, I recently used 30 trading days and arrived at $1220.00. I took the distance between the high and low of each full day, totaled them, added 30 data points together for an average daily range and multiplied that by the value of a tick in the gold  ($10.00)
  7. With my trading platform I have the ability to adjust the time frame to include only the time I  have set aside to view the market. In my research I  will also have a full daily chart

a weekly chart

And a monthly chart

of August Comex Gold  which will show me the critical areas of technical support that I can apply intraday to my abbreviated chart.

Why is dollar volatility Important? (see above) – You can manage your expectations here; you now know you shouldn’t expect to make 2,000.00 on a single trade and you can better gauge how many contracts, and how much risk you can take, on each trade. You now have a template of recent activity to better judge expected volatility without having to utilize an expensive add-on or chart indicator.

8) Call – Please speak with your broker on the phone to determine the appropriate amount of risk capital you need to trade your plan in the Gold Futures Market.

The Comex Gold Contract trades in Chicago through a registered Broker. www.cannontrading.com

Gold Contract specs are as follows:

Quoted in Dollars and Cents per Troy OZ.

Minimum price fluctuation: $0.10 per troy oz.

Symbol GC or GGC

Initial margin requirement: $3,410.00

Maintenance requirement: $3,100.00

Hours traded: 6pm EST Sunday, through to Friday at 5pm EST with an hour break each day between 5pm and 6 pm EST

As always, lean on your broker for guidance, call him or her and discuss what your risk tolerance levels are. Where to use stop loss orders or options to hedge your trading plan to ensure you leave yourself with a fighting chance.

Disclaimer: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.

The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.

There is not an actual account trading these recommendations.

Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

 


What are the Best Approaches for Long-Term Gold Futures Price Forecasting?

May 28th, 2018 Filed under Gold Futures, Metal Futures | Comment (0)

Author: Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker at Cannon Trading Co, Inc.

There is no easy answer to what the best strategy is to predicting price movement in gold futures, much less any other commodity.  Given that rather glum starting point, there are approaches that analysts and economists use to forecast prices.  One most commonly employed is the use of broad-based commodity indexes – in which prices of food, energy, other metals, lumber, etc. are aggregated to gauge overall commodity price inflation – or the lack thereof.

Another strategy is to look for trends in the economic measurements of major developed and developing countries, such as business and consumer confidence, retail sales, interest rates, production of energy products (unleaded gas, heating oil, jet fuel, natural gas) and industrial metals (steel, aluminum).  These can also be aggregated to provide a broader reflection of global inflation. Read the rest of this entry »


Gold Futures VS Gold ETFs (GCL, IAU) by Matt Kang

April 30th, 2018 Filed under Gold Futures, Metal Futures | Comment (0)

By Matt Kang, Senior Broker @ Cannon Trading Co, Inc.

Gold is the most actively traded precious metal and it is a good hedge against inflation that is why many individuals and institutional investors are investing in gold  to keep their assets by declining dollar and US stock values. Retail access to gold trading has broadened substantially through the futures and gold ETFs.

Let’s take a look at the key difference between gold futures and gold ETFs.

  • Where they traded?

Gold future (GC) is trading at COMEX and GOLD ETFs (GLD/IAU) is traded through securities exchanges. Read the rest of this entry »

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