Economic Trading Archives - Support & Resistance Levels

Economic Trading

Category Archives: Economic Trading


OJ, Copper and CPI + Levels for May 15th

May 14th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Economic Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Metal Futures | Comment (0)

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Juice on the Loose!

 

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Monthly World Agricultural Supply Demand reports aren’t just for Corn, Soybeans and Wheat futures. Friday we had that monthly number and as you can see, the anticipation in the Orange Juice market the day before Created a Gap on the price charts from $3.83 to $3.85 Orange Juice Futures have gone limit

 

 

For the past two days. 10 cents per 37,500 lbs on Monday and expanded limits today for an additional 20 cents or $7500.00 per contract. On Friday, WASDE reported a reduction of domestic production by 1 million Boxes of Oranges. A note about Gaps: The adage that all gaps eventually get filled might not always hold true, especially in the case of Breakaway and Runaway gaps. Waiting for breakout or runaway gaps to be filled can cripple your portfolio. This appears to be a bullish ,Breakaway Gap.

 

Holy Hot Wire Batman!

It seems there isn’t any copper to be found in Gotham, or is there?

The High Grade Copper market Jumped in the wake of a WSJ story titled Why the World has Gone Cuckoo for Copper  Court entanglements with the Panamanian Cobre Mine, in addition to UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the U.S. Vying for majority stakes of a large Zambian mining operation pushed The prices at the COMEX for the July Copper contract Rallied to an all time high of $5.0260 above the march 2022 High of 4.9375, However it looks like we are going to close a shade below that around the 4.88 area today. Watch this market.

Hot report for tomorrow

One of the most meaningful economic Data sets for FED decision makers , US April consumer price index (CPI) data will be released tomorrow pre-market and is forecast by analysts to be +0.4% month-to-month, compared to the previous month’s +0.4%. Core CPI on monthly terms is expected +0.3% in April compared to the prior month’s +0.4%.    CPI on annualized terms is forecast up +3.4% from the year ago, the core year-over-year figure is expected up +3.6%.

 

Day trading margins for the Equity products will, rightfully so, be increased in advance of potentially violent market reactions and will typically be returned to normal within 15 to 30 minutes following the release. Some , not all FCM’s

 

If you are a day trader, below you will see markets that our proprietary ALGO has identified as being more suitable for attacking either from the long side or the short side.

Questions? We are happy to help!

 

 

Daily Levels for May 15th, 2024

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


CPI, FOMC Minutes + Futures Trading Levels for 04.10.2024

April 9th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Economic Trading, Financial Futures, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading | Comment (0)

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CPI and FOMC minutes Tomorrow

CPI Tomorrow! The CPI will be critical to the inflation outlook for Fed policymakers.

 

Previous CPI reports have created velocity logic events in the stock indices at the CME.

 

Please read more details about velocity logic and price banding HERE.

 

The above reports will Bookend the FOMC minutes release @1pm CT on tomorrow.

My previous notes suggest to do the following if you are an index day trader:

Get out before the 730 AM CPI.

Wait for the smoke to clear.

Resume trading.

Look at market volume and behavior after 9:30 AM Central time to decide if and how to resume trading.

I usually stop trading and resume after 1 PM once FOMC minutes are out.

AGAIN…This is just my PERSONAL preferences…

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Levels for April 10th, 2024

Economic Reports
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


Weekly Hueber Report: Now is it time to worry? Trading Levels for March 27th

March 26th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Economic Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Trading Guide | Comment (0)

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The Following is analysis from Dan Hueber. You can find his analysis on Our QT Market Trading platform

 

Weekly Hueber Report: Now is it time to worry?

 

According to the Federal l Reserve Bank of New York, household debt in the United States grew by $212 billion to reach $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter of last year. The lion’s share of this debt is wrapped up in mortgages and home equity lines of credit, which grew $112 billion during the quarter and reached $12.25 trillion. Auto loans rose $12 billion to $1.61 trillion, and student loans were flat at around $1.6 trillion, but the most significant percentage growth came via credit cards, which jumped $50 billion to $1.13 trillion.

 

Do keep in mind that as the overall population continues to grow, it is only natural for debt to expand along with it. Still, when you add in the fact that savings went backward during that same period, it would appear that the American consumer is increasingly relying on debt to meet day-to-day needs and wants. I should point out that savings balances have not slipped to as low as they were during the second quarter of 2022 and remain relatively consistent with the period between 2010 and 2018. However, both the amount being tucked away and the personal savings rate have been trending lower again.

There is one more telling chart that we need to throw into the mix—the delinquency rate on credit cards. While nowhere near the nearly 7% level witnessed during the Great Recession or even the averages seen throughout much of the 1990s, it has been climbing steadily for the past two years and has risen to the highest level since the second quarter of 2011.

Granted, not all of this news has been bleak, at least not if you are in the banking sector. Last year, they reported an estimated $92 billion in earnings, and this after taking into account funding costs and loan losses. This is more than double what they were earning from credit cards a decade ago. As the old proverb says, one man’s poison is another man’s pleasure. While there are a number of other elements that factor into this, it should come as no surprise that recent surveys find that 41% of Americans believe they are worse off than four years ago. In case you were wondering, 24% say they are better off, and 34% said they were about the same. That still leaves the majority of people thinking that at least they have been holding their own, but these debt trends would appear to suggest that number may shrink in the months ahead.

**The views expressed above are entirely those of the author.

DH

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Levels for March 27th, 2024

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


What to expect on this short trading week? Trading Levels for March 26th

March 25th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Economic Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Trading, Trading Guide | Comment (0)

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What to expect on this short trading week?

With Good Friday coming up we will only have 4 days trading week.

Fed Chair Jay Powell said Wednesday that central bank officials discussed a strategy for how to slow the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet,

The plan to slow down the balance-sheet runoff could come as soon as May.

The Fed’s securities holdings topped out at $9 trillion in 2022 — the year it decided to pivot and act aggressively to tamp down rising inflation. The strategy is known as quantitative tightening, or QT. QE refers to the Fed buying assets to lower longer-term interest rates, and QT means the Fed is selling assets to put upward pressure on longer-term rates. QE is used when the Fed wants to stimulate the economy and reduce interest rates on longer-term securities. The Fed tried QT once before, starting in 2017, when Janet Yellen oversaw the central bank. That shrinking of its portfolio drained bank reserves held at the central bank and led to some unexpected turbulence in 2019 after Powell had taken over.

Expectations that the Fed would cut rates by June rose to around 75% in futures markets later Wednesday, up from closer to 50% earlier this week, according to CME Group.

What about the hot PPI and CPI reports that came in last week? The latest data haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes-bumpy road toward 2%.

Many economists and some inside the Fed anticipated that the central bank’s rate increases to bring inflation down would lead to higher unemployment and a recession. But economic growth has shown surprising resilience even as wage and price increases have slowed thanks to healed supply chains and an influx of workers into the labor force.

Using the Fed’s preferred gauge, inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices has fallen to around 2.8% recently, down from 4.8% one year ago.

FED said while officials didn’t “see this in the data right now,” a significant slowdown in the labor market “could also be a reason for us to begin the process of reducing rates.

Wage growth has continued to slow, and unemployment has steadily inched up, from 3.4% last April to 3.9% in February.

The stakes are high for Fed officials, who are trying to navigate two risks. One is that they ease too soon, allowing inflation to become entrenched at a level above their 2% target. The other is that they move too slowly and the economy crumples under the weight of higher rates.

The Summary of Economic Projections expects gross domestic product growth to hit 2.1% by the end of 2024, up from December’s 1.4% forecast.

Higher housing prices and stock-market gains are boosting wealth and thus supporting consumption, especially of high-income households. The price of bitcoin has recently surged to records, a sign of exuberant risk-taking.

Homebuilders ETF: XHB. Stocks – KBH, TOL, LEN.

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Levels for March 26th, 2024

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


PPI & Retails Sales + Trading Levels for March 14th

March 13th, 2024 Filed under Bitcoin Futures, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Economic Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, futures trading education, Trading Guide | Comment (0)

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Market Overview for the last 2 trading days of the week

By Mark O’Brien

Heads up:

 

Keep an eye out for the second of this week’s inflation reports: the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index.  The report will be released tomorrow, 7:30 A.M., Central Time.

 

Energy:   

 

This morning, the Energy Information Agency released its weekly crude oil stocks report and the data was a bullish curveball showing a surprise withdrawal in U.S. crude inventories and a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. gasoline stocks.  April RBOB gasoline futures rose over seven cents as of this typing – a ±$3,000 per contract move – up to ±$2.66 per gallon, close to 6-month highs.  Spurring the price increase, Ukrainian drone attacks struck several oil refining facilities in Russia for the second day, damaging its refining capacity

Metals:   

 

In concert with the month-long slump in the U.S. dollar and a lingering expectation the Fed will reduce borrowing costs this June, today gold is chipping away at its ±$20 sell-off Monday and poised to around its prior all-time high close (basis April): $2,188.60/oz.  As of this typing, April gold is ±$2,177.00.

 

Indexes: 

 

All three major stock indexes have sustained trading near their all-time highs this week – after the Personal Consumption & Expenditures Price Index on April 1st (the Fed’s preferred U.S. inflation gauge), February’s non-farm payrolls last Friday and Tuesday’s higher-than-expected CPI reading yesterday.  As of this typing, prices are mixed ahead of tomorrow’s release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index.

 

Softs: 

 

So far, the king of all-time highs this week is not Bitcoin (see below).  It’s Cocoa.  The May cocoa contract broke above $7,000/ton, nearly $2,000/ton higher over the last month – a ±$20,000 per contract move, including today’s 361-point ($3,6010) move today – with “no top in sight,” stated by The Hightower Report.

 

Crypto:

 

March Bitcoin futures are set to close at a new all-time high above 73,000 today.  With the Bitcoin ETF now trading, remember that the world’s largest futures and options exchange – the CME Group – offers Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin futures and options with efficient price discovery in transparent futures markets, prices based on the regulated CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) and easily traded on your supported trading platform.  Make it your choice for managing cryptocurrency risk.

 

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan

 

Watch video below on how to rollover from March to June contracts if you are a stock index trader on our E-Futures Platform!

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Levels for March 14th, 2024

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

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