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Stock Index futures were significantly lower today but bounced sharply off support levels, news sources cited “buy program” – I mentioned this to a client who asked me what the hell does it mean….
My speculation is that large institution had a “resting order” to buy at that levels, perhaps
GTC order , perhaps new order but that was able to absorb all selling pressure and then price went higher, triggered more short covering, fueled intraday buying and helped an impressive intraday reversal.
Two big questions I have:
Am I correct?
What’s next?
My speculation is as long as we can hold today’s lows, higher prices are path of least resistance.
Break below and it is a different ball game…..
I asked my colleague, John Thorpe for his feedback:
Why the buy programs? an over simplification is where we have been.. take a look at that low we got the bounce from.. and April 6th back in collegiate statistics 101 one of the first things we learn are the differences and applications of the Mean, the median and the mode… using the 4450 area this number satisfies the definition of the median and the mode if we begin taking our data points from the beginning of Q1 2021 for at least the last 6 months 4450 is the midpoint. it’s not that hard see why that is a critical area for the current market and potentially why, when the market got down to that level, Buy programs engaged. this is not to say this is a Fed put. what it does align with are the similarities between where the market was back on august , 31st 2021 and on the open 2 11 22. remember when the
ES tested 4200 six times and successfully rallied? a close greater than 4500.00 is the goal and could be the springboard to a significantly higher move and, it may be possible there is a seasonal component too. all markets like to test and retest areas where they have been before. this is no different.
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04-08-2022
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