Geo Political Events Pose Risks? & Futures Support and Resistance Levels 2.14.2022
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
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Are GeoPolitical Risks Factored into FOMC Decisions?
By John Thorpe, Cannon Trading Senior Broker
Data Dependent? Will Crude Oil
and Grain Prices
weigh on Fed Minutes? and is this data relevant in the Fed’s decision making process? This Wednesday @ 2PM eastern the Federal Reserve Board releases to the public the Minutes from the January 25-26th meeting. we will find out the answers on Wednesday and the market will react. 1. Yes they had an announcement on the 26th about rates and 2. Yes a statement was released on the 26th that included this language ” The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.” and Yes the Federals Open Market Committee on the 26th disclosed it’s “principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance sheet” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
These however are not the Minutes of the Meeting, which , when released on Wednesday are market movers. Traders and Analysts copiously review the language used, looking for clues to Policy. The Minutes do include the complete economic analysis compiled by officials and whether or not Members had voiced opposition to the majority of the group If the FOMC minutes reveal inflation related pressure from a breach of the nationalized borders of Ukraine by Russia, the concerns will not only effect and Impact the world Crude Oil market, but will inevitably impact global prices of Grain, namely Wheat. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, after Russia and is a major producer and exporter of Wheat, Maize, Barley and Oats and account for 16% of world grain exports according to SGS; a global grain inspection company and commodity consultancy firm.
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