Grain Futures News & Information on Cannon Trading

Grain Futures

Category Archives: Grain Futures

Different grains are traded on the Index, as commodities. Wheat, corn, soybeans, canola and soybean meal are just a few examples. They can be either a short-hedge or a long-hedge. One of the most traded grain futures is corn.

Basically, buying or selling these forms of futures enables the buyers and sellers to lock in prices of the specified grain today for the items that are to be delivered in the future. Therefore, all those who are interested in grains futures must track the performance of the grain on the demand and supply graph as well as its performance on the index. Though it is not tough to understand grains futures, the calculation of risk and returns is something that an average person may leave for an expert to do.

We at Cannon Trading are there to help you to not just understand the markets well, but to act as your personal advisors when it comes to trading futures. And, that’s something that applies for grain futures as well. However, information and awareness come before anything else. That is why, we want you to read through all of these blogs and articles carefully before you decide whether you want to trade grain futures or not.


Coffee, Hope, Probability + Levels for May 7th

May 6th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures | Comment (0)

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Coffee, Hope & Probability….

 

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

In lieu of a light Data and fed speaker wee, we have a relatively heavy earnings week but none of the magnificent seven reporting, so here goes with a few words on the Coffee Futures Market.

 

After the July coffee market rallied to contract highs April 16th.. @245.50

A target based on price count theory had been met and there was a low probability of the rally extending much higher.

When we got the corrective trade and price action took us down below the 21 day MA at the 220.00 area, , this market , for us, showed the rally was over for the time being.

It certainly looks like the price action wants to get back down into the channel between 198.00 and 175.00 as it was uncomfortable at the higher price levels above 200  , due to the steep sell off from the mid-April highs I would look for a corrective rally before we continue back into the comfort zone.

Seasonality:  Southern Hemisphere coffees have already been harvested; Northern hemisphere coffee beans be ripe for the picking in Early Summer to Mid Fall.

The crop was better than expected in the southern hemisphere and the Northern hemisphere weather is tempering…  unless there becomes a disease scare or a sudden drought the next few months, I would anticipate Coffee Bean prices to moderate further, working lower and testing the bottom of the range.

 

Above we Referenced “probability

The difference between probability and hope

Is that probability is the state of being probable; likelihood.. While hope is the belief or expectation that something wished for can or will happen.

Probability is usually stated between 0 and 1 , One reflecting the highest probability of an event occurring and zero meaning no chance the event will occur.

We avoid Hope in our trading decisions.

 

 

Daily Levels for May 6th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


Bullet Points, Highlights + Levels for May 3rd

May 2nd, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures | Comment (0)

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Bullet Points & Highlights:

  • Today Coffee and Cocoa were down considerably again, Cocoa closing at the lowest level since Mid March @ $75.63 That’s $43.00 off the Contract all time highs less than 2 weeks ago.
  • It Looks like the Soy Complex is lifting off with July Beans 28 cents higher and Soymeal $16.00 higher

  • Next week will again be a heavy Earnings Week
  • Next week a quiet Econ Data week

 

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Daily Levels for May 3rd, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


Weather markets, Economic data and earnings reports + Levels for April 30th

April 29th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures | Comment (0)

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Weather markets, Economic data and earnings reports creating Volatility in many market: Week Ahead

 

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

  • FOMC Rate Announcement Wed.
  • Heavy Earnings, AMZN and AMD Tues, AAPL Thur. all after the close
  • Heavy Data, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Jobless Claims and NON FARM Payrolls to cap off the week on Fri. , preopening

 

 

After a record setting rally in the Cocoa market this year due to a number of factors including dry weather, disease and shuttering of processing plants due to a lack of a meaningful crop; the cocoa market reversed course today and literally melted down to a 3 week low as a shift toward wetter weather over the west African growing region pushed the Price of July Cocoa under the 21 day moving average of $101.16. Highs of $117.92 were reached 10 days ago only to see the market today close down $14.51 TO $91.73 and if you are counting, today’s move alone was a whopping $14,510.00 lower than Friday’s closing price. That’s a Weather market!

 

Domestically Wheat was Up 10% last week and down 2.25% today, that’s still 28 cents above it’s 21 day moving average.

 

 

Here is a worthy read about the “Nature of Weather Markets”

Historically, a pivotal timeframe for the grain futures markets has been right around the U.S. Independence Day holiday in early July. Existing price trends in the grain futures markets can be reversed or accelerated during this critical juncture of the U.S. growing season–especially for corn. Indeed, mid- to late-July typically finds the hottest weather of the year in the Corn Belt. This time period coincides with the extreme-heat-sensitive pollination stage of corn crop development. August is the most critical growing month for U.S. soybeans.

Says Conrad Leslie, the longtime and highly respected crop forecaster and market commentator: “Following the July Fourth holiday period, those who are interested in soybean and corn prices and production estimates look to the skies for the next two months for weather developments. Historical statistics indicate crops can either improve or decline….”

As an historical example, 1988 was a major drought year in the Midwest that saw corn and soybean futures prices skyrocket. It was on a Friday in July that saw corn and soybean futures prices trade sharply higher, based on ideas the hot and dry weather would continue in the U.S. Corn Belt. Then, after the close of grain futures Friday afternoon, the National Weather Service issued its 6-10 day forecast that, sure enough, called for more hot and dry weather for the Corn Belt. Corn and soybean bulls confidently headed home for the weekend.

On Monday morning, the updated weather forecasts had changed a bit, but more importantly, trader psychology had changed immensely. The drought and resulting poor U.S. corn and soybean yields had all been factored into the market with prior price gains, culminating with that Friday’s big push higher. Corn and bean markets traded limit down on Monday and recorded very sharp losses for around three days in a row.

One trader who used contrary opinion thinking during that timeframe purchased put options on corn futures that Friday in which prices were pushing higher. He made a good deal of money that next week.

Weather markets in grains many times provide a classic example of futures traders “factoring in” fundamental events well before they actually occur. For example, in the big drought year of 1988, the soybean crop was most damaged during the months of July and August. Yet, futures prices that year topped out the third week in June.

Finally, trading the grains in a summertime weather market can be just plain fun. Those traders who don’t have expensive “real-time” newswire feeds or other connections right to the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade can still log-in to the internet and go to CannonTradings website www.cannontrading.com for daily price and news updates. Or you can listen to the Midwest weather forecasts and ag news on the radio–or look at weather maps on the weather websites on the Internet.

 

Daily Levels for April 30th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


GDP Tomorrow, Earnings Season in Full Play  + Levels for April 25th

April 24th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Corn Futures, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures | Comment (0)

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A few tips for tomorrow:

  • If you are trading stock index futures, note price action has been VERY choppy during the day session as most earnings come out after the close…
  • Coffee and Coca volatility is as high as I have seen in recent months. Large intraday and overnight moves in both, as much as +/- 8% per day!
  • We have GDP and home sales tomorrow.
  • Big pullback in both silver and gold and the key question is: Was this profit taking/ deflation of geo political fear and GOOD entry to the long side? OR…is this the near term top for both markets??
  • Corn daily chart for your review below.

 

 

Daily Levels for April 25th, 2024

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


Coffee Outlook, Beige Book and Crude Oil Numbers + Levels for April 17th

April 16th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures, Indices | Comment (0)

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Powell spoke and stock index futures traded in a volatile, zig zag type of trading most of the day unable to break one way or the other and closing near the unchange.

On the daily chart, both the SP and NASDAQ are noticing more pressure to the downside.

One of the keys for day Traders is to try and establish early on what type of day trading environment they are in.

Is this going to be a trend day it is this going to be a choppy low volatility trading day? is the day unfolding has a potential to be a volatile two-sided type of trading day?

Being aware of the top of trading day that is unfolding in front of you can help you decide which strategies to apply on that trading day.

Knowing what reports are coming out. the general direction of the long term charts can help you.

Different strategies will work better in different type of trading environments.

On a different note, softs, i.e. Cocoa, cotton, Coffee , Sugar, OJ are experiencing much higher volatility than historical norms. Cocoa just dropped close to 8% today after trading above the historical mark of $100 per metric ton.

below you will see a daily chart of Coffee futures and possible future direction.

 

 

 

 

Daily Levels for April 17th, 2024

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

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