Grain Futures News & Information on Cannon Trading

Category Archives: Grain Futures

Different grains are traded on the Index, as commodities. Wheat, corn, soybeans, canola and soybean meal are just a few examples. They can be either a short-hedge or a long-hedge. One of the most traded grain futures is corn.

Basically, buying or selling these forms of futures enables the buyers and sellers to lock in prices of the specified grain today for the items that are to be delivered in the future. Therefore, all those who are interested in grains futures must track the performance of the grain on the demand and supply graph as well as its performance on the index. Though it is not tough to understand grains futures, the calculation of risk and returns is something that an average person may leave for an expert to do.

We at Cannon Trading are there to help you to not just understand the markets well, but to act as your personal advisors when it comes to trading futures. And, that’s something that applies for grain futures as well. However, information and awareness come before anything else. That is why, we want you to read through all of these blogs and articles carefully before you decide whether you want to trade grain futures or not.

Crude Oil Plunge, Tropical Storm Francine, and Tomorrow’s CPI – Movers and Shakers

September 10th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures, Trading Guide | Comment (0)

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Movers and shakers!

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Oil took a $2.40 nosedive when OPEC announced a smaller than expected demand growth forecast for 2025. Flirting with the low end of the 25 month old range, October crude held it’s ground around $66.00/bbl , a mere dollar from the springtime 2023 lows.

Tropical Storm Francine landfall, Basel III Endgame, and tomorrows big number (hint, CPI)

Tonight: Debate for the Presidency 8 p.m. Central.

Today’s News:

Updated: September 10, 2024 5:30 am

**NFIB August US small business optimism index: 91.2 ; prior month 93.7

Updated: September 10, 2024 5:51 am

Chinese customs data released Tuesday showed they imported a record 12.14 mln mt of Soybeans during August 2024, up +29% over August 2023 imports. January through August 2024 soy imports are 70.48 mln mt, up +2.8% over the same period in 2023.

Updated: September 10, 2024 7:01 am

**OPEC cut their 2024 worldwide crude oil demand growth forecast to 2.03 mln bpd from the previous 2.11 mln bpd

Updated: September 10, 2024 7:55 am

Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +6.5% in the first week of September 2024 vs September 2023

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +6.5% in the week ending September 7 vs yr ago week

Updated: September 10, 2024 9:21 am

*Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Bank Supervision Barr Tuesday said he’ll recommend regulators re-propose “Basel endgame” and worldwide systemically important bank surcharge capital rules. Seeks to exempt banks under $250 billion in assets from most new requirements, and update for changes to inflation and economic growth

Updated: September 10, 2024 12:26 pm

Shell on Tuesday said they’ve shuttered oil production at their Perdido, Aug er and Enchilada/Salsa platforms in the Gulf of Mexico due to downstream impacts from TS Francine

Updated: September 10, 2024 12:49 pm

On Tuesday, the Port of New Orleans said terminal operations will be shuttered as tropical storm Francine approaches the Louisiana coast, and following damage assessments, they expect operations to resume on Sept 12th.

Updated: September 10, 2024 12:51 pm

Energy industry sources say Exxon Mobil ahead of the tropical storm is reducing their Baton Rouge refinery production, but plans to operate the facility with minimum staff levels.

Watch Tomorrow’s Movers and Shakers:

CPI Consumer Price Index @ 7:30 am CDT.

Consensus Outlook

Overall prices are expected to rise 0.2 percent in August that would match the as-expected 0.2 percent rise in July. Core prices also increased an as-expected 0.2 percent in July with August’s consensus also at 0.2 percent. Annual rates, which in July were 2.9 percent overall and 3.2 percent for the core (both 1 tenth lower than June), are expected at 2.6 and 3.2 percent, respectively.

Earnings: very quiet, only 22 firms reporting

Daily Levels for September 11, 2024

December-March Meal Spread

The Dec-March meal spread corrected after completing its first downside PriceCount objective last month. Now, the chart is threatening to break down and resume its slide. New sustained lows from here would project a possible run to the second count to the -7.3 area.

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Economic Reports

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

“Voice from the Tomb”: Legendary Grain Trader’s Seasonal Wisdom Revealed

June 25th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Corn Futures, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures | Comment (0)

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In light of this weeks impactful “Grain Stocks” report out Friday morning

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker:

This 8 ½ x 11, well worn, sheet of paper version has been pinned to the corkboard in my office for decades and is worth a share. Called “Voice from the Tomb”, I have noticed a web page dedicated solely to this Myth or Non Fiction? Lore or Fact? and his experiences following the execution dates.

It’s interesting to contemplate the prospective impact of following the note left to family members, in light of some of the upcoming dates provided. What follows is simply a brief of the contents, feel free to google search the topic to follow the trader’s experiences, you too may end up saving the primary authors advice.

Voice From The Tomb

This is the legend of a wise grain trader that made a fortune trading “seasonals” in the pits of the Chicago Board of Trade.

“After his wife died, a millionaire grain trader dedicated his life to raising their children. The children were lazy and thought they’d inherit all of their father’s money. He felt that his children were wasteful and believed they took him for granted. When he died, all the money went to charity. All he left them in his will were the following dates of when to buy and sell. The will said that if they strictly followed his advice, they’d have the fortunes they always thought were going to drop in their laps.”

So what is a “seasonal”? “Seasonality often plays a part in determining prices for commodities in regular cycles throughout the year. Normal increases and decreases in supply and demand for particular commodities seem to occur every year in fairly consistent patterns. Commodity seasonal patterns might appear to be an easy trading strategy for commodities, but seasonal tendencies are just that – tendencies.” Chuck Kowalski

Sell March Wheat on January 10
Buy May and/or July Wheat on February 22
Sell July Wheat on May 10
Buy December Wheat on July 1
Sell December Wheat on September 10
Buy March Wheat on November 28

Corn

Buy July Corn on March 1
Sell July Corn on May 20
Buy December Corn on June 25
Sell December and March Corn on August 10

Disclaimers:

* Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in the futures trading market can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.

** SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MORE CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONAL THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES TRADING MARKETS TO REACT IN A SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE YEAR. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES, AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST OR WILL IN THE FUTURE ACHIEVE PROFITS UTILIZING THESE STRATEGIES. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE.

If you are a day trader, below you will see markets that our proprietary ALGO has identified as being more suitable for attacking either from the long side or the short side for the next trading session.

Questions? We are happy to help!

Daily Levels for June 26th, 2024

Economic Reports

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Sharp Declines in Cocoa and Bitcoin Futures Kick Off the Week

June 24th, 2024 Filed under Bitcoin Futures, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures | Comment (0)

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Two markets stood out to start the week, both with a sharp, negative move.

Cocoa was down 12.5%! or the equivalent of -$10,000 if you were on the wrong side…..

Bitcoin futures also finished the day down 7.5% and now trading below the psychological 60,000 level.

Major reports for the week ahead below as well as tomorrow’s specific trading levels for major markets and detailed reports for June 25th.

Questions? We are happy to help!

Daily Levels for June 25th, 2024

Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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The Week Ahead + Levels for May 21st

May 20th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures, Trading Wheat Futures | Comment (0)

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Monday Market wrap

By John Thorpe, Senior broker

July orange juice continued to make contract highs @ 4.5325 but couldn’t hang on to that historic level and closed down@ 4.4595 down $2.50

Batman where did all the Copper go?

Where is the supply of this non ferrous asset Robin?

Supply tightness globally has changed market sentiment to “you can’t bring copper onto the market quickly” continued concerns about the ability to ramp up production in Panama, Peru and Chile are being reflected in historic highs and a continuing increase in longs from Friday’s CFTC Commitment of trader’s report.

The Gluten is back! And the Wheat is rising!

SRW Chicago Wheat saw its prices move near “limit Up” with the July contract closing up 5.64% or 36 ¼ cents or $1800.00 per contract at $6.88 per bushel. ( limit up in all wheat contracts is .40 https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/price-limits.html )

The HRW KC Wheat was not far behind, up 34 cents and the Minneapolis spring wheat Rallied .27 ¾.

Weather remains the key driver of the moment as ongoing dryness and the recent frost/freeze events turning to hot weather in S Russia and surrounding crop areas in Ukraine and Kazakhstan are further trimming wheat and canola production ideas Here at home, waves of rain have slowed the pace of planting which is adding to the overall row crop supply side anxiety in the trade where funds have been working to get less short this month. For this afternoon’s crop progress report. We look for Spring wheat to advance from 61% planted last week to 75% vs. 73% average. Winter wheat conditions steady at 50% G/E.

These are Weather markets , talk to your broker about seasonal price tendencies and they are just that, tendencies.

Stocks are holding firm, waiting for the FOMC minutes to be read on Wednesday.

Gold and Silver are clearly in an inflationary trance, expect higher volatility to continue for weeks to come.

Memorial Day is next Monday, see schedule below.

Questions? We are happy to help!

Daily Levels for May 21st, 2024

Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Coffee, Hope, Probability + Levels for May 7th

May 6th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures | Comment (0)

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Coffee, Hope & Probability….

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

In lieu of a light Data and fed speaker wee, we have a relatively heavy earnings week but none of the magnificent seven reporting, so here goes with a few words on the Coffee Futures Market.

After the July coffee market rallied to contract highs April 16^th.. @245.50

A target based on price count theory had been met and there was a low probability of the rally extending much higher.

When we got the corrective trade and price action took us down below the 21 day MA at the 220.00 area, , this market , for us, showed the rally was over for the time being.

It certainly looks like the price action wants to get back down into the channel between 198.00 and 175.00 as it was uncomfortable at the higher price levels above 200 , due to the steep sell off from the mid-April highs I would look for a corrective rally before we continue back into the comfort zone.

Seasonality: Southern Hemisphere coffees have already been harvested; Northern hemisphere coffee beans be ripe for the picking in Early Summer to Mid Fall.

The crop was better than expected in the southern hemisphere and the Northern hemisphere weather is tempering… unless there becomes a disease scare or a sudden drought the next few months, I would anticipate Coffee Bean prices to moderate further, working lower and testing the bottom of the range.

Above we Referenced “probability

The difference between probability and hope

Is that probability is the state of being probable; likelihood.. While hope is the belief or expectation that something wished for can or will happen.

Probability is usually stated between 0 and 1 , One reflecting the highest probability of an event occurring and zero meaning no chance the event will occur.

We avoid Hope in our trading decisions.