Rest of the Trading Week: What to Watch Out For + Trading Levels for August 3rd 2023

Rest of the Trading Week, by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

The answer is: Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Singapore and Australia.

The question is: name the remaining countries whose credit is rated AAA by all three ratings companies – S&P Global, Fitch and Moody’s – after Fitch downgraded the United States’ debt rating from its top-tier AAA, down to AA+.

Among the contributing factors leading to the downgrade, Fitch cited, “the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance . . . that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.”

Remember in 2011, even though at that time a debt-limit deal was reached, S&P Global lowered the U.S.’s credit rating from AAA down to AA+ and it has not recovered since.

Canada is rated AAA by two of the ratings companies.

Stock Indexes:

Probably not surprisingly, as of this typing, stock indexes reacted negatively to the ratings news with the E-mini Dow Jones losing more than 300 points, roughly a 2% haircut. The E-mini Nasdaq is off ±325 points, a similar 2% correction.

Energy:

As the stock market foundered, crude oil felt weak in the knees as well and by mid-session, the September contract had sold off $3.00 per barrel from its Sunday opening. This despite today’s EIA crude oil stocks report showing a 17 million barrel reduction in U.S. crude stocks; the largest drop in inventories since 1982.

Grains:

After trading within 13 cents of its April 2022 highs last week, November soybeans factored in an expected conga line of wet weather fronts moving broadly over the U.S. Midwest and sold off ±$1.00 down to ±$13.25/bushel, a $5,000 per contract move, the bulk of which comprised just three trading sessions. Estimates for this year’s crop are a virtual wild card given the approach of August, its most critical growing period, so expect volatile price movement throughout.