Crude Oil and Natural Gas Tomorrow & Trading levels for 01.19.2023
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
Bullet Points, Highlights and Announcements
By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
General: Even in the face of solid COVID uncertainty for China, a persistent fear that the Fed will overtighten and that a recession is looming here in the U.S., there are some green shoots (thank you to former U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont for coining that term back in ‘91) to indicate signs of improvement for the economy, including growing sentiment that the beginning of the end for rising interest rates – and inflation – is on the horizon.
Take commodity prices for example.
Several that are in tight supply are now responding by tracking higher as a result of modest improvements in demand for their manufactured products. Copper prices – historically viewed as a leading indicator – are up over 30% in the last six months, including a ±14% increase this month so far. Silver is up ±25% since Sept. to year-ago prices around $24/oz. Crude oil has pressed upwards above ±$80/barrel, ±$10 higher this month and on par with prices from last Feb.
At the same time, these higher prices for industrial products have helped keep inflation readings – CPI, PPI notably – stubbornly high with only slight signs of downward movement in the last few releases. This is almost certainly narrowing the runway on which the “Fed Pivot” will eventually use to try landing the economy as softly as possible this year.
Energies: Heads up! As opposed to most weeks when they’re released on Wednesday and Thursday, this week’s Energy Information Agency reports on natural gas storage and crude oil supplies will be released on the same day: tomorrow at 9:30 A.M. and 10:00 A.M., Central Time, respectively. That’s natural gas storage first, followed by crude oil supplies. The Martin Luther King Day holiday effected this schedule change.
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