Crude Oil Futures Market Outlook, Jobs Data and More
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
The rest of the week in futures markets:
By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
Today’s FOMC trading volume on the ES was one of the lowest I ever seen o an FOMC day!!
Over the weekend of April 1-2 – one month ago, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers announced cuts in their collective crude oil output that amounted to about a million barrels per day. Prior to the announcement – a surprise before the group’s ministerial panel meeting on Monday where analysts expected the oil cartel would hold steady on production – front month crude oil futures had dropped to near 15-month lows approaching $70 barrel. At Sunday’s opening of trading, crude prices gapped up over $5.00 per barrel.
If as some analysts surmised after the cuts were announced, which was that OPEC+ was taking pre-emptive steps in case of any possible demand reduction, they were dead on. Since then, renewed fears of recession in the U.S. (seemingly a constant over the last 12 months or so) have once again stoked demand fears in the energy sector. June crude oil futures have since filled the price gap created on that Sunday opening in early April and have continued falling. As of this typing, crude has sliced ±$15.00 off its post-announcement high, through $70.00 per barrel and is currently hovering near $69.00. Even this week’s news of another Iranian seizure of a foreign-flagged oil tanker in the Persian Gulf and yesterday’s much-larger-than-expected decline in crude oil stocks – 3.9 million barrels – failed to quell bearish sentiment. Keep an eye on this Friday’s jobs data as the report now stands in front of a significant crude oil sell-off with the numbers more capable than usual to drive the direction of crude oil near-term.
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