Posted By: Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
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Focus on Soybeans:
In 2019 the world produced about 12 billion bushels of soybeans
, or about 367 million tons. Give or take, that’s not far from the last five years’ production. Unlike decades past, when the United States lead the world in soybean
production, now about half of the world’s soybeans are grown on farms in five countries in South America: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay. So, it should be no surprise that the price of U.S.-grown soybeans
is influenced by South American soybean prices.
This is acutely the case in recent weeks. While U.S. farmers are just readying farmland for this year’s crop, the South American crop is well on its way and yield and quality estimates for this crop year are being tallied as the region moves towards harvest. Weather forecasts have recently turned drier to exacerbate a lack of rain early in the crop year and traders expect to see significant damage to the crop. This was not evident in the
latest USDA world supply/demand report released Jan. 12. Since then, soybeans for March delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade have advance ±10% from ±$14.00/bushel to ±$15.50, prices not seen since last June. Expect outsize price moves in the coming weeks.
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Posted in: Future Trading News | Grain Futures