FOMC Minutes ahead of Friday NFP & Trading Levels for 01.05.2023
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
Bullet Points, Highlights and Announcements
By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
“I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not, and if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during his FOMC news conference back in mid-December. “It’s not knowable.”
And with this in mind, it’s not far-fetched to expect the markets that have been most disrupted in recent years will to continue to ricochet in 2023.
Policymakers will continue to try to guess what lies ahead and they’ll continue to make predictions by looking at historical data, which has always been critical to those who make those predictions. Flying in the face of that approach is that over the last three years – roughly the duration of the pandemic – the past is proving anything but a reliable guide.
The economy rebounded from the hit it incurred at the onset of the coronavirus – faster and stronger than expected. Then, shortages of goods collided with strong demand and fueled a burst in inflation, one that has been both more extreme and more stubborn than anticipated.
Now, we have a year in which the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980’s – in their efforts to slow growth and bring those rapid price increases back under control. The war in Ukraine has and will almost certainly continue to impact energy and grain prices. And with China’s Covid policy charting an unclear future for the world’s second largest economy, the future is still extraordinarily uncertain.
Will the Fed’s policies spur a recession? Or, will the economy gently cool down, taming high inflation in the process? How will commodity prices react? Commodities futures traders, Central bankers, economists, the current administration’s officials all will be trying to guess what might lie ahead for the economy in 2023.
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