GDP Numbers Tomorrow! + Futures Trading Levels for 01.25.24

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GDP

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

We frequently provide overviews of certain futures markets and their price outlook in the context of our country’s economic outlook – and with good reason. The U.S. ranks no. 1 in GDP at ± $20 trillion annually based on the most recent data available from the World Bank. But as far as futures traders should be concerned, the country that should be watched is China.

China’s GDP of ±$17 trillion (2021 est.) is second in the world and accounts for around 18% of the global economy. It has been the world’s largest manufacturing nation since 2010, the second largest in high-tech manufacturing since 2012, is the world’s leader in electric vehicle consumption and production and it leads the world in e-commerce, accounting for over 37% of the global market share in 2021. For 124 other countries, China is the number on trading partner. Notable for commodity traders, China is the world’s biggest importer of natural resources. Think crude oil (no. 1 at ±10 million barrels a day), coal (no. 1), iron ore and copper (no. 1 at 58% of the world’s imports). It’s the number one wheat and corn importer. It imports a staggering 65% of the world’s soybean production (no. 1). China accounts for roughly 30% of world’s beef imports (no. 1 at over 6 billion pounds annually and almost twice that of no. 2 U.S.)

China is truly one of the most consequential players in international trade, a primary force for commodities prices. If you trade commodity futures, their economic health – or lack of – is worthy of your attention.