Choppy Markets Today, (Tomorrow?) Ahead of CPI + Futures Trading Levels for 04.09.2024
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
Markets Heat up MidWeek
by John Thorpe, Senior Broker
CPI Report Wednesday
The CPI report for March 2024 will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Monday at 7:30 a.m. CDT. As of February’s CPI report, annual inflation is 3.2%, or 3.8% excluding food and energy. That data compares with the FOMC’s annual inflation target of 2%.
What To Expect
These data set move the Equity, Bond, Metals and currency markets the most as the market drivers are directly related to what the FED will do next with Interest rates this summer. Provided inflation comes at a monthly rate close to 0.3% or lower for March, that should be sufficient for the FOMC to keep its plan to start cutting interest rates this summer. If the report shows a 0.4% monthly increase or greater, that would be a concern. It would suggest relatively high inflation readings seen in January, and to a lesser extent in February, are perhaps more of a trend. Here is your BLS CPI Data center https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Monthly inflation at or below 0.2% would generally be considered positive news, perhaps giving more conviction to rate cutting plans. Still the CPI release is just one data point that the Fed will use to assess how inflation is trending. The FOMC will also keep a close eye on the jobs market, which so far has been strong enough to enable the Fed to be patient in considering interest rate cuts. A slowdown in job growth might matter for the Fed’s plans as much as upcoming inflation data releases.
Daily Levels for April 9th, 2024
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
