Posted By: Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
Gold Futures Analysis
Taking a closer look at gold futures analysis, price and prediction, the CME gold futures contract (GC) is one of the most actively traded on the exchange marketplace. Each contract represents 100 troy ounces (see contract for specs) with a tick value of $10 or .10 per ounce. The CME continues to provide accessibility for smaller traders by offering contract sizes such as the Micro gold futures (MGC). Standing at 1/10th the size of the aforementioned, with a tick value of $1, the MGC provides accessibility to those who may size their positions incrementally. Both contracts are actively traded, providing good liquidity to market participants.
Whether the standard applies or not, gold continues to be a popular choice for investors and traders alike. In gold futures analysis, the market participants of gold futures are diverse. People across the world hedging, speculating, and doing business with the hope of a better future. Though volatile at times, gold has a record of recovery after periods of price adversity. Inflationary concerns and looming world conflict have once again sent gold futures careening toward all-time highs. In a time where Bitcoin and other cryptos continue to draw attention from those pursuing extraordinary returns, metal investors seem to have enjoyed relative stability and growth since the COVID-19 crisis. Gold looks poised to once again push upward as investors and traders seek financial solace from the anticipated Russia/Ukraine military conflict.
From a technical analysis perspective, gold appears to be testing the upper side of a price consolidation that’s lasted for nearly a year. Assuming continued strength, one could argue that gold will top $2,000 an ounce this year and possibly make a new all-time high. If conflict materializes and broad-market weakness presents, the negative beta correlation of gold to the S&P500 may create buying pressure.
Price & Prediction
Taking this into consideration, it’s important for traders like you to brace for multiple scenarios when doing a gold futures analysis, with price and prediction. All signs point upward for gold, which means it can be useful to reflect and prepare for something less obvious. Ironically, like a punishment for the preemptive celebration of traders and investors, when things seem a shoo-in, adversity reveals itself. Make a plan for when things don’t go your way. Gold may retest $2,000/ounce and fall back into price consolidation, or reverse and press downward. Any number of scenarios could play out, and only time will tell. You must consider these and more factors when looking at gold futures analysis, price and prediction. Those prepared with reactive risk management solutions, active at finding low risk/high reward trading opportunities will succeed.
Within the gold futures, speculative traders skilled in order flow/tape reading should find intraday opportunities. While swing traders and portfolio-style risk managers may utilize gold futures to hedge or manage their broad market exposure. Directionally focused swing/position trading continues to be viable option for disciplined traders as well. The critical element to success tends to be risk management, regardless of trading style.
Nowadays cryptocurrency has taken the world by storm. Outsized returns and the hope of instant success draw a crowd. It seems an era of new-school vs. old-school, but caution is advised. For millennia our species has valued gold. Bitcoin was created in 2009. It can be argued that the cryptocurrency market is still in its initial price discovery phase. Please consider that strong value can be found outside of what’s considered trendy or popular. It’s ironic that gold seems less glamorous these days. Be sure to do your due diligence, and remember what they say about all that glitters….Happy Trading!
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Author: Josh Meyers, Broker at Cannon Trading Company
Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. Therefore, recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. There is not an actual account trading these recommendations and past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.