Core PCE Tomorrow + Futures Trading Levels for Nov. 30th

Updates and Bullet Points:

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General: 

While the Federal Reserve and its main voice Jerome Powell have been steadfast in declaring that interest rates would not be coming down unless the FOMC saw broad definitive proof that inflation was falling, traders have been pricing in that eventuality since the end of October. In just the last three weeks, the E-mini S&P 500 climbed out of correction territory and the yield on the 10-year T-note slid from the 5.00% it touched prior to the last Fed meeting down to 4.30% overnight. Never mind the CME Fed watch tool pegs the potential for a 25-basis points rate cut at the Fed’s December 13th meeting at a slim 1.1% and at 3.1% at their January 31st meeting. What likely has traders’ attention: the Fed Funds futures contract sees the probability of a 25-basis point cut at the March 20th Fed meeting at 40.6%. Don’t count on to begin to telegraph any sort of pivot until the Fed deems any signs of slowing growth as entrenched and that should take some time. The Fed will turn a cold shoulder to making quick moves as they do not want to reignite the inflation fire before it is extinguished.

Currency:

As the conversation shifts from rate hikes to cuts, the U.S. dollar is on track to hit its lowest level in months.

Metals:

In the scenario that the dollar and treasury yields continue to fall, look for precious metals like gold and silver to continue their ascent. Gold has already climbed over $200 per ounce in less than two months, from its October 5th close at $1850.80 / ounce to its second day closing above $2050 / ounce yesterday and today (basis February) – a ±$20,000 per contract move for the standard 100-oz. futures contract.