ELECTIONS MARGINS UPDATE, Managing Event Risk Around the 2020 US Election & Futures Levels 11.03.2020
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
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- In 2016, price volatility spiked eight weeks prior to the election, followed by a downtrend.
- In 2016, this downtrend stopped (and reversed course) on election day and in the days after.
- Price volatility peaked on election night, and it took approximately 10 business days to revert back to the same levels as 10 days prior to the election.
- The expanding trading range pattern prior to the election appears to be following a similar trajectory in 2020.
- Despite the similarity in trend, the trading range in 2020 is wider compared to 2016.
- In Gold, we saw a similar tightening of trading ranges, similar to E-mini S&P 500 and the 10-Year Treasury prior to the election.
- In 2016, this downtrend stopped and reversed about 10 days prior to the election and spiked on election night.
- Trading ranges of Gold are wider now compared to 2016.
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