#crudeoil

#crudeoil


How Important is Hedging for Farmers? + Levels for April 16th

April 15th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Grain Futures | Comment (0)

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This week we will see a number of fed speakers,

Tomorrow

Live @ 12:15CDT Link to Discussion With Jerome Powell we are providing this link for those that will watch the market and listen simultaneously

 

A bit of a departure from the usual Monday blog bites. The planting season in the northern hemisphere is under way so a quick review of the importance of Hedging follows:

How Important is Hedging for Farmers?

For farmers, especially those involved in producing commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, and livestock, the prices of these products can fluctuate significantly due to various factors such as weather conditions, global demand, geopolitical events, and market speculation. These fluctuations can directly impact a farmer’s profitability and financial stability. Here’s why hedging is so important:

  • Price Stability: Futures trading allows farmers to lock in prices for their produce or livestock at predetermined levels, providing them with a sense of stability and predictability in their revenue streams.
  • Risk Management: By hedging, farmers can protect themselves against adverse price movements. For example, if a farmer expects the price of corn to decrease before their harvest, they can take a short position in corn futures to offset potential losses.
  • Budgeting and Planning: Knowing the approximate revenue from their crops or livestock enables farmers to budget effectively, plan future investments, and manage expenses with more confidence.
  • Access to Capital: Having predictable revenue streams through hedging can make it easier for farmers to secure financing from lenders as they demonstrate a more stable financial outlook.
  • Competitive Advantage: Farmers who hedge can often compete more effectively in the market by offering consistent pricing to buyers, thereby securing long-term contracts and relationships.
  • Futures trading serves as a powerful tool for farmers to manage price risk and ensure a more stable financial outlook. By hedging their crops like wheat, corn, soybeans, and livestock, farmers can mitigate the impact of market volatility, plan their budgets effectively, and compete more confidently in the agricultural sector. Understanding and implementing various hedging strategies empower farmers to navigate unpredictable market conditions while safeguarding their profitability.

 

 

 

Daily Levels for April 16th, 2024

Economic Reports
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


Range Bar, Volume, Renko Charts + Levels for April 12th

April 11th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Trading Guide | Comment (0)

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Plenty of price action of the PPI report this morning!

If you are a day trader in days like today, waiting 15 minutes for the bar chart to complete may seem like an eternity…

This is when applying either RANGE bar charts or VOLUME bar charts can be handy!

When it comes to short term trading I am a fan of using volume charts, tick charts, range bar charts and Renko charts rather than the traditional time charts like the 1 minutes, 5 minutes etc.

My rule of thumb is that if you as a trader make decisions based on charts that are less than 15 minutes time frame, it may be worth your time to research, back test and do some homework as to potentially using other type of charts like volume charts , Range charts etc.

Volume charts will draw a new bar once a user defined number of contracts traded. Example mini SP 10,000 volume chart will draw a new bar once 10,000 contracts traded.

Range bar charts will draw new charts once price action has exceeded a user pre define price or ticks range. Example might be an 18 ticks range bar chart on crude oil.

While the volume charts rely ONLY on volume, the range bar charts rely ONLY on price action.

Their main advantage over traditional time charts is twofold in my opinion:

1. If the market is moving fast, reports came out or there is heavy volume in the market, the traditional 5 minute chart will need 5 minutes to complete the next bar before it provides you with a signal…if you day traded futures before you will know what 5 minutes can do….The volume charts or range bar charts in this case will complete the bars MUCH faster because there is strong price action and strong volume and will be able to provide a signal faster than the time charts.

2. On the flip side, there are times when the market is dead…low volume, sideways, choppy action. If you are using the 3 minute chart and a moving avg. cross over, you may get a signal simple because time has passed and the moving averages crossed even though the market is pretty dead….If you are using a volume chart and the market is slow…it will take a while for the bars to complete and hence it may filter out some “noise” in the market.

 

 

 

Daily Levels for April 12th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


CPI, FOMC Minutes + Futures Trading Levels for 04.10.2024

April 9th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Economic Trading, Financial Futures, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading | Comment (0)

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CPI and FOMC minutes Tomorrow

CPI Tomorrow! The CPI will be critical to the inflation outlook for Fed policymakers.

 

Previous CPI reports have created velocity logic events in the stock indices at the CME.

 

Please read more details about velocity logic and price banding HERE.

 

The above reports will Bookend the FOMC minutes release @1pm CT on tomorrow.

My previous notes suggest to do the following if you are an index day trader:

Get out before the 730 AM CPI.

Wait for the smoke to clear.

Resume trading.

Look at market volume and behavior after 9:30 AM Central time to decide if and how to resume trading.

I usually stop trading and resume after 1 PM once FOMC minutes are out.

AGAIN…This is just my PERSONAL preferences…

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Levels for April 10th, 2024

Economic Reports
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


Choppy Markets Today, (Tomorrow?) Ahead of CPI + Futures Trading Levels for 04.09.2024

April 8th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Metal Futures | Comment (0)

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Markets Heat up MidWeek

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

 

CPI Report Wednesday

The CPI report for March 2024 will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Monday at 7:30 a.m. CDT. As of February’s CPI report, annual inflation is 3.2%, or 3.8% excluding food and energy. That data compares with the FOMC’s annual inflation target of 2%.

What To Expect

These data set move the Equity, Bond, Metals and currency markets the most as the market drivers are directly related to what the FED will do next with Interest rates this summer. Provided inflation comes at a monthly rate close to 0.3% or lower for March, that should be sufficient for the FOMC to keep its plan to start cutting interest rates this summer. If the report shows a 0.4% monthly increase or greater, that would be a concern. It would suggest relatively high inflation readings seen in January, and to a lesser extent in February, are perhaps more of a trend. Here is your BLS CPI Data center https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

Monthly inflation at or below 0.2% would generally be considered positive news, perhaps giving more conviction to rate cutting plans. Still the CPI release is just one data point that the Fed will use to assess how inflation is trending. The FOMC will also keep a close eye on the jobs market, which so far has been strong enough to enable the Fed to be patient in considering interest rate cuts. A slowdown in job growth might matter for the Fed’s plans as much as upcoming inflation data releases.

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Levels for April 9th, 2024

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


Weekly Newsletter: Notional Value, May Copper Outlook & Trading Levels for April 8th

April 5th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Energy Futures, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Metal Futures, Weekly Newsletter | Comment (0)

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1188

In this issue:
  •  Important Notices – Earnings Season Starts April 12th
  • Trading Resource of the Week – About Contract Notional Value
  • Hot Market of the Week – May Copper
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – RBOB Swing System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

 

Important Notices –

  • Market Moving Data Wed. /Thur.  CPI and PPI respectively , w/Jobless Claims Thur. as well
  • 1 Fed discussion RE: new BASEL lll requirements Wed. AM (raises min. Cap Req from 2% to 4.5% for all banks)
  • AG WASDE Thur.
  • Q1 Earnings Season Begins Fri. the 12th Bank Earnings, JPM, C, WFC, BLK all report on this day.

 

 

 

 

Trading Resource of the Week : About Contract Notional Value by CMEgroup.com

Contract Unit
The contract unit is a standardized size unique to each futures contract and can be based on volume, weight, or a financial measurement, depending on the contract and the underlying product or market.
For example, a single COMEX Gold contract unit (GC) is 100 troy ounces, which is measured by weight.
A NYMEX WTI Crude Oil contract unit (CL) is 1,000 barrels of oil, measured by volume.
The E-mini S&P 500 contract unit (ES) is a financial calculation based on a fixed multiplier times the S&P 500 Index.
Contract Notional Value
Contract notional value, also known as contract value, is the financial expression of the contract unit and the current futures contract price.
Determining Notional Value
Assume a Gold futures contract is trading at price of $1,000. The notional value of the contract is calculated by multiplying the contract unit by the futures price.
Contract unit x contract price = notional value
100 (troy ounces) x $1,000 = $100,000
If WTI Crude Oil is trading at $50 dollars and the contract unit is 1000 barrels, the notional would be;
$50 x 1,000 = $50,000
Now assume E-mini S&P 500 futures are trading at 2120.00. The multiplier for this contract is $50.
$50 x 2120.00 = $106,000

 

 

  • Hot Market of the Week – May Copper
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
May Copper
May copper is completing its third upside PriceCount objective that is consistent with a challenge of the contract high. It would be normal to get a reaction in the form of a near term consolidation or corrective trade, at least, from this level. From here, IF the chart can sustain further gains, we are left with the low percentage fourth upside count to the 4.94 area to aim for (not shown here for presentation purposes).
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
SYSTEM TYPE
Swing
COST
USD 160 / monthly
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$25,000
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
Yes
No

 

Daily Levels for April 8th 2024

Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

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