Support & Resistance Levels

This Blog provides futures market outlook for different commodities and futures trading markets, mostly stock index futures, as well as support and resistance levels for Crude Oil futures, Gold futures, Euro currency and others. At times the daily trading blog will include educational information about different aspects of commodity and futures trading.

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Gold Daily Continuation Chart – Levels & Reports 8.14.2014

Posted on by Ilan

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

So I was doing some research and signal evaluator work on some candlesticks formation to go along with some of the conditions I like to use and figured might as well share some of the basic knowledge with my readers…

The following is taken from my CQG trading/chart terminal. If anyone is interested in a free trial, feel free to email me or visit our CQG section on our website.

So today, two formations I started exploring:

1. Engulfing Bearish

The Engulfing Bearish formation is, of course, a bearish formation and therefore its symbol (EG) will always appear at the top of the formation. It represents the opposite of the Engulfing Bullish formation. Three criteria establish an Engulfing Bearish formation:

*The market has to be in a clearly definable up-trend, even if the trend is short term.

*Of the 2 candlesticks in the formation, the second candle’s real body must engulf the first candle’s real body.

*The second real body of the formation should be “down” while the first real body should be “up.”

 

2. Engulfing Bullish

The Engulfing Bullish formation is, of course, a bullish formation and therefore its symbol (EG) will always appear at the bottom of the formation. It represents the opposite of the Engulfing Bearish formation. Three criteria establish an Engulfing Bullish formation:

*The market has to be in a clearly definable downtrend, even if the trend is short term.

*Of the 2 candlesticks in the formation, the second candle’s real body must engulf the first candle’s real body.

*The second real body of the formation should be “up” while the first real body should be “down.”

 

824

 

Above is a daily chart of Gold futures, going back to March 17th 2014 where one can see a good example of the ” Bearish EG”  formation and yet in the same exact chart you can see a failed “Bullish EG” formation on May 2nd 2014.

 

Will continue and explore a few other candlesticks formations over the next couple of weeks.

Continue reading “Gold Daily Continuation Chart – Levels & Reports 8.14.2014”

Mindful of Trading Size – Futures Reports & Levels 8.13.2014

Posted on by Ilan

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

Today I want to touch briefly on a very important subject of “position size”.

Many traders spend hours and hours on trading signals, studies, reviewing the charts and patterns yet dedicate very little time to the subject of money management and one of it’s important aspects – position size.

If you have the ability, risk capital and desire to trade more than one contract, then position size is an important aspect.

How do you decide if you going to enter a trade with 2 or 10 contracts?
Are you the type of trader that gets in and out with ALL contracts or perhaps you enter and exit in layers?
Do you have certain set ups/ signals you feel stronger about and you enter with larger trade quantity? or do you enter all trades with a predefined number of contracts?
How do you calculate the number of contracts you will enter per trade? is it based on your account value? the market you trade?
does it changes with out regards to the account size?

As I mentioned in the beginning of this very short blog which meant to wake up that part in you as a trader, this subject is much deeper than a quick blog post but the questions/ thoughts above should encourage you to put more time and research into this matter.

To finish I will share just a few tips that I found useful and like to use:

1. Lower trade size when volatility increases as normally you will need to give your trade more room.
2. If you feel  uneasy when in a trade, more than normal, that means you are probably trading larger quantity than you should be.
3. Try to do some math based on your trading performance, worst draw-down, amount of maximum losing trades etc. to determine the amount of contracts per $ equity in the account. Example, “I will trade 1 contract of mini SP 500 per trade signal per $5,000 of equity in the account.”
4. Evaluate periodically as your account value fluctuates and as the market fluctuates.

 

Continue reading “Mindful of Trading Size – Futures Reports & Levels 8.13.2014”

Mini S&P Daily Continuation Chart – Levels & Reports 8.12.2014

Posted on by Ilan

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Nice bounce on stock index futures after the lows we made Thursday night.

So far the market has respect to the symmetry I am sharing below and the current bounce should test 1951 if continues OR test 1913 if selling pressure resumes. These are the levels I will be watching as in between we have enough room for intraday fluctuations. Volume today was light and action took place mostly in the first few hours. August is know to be the “month of vacations” over at Europe.
Mini SP 500 daily chart for your review below:

 

823

 

In between the Geo political focus will be on the situation in Iraq and the concerning issue of the Islamic group known as ISIS.

Continue reading “Mini S&P Daily Continuation Chart – Levels & Reports 8.12.2014”

SP 500 Futures Testing Major Support Zone – Levels & Reports for 8.8.2014

Posted on by Ilan

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

SP 500 made new lows and about to test a series of support levels as one can see in the daily chart below:

We have few levels of support between 1885 and 1896.50 in case we break again below the psychological 1900 mark.

I mentioned a couple of days ago support of 1795 by mistake and was asked by few of the readers. That was a typo the support I meant to write is 1895.

Looks like we will visit that level and zone very soon, maybe as early as night session. My best guess is for an initial bounce of that level. Just a guess. Either way I will look to see what kind of reaction we get if and when we get down there.

A strong bounce may signal some more upside, however a break below 1895-1885 level may actually make my 1795 typo into a reality… 822

Continue reading “SP 500 Futures Testing Major Support Zone – Levels & Reports for 8.8.2014”

Day Trading Money Management + Levels & Reports for 8.7.2014

Posted on by Ilan

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

A word or two about day-trading and money management…..

 

 

 

Trading futures and even more so, day-trading futures has grown significantly over the last few years, as seen by the increase in daily volume on some of the more popular electronic markets. (The Mini SP had 3,575,702 contracts traded on February 27th! Yes, that is 3.575 MILLION contracts….)

New traders as well as more experienced traders often wonder and search for the “holy grail” and the answer is different for each trader. Many factors influence what may be a good route for one trader versus a better alternative for another. Experience, risk tolerance, the person’s schedule, financial situation along with other factors will greatly influence what is a suitable trading method for one trader or another.

One COMMON solution different traders can implement when it comes to day-trading is what I call: “Treat your daily Profit/Loss as you would treat an open trade” and allow me to expand:

As brokers we have seen different traders survive in this business, making progress and even getting to the point of consistently finding their set ups, however their main downfall is that “one bad day” where they may give up recent gains, lose a large percentage of their account or even lose their whole account.

A practical solution for eliminating those disastrous days and giving you a better chance for survival is using “stop losses, trailing stop losses and daily stop limits” for every given trading day.

Let’s assume for hypothetical purposes that trader A is day-trading with $10,000 of risk capital. Part of her preparation for trading should be an understanding of her trading style, how active she is, how much on average does she risk per trade and other factors to help her calculate what her DAILY LOSS LIMIT should be. If you as a trader can be discipline enough to set your own daily loss limit and on days when you have reached your daily loss limit, simply stop trading for that day, you will give yourself better odds in surviving the day-trading arena and preventing days where you may loss a big portion of your account. Surviving to trade another day is a crucial element when it comes to day-trading.

Continue reading “Day Trading Money Management + Levels & Reports for 8.7.2014”

Crude Oil Futures Testing Major Weekly Support Level, SP500 Volatility Higher + Levels for 8.6.2014

Posted on by Ilan

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Volatility has picked up again! Make sure you adapt as markets are always changing and what may work for range bound/ low volatility days will not work for wide range/ higher volatility days.

I see major support for SP500 at 1795 and it will be interesting to see price reaction if we test this level in the next few days.

On a different note, I wrote a quick analysis along with chart for Crude Oil futures at:

http://experts.forexmagnates.com/crude-oil-attempting-break-lower/

Continue reading “Crude Oil Futures Testing Major Weekly Support Level, SP500 Volatility Higher + Levels for 8.6.2014”

Volatility Returns to Stock Index Futures – Levels & reports for August 5th

Posted on by Ilan

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

As I do from time to time, I like to share resources I feel are worthy of exploring, such is the one below by www.factset.com :

Overview:

  • US equities came under pressure this week as the S&P 500 suffered its biggest weekly pullback in over two years. Despite the magnitude of the move, there was not an overriding theme that captured the price action.
  • Widely cited headwinds included Fed angst, geopolitical tensions, disappointing earnings, the latest flare-up on the Eurozone periphery, the slowdown in the housing recovery, Argentina’s default, fatigue, technical and continued worries about stretched valuations and crowded trades.
  • However, there were notable pockets of reprieve surrounding some of these concerns, particularly when it came to monetary policy and earnings. In addition, geopolitics has not proved to be a sustainable directional driver, while the tipping point search has been in play for a while.
  • While largely on the backburner, there were some positive dynamics at work this week. The pickup in strategic M&A activity continued, while there more signs of stabilization in China, where the Shanghai Composite bucked the sell off in global equities with a nearly 3% rally.
  • There did not seem to be any great signals from the sector performance this week with the broad-based nature of the risk-off trade and company-specific takeaways from a very busy week of earnings. Energy and industrials put in the worst performance, while telecom held up the best.

Fed angst finds some reprieve:

  • Worries about the Fed being behind the curve and the potential for an earlier and more aggressive start to the policy normalization process continued to get a lot of attention as a source of market angst this week. There were two particular areas of focus. One was the 4% growth in Q2 GDP, which was a full point ahead of the consensus. The other was the 0.7% increase in the Q2 employment cost index (ECI), which was ahead of the 0.5% consensus and marked the fast growth in six years. The hotter ECI print was of particular interest because it followed on the heels of an FOMC statement that hedged an upgrade of the assessment of the labor market by noting that a range of indicators suggest a significant underutilization of labor resources. However, there was some reprieve late in the week as average hourly earnings were flat in July, leaving them up just 2.0% y/y. This compared to expectations for a 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y increase. In addition, while a sixth straight month of nonfarm payrolls growth above 200K kept the recovery traction theme in focus, the 209K was slightly below expectations and not robust enough to impact liftoff expectations. Finally, despite the hype surrounding Fed fears, yields in the front and belly of the curve were actually lower on the week.

Continue reading “Volatility Returns to Stock Index Futures – Levels & reports for August 5th”

What Exactly Are Futures Spreads

Posted on by Ilan

Corn is one of nature’s greatest creations. You can make all sorts of delicious foods from the vegetable. It feeds many different types of animals. It is the base to many different popular types of liquor. Corn also can be an alternative fuel source. Not only are the corn’s uses wondrous it is also a very durable plant. It can take almost any type of weather patterns and still grow. Corn is also popular amongst investors, most notably commodity traders. Although a very good sturdy plant, investing in corn is a risky investment. Actually commodity investing is a risky strategy, but rewarding if you can invest the right way.

To invest in a commodity you have to minimize your risk. Commodities traders will use a strategy known as a futures spread. Future spreads lower the amount of risk because the trader is hedging two commodities contracts, the result is the spread between the prices of the two contracts.

The several types of futures spreads traders can take advantage of.

Calendar Spreads

Calendar spreads are also known as Intramarket spreads. The practice lets the trader take on a short contract and a long contract, both based on specific months of the year. An example would be that the trader buys a contract for soybeans in May, and sells another contract for soybeans in November. To get your results you would simply subtract the November price of soybeans from the May price, and then you get your spread.

Intermarket Spreads

Intermarket spreading is the practice of buying a short contract of one commodity and buying the long contract of a different commodity. An example of an intermarket spread; you purchase a short contract of corn and at the same time purchase a long contract of wheat. The difference in the prices of the two will give you the spread.

Continue reading “What Exactly Are Futures Spreads”

Stock Indices React to FOMC with Largest One Day Drop in 4 Months – Aug 1st Levels

Posted on by Ilan

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

I have noticed many times in the past that the “real direction to FOMC announcements, will usually come the following day”. Today was a perfect example of it…..

Last time we had a meaningful correction in the SP500 was April 4th. The correction lasted 10 days and measured 90 SP points from peak to valley 1885 to 1795 as you can see in the chart below ( sounds like I am talking about earthquakes….).If symmetry decides to give us a similar reaction we can see 1896 as the next target. In between we have a support zone at 1913 – 1918 first.

 

Daily chart of the Sept. mini SP 500 with the different levels for your review below:

 

EP - E-Mini S&P 500 Equalized Active Daily Continuation
EP – E-Mini S&P 500 Equalized Active Daily Continuation

Continue reading “Stock Indices React to FOMC with Largest One Day Drop in 4 Months – Aug 1st Levels”

FOMC Notes & Economic Reports 7.31.2014

Posted on by Ilan

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

FOMC notes from Econoday.com:

Policy rates are unchanged. Taper remains on schedule to end with the October FOMC meeting. Policy rates are to remain low for a “considerable time” after the end of taper. Plosser dissented, objecting to “considerable time” phrase.

Emphasis was on the labor market which was upgraded with the comment, “Labor market conditions have improved , with the unemployment rate declining further.” But it was also noted, “a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources.”

The economy is seen as having rebounded from the anemic first quarter with household spending rising moderately and business fixed investment advancing. Housing is seen as remaining slow.

Inflation is closer to the Fed’s long-term goal and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Due to continued progress in the labor market, the FOMC decided to take a further measured reduction in asset purchases.

“Beginning in August, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.”

Continue reading “FOMC Notes & Economic Reports 7.31.2014”

RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.