FOMC Notes & Economic Reports 7.31.2014

Support & Resistance Levels

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FOMC Notes & Economic Reports 7.31.2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

FOMC notes from

Policy rates are unchanged. Taper remains on schedule to end with the October FOMC meeting. Policy rates are to remain low for a “considerable time” after the end of taper. Plosser dissented, objecting to “considerable time” phrase.

Emphasis was on the labor market which was upgraded with the comment, “Labor market conditions have improved , with the unemployment rate declining further.” But it was also noted, “a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources.”

The economy is seen as having rebounded from the anemic first quarter with household spending rising moderately and business fixed investment advancing. Housing is seen as remaining slow.

Inflation is closer to the Fed’s long-term goal and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Due to continued progress in the labor market, the FOMC decided to take a further measured reduction in asset purchases.

“Beginning in August, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.”

The Fed noted that further asset purchases are likely to be cut back at a measured pace even though the reductions are not on a preset course.

The FOMC statement noted “that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.”

The Fed also indicated that the rise in policy rates is likely to be slow with the comment that even after the Fed achieves policy mandates (unemployment and inflation), that the fed funds rate may be below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting against was Charles I. Plosser who objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for “a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends,” because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee’s goals.


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Futures Trading Levels

Contract Sept. 2014 SP500 Nasdaq100 Dow Jones Mini Russell Dollar Index
Resistance 3 1991.75 4014.00 17087 1160.20 82.04
Resistance 2 1983.00 3998.50 17006 1154.70 81.84
Resistance 1 1974.00 3984.25 16912 1149.00 81.68
Pivot 1965.25 3968.75 16831 1143.50 81.48
Support 1 1956.25 3954.50 16737 1137.80 81.31
Support 2 1947.50 3939.00 16656 1132.30 81.11
Support 3 1938.50 3924.75 16562 1126.60 80.95
Contract December Gold Sept.Silver Sept. Crude Oil September Bonds Sept. Euro
Resistance 3 1316.5 2106.7 103.26 140 8/32 1.3466
Resistance 2 1310.9 2091.3 102.47 139 21/32 1.3442
Resistance 1 1304.5 2078.7 101.02 138 18/32 1.3418
Pivot 1298.9 2063.3 100.23 137 31/32 1.3394
Support 1 1292.5 2050.7 98.78 136 28/32 1.3370
Support 2 1286.9 2035.3 97.99 136 9/32 1.3346
Support 3 1280.5 2022.7 96.54 135 6/32 1.3322
Contract Dec Corn Sept. Wheat Nov. Beans Dec. SoyMeal Dec. bean Oil
Resistance 3 378.8 532.3 1104.33 360.87 36.79
Resistance 2 375.7 529.9 1097.92 357.93 36.64
Resistance 1 373.6 528.6 1089.58 353.27 36.51
Pivot 370.4 526.2 1083.17 350.33 36.36
Support 1 368.3 524.8 1074.8 345.7 36.2
Support 2 365.2 522.4 1068.42 342.73 36.08
Support 3 363.1 521.1 1060.08 338.07 35.95
Economic Reports


All times are Eastern time Zone (EST)

Date 3:47pm Currency Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Graph
ThuJul 31 1:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y -11.2% -15.0%
2:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 1.1% -0.6%
GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.6% 1.0%
2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.3% 1.0%
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -5K 9K
4:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 12.6% 12.6%
5:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.5% 0.5%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.8% 0.8%
EUR Unemployment Rate 11.6% 11.6%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -20.2%
8:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.3% 0.1%
USD Unemployment Claims 303K 284K
USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.5% 0.3%
9:45am USD Chicago PMI 63.2 62.6
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 92B 90B
7:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 48.9
9:00pm CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.0
9:30pm AUD PPI q/q 0.7% 0.9%
9:35pm JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8
9:45pm CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 52.0 52.0
11:30pm JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.



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