Support & Resistance Levels

This Blog provides futures market outlook for different commodities and futures trading markets, mostly stock index futures, as well as support and resistance levels for Crude Oil futures, Gold futures, Euro currency and others. At times the daily trading blog will include educational information about different aspects of commodity and futures trading.

Futures SP and its Smaller Contracts

S&P 500 Futures – A Futures Trading Guide

Futures contracts have become a fundamental tool for market participants looking to hedge risk or speculate on price movements. Among the many futures contracts available, the S&P 500 Futures (commonly referred to as futures SP, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Futures, or SP500 Index Futures) are some of the most widely traded. The S&P 500 Futures contracts, along with their smaller counterparts like the E-Mini S&P 500 and the Micro S&P 500, offer a unique and efficient way to trade the broader U.S. stock market. They serve as key financial instruments for both institutional and retail traders, providing liquidity and exposure to the U.S. equity markets.

This article will explore the various aspects of futures SP, delve into the intricacies of the smaller-sized contracts like the E-Mini S&P 500 and Micro S&P 500, discuss where these contracts are traded, explain why institutional investors and hedgers use them, and highlight the motivations of retail traders who speculate on these futures.

  1. What are Futures SP?

The term futures SP refers to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Futures, which are derivatives contracts that track the performance of the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index is one of the most widely followed benchmarks of U.S. equities, representing the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is often seen as a barometer for the overall health of the U.S. economy and stock market.

S&P 500 futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell the S&P 500 Index at a predetermined future date and price. The contracts are standardized, meaning that the terms are set by the exchange on which they are traded. Traders can use these contracts to gain exposure to the broader stock market without owning the individual stocks that comprise the S&P 500.

  1. Where are S&P 500 Futures Traded?

S&P 500 futures are traded primarily on the CME Group’s Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The CME is one of the largest and most prominent derivatives exchanges in the world, offering a wide range of futures and options contracts across various asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. The S&P 500 futures contracts can be traded electronically via CME’s Globex platform, making them accessible to traders around the globe, 23 hours a day, five days a week.

  1. Understanding the Smaller Contracts: E-Mini S&P 500 and Micro S&P 500

In addition to the standard S&P 500 Futures contract, there are smaller versions that have been introduced to accommodate different types of traders:

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

The E-Mini S&P 500 Futures contract (ticker symbol: ES) was introduced in 1997 by the CME Group to make futures trading more accessible to a broader audience. The E-Mini contract represents 1/5th the size of the standard S&P 500 Futures contract, making it more affordable for individual traders and smaller institutions.

Key features of the E-Mini S&P 500 include:

  • Each contract represents a notional value of $50 times the S&P 500 Index.
  • The contract trades electronically on the CME’s Globex platform, providing liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads.
  • The smaller contract size allows traders to participate in the S&P 500 market with less capital than is required for the standard contract.

Micro S&P 500 Futures

In 2019, the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures contract (ticker symbol: MES) was launched as a further reduction in contract size. The Micro S&P 500 Futures contract is just 1/10th the size of the E-Mini S&P 500 contract, making it an even more accessible product for retail traders.

Key features of the Micro S&P 500 Futures include:

  • Each contract represents a notional value of $5 times the S&P 500 Index.
  • Like the E-Mini, the Micro S&P 500 Futures trades electronically on the CME Globex platform.
  • This contract enables traders with smaller accounts to participate in the movements of the S&P 500 with a lower level of financial commitment and risk.

The introduction of the E-Mini and Micro S&P 500 Futures has dramatically increased participation in the S&P 500 Index Futures market, allowing retail traders and smaller institutions to engage in the futures market without the large capital outlay required for the full-sized contract.

  1. Why Do Hedgers and Institutions Use S&P 500 Futures?

Institutional investors, fund managers, and large corporations often use S&P 500 futures to hedge their positions and manage risk. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Futures provide a cost-effective way to gain or reduce exposure to the U.S. equity market. Below are the primary reasons why hedgers and institutions use S&P 500 futures:

Portfolio Hedging

Many institutional investors hold large portfolios of U.S. equities. By using S&P 500 futures, these investors can hedge against market downturns without having to sell their individual stock holdings. For example, if an investor believes that the market may decline in the short term, they can short SP500 Index Futures to offset potential losses in their portfolio. This is an effective way to protect against downside risk without liquidating core stock positions.

Efficient Market Exposure

For institutions looking to gain quick and efficient exposure to the U.S. stock market, S&P 500 futures offer a highly liquid and cost-effective solution. Instead of buying hundreds of individual stocks, institutions can simply buy S&P 500 futures contracts to achieve the same exposure. This can be particularly useful for pension funds, hedge funds, and mutual funds that need to adjust their market exposure rapidly.

Leverage

One of the key advantages of trading Standard and Poor’s 500 futures is leverage. Futures contracts allow traders to control a large notional value of the underlying asset (the S&P 500 Index) with a relatively small amount of capital. This leverage can enhance returns for institutions but also increases risk, which is why it must be used with caution.

  1. Why Retail Clients Speculate on Futures SP?

Retail traders are increasingly drawn to S&P 500 futures, especially the smaller E-Mini S&P 500 and Micro S&P 500 contracts, as they offer several advantages for speculating on the direction of the stock market. The following are some of the reasons why retail clients speculate on futures SP:

Liquidity

The SPX Index Futures market is one of the most liquid futures markets in the world. High liquidity means that traders can enter and exit positions with ease, even during volatile market conditions. For retail traders, liquidity is crucial because it ensures that they can execute trades quickly and at favorable prices.

Low Capital Requirements

The smaller-sized contracts like the E-Mini S&P 500 and Micro S&P 500 have lower capital requirements, making them ideal for retail traders who want to speculate on the direction of the broader stock market. The lower margin requirements mean that traders can open positions with a fraction of the capital required for traditional stock trading.

Leverage and Margin

Retail traders are often attracted to the leverage offered by S&P 500 futures. Futures contracts allow traders to control a significant amount of the underlying index with a small amount of margin. For example, a retail trader can use leverage to potentially amplify returns, though it is important to note that this also increases the risk of losses.

24/5 Trading

SP500 Index Futures trade almost around the clock, giving retail traders the ability to react to news and events as they happen, even outside of regular stock market hours. This extended trading window is particularly appealing to those who want to trade during off-hours or in response to global market movements.

Short-Selling Opportunities

Unlike traditional stock trading, where short-selling can involve additional complexity, futures contracts are inherently designed for both long and short positions. This allows retail traders to speculate on both rising and falling markets without the need for additional borrowing or fees, making S&P 500 futures an attractive choice for those looking to take advantage of bearish market conditions.

Diversification

S&P 500 futures provide retail traders with exposure to a diversified portfolio of 500 of the largest companies in the United States. This diversification reduces the risk associated with trading individual stocks, as the performance of the index reflects a broad cross-section of the economy.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Futures are some of the most important and widely traded financial instruments in the world. They offer institutional and retail traders alike an efficient way to gain exposure to the U.S. equity markets, hedge portfolios, and speculate on market movements. With the introduction of smaller contracts like the E-Mini S&P 500 and Micro S&P 500, these futures have become even more accessible, enabling a wide range of market participants to engage in futures trading.

For institutional investors, S&P 500 futures provide an efficient and cost-effective means of managing risk and adjusting market exposure. For retail traders, the liquidity, leverage, and low capital requirements of SP500 Index Futures and their smaller counterparts make them ideal for speculative trading.

Whether you’re a hedger looking to protect a portfolio or a speculator aiming to profit from market movements, S&P 500 futures offer a versatile and powerful tool for navigating the complexities of the financial markets. The combination of liquidity, leverage, and broad market exposure makes them a cornerstone of modern trading strategies.

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Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

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Oil Slumps on OPEC Demand Downgrade, Metals Rally as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Grow

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Movers and Shakers

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Oil took another $3 .40 nosedive when OPEC announced a smaller than expected demand growth forecast for 2025 for the Third time!

Updated: October 14, 2024 8:43 am

For the third time OPEC slashed its 2024 and 2025 worldwide crude oil demand growth rate. This year’s demand was lowered to 1.93 mln bpd, down from last month’s projection at 2.03 mln mt. Analysts noted much the downgrade came from lower expected Chinese demand. Next year’s demand growth is seen at 1.64 mln bpd down from 1.74 mln bpd previously forecast.

 

Flirting with the low end of the 25 month old range, November crude held it’s ground around $69.75/bbl level , a mere 3 dollars from the springtime 2023 lows.

Equity markets were upset by poor United healthcare Group end of year Guidance although they beat EPS estimates, Buy the rumor sell the fact? UNH shares down 48.25 per share or nearly 8%.

Metals cruised higher today with the CME FedWatch tool reflecting a solid 90% chance the FED will lower rates .25-50 in its November meeting is again fueling speculative buying in the Yellow Metal.

The All time high in the December contract is 2708.70 , are we flirting with that number?, yes, as of this writing GCZ24 is @ 2678.00 can we take that out? Stay tuned…

Sympathetic Silver is recouping it’s bullish stance, 1.80 away from it’s contract high @ 31.70 /oz +.37 for the day

 

Watch Tomorrow’s Movers and Shakers:

No Fed Speakers, No Economic Data, very few ,if any earnings that would make headlines.

Ask a Broker: What is Futures Margin?

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Daily Levels for Oct. 16th 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by:ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
43ff99a5 90d3 4f0f a09a 9563cfd37ec9
Good Trading!
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Contact
S
Cannon Trading Company
12100 Wilshire Boulevard
Suite 1640
Los Angeles, CA 90025
(800) 454-9572
Follow Us
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Visit Our Website

 

Guide to Commodity Futures Trading from a Stock Market Broker

One of the most profitable areas a stock market broker can get into is commodities futures and you can start trading them right now with the right research tools and trading strategy to bet on the future of the market while you’re trading stocks and growing your bank account. Any online brokerage account should have a diversified portfolio with plenty of commodity futures and options trades to go around and pad the investment accounts, whether you’re self-directed or use online brokers. Most online brokers know the importance of investment objectives and can almost always be met with the help of futures and financial advisors are always there to give you an idea of where they’ll be the time your trade goes through.

Active traders have plenty of options when it comes to stock and ETF trades and a stock market broker is going to suggest that every investment portfolio has a few things to hedge your bets and ensure you’re growing your bank account and never losing money with your stock trading. Investment holdings should always include mutual fund trades, stock ETF trades, and commodity futures and every good stock trading platform will have a mobile app that lets you make the most of them. Here’s all the information that active stock traders need to get into commodities and buy stocks that not only cover their account fees but make them money.

Choosing the Right Online Broker

There are interactive brokers and online brokers that will sell stocks and mutual funds for you and take all the work of e-trade away from you so you can sit back and watch your account grow and mature over time and that might be the best option for beginner investors before they start trading. They’ll make all the investment decisions for you and they’ll make a cash bonus when exchange-traded funds get a boost, but you can choose commission-free trades by using a mobile app to do it all by yourself. Active investing takes many research tools and the best online stock brokers will have the educational resources you need to get the most out of trading platforms without using full-service brokers.

Your online brokerage account should come with investment advice and access to mutual funds trading forex trading, and alternative investments that you can look at and decide if you want to get into the same areas that advanced traders are using in their online brokerages. You can start trading right now by setting margin accounts on your online brokerage account and full-service brokers will take over from there, or you can act as your online broker and use trading platforms and brokerage firms for research. There are many financial products to choose from and the decision is yours, but you should ensure you have all the information you need to make the correct one.

What to Consider When Selecting an Online Broker

There are a few things to consider when you want to find the best brokerage accounts to help with your active investing and there are financial products, such as discount brokers, to help you buy stocks with a brokerage account that makes you money and grows your bank account. The best online brokers will have options for active traders as well as access to a full-service broker to take your taxable brokerage account and do all the trading work for you. These online brokers know the stock market and are monitored by the financial industry regulatory authority to keep you and your money safe.

It’s important to consider account minimums on any mobile app you choose to use so you can be sure that your online brokerage platform is something you can comfortably afford until you start to sell stocks and make money through mutual funds and stock and ETF trades. Stock trading platforms are monitored by the Securities and Exchange Commission so your taxable brokerage account is secure and your account minimum is safe. The best online brokerage accounts keep their account fees low so you can buy stocks and make money simply by using a mobile app that supports your active investing decisions.

Types of Online Brokerage Accounts

Stock Market Traders

The best online brokerage platform will have every option available to you, from Morgan self-directed investing to online brokers who trade mutual funds, futures, and commodities for you, based on your long-term goals and the amount of money you’ve given the trading platform to use on your behalf. If you want fully commission-free trading, it’s best to act as your online broker and use the trading platform for information and educational resources that let you make the best decisions for your trades. This is great for advanced traders who know how the market works and want to use the broker’s online trading platform for support rather than a full-service broker.

No matter which type of brokerage account you get, your money will be protected by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation if the firm goes bankrupt for any reason or the stock trading platform gets shut down. The best online broker will have educational resources on a mobile app that you can access to carry out the investment decisions you’ve made. You’ll also have access to interactive brokers and online brokers to do the e-trade work for you so you don’t have to do it all on your own.

Getting Started with Online Brokers

Interactive brokers are easy to find on the right trading platforms and active traders will take your goals and make e-trade decisions based on what you want from brokerage firms and all you have to do is set up an account on a mobile app. Everything from alternative investments to stock ETF trades and options trades will be available to you as soon as you get set up and you’ll have the best online brokers and interactive brokers working for you on your trading platform. Active traders and discount brokers will have your account minimum to work with and you get to watch your investment accounts grow.

Of course, you don’t have to use interactive brokers on any trading platforms if you want to act as your full-service broker and do the e-trade work on your own. Some of the best online brokers are people who do it on their own with self-directed trading platforms and it can be the best commission-free trading that you can get into. Trading stocks in commodities futures can be very lucrative, as long as you have the educational resources it takes to know what’s happening and which moves you should make.

Online Brokerage Account Features

Stock trading platforms are great for active traders because brokerage firms have done the leg work of gathering information on stock trading so you can make self-directed trades without paying online brokers to do it for you. The best online broker platform will have real-time information you can access whenever you need it before you make an e-trade and bet on the future of the commodities of your choosing. Stock and ETF trades should be easy to access and they’ll have charts that show you where a stock has been so you can make an informed decision on where it will be in the future.

Stock trading platforms will have full-service brokers to utilize, as well as self-directed e-trade options that you can choose based on your needs and how you want to go about your options trades. The right stock trading platforms will allow you to add and draw from your account for your money is never locked away from you and you’ll get the same information that brokerage firms and the best online brokers get to use. Interactive brokers will also be available to help you make e-trade decisions so your stock trading and mutual funds always turn profits, just like full-service brokers would be making for you.

Online Brokerage Account Safety and Security

Whether you go with self-directed investing or interactive brokers on a better stock trading platform, your account minimum will always be safe and your information will always be kept as secure as possible, so you can act as your online broker without worrying about it being stolen. Most online brokers and interactive brokers utilize security features on their trading platforms that encrypt your data from end to end so your stock and ETF trades stay safe from outside interference. Your banking and personal information will be secure, and your account minimum will always be there for you.

The Securities Investor Protection Corporation will also insure your money in the event your stock trading platform goes bankrupt or shuts down, just like the money in your bank is protected. It’s also overseen by the financial industry regulatory authority so everything is safe, from mutual funds trades to ETF trades and options trades. No matter what you trade, you’ll always be safe and secure when you use the best brokerage accounts you can find.

Is My Money Insured at a Brokerage Firm?

No matter what kind of brokerage account you have at your brokerage firm, your money is always insured and protected, so you don’t have to worry about it disappearing from the trading platform or your account minimum being taken. The trading platform and online broker will use high security features and everything will be overseen so you can sell stocks and deal in commodities futures with full peace of mind. Every brokerage account gets the same level of security, whether you’re using interactive brokers or simply trading with the account minimum they require you to have.

It makes it easy to choose a brokerage firm that gives you access to commodities futures trading, mutual funds, options trades, and stock ETF trading when you know your money is insured and your information is always kept secure. You can make any investment decisions you want and the best online broker you can get will have your back, no matter what happens. Keep in mind that online brokers are overseen, just like all other brokerage accounts that you can open and manage.

Start Trading Futures Commodities with Online Brokers

CTC Traders

The best online brokers and brokerage accounts are waiting to make futures commodities trading possible right now and you can choose to go with interactive brokers or use the information they’ve collected to be your best online broker on your own, it’s completely up to you and how you want to trade. Commodities futures. stock ETF trades and options trades can be some of the most lucrative moves you can make and there’s an online broker ready to give you the chance to make lots of money off the market. You’ll get information on trends, past activity, and everything else you need to be the best online broker that you can be while you trade on your own behalf and make moves by trading stocks.

There are also active traders who can do the work for you if you don’t have the time it takes to become an expert on commodities futures and financial advisors who know the market and how to carry out the best trading strategy for you and your money. You don’t have to know everything about the stock market to start trading and making money off your investments right now. Just choose the best online broker and you’ll have all the resources you need to turn a profit and benefit from commodities futures.

Fed Easing Cycle Fuels Market Rally Amid Earnings Season and Economic Uncertainty

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The FED is your friend…..

14 October 2024

By GalTrades.com

The FED is your friend plus the trend is your friend. The Federal Reserve is in an easing cycle which is a positive for the markets. I would like to see that trend continue and there be no change in the Fed’s stance, we don’t want to see economic reports which would hint at inflation creeping back up. Federal Reserve officials debated whether to lower interest rates by a quarter or half of a percentage point last month. Almost all participants agreed that the upside risks to inflation had diminished, and most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased. Inflation is broadly trending down. Markets had to digest a warmer-than-expected CPI report and a one-year high print in initial claims, rising geopolitical risks, along with higher oil prices and yields, yet stocks have been able to make new highs.

With markets at all-time highs, earnings season can be a boost or a test of lower support zones. All eyes will be on the earnings numbers and what executives have to say about their outlooks. In the week ahead, a number of influential companies are set to report. While the trend in stocks remains bullish, the environment is not without its risks and valuation is full. The forward P/E on the S&P 500 currently stands at roughly 22 versus the 10-year average of 17.7, per FactSet. Elevated valuation is largely driven by expectations for strong earnings growth and easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Therefore, Q3 earnings season, which unofficially kicked off, will likely need to deliver strong results to keep this bull market going. High earnings valuations are fully priced in this growth story, any miss on overall earnings can generate a valuation re-set and a pullback. I would also like to look at Thursday’s Retail Sales report. The last couple of Retail Sales reports have been stronger than expected, so this data point will provide a good read on the state of the U.S. consumer. Friday CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed a 0.3% month/month drop in consumer spending, which could suggest a soft Retail Sales report. If so, this could be enough to trigger a profit-taking pullback in stocks.

If NVDA can obtain a new all-time high, or the small cap’s Russell can break out to fresh two-year highs next week, these would likely be near-term bullish catalysts. I would like to see a continuation of the uptrend; However, I am very cautious as any negative news from earnings or the retail’s report can change the momentum until the next catalyst.

S&P fifth straight weekly gain. The market is hitting this level without much help from tech stocks and the Magnificent 7 as the rally broadens out to the financials in response to positive third-quarter numbers from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and BlackRock.

Multiples are high and portfolio managers are saying they’re uncomfortable buying at these levels, but there is a lot of money coming in from the sidelines therefore they feel that they have to participate. The index level feels expensive as well, I hear analysts are looking for mid cap size companies.

Banks delivered earnings on Friday and their prices went up, which is a good start for earnings season. Year to date; JPM is up 31%, C 28%, GS 33%, BAC 25%, WFC 24%. That’s higher than the S&P YTD.

Cybersecurity: is making new highs, see ETF – BUG.

Money is coming out of China-related stocks on some disappointment around stimulus. Those dollars are rotating out of China tech names such as Alibaba and moving into the U.S. tech giants.

Bond yields rose this week, primarily driven by the warmer-than-expected inflation data. Two-year Treasury yields increased to 3.955% from 3.923% while 10-year yields tacked on roughly 10 basis points to 4.085% from 3.981%

Earnings & Economic reports this week: Monday, Oct.14: Charles Schwab (SCHW)

Tuesday, Oct. 15: Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), UnitedHealth (UNH), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Goldman Sachs (GS) United Airlines (UAL), Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and JB Hunt(JBHT) Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR), Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)

Wednesday, Oct.16: Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Labs (ABT), ASML (ASML), US Bancorp (USB), Citizens (CFG) and Prologis (PLD) Alcoa (AA), PPG Industries(PPG), CSX (CSX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Discover (DFS) and Crown Castle (CCI) Discover Financial Services (DFS), Equifax Inc. (EFX)

Thursday, Oct. 17: Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

Taiwan Semi (TSM), Travelers (TRV), Elevance (ELV), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Blackstone (BX), Truist (TFC) and KeyCorp(KEY) Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Crown Holdings (CCK) Elevance Health Inc. (ELV), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV),

Friday, Oct. 18: Housing Starts & Building Permits. American Express (AXP), SLB (SLB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial Corp. (RF), Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY), Comerica Inc. (CMA),

Technical Analysis:

While the SPX and DOW made new all-time highs, the Nasdaq 100 did not. But it continued to trend higher this week and is on pace to close less than 2% below the all-time closing high of 20,675, hit back on July 10th. If Nvidia sets fresh all-time highs this could signal to markets that the AI trade is alive and well and should help the NASDAQ, but other AI plays are trading well as well, such as ORCL, AVGO, PLTR.

Small caps: the Russell is heavily weighted on regional banks and health care. The Russell 2000 was the relative outperformer Friday (+1.64%), assisted by several strong earnings reports out of the financial sector Friday. The index trading range is roughly 2,050-2,260. If the Index can notch a fresh two-year closing high this could send a bullish technical signal to the markets that small caps are finally ready to join the party.

Market breadth:closed out the week strongly, with roughly 75% of SPX components trading above their respective 200-day moving averages. No change in market breadth. On a week-over-week basis, the SPX) breadth ticked down to 75.75% from 76.35%, the CCMP ticked up to 44.66% from 44.09%, and the RTY is flat at 55.87% from 55.76%.

Overseas: rates are in the news ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision Thursday. The ECB has cut rates twice in 2024, and analysts expect a third one next week and a fourth in December, Reuters reported.

Bonds: Economy defies gravity, sending bond yields higher. The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations by growing faster than expected. Despite all of the constraints —tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy, weak global growth, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and low consumer confidence. GDP growth has been running at about a 3% annualized pace over the past four quarters. The major driver behind the growth is consumer spending. Supported by steady job and income growth, consumers are spending at a pace that is keeping the economy buoyant. In the Treasury bond market, yields, which generally move inversely to prices, have rebounded on these signs of strength.

XLK, XLI, XLF, MAGS, KRE, IJR, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, IBM, CSCO, MU, DELL, CMG, WFC, BLK, GS, EBAY, VRT, ABNB, PINS, OGN, GOOGL, NXT, MBLY, FROG, AFRM, PANW, CRWD, GXO, HD, CLF, GLW, LEVI, DD.

What stands out to me: ever since the Microsoft Constellation energy deal, I have been looking for plays in the Energy sector particularly in nuclear power plants. Listen to Brad Gerstner podcast on BG2. I welcome any insight and news on the subject from any of you.

futures I am watching this week:

Have an amazing week.

The outlook contained in this article are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Futures trading is risky and suitable for everyone.

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Daily Levels for Oct. 15th 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
8710c1cf 3ba9 4dab 8d79 ea903065557b
Good Trading!
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Contact
S
Cannon Trading Company
12100 Wilshire Boulevard
Suite 1640
Los Angeles, CA 90025
(800) 454-9572
Follow Us
Facebook  Twitter  Instagram
Visit Our Website

 

Nasdaq 100 Futures, Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures, and S&P 500 Futures Trading: Utilizing Efficiency in Futures Trading

Futures trading has emerged as one of the most potent instruments in the financial markets, enabling traders to speculate on the future value of major stock indices. Among the most prominent futures contracts traded globally are Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ Futures), Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures (DJIA Futures), and S&P 500 Futures (ES Futures). These futures allow traders to capitalize on movements in stock indices, either for speculation or hedging purposes. By effectively utilizing these instruments, futures traders can enhance their potential for profitability while managing risk in dynamic market conditions.

In this article, we’ll explore these index futures contracts in detail, discuss their distinct characteristics, and examine how traders can employ them in effective trading strategies. We will also touch on associated keywords like ES Futures, NQ Futures, and Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures.

Overview of Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ Futures)

What are Nasdaq 100 Futures?

Nasdaq 100 Futures, denoted as NQ Futures, are contracts based on the Nasdaq 100 Index, which includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The companies in this index are largely in technology, telecommunications, retail, and healthcare sectors, making this contract particularly sensitive to tech-heavy stock movements.

Since technology plays an outsized role in the Nasdaq 100 Index, NQ Futures contracts are often seen as a way to gain exposure to the performance of high-growth tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Google’s parent company, Alphabet.

Key Specifications of Nasdaq 100 Futures

  • Contract Size: Each Nasdaq 100 futures contract is worth the index level multiplied by a contract multiplier of 20.
  • Tick Size: The minimum price fluctuation, or tick, is 0.25 points, which is equivalent to $5 per contract.
  • Trading Hours: Nasdaq 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week, providing ample trading opportunities in both U.S. and global market hours.

Trading Strategies for Nasdaq 100 Futures

Given the volatility and growth potential of the technology sector, Nasdaq 100 Futures are attractive for day traders, swing traders, and long-term investors. Traders often employ various strategies, including:

  • Trend Following: Traders may identify and capitalize on prevailing trends within the Nasdaq 100 Index. For instance, during bullish trends, traders might use long positions in NQ Futures to ride the upward momentum, while during bearish trends, shorting NQ Futures can be effective.
  • Hedging: Nasdaq 100 Futures are also popular among portfolio managers seeking to hedge risk in their tech-heavy stock portfolios. If a trader anticipates a downturn in the tech sector, they can hedge their risk by taking a short position in NQ Futures while maintaining their existing stock holdings.
  • Spread Trading: Spread strategies, such as trading the difference between Nasdaq 100 Futures and S&P 500 Futures (ES Futures), can exploit relative mispricing between these indices. Traders might short the Nasdaq and go long on the S&P 500 if they believe tech stocks will underperform the broader market.

Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures (DJIA Futures)

What are Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures?

The Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures are futures contracts that derive their value from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), an index comprising 30 of the largest and most influential companies in the United States. Unlike the Nasdaq 100, which skews toward technology, the DJIA encompasses a broad range of industries, including industrials, consumer goods, and financial services.

Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures, often referred to simply as DJIA Futures, are popular among traders looking to speculate or hedge their portfolios based on the overall performance of the U.S. economy’s blue-chip stocks.

Key Specifications of Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures

  • Contract Size: One DJIA Futures contract represents $10 times the DJIA Index value.
  • Tick Size: The minimum price movement is one point, which is equivalent to $10 per contract.
  • Trading Hours: Similar to other index futures, DJIA Futures are traded nearly 24 hours a day, allowing traders to access the market across global trading sessions. This contract is no longer in existence. The smaller size is the actual future contract traded.

Trading Strategies for Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures

Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures offer unique opportunities due to the stability and global recognition of the DJIA Index. Some common trading strategies include:

  1. Range Trading: Given the more stable and slower-moving nature of the Dow Jones Index, many traders use range-bound strategies. They may identify levels of support and resistance and trade within that range, buying near support and selling near resistance.
  2. Seasonal Trends: Certain sectors within the DJIA, like industrials, may experience seasonal performance variations. Traders may exploit these patterns by timing their entry into DJIA Futures contracts, particularly in months with historical outperformance for certain industries.
  3. Risk Management and Hedging: Since the DJIA Futures track large, well-established companies, they can serve as an excellent vehicle for hedging risk during periods of market uncertainty. Traders holding diversified portfolios with significant exposure to U.S. blue-chip stocks can use DJIA Futures to protect against potential downside risks.

S&P 500 Futures (ES Futures)

What are S&P 500 Futures?

The S&P 500 Futures, commonly known as ES Futures, are based on the S&P 500 Index, one of the most widely followed benchmarks for the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 includes 500 of the largest companies across all sectors, providing a broad view of the overall health of the U.S. economy.

ES Futures are widely traded and are considered among the most liquid index futures globally, making them a staple in the portfolios of futures traders. These contracts can be used to speculate on the general direction of the U.S. stock market or to hedge positions in large-cap stocks.

Key Specifications of S&P 500 Futures

  • Contract Size: One ES Futures contract is worth $50 times the S&P 500 Index level.
  • Tick Size: The minimum tick size is 0.25 index points, equivalent to $12.50 per contract.
  • Trading Hours: Like the other index futures, S&P 500 Futures trade virtually 24 hours a day, allowing traders to participate in global market movements.

Trading Strategies for S&P 500 Futures

Given the widespread use of ES Futures, traders have developed various strategies tailored to this market:

  1. Scalping: Scalping involves making small, quick trades to profit from minor price movements in ES Futures. Given the high liquidity and tight spreads in this market, scalping can be an effective strategy for active traders looking to capitalize on short-term volatility.
  2. Position Trading: For longer-term traders, S&P 500 Futures offer an opportunity to hold positions based on macroeconomic trends or long-term market outlooks. Traders might buy ES Futures in anticipation of a prolonged bull market or short the futures if they expect a recession or significant market correction.
  3. Options Strategies: Futures options on the S&P 500 are popular instruments for hedging and speculating. Traders might buy puts to hedge their long positions in the S&P 500 stocks or sell covered calls against ES Futures holdings to generate additional income.

Micro E-Mini Futures: A Flexible Alternative

The Micro E-Mini Futures, including Micro S&P 500 Futures, Micro Nasdaq 100 Futures, and Micro Dow Jones Futures, offer a smaller, more accessible version of these contracts. With contract sizes that are one-tenth the size of their full-sized counterparts, they have become a popular choice for retail traders who want exposure to index futures without the larger risk profile.

For example:

  • The Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) contract is worth $5 times the S&P 500 Index level, compared to $50 for the standard ES Futures contract.
  • The Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (MNQ) contract is worth $2 times the Nasdaq 100 Index level.
  • The Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures (MYM) contract is worth $0.50 times the DJIA Index level.

These micro contracts provide traders with greater flexibility in managing their risk, especially for those with smaller accounts.

Practical Applications of Futures Contracts in Trading

  1. Leverage and Margin Efficiency

Futures contracts allow traders to control a large position with a relatively small initial margin deposit. For example, instead of purchasing individual stocks within the S&P 500, traders can control the value of the entire index by trading ES Futures with significantly less capital. This leverage can amplify returns but also increases risk, making it crucial for traders to use proper risk management techniques.

  1. Hedging Stock Portfolios

Traders with stock portfolios can use futures contracts like Nasdaq 100 Futures or S&P 500 Futures to hedge against potential downturns in the market. For instance, if a trader is long on technology stocks but fears a market correction, they can short NQ Futures to offset potential losses in their portfolio.

  1. Diversification

Index futures provide exposure to broad segments of the stock market without the need to invest in individual stocks. By trading a combination of Nasdaq 100 Futures, Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures, and S&P 500 Futures, traders can diversify their risk across various sectors of the economy, benefiting from performance trends in different industries.

  1. Speculation on Macroeconomic Events

Futures traders often use index futures to speculate on macroeconomic events such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, corporate earnings reports, and geopolitical developments. For example, a trader anticipating positive economic data may go long on ES Futures to capitalize on anticipated market gains.

Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ Futures), Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures (DJIA Futures), and S&P 500 Futures (ES Futures) are powerful tools for traders looking to speculate on or hedge against stock market movements. Each of these contracts offers unique advantages, from the tech-heavy focus of the Nasdaq 100 to the broad market representation of the S&P 500. By employing strategies like trend following, hedging, and spread trading, traders can leverage these futures contracts to optimize their performance and manage risk effectively.

As futures trading continues to evolve with the introduction of smaller contracts like Micro E-Mini Futures, more traders can participate in these markets, benefiting from lower capital requirements and increased flexibility. Whether you are a retail trader seeking diversification or a professional looking to hedge risk, index futures remain essential instruments in the modern trading landscape.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 (US) or (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

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Weekly Newsletter: Free Trial to Advanced Daily Market Insight + Trading Levels for Oct. 14th

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1212

In this issue:

  •  Important Notices – Quiet Reports Week & Iran/Israel in background
  • Futures 101 – Advanced Market Insight – Free trial
  • Hot Market of the Week – December Heating Oil
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Unleaded Swing Trading System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

 

Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:

 

The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

 

 

A relatively Quiet Data week next week, Geopolitics may be the only driver of volatility. One Caveat: the Fed Speakers dialogue may be given much more weight by investors as there will be a lot less noise in the form of Economic Data and earnings from prominent “Magnificent Seven” stocks to drive market volatility.

 

Prominent Earnings this Week:

  • Tues, pre-open United Healthcare, B Of A, Goldman Sachs, Citi Group, Johns and Johnson
  • Wed. Abbott Labs,
  • Thu. NetFlix Post-Close

 

FED SPEECHES:

  • Mon. Kashkari, Waller, 2nd Kashkari.
  • Tue. Kugler, Bostic
  • Wed. QUIET
  • Thu. QUIET
  • Fri. Bostic, Waller, Kashkari, Bostic

 

Big Economic Data week:

  • Mon. BANKS CLOSED-Columbus Day National Holiday
  • Tues. Quiet
  • Wed. Quiet
  • Thur. Bus. Inventories, Jobless Claims.
  • Fri. Housing Starts, Building Permits

 

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  • Specific price points for shorter term, medium term and longer term
  • Detailed chart analysis
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  • View insight into Gold, Mini SP, Crude Oil, Corn, feeder Cattle, Live Cattle, Wheat, Hogs and more!

To sign up and get two weeks FULL access, start by requesting the free trial below.

START YOUR FREE TRIAL

 

 

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    • Hot Market of the Week – Heating Oil

    Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

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    December Heating Oil

    December heating oil Rallied to its second upside PriceCount objective before correcting. At this point if the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the 3rd count would project a possible run into the 2.59 area

     

    PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

   Broker’s Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.

Swing61B Cont v.3 _ RBOB Gasoline

PRODUCT

RB – RBOB ( unleaded gasoline)

 

SYSTEM TYPE

Swing Trading

 

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$25,000

 

COST

USD 160 / monthly

 

Get Started

Learn More

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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
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Daily Levels for October 14th, 2024

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Weekly Levels for the week of October 14th, 2024

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Futures Trading Levels for Oct. 11th, 2024

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PPI numbers, University of Michigan survey and two FOMC members speaking tomorrow, Friday, Oct. 11th!

Ask a Broker: Futures Spreads Trading

Ask a Broker: Futures Spreads Trading
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December Heating Oil

December heating oil Rallied to its second upside PriceCount objective before correcting. At this point if the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the 3rd count would project a possible run into the 2.59 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 11th 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Good Trading!
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Los Angeles, CA 90025
(800) 454-9572
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Crude Oil Rally Targets Amidst Busy Day of CPI, Natural Gas, and 30-Year Auction

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CPI numbers, Natural gas numbers, 30 year auction and more on a busy day tomorrow!  

Ask a Broker: What is Day Trading Futures? watch below!

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November Crude Oil

November crude oil completed its first upside PriceCount objective to the $78 area and is correcting with a reversal trade. IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the second count would project a possible run to the 82.76 area.

image 14

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for October 10, 2024

image 15

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

image 16

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.   #Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology

Market Consolidation Amidst Volatile Metals, Energy Declines, and Hurricane Milton

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Hurricane

Movers and Shakers

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

With Equities quietly trading in a consolidation phase since September 19th, Interest rates following, the precious metals ,once again surprised many traders with their mid-day selloff after last week’s Highest weekly Silver close since May of this year Silver down $1.30 or $6500.00 from yesterdays close per contract.

Gold lower by $33.00 @ 2634.00,

The US Dollar continuing to firm up after it’s end of Q3 Low, trading over 2 cents higher at 1.0227 ending it’s 2.5 month long slide after flirting with 14 month lows of 99.22. .

The Energy complex Dropping significantly today Crude off 4.25 %, the products off 3.5 to 4 %  as the menace that’s called Milton is racing East toward the Florida Gulf Coast,

Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic was quoted “ Hurricanes have significant potential implications for US economy over the next couple quarters”

          So, with the Fed Funds, Interest rate markets and Equities range bound waiting for tomorrows FOMC Minutes @ 11:00 am CDT, and the looming Cat 5 potential Catastrophe, In addition to Heightened middle east tensions, Vigilance is the word and may be an opportunity to use options to enhance or protect your trading portfolio. Here is a fresh take by the EIA on short term price expectations in the winter months for the entire energy complex, freshly produced today! Take a look!.  https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/perspectives/2024/10-winterfuels/article.php

 FOMC Minutes tomorrow as well as Crude Oil Inventories

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Daily Levels for October 9, 2024

image 11

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

image 12

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.   #Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology

Market Rises Alongside 10-Year Yield: Navigating Earnings, Inflation, and Geopolitical Risks

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Market is going up but so is the 10-year yield

7 October 2024

By GalTrades.com

Market is going up but so is the 10-year yield***

Advancing shares outnumbered declining ones by three-to-one this week through midday Friday, and seven of 11 S&Psectors trade with 80% or more of their components above their 50-day moving averages. This wide breadth indicates the cyclical trade into sectors beyond mega caps remains intact and markets aren’t moving toward defensive trades at the equity level.

On a technical basis, the SPXheld it’s ground this week above the prior all-time closing high from July despite geopolitical uncertainty . The uptrend remains intact, and the bulls still appear to be in control. 

Less bullish note, the SPX now trades at a nearly 22 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, historically high. This might damper investor enthusiasm for now, though solid earnings growth could help ease valuations.

Unfortunately for anyone banking on improved earnings growth, analysts keep backing up the truck. The average third quarter S&P 500 earnings per share estimate slipped to 4.2% today from 4.6% a week ago, according to research firm FactSet. That’s down from 7.8% at the end of June. 

The FED is easing, and the path of least resistance is intact. The S&P 500 is less than 1% below all-time highs, following September’s strong Nonfarm Payrolls report. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, the U.S. economy is in solid shape and the Federal Reserve intends to keep it that way, Consumer household debt is very high. If the economy performs as expected, that would mean a total of 50 basis points of cuts for the remainder of this year, Powell said.

Stronger-than-expected September jobs data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday added fuel to arguments in favor of a soft landing, inflation closing in on the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. A gain of 254,000 nonfarm jobs last month paired with easing unemployment, it signals that the labor market remains on solid footing. And should help reduce calls for another big rate cut. Fed officials, however, will also have a couple more inflation readings to review before the meeting, as well as weekly jobless claims data and consumer spending updates. All of that could shift the economic outlook in the coming weeks.

The market now expects 25-basis-point interest rate cuts at the Fed’s November and December meetings following September’s 50-basis-point cut. That would equal 100 basis points, or 1 percentage point, worth of rate cuts before year-end. measured, methodical rate cuts. The U.S. economy is based on services, and we want consumers to stay robust as the Fed brings borrowing costs down. 

Friday’s jump in the 10-year Treasury yield on the jobs report. Home loans loosely follow the 10-year and rates on a 30-year fixed jumped Friday morning to 6.53%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

While the port strike ended, labor strikes have become more common, which likely translates into higher wages (wage gains from Fridays nonfarm payrolls report were +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected. For now, inflation data has been trending toward the Fed’s target. 

Analysts are saying this is Goldilocks scenario for the markets. Others are saying we might see some upside for inflation, crude prices are up 10% due to Middle East tensions. Wage inflation can play a role. The election can be a risk. But good news is good news. The positive forces should propel the market higher. 

Any money manager that’s been bearish this year is behind the index if they were in cash and now, they have to jump in. Who wants to sell now and have tax gains. Nine months into the year and we’re up 20%. plus, money that comes out of the declining money-market funds and expiring U.S. government bonds should make its way into equities, 

NOTE: The commodities futures trader report last week shows that large speculators and leveraged funds have the largest net short position in the 10 year treasury futures. they see long term interest rate going up. 

Why aren’t small caps rallying? Small caps and value trade together and value started to outperform growth, perhaps small caps will play catch up. typically, you see small caps outperform a year after the first cut. 

Next week we’ve got several potential market moving catalysts, highlighted by monthly Inflation data: The September consumer price index (CPI) report is out Thursday. Economists are expecting a 2.2% year-over-year increase at the headline level, and a 3.1% year-over-year increase at the core level, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. watch the CPI’s shelter index, which has been a key underlying source of overall inflation. slowing of year-over-year price increases in shelter would be welcome.September producer price index (PPI) is out Friday. While the Fed is more concerned about consumer prices, the PPI is still important because if wholesale prices go up more than expected it might mean higher retail prices down the line as companies look to protect their margins. These inflation numbers will certainly figure into the Fed’s calculations concerning future rate cuts.

We also have the Robotaxi event for Tesla and Advanced Micro Devices holds an important artificial intelligence event.

Look out for next Friday’s big bank earnings reports (JPM, WFC, BK).

FactSet is currently forecasting Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 to be up a healthy 4.6%, down from the 7.8% at the start of the quarter.

Sectors worth watching; tech, cyclical, Housing, cybersecurity, aviation, power & grid. 

Summary: The intermediate technicals are bullish, but near-term price action has been choppy to sideways over the past few weeks. Geopolitical risk remains high, and the Fed may not be as accommodative as previously expected, the stronger than expected U.S. economic data appears to be the primary driver of the near-term direction for stocks, and that direction is higher for now. any upside surprises in the CPI report may cause for a correction. Earnings should help navigate market direction. 

The outlook contained in this article are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Futures trading is risky and suitable for everyone.

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Daily Levels for October 4, 2024

image 8

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.   #Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology