Cannon Trading Blog

Movers & Shakers

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Todays Headlines

**US June NAR Existing Homes Sales: -5.4%; expected -4.0%

**US June NAR Existing Homes Sales: 3.89 mln unit annualized rate; expected 3.95 mln

**US June NAR Existing Homes Median Home Price: $426,900 ; +4.1% vs yr ago month

**US June NAR Existing Homes Inventory of Unsold Homes: 4.1 Months

**Richmond Fed July Manufacturing New Orders: -23.0 ; prior -17.0

Updated: July 23, 2024 10:19 am

President Biden’s administration senior climate policy advisor, Podesta, said they will seek to curb nitrous oxide emissions . The administration claims nitrous oxide and methane cause the other half of climate change. Nitrous oxide emissions come from a variety of sources including some fertilizers and synthetic materials production. It’s unclear what the costs will be to cut the emissions.

Russia’s Deputy PM Novak Tuesday said the Kremlin will restart gasoline export ban starting August 1st, and then consider extensions in September and October

Traders Tuesday afternoon estimated commodity funds added a net 7,500 Chicago corn futures, but shed a net 1,500 Chicago wheat. Traders estimate funds bought a net 5,500 Soybean, 2,000 soymeal and 1,500 soyoil contracts on Tuesday.

Tomorrows Movers and Shakers

S&P Global group will release their US prelim July manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers indexes (PMI) at 8:45 am CT Wednesday morning. Analysts expect the manufacturing index at 51.5 compared to the 51.6 in the final June report. The service index for early July is expected at 55.0 compared to the 55.3 in the final June report.

US new home sales data for June will be updated Wednesday morning at 9:00 am CT. Analysts expect new home sales month-to-month at a 0.640 mln unit annualized pace, up +3.4%. The prior month’s sales were -11.3% at 0.619 mln unit annual rate.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Stocks Estimates for Wednesday, July 24 at 9:30 AM CT

in million barrels per day (mln bpd)

IBM reports after the close

Daily Levels for July 24th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

The Week Ahead by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Economic Data :

• Mon. Chi Fed Natl Activity index,
• Tues. Redbook, Existing Home Sales
• Wed. Bldg Permits, Trade Balance, Retail/Wholesale Inventories , PMI, New Home Sales.
• Thu. Durable Goods, GDP and Jobless Claims
• Fri. Core PCE, Mich. Consumer Sentiment

Earnings Reports:

• Tues. A.M. UPS – P.M. Google, Tesla, Visa, Texas Instruments
• Wed. A.M. CME – P.M. IBM, Qualcom

Fed Speakers:

• Just one this week that we know of, Wed, Bowman @3:05 P.M. Central

Hot Market Report – October Lean Hogs

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

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October Lean Hogs

October lean hogs finally stabilized their extended slide and activated upside PriceCount objectives on the correction higher. The recovery rally has accelerated and is approaching the second upside PriceCount objective to the 75.62 area.

PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 22nd, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Light reports day tomorrow after a very volatile week, which for the most part saw significant rotation from the high tech sector into the Dow 30 sector.

If you are a TradingView users, we have good news for you!

Lower day trading margins, mobile TradingView App and more!

Contact your Cannon Trading broker if you are a client and feel free to reach out with any questions if you are a client or a prospect and a series 3 team member will gladly answer your questions.

Today’s most noticeable mover was copper futures, down 3.3% after a sell signal yesterday was confirmed by a price break lower.

Daily chart for your review below.

Daily Levels for July 19th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

What you need to know for July 18th – Futures Markets

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

Indexes:  

The September E-mini S&P 500 stock index futures contract climbed to it latest all-time high yesterday, closing at 5715.50, only to see its largest sell-off in two years today, currently down ±72 points / 1.25%.

Leading the index pack, however, the September E-mini Nasdaq is currently down ±625 points / 3.00% and ±900 points from its own all-time high posted last Wednesday, closing then at 20,896.50 and breaching 20,000 at this blog’s typing.

Metals: 

Gold prices traded up to an all-time high today on growing optimism the U.S. Federal Reserve will conduct an interest-rate cut in September.  The front month August futures contract dropped about 0.26% to $2,459.90 per ounce due to profit-taking after hitting an all-time high of $2,488.40 earlier in the session.

Markets now see a 98% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

Following suit, September silver lost ±95 cents (a ±$4750 per contract move) to near $30.50/ounce.

Energies: 

Natural gas futures suffered another bout of heavy selling today with the front month August contract losing ±15 cents (a $1,500 per contract move) / 6.75% today and closing near two-month lows and within a few cents of $2.000 /mmBtu.  Despite hot weather across much of the U.S. driving power-sector demand, large inventory surplus numbers have proved an overhang for prices

Daily Levels for July 18th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Movers & Shakers

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Today’s Headlines recap:

• The Int’l Monetary Fund (IMF) raised their 2024 China growth forecast to +5.0% from the previous +4.6% estimate
• CDC officials Tuesday said there are still no signs of human to human transmission of bird flu, risk of infection still remains very low for the general population
• The Int’l Monetary Fund (IMF) claimed tariff increases could push inflation upward.
• Fed Gov Kugler: inflation upside risks and labor market down side risks have become more balanced, but would be appropriate to lower rates sooner rather than later if labor market cools too much. If economic conditions continue to evolve favorably, then it will be appropriate to begin easing later this year

Tomorrow’s Market movers:

• US housing starts and building permit data will be released Wednesday morning at 7:30 am CT. Economists are forecasting housing starts +1.8% month-to-month to 1.30 mln unit annualized pace in June. They are also forecasting US building permit data +1.0% to 1.40 mln unit rate.
• Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak at a Greater Prince George’s Business Roundtable event Wednesday, starting around 8:00 am CT.
• The Federal Reserve will release their monthly industrial production and capacity utilization data Wednesday morning around 8:15 am CT. Analysts expect June production +0.3% on month-to-month terms, and expect capacity use at 78.5% compared to the previous month’s 78.7%.
•  Kansas City Fed event will start Wednesday with Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Kansas City Fed President Schmid set to give opening remarks around 8:35 am CT.
• US Treasury announced it will auction $60 bln in 17 wk TBills on Wednesday
• Federal Reserve “Beige Book” of anecdotal economic conditions from US Federal Reserve districts will be released Wednesday afternoon around 1:00 pm CT.

Daily Levels for July 17th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Busy day tomorrow!

• Core Retail Sales m/m
• Import Prices m/m
• Business Inventories m/m
• NAHB Housing Market Index
• FOMC Member Kugler Speaks

Please see all Data Release times below on the calendar!

Daily Levels for July 16th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1201

• Important Notices – Earnings, FED Speakers, Upcoming Reports
• Futures 101 – Trading Psychology Self help Course
• Hot Market of the Week – August Crude Oil
• Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Mini Nasdaq Swing Trading System
• Trading Levels for Next Week
• Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:

• Fresh Earnings, Fed Powell Monday, Heavy economic Data.

  • On the earnings front ( I always list according to Largest Net Cap) (over 350 earnings reports)

  16th: United Healthcare, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. 17th Johnson & Johnson. 18th Netflix

  • Fed Speaker menagerie: Chair Powell at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. Monday 11:3.0 am Central , the rest of the week, Kugler, Barkin, Waller, Logan, Daly, Bowman and Williams.

  • Lively Economic Data! (should be lively for market action) Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilization, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed.

  • Check the calendar for dates and times!

• Futures 101: Trading Psychology Course

  In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn:
  • How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back
  • Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience
  • The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses
  • Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality
  • Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage
  • Creating effective trading technique strategies
  • Qualities of Successful Traders
  ACCESS THE COURSE NOW

• Hot Market of the Week – August Crude Oil

Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?

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Daily Levels for July 15th 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

PPI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment and perhaps more important, inflation expectation tomorrow.

Silver daily chart below, trying to decide between breaking higher or failing at resistance. Tomorrow’s reports may help.

Daily Levels for July 12th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Heading into the last 2 trading days of the week!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

The two-day testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell – in front of the Senate Banking Committee yesterday and the House Financial Services Committee today – is over.  Akin to required summer reading, traders are all ears listening for clues on the central bank’s outlook on the current economic environment and future interest rate policy.  The head of the central bank acknowledged the cooling job market and persistently high prices.  If chair Powell tipped his hand at all, he did indicate the Fed had made “considerable progress,” in quelling inflation over the last two years, though it still remains above the central bank’s 2% target.

From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate 11 times to a two-decade high of 5.3% to fight inflation, which peaked at 9.1% two years prior.  Those hikes increased the cost of consumer borrowing by raising rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, among other forms of borrowing. The goal was to slow borrowing and spending and cool the economy.

Up next, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index report tomorrow at 7:30 A.M., Central Time, which measures the prices paid by consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services.  Economists see headline CPI slowing to 3% year-over-year growth.  Core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to hold steady at annualized growth of 3.4%. The Producer Price Index will be released Friday.

Indexes: 

The September S&P 500 stock index futures contract climbed to it latest all-time high today, currently ±5673.00 up 41.75 points / ± 0.75% – its 36th record high of the year.  The September Nasdaq futures contract followed suit, thrusting up ± 1% / ± 190 points to near 20,900.

General, Part 2: 

Take a look at the top returns for the first half of 2024 among major global financial assets.

In first place with a 22% return: Silver.  After the S&P 500 and NASDAQ in second and third place (two of the most actively traded futures contracts) the next four top returns came from commodities: WTI crude oil, Copper, Gold and Brent crude oil.

Daily Levels for July 11th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Powell Testimony, CPI and PPI.

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

With a 20 point swing in the ES and a 155 point range in the NQ today and In lieu of the fact we have two days of Humphrey Hawkins testimony in both chambers of the house this week, I have always wondered what he Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices have been historically.

From the Cleveland Fed, I found a scholarly paper Dated 2023, for the numbers nerds among us, that attempts to, through past data sets, assign volatility to price changes in Long term and short term Treasuries and the S & P 500 index, during and after the testimony. Here are some links I hope some of you will enjoy. The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices   wp2326 (4).pdf  https://www.clevelendfed.org>working-papers.

If you opt not to read the document, here is a quick synopsis of their conclusions: Day 1 causes the largest price movements compared to day 2. They go on to talk about the differences in the types of testimony and their findings on price volatility associated with that testimony. Be prepared for the next Humphey -Hawkins, Semi-annual testimony!

What are the US CPI Report Expectations? Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

What are the US PPI Report Expectations? Producer prices in June are expected to rise 0.1 percent on the month versus an unexpected 0.2 percent decline in May. The annual rate in June is seen at 2.3 percent versus May’s 2.2 percent. June’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen up 0.2 percent on the month versus no change in the prior month.

Daily Levels for July 10th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.