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  Movers and Shakers By John Thorpe, Senior Broker Long Shoreman Strike / Israel Struck Activity today was volatile both for Equities and outside markets. The Beast awoke at 9 a.m. eastern on queue, when equity futures prices sank, simultaneously rallying Crude oil and Metals futures, Gold and Silver leading the charge. As the threats turned into reality of both Strikes occurring, 200 shells lobbed from Iran were, in large part intercepted with minimal damage and loss of life. The unsettling potential effects to the supply chain and the conflicts in middle east potentially leading to an Iranian attempt at a Straights of Hormuz Blockage sending Crude oil Up over $3.00/bbl before settling down to just 2 bucks higher.. as the markets expanded early to mid day, cooler heads seemed to prevail, the markets contracted as they absorbed the headlines..     Movers and shakers! Today’s News: Updated: October 1, 2024 7:37 am “The Administration is taking action to monitor and address potential impacts on consumers due to labor disputes at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. Our analysis shows we should not expect significant changes to food prices or availability in the near term. Thanks to the typically smooth movement through the ports of goods, and our strong domestic agricultural production, we do not expect shortages anytime in the near future for most items. Likewise, non-containerized bulk export shipments, including grains, would be unaffected by this strike. For meat and poultry items that are exported through East and Gulf Coast ports, available storage space and re-direction of products to alternative domestic and international markets can alleviate some of the pressure on farmers and food processors. We are keeping an eye on downstream impacts in the west, and we will continue to monitor and work with industry to respond to potential impacts. Our Administration supports collective bargaining as the best way for workers and employers to come to a fair agreement, and we encourage all parties to come to the bargaining table and negotiate in good faith—fairly and quickly.”   Updated: October 1, 2024 7:55 am Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap   **Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +5.2% in the first four weeks of September 2024 vs September 2023 **Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +5.3% in the week ending September 28 vs yr ago week Updated: October 1, 2024 8:37 am The September Purdue University Ag Economy Barometer recorded its lowest readings since March 2016 at 88 down from 100 in the prior month. Declining income expectations pushed farmer sentiment down, and the Index of Future Expectations dropped 14 points to 94. The Index of Current Conditions also fell to 76 from 83 in the prior month, which nearly matched levels seen in April 2020, during the height of COVID-19 concerns for farmers.   Updated: October 1, 2024 9:01 am Institute of Supply Management (ISM) US Manufacturing Headline Recap   **ISM US September Manufacturing Composite Index: 47.2 ; expected 47.4 ; prior month 47.2 **ISM US September Manufacturing Prices Paid: 48.3 vs prior month 54.0 **ISM US September Manufacturing Employment: 43.9 vs prior month 46.0 **ISM US September Manufacturing New Orders: 46.1 vs prior month 44.6 **ISM US September Manufacturing Inventories: 43.9 vs prior month 50.3 **ISM US September Manufacturing Production: 49.8 vs prior month 44.8 Updated: October 1, 2024 8:46 am US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for August 2024 will be released this morning around 9:00 am CT. Last month’s report estimated the end of July job openings at 7.673 million.       Watch Tomorrow’s Movers and Shakers: 4 fed Speakers Hammack, Musalem, Bowman and Barkin during market hours .       Earnings: only 9 headed by ConAgra  

   

Daily Levels for October 2, 2024

Economic Reports provided by: ForexFactory.com All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.   #Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology

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The beginning of an interest rate cycle

September 30, 2024 by GalTrades.com The beginning of an interest rate cycle causes portfolio managers to reevaluate what’s in their portfolio. Stock valuations are fully priced, as long as the economic data continues to support the case for a soft-to- (potentially) no landing, it seems the path of least resistance continues to be higher. However, the bulls will likely need Q3 earnings, which start in about two weeks, to come in relatively strong to support current valuations. China stocks recorded one of the largest weekly gains on record. In the U.S., several industries that potentially benefit from China’s stimulus plan, such as materials and industrials, outperformed this week. The China story can put a floor for steel prices. China issued the most stimulus package since COVID, Analysts are saying this is the first inning. The rate cut, lower interest rate, cutting down payment for investment properties by 10%, 140 billion in new lending, they are focused on consumption stimulus. And the Government said they are committed to more, that should lead to better growth. Portfolio managers have been very underweight and unexposed to China. they have to jump in otherwise their clients may complain. As of now it should be a trade for a few months. Whether this is a long-term play remains to be seen. Stocks and ETF’s that so upside momentum from the China trade, FXI, KWEB, BABA, JD, LI, PDD, BIDU, NTES, FCX, ETN, WYNN, LVS (63% of LVS revenue is in Macau, they are due to stop spending on renovations early 24) View my YouTube from last week regarding KWEB and where I see the ETF next targets according to technical analysis. Positives signs for the market: GDP estimates point to a healthy economy 3.1 % real GDP pace, there was a huge increase in wealth 16 straight months of wage gains, should be continued momentum for our economy. On the other hand, strategist forecast relative to where the market is trading now are the most bearish 5483 which is 5% below where the S&P500 is currently at. This week’s economic data was mostly bullish for equity markets: this morning’s inflation data helps support the case that inflation is on track toward the Fed’s 2.0% target; jobless claims continue to come in below estimates; and Points to consider: The market wants to melt up some more, first because the Fed will likely loosen monetary policy further. The Fed’s dot plot outlined several more cuts to come; high rates need to come down to support economic growth. That all but guarantees that the economy will stay in growth mode and won’t hit recession any time soon. Lower rates would only boost consumer spending on housing and other goods and services—a demand picture that will spur investment from companies, helping the industrial economy specifically. As long as the market envisions this growth trajectory, it can stay up. S&P 500 trades at 21 times expected earnings for the coming 12 months, the high end of its range since the Fed moved rates up from 0% in early 2022. But earnings are increasing. The index is currently trading at less than 21 times expected 2025 earnings of $276 a share according to FactSet, so the index could hold strong through the end of this year. Earnings per share for the index could grow 14% annually to $310 in 2026. As long as cost inflation—such as moderate increases in wages and salaries, isn’t too burdensome companies could increase their profit margins a bit. Next week we only have a few earnings reports. so, the focus will likely remain on the economic data. Friday’s monthly jobs data will be the highlight, but Tuesday’s JOLTS report will provide an important read on the labor market. .The S&P sold off following the release of the last two monthly jobs reports (-1.8% & -1.7% respectively). In the days leading up to Friday’s report however we shouldn’t expect too much volatility. And depending on the jobs data report we’re probably going higher or lower. There is an upcoming negotiation deadline (Monday at midnight) between East Coast dock worker unions and terminal operators which could result in a strike. If the dock workers end up striking, this may put some selling pressure on stocks because of the potential inflationary impact on goods prices. Lots of talk about jeans trends these days keep an eye out for Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) reporting on Wednesday. Nike Inc. (NKE) is reporting on Monday, China is 15% of Nike sales. The market is powered by the rotation, look at the fallowing ETFs for confirmation: RSP is the equal weight, IJR is mid cap and IWM is small cap, industrial, materials energy & Cyclical were amongst the strongest this week, we want to see continued upside. Is this market priced to perfection? It seems so; therefore, we need to keep an eye on earnings and economic data. META new all-time highs, ETN is a part of data center energy infostructure story. If your building data centers, you need industrial earth moving equipment as well. The Russell 2000 the index appeared to be breaking out of a bull flag formation. If the RUT is able to clear its prior 52-week high from back in July, this could shift the “rotation trade” into a higher gear and would likely be viewed as a bullish confirmation for the overall economy. On a technical level, the NDX filled the July 17 GAP, the SPX RSI on a weekly chart has lower high’s which is concerning given the fact that its not supporting the SPX move higher. Due to the technical issues, I see and the fact that a lot of indicators are very stretched I think one should trade with extreme caution.    

 

Daily Levels for October 1, 2024

  Economic Reports provided by: ForexFactory.com All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.   #Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1210

 

The Week Ahead

Non-Farm Payrolls, Many Fed Speakers within a very active Data week.

Earnings? Not so much  only 129 company’s reporting the largest by market cap will be Nike after the Tuesday close, PayChex come in second place pre-open Tuesday.

 

 

Fed Speak:

• Mon. Bowman
• Tues. Bostic, Cook, Barkin
• Wed. Hammack, Musalem, Bowman, Barkin
• Thu. Bostic
• Fri. Williams

 

 

Big Economic Data week:

• Mon. Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Munufaturing Index,
• Tues. JOLTS,RedBook,S&P Final PMI, ISM PMI
• Wed. ADP, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
• Thur. Continuing Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, Fed Balance Sheet
• Fri. Non Farm Payrolls

How to Rollover on the E-Futures Platform video below

 

 

 

 

• • Hot Market of the Week – December Gold

  Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

  FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

  July / December Corn Spread

  

  The July – Dec corn spread activated upside PriceCount objectives off the July low and satisfied the first count early this month before consolidating with a sideways trade. From here, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the second count would project a possible run to the +3 1/2 area.

   

  PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been, but where we might be going next!

 

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  PCE tomorrow is watched closely by the FED and traders followed by Univ. of Michigan inflation expectations.

Natural gas outlook below for your review

Plan your trade and trade your plan  

 

November Natural Gas   November natural gas activated upside PriceCount objectives off the September low. The chart quickly has completed the first objective where we are getting a reaction with a near term correction/consolidation trade. At this point, if you can resume the rally with new sustained highs, the second count would project a potential run to the 3.02 area.

  The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results

Daily Levels for September 27, 2024

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.   #Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology