Cannon Trading Blog

Movers & Shakers

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Today’s Headlines recap:

• The Int’l Monetary Fund (IMF) raised their 2024 China growth forecast to +5.0% from the previous +4.6% estimate
• CDC officials Tuesday said there are still no signs of human to human transmission of bird flu, risk of infection still remains very low for the general population
• The Int’l Monetary Fund (IMF) claimed tariff increases could push inflation upward.
• Fed Gov Kugler: inflation upside risks and labor market down side risks have become more balanced, but would be appropriate to lower rates sooner rather than later if labor market cools too much. If economic conditions continue to evolve favorably, then it will be appropriate to begin easing later this year

Tomorrow’s Market movers:

• US housing starts and building permit data will be released Wednesday morning at 7:30 am CT. Economists are forecasting housing starts +1.8% month-to-month to 1.30 mln unit annualized pace in June. They are also forecasting US building permit data +1.0% to 1.40 mln unit rate.
• Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak at a Greater Prince George’s Business Roundtable event Wednesday, starting around 8:00 am CT.
• The Federal Reserve will release their monthly industrial production and capacity utilization data Wednesday morning around 8:15 am CT. Analysts expect June production +0.3% on month-to-month terms, and expect capacity use at 78.5% compared to the previous month’s 78.7%.
•  Kansas City Fed event will start Wednesday with Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Kansas City Fed President Schmid set to give opening remarks around 8:35 am CT.
• US Treasury announced it will auction $60 bln in 17 wk TBills on Wednesday
• Federal Reserve “Beige Book” of anecdotal economic conditions from US Federal Reserve districts will be released Wednesday afternoon around 1:00 pm CT.

Daily Levels for July 17th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Busy day tomorrow!

• Core Retail Sales m/m
• Import Prices m/m
• Business Inventories m/m
• NAHB Housing Market Index
• FOMC Member Kugler Speaks

Please see all Data Release times below on the calendar!

Daily Levels for July 16th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1201

• Important Notices – Earnings, FED Speakers, Upcoming Reports
• Futures 101 – Trading Psychology Self help Course
• Hot Market of the Week – August Crude Oil
• Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Mini Nasdaq Swing Trading System
• Trading Levels for Next Week
• Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:

• Fresh Earnings, Fed Powell Monday, Heavy economic Data.

  • On the earnings front ( I always list according to Largest Net Cap) (over 350 earnings reports)

  16th: United Healthcare, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. 17th Johnson & Johnson. 18th Netflix

  • Fed Speaker menagerie: Chair Powell at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. Monday 11:3.0 am Central , the rest of the week, Kugler, Barkin, Waller, Logan, Daly, Bowman and Williams.

  • Lively Economic Data! (should be lively for market action) Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilization, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed.

  • Check the calendar for dates and times!

• Futures 101: Trading Psychology Course

  In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn:
  • How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back
  • Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience
  • The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses
  • Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality
  • Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage
  • Creating effective trading technique strategies
  • Qualities of Successful Traders
  ACCESS THE COURSE NOW

• Hot Market of the Week – August Crude Oil

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Daily Levels for July 15th 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

PPI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment and perhaps more important, inflation expectation tomorrow.

Silver daily chart below, trying to decide between breaking higher or failing at resistance. Tomorrow’s reports may help.

Daily Levels for July 12th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Heading into the last 2 trading days of the week!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

The two-day testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell – in front of the Senate Banking Committee yesterday and the House Financial Services Committee today – is over.  Akin to required summer reading, traders are all ears listening for clues on the central bank’s outlook on the current economic environment and future interest rate policy.  The head of the central bank acknowledged the cooling job market and persistently high prices.  If chair Powell tipped his hand at all, he did indicate the Fed had made “considerable progress,” in quelling inflation over the last two years, though it still remains above the central bank’s 2% target.

From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate 11 times to a two-decade high of 5.3% to fight inflation, which peaked at 9.1% two years prior.  Those hikes increased the cost of consumer borrowing by raising rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, among other forms of borrowing. The goal was to slow borrowing and spending and cool the economy.

Up next, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index report tomorrow at 7:30 A.M., Central Time, which measures the prices paid by consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services.  Economists see headline CPI slowing to 3% year-over-year growth.  Core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to hold steady at annualized growth of 3.4%. The Producer Price Index will be released Friday.

Indexes: 

The September S&P 500 stock index futures contract climbed to it latest all-time high today, currently ±5673.00 up 41.75 points / ± 0.75% – its 36th record high of the year.  The September Nasdaq futures contract followed suit, thrusting up ± 1% / ± 190 points to near 20,900.

General, Part 2: 

Take a look at the top returns for the first half of 2024 among major global financial assets.

In first place with a 22% return: Silver.  After the S&P 500 and NASDAQ in second and third place (two of the most actively traded futures contracts) the next four top returns came from commodities: WTI crude oil, Copper, Gold and Brent crude oil.

Daily Levels for July 11th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Powell Testimony, CPI and PPI.

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

With a 20 point swing in the ES and a 155 point range in the NQ today and In lieu of the fact we have two days of Humphrey Hawkins testimony in both chambers of the house this week, I have always wondered what he Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices have been historically.

From the Cleveland Fed, I found a scholarly paper Dated 2023, for the numbers nerds among us, that attempts to, through past data sets, assign volatility to price changes in Long term and short term Treasuries and the S & P 500 index, during and after the testimony. Here are some links I hope some of you will enjoy. The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices   wp2326 (4).pdf  https://www.clevelendfed.org>working-papers.

If you opt not to read the document, here is a quick synopsis of their conclusions: Day 1 causes the largest price movements compared to day 2. They go on to talk about the differences in the types of testimony and their findings on price volatility associated with that testimony. Be prepared for the next Humphey -Hawkins, Semi-annual testimony!

What are the US CPI Report Expectations? Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

What are the US PPI Report Expectations? Producer prices in June are expected to rise 0.1 percent on the month versus an unexpected 0.2 percent decline in May. The annual rate in June is seen at 2.3 percent versus May’s 2.2 percent. June’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen up 0.2 percent on the month versus no change in the prior month.

Daily Levels for July 10th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Lower volume than usual today across the board, with choppy action in stock indices.

Summer trading? 4th of July extended vacations to some of the larger money? perhaps the light calendar and maybe it is all of the above.

Looks like a Light week ahead, based on reports below BUT we have CPI, PPI as well as:

Heavy Fed Speak and Data :

We have Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell providing testimony to congress’s Semiannual Monetary Policy report, Tuesday its the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and urban affairs. Wednesday it’s Before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. In addition to 4 other Fed Speakers, Barr, Bowman, Goolsbee and Cook.

On the data front, impressive releases: Used Car Data, Consumer Inflation Expectations, Consumer Credit, NFIB Business Optimism Index, Jobless Claims, CPI, PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

And Finally, WASDE release on Friday @11 a.m. Central

Daily Levels for July 9th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements     

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

Happy Independence Day eve. Heads up traders. While tomorrow, July 4th is a holiday, the next day, July 5th is the first Friday of the month and for traders it marks the release of the Labor Department’s monthly Non-farm payrolls report. The report is widely considered to be one of the most important and influential measures of the U.S. economy. It’s released at 7:30 A.M., Central Time.

The economy is expected to have added 190,000 jobs in June, a step down from the 272,000 new jobs in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4%. Average hourly earnings are expected to decline from 0.4% in May to 0.3% in June, in a potential good sign for the Fed.

Stock Indexes:

The Nasdaq climbed to new all-time highs today as traders continued their buying into the excitement surrounding artificial-intelligence technology.

The S&P 500 rose to set an all-time high for the 33rd time this year.

4th of July modified trading hours! Full schedule HERE

https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/support-resistance-levels/4th-of-july-2024-holiday-schedule-for-cme-exchange-hours/

Daily Levels for July 5th, 2024

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Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Choppy, Exhilarating Market week, yet to come..

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Look for a quiet July 3rd trading morning due to an early trading halt in the stock indices, 12:15 Central time to be exact.

HOWEVER, the rest of the futures markets will be closing normal times.

After the equity market Halt in Wednesday, FOMC Minutes will be released @ 1:00p.m. Central. Watch the outside markets react, Currency’s, Interest Rates, Metals to get an Idea of how the equities will react when they re-open on the Eve of the 4th of July.

Friday at 7:30 a.m. central, the very meaningful, Non-Farm Payrolls will be released.

In celebration of America’s 248th birthday, our team decided to take a look at this holiday through the fascinating lens of numbers. As it Turns out, these figures paint a vivid picture of what makes the Fourth of July such an extraordinary celebration. With that in mind, we thought we would share what we found with you:

• $9.5 billion – The estimated amount Americans spent on 4th of July food in 2023 — about $93.34 per person.
• 150 million – The number of hot dogs consumed each 4th of July — enough to stretch from D.C. to L.A. more than five times. It’s also the number of American flags sold in the U.S. each year.
• 2 million – The number of people who tuned in to watch 2023 Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest champs Miki Sudo and Joey Chestnut consume approximately 102 hot dogs combined.
• $3 billion – The estimated amount of dollars Americans spent on beer and wine for the Fourth of July in 2023. If you partake, just remember to enjoy responsibly!
• $2.3 billion – The total U.S. consumers spent on fireworks in 2023.
• 50.7 million – The number of people who traveled 50+ miles from home for the 4th of July, up 4% from 2022.

These numbers highlight how Americans like to go all out in our nationwide Independence Day celebrations!

https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/support-resistance-levels/4th-of-july-2024-holiday-schedule-for-cme-exchange-hours/

Daily Levels for July 3rd, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Short week ahead but packed of action.

Tomorrow, we have both JOLTS report as well as Powell speaking.

4th of July holiday is Thursday and markets will have modified schedule.

Please see below for:

1. Important reports for the week
2. First Notice and Last trading Day for July

Daily Levels for July 2nd, 2024

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.