Support & Resistance Levels

This Blog provides futures market outlook for different commodities and futures trading markets, mostly stock index futures, as well as support and resistance levels for Crude Oil futures, Gold futures, Euro currency and others. At times the daily trading blog will include educational information about different aspects of commodity and futures trading.

Daylight Savings on the Markets, Futures 101 Trading Contest, March Sugar, Mini SP Swing Trading System, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures the Week of November 3rd, 2025

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1265

  • The Week Ahead – Fall Back -Time Change!!

  • Futures 101 – Simulated Trading Contest – REAL Cash prizes!

  • Hot Market of the Week – March Sugar

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Mini SP Swing Trading System

  • Trading Levels for Next Week

  • Trading Reports for Next Week

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3940.57 3976.43 4018.17 4054.03 4095.77

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

47.37 47.79 48.39 48.81 49.41

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

59.36 60.12 60.75 61.51 62.14

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

116 28/32 1175/32 117 13/32 117 22/32 117 30/32

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

daylight savings

Fall Back!

Daylight Savings time is over for much of the country Saturday night. Back to standard until the second week in March.

Because of the ongoing government shutdown, numerous key US economic data releases are unavailable and will not be reported during the week of November 3, 2025. Agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the Census Bureau have suspended their operations. Even if the shutdown ends this weekend.

Unavailable government economic data includes:

  • Employment Situation (Jobs Report): The monthly report on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, which was due on November 7 for the month of October, is postponed.
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index: The release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for October will be delayed.
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The BEA will not release its second estimate for third-quarter GDP.
  • Trade Balance: The international trade report from the Census Bureau will be unavailable.
  • JOLTS Job Openings: The report on job openings and labor turnover is postponed.
  • Consumer Spending (Personal Income and Outlays): Data on consumer spending and personal income for October is delayed.
  • New Home Sales: This report on new, single-family home sales will not be released.

We do have reports of a different kind market participants will be watching:

Key non-governmental reports next week

  • U.S. Economic Data:
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final): This will provide a final reading on consumer confidence.
  • S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs: These reports will offer a snapshot of the manufacturing and services sectors’ performance for October.
  • ADP Payroll Numbers: This will provide an update on private-sector job growth.

As for earnings reports?  Next week we will see the numbers over 1500 stocks.

The on again off again nature of Tariff news has created golden opportunities for breakouts in some markets, rangebound trades in others.  The gold market exploded out of it’s range I have been writing about for months.  BTW, the US Dollar has been in a 4-cent range since April, conversely, the Euro has been in a 5-cent range since Memorial Day.

The longer the range trade the harder and faster the breakout becomes. Watch the U.S. Dollar as a breakout to the upside has been looming and ready to rock.

Expect continued volatility next week as the markets have not been able to receive Gov’t data due to the ongoing, politician-imposed shutdown. Don’t be fooled, this is about politics NOT Policy.

We’ll see you next week! Please enjoy a safe and memorable weekend.

 Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. Quiet
  • Tue. AMD, SHOP, UBER, AMGEN, PFIZER
  • Wed.  APPLOVIN, McDonalds, QCOM,
  • Thu. Conoco Phillips,
  • Fri.   Duke Energy

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)

  • Mon.  Daly 11 am,
  • Tues.  Quiet
  • Wed.   Quiet
  • Thu. Williams 10 am, Paulson 3:30 pm, Musalem 4:30 pm
  • Fri. Williams 2 am

Economic Data week:

  • Mon.  with the government shutdown, Government data will be suspended.

Trading Challenge! – Simulated Environment, REAL CASH Prizes!

Get ready to put your trading skills to the test! Cannon Trading is proud to be part of the upcoming CME Group Trading Challenge, running November 9–14, 2025, where participants can compete in a risk‑free, simulated futures environment. Each trader starts with a $25,000 virtual account and the chance to trade across a wide range of CME Group products—including equities, energy, metals, FX, interest rates, agriculture, and even cryptocurrency contracts.

Along the way, you’ll gain insights from industry veteran Bob Iaccino, access exclusive educational content, and compete for cash prizes of up to $2,500. Enrollment is free, but spots are limited—register today and see how your strategies stack up against fellow traders.

Join the Challenge for Free!

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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

March Sugar

March sugar is extending its break into new contract lows. At this point, the chart is taking aim at its low percentage fourth downside PriceCount objective to the 12.95 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

S&P 500 Outperformer

Markets Traded:   Mini SP 500

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Not Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $25,000

Developer Fee per contract: $195 Monthly Subscription

Get Started

Learn More & Detailed Results

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Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

System Trades Disclosure:

System Description

“System Description” is based upon information obtained from specific system marketing documents, system developers and/or system vendors themselves. While the information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy.

Actual Monthly Performance

The table and charts represent the monthly/quarterly/annual summation of actual trades based on system-specified contract(s) executed through Striker Securities, Inc. using the referenced trading system or system vendor for the stated time period. Commissions and monthly vendor fees are deducted from the tabulation. Results are based on 1 contract. If a client trades 2 contracts his gain or loss is twice as displayed (and so on). This table is presented for information purposes only and is not a solicitation for the referenced system or vendor.

The purpose of this information is for clients to compare their brokerage statements to what is displayed on Striker’s site. Striker as a matter of policy has no ownership with the referenced system or vendor or any other trading system or vendor.

Past trade history may not be indicative of future results. The results indicated here may or may not be typical of the performance of this system and, ALTHOUGH WE BELIEVE THIS INFORMATION TO BE ACCURATE, CANNON TRADING COMPANY MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. This is not the only trading system that Striker executes for its clients. Potential traders should carefully investigate, evaluate and compare trading systems before investing capital. Some or all trading systems may involve an inappropriate level of risk for potential traders.

It is the nature of commodity trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. In opening an account through CANNON TRADING COMPANY, Customer acknowledges and agrees that he/she will rely solely upon the information that CANNON TRADING COMPANYprovides to you. Thus, all prior third-party materials provided are superseded by the information and disclosures provided by CANNON TRADING COMPANY.

Important Information About this Trading System Analysis

Statistics, tables, charts and other information on trading system monthly performance are based on actual trading unless otherwise specified. Actual dollar and percentage gains/losses experienced by investors would depend on many factors not accounted for in these statistics, including, but not limited to, starting account balances, market behavior, developer fees, incidence of split fills and other variations in order execution, and the duration and extent of individual investor participation in the specified system.

While the information and statistics given are believed to be complete and accurate we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy as they results are key punched and subject to human error. Performance information is not the performance of a single account, but a compilation of several accounts over time, and is based on the physical trading ticket.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL/ INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND USED BY CURRENT CLIENTS TO AUDIT THEIR STATEMENTS TO STRIKER SITE. These results are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, any individual results that may be attained by the trading system in the future.

This trading system, like any other, may involve an inappropriate level of risk for prospective investors. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. Prior to purchasing or leasing a trading system from this or any other system vendor or investing in a trading system with a registered commodity trading representative, investors need to carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for them in light of their own specific financial condition.

In some cases, futures accounts are subject to substantial charges for commission, management, incentive or advisory fees. It may be necessary for accounts subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets. In addition, one should carefully study the accompanying prospectus, account forms, disclosure documents and/or risk disclosure statements required by the CFTC or NFA, which are provided directly by the system vendor and/or CTA’s.

The information contained in this report is provided with the objective of “standardizing” trading systems measurements, and it is intended for educational /informational purposes only. All information is offered with the understanding that an investor considering purchasing or leasing a system must carry out his/her own research and due diligence in deciding whether to purchase or lease any trading system noted within or without this report.

This report does not constitute a solicitation to purchase or invest in any trading system which may be mentioned herein. CANNON TRADING COMPANY AND STRIKER SECURITES, INC. MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY OTHER TRADING SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE TO ANY TRADING SYSTEM.

Futures Trading Disclaimer:

Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily “leveraged”. A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you.

You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position. If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit.

Would you like to get weekly updates on real-time, results of systems mentioned above?

Daily Levels for Nov. 3rd, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Trading Classification for Beginners, December Dollar Index, NEW Webinar Nov. 12th, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 31st, 2025

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Classify the Trading Day

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3886.53 3961.37 3999.93 4074.77 4113.33

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

46.47 47.59 48.21 49.33 49.95

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

59.07 59.66 60.22 60.81 61.37

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

116 28/32 117 8/32 117 22/32 118 2/32 118 16/32

Classify the trading day — quick guide for beginners

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Knowing the day type early helps you pick the right strategy: fade on choppy days, trend-follow on volatile days, and use spreads or small size on mixed/news days.

Simple pre-open checks (do these first)

  • Gap size: big gap → possible trend; small gap → likely chop.
  • Pre-market volume: heavy and one-sided → continuation bias; thin → false breaks.
  • News: major headlines → higher odds of volatility.
  • Correlated markets: bonds, oil, FX aligned with equities → directional day.

First 15 minutes checks

  • Open auction: clean one-sided auction + follow-through → trending; repeated rejections → choppy.
  • VWAP action: price runs away from VWAP → trend; price crossing VWAP repeatedly → mean reversion.
  • Open range vs ATR: open range large vs ATR → favor momentum; small → favor range trades.

Fast decision rules

  • If 3+ trending signals → use breakout/momentum play with trailing stop.
  • If 3+ non-trending signals → use small targets, fade to VWAP/open range.
  • If mixed or headline-driven → cut size, use same‑day options or trade spreads.

Beginner checklist (60 seconds)

  1. Gap: big / small.
  2. Pre-market volume: heavy / thin.
  3. News present: yes / no.
  4. First 15 min: follow-through / oscillation.
  5. If majority = trend → trend plan. If majority = chop → fade plan.

Start small, follow these checks every morning, and track which signals worked so you can refine thresholds over time.

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Dec. Dollar Index

The December dollar index completed its second upside PriceCount objective to the 99.60 level which is consistent with a challenge of the August reversal high. If the chart can break out from here with new sustained highs, the third count would project a possible run to the 101.395 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 30th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

 Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Second Interest Rate Cut, December Cotton, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Critical Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 30th, 2025

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What You Need to Know Before Trading Futures Tomorrow!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3861.93 3910.07 3978.13 4026.27 4094.33

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

46.01 46.69 47.60 48.28 49.19

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

59.02 59.67 60.34 60.99 61.66

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

117 7/32 117 20/32 118 13/32 118 26/32 119 19/32

interest

Interest Rates

It wasn’t even apparent during Chair Jerome Powell’s post-announcement news conference what triggered the price jolts in several of the futures markets this afternoon – including a ±50-point decline in the E-mini S&P 500 and a ±200-point decline in the E-mini Nasdaq in the span of eight minutes, or the ±$40 sell-off in gold in the span of two minutes.

Regardless of the cause, they served as the latest real-world examples of why it’s so important for traders of all types to assess the risks of their trades – before you enter into them – and have a plan to manage that risk. Day traders and position traders alike should be aware of important planned events – just like FOMC announcements and press conferences – and anticipate the potential risks to those events (these days it’s wise to include occasions when the U.S. president speaks, considering his ongoing involvement and influence in global trade relations).

These events certainly create opportunities for traders – outsize moves can also result in outsize favorable outcomes – but the most important aspect to trading – is always to manage risk.

General – Interest Rates:

Day 29 of the U.S Government shut-down, now the second-longest on record.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point today – its second consecutive rate cut, lowering the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, its lowest level in three years.

Stock Index Futures:

We’re amidst earning season for the third quarter. Moving into full swing, all eyes were on Microsoft, Google-parent Alphabet and Facebook-owner Meta today– all releasing their latest earnings results after the closing bell.

Tomorrow:

Apple and Amazon

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December Cotton

December cotton violated its contract low this month but for now was unable to sustain the break towards the low percentage drawn downside PriceCount objective near 57 cents not shown here for presentation purposes. The new chart has activated upside counts on the correction higher and is quickly approaching the first objective to the 66.27 area. To achieve any additional upside targets, we will first have to break out above the long-term downtrend

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 30th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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FOMC Tomorrow, December Live Cattle, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 29th, 2025

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FOMC Tomorrow

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3837.43 3906.47 3970.33 4039.37 4103.23

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

44.83 46.01 46.69 47.88 48.56

Crude Oil (CL)

— Nov (CLX5)

58.65 59.28 60.39 61.02 62.13

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

118 18/32 118 27/32 119 1/32 119 10/32 119 16/32
fomc
 

October 29th, Tomorrow, is the 96th anniversary (seems like the term “anniversary” should be celebratory rather than marking a day of dread for the nation) Black Tuesday: when the US Stock Market crashes, ending the Great Bull Market of the 1920s and eventually contributing to the Great Depression. While we don’t expect this current Great Bull Market will crash tomorrow, yet anytime soon, it is not a novel idea to manage risk, it’s imperative.

Tomorrow is also the release of the expected 2nd to last in a series of Fed Rate cuts while Chairman Jerome Powell will read a statement and will avail himself to the Press Corps. Expectations are for .25 reduction to the 3.75-4.00 range. Although surprises do occur, the only surprise tomorrow would be in the language used to massage future rate cuts, rather than the cut itself. Big Earnings after the close tomorrow as Microsoft, Google and Meta.

Previously in this blog I have included some option strategies, for both high volatility markets and low volatility markets. Measures of volatility are important to understand more holistically your risk management requirements when implementing your option strategy. I am including some basic definitions of the “Greeks” used to measure the impact of volatility on Option Premiums. In trading futures options, they help traders assess risk and manage their portfolios. Below are the definitions of the primary Greeks, tailored to futures options:

·        Delta: Measures the rate of change in an option’s price for a $1 change in the underlying futures contract’s price. It ranges from 0 to 1 for calls and -1 to 0 for puts. For example, a delta of 0.5 means the option’s price moves $0.50 for every $1 move in the futures price. Delta also approximates the probability the option will expire in-the-money.

·        Gamma: Measures the rate of change in delta for a $1 change in the underlying futures price. It reflects the acceleration of the option’s price movement. High gamma indicates delta is highly sensitive to price changes, which is common for at-the-money options near expiration.

·        Theta: Measures the rate of change in an option’s price due to the passage of time, often called time decay. It’s typically negative, as options lose value as expiration approaches. For example, a theta of -0.05 means the option loses $0.05 per day, all else equal.

·        Vega: Measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to a 1% change in the implied volatility of the underlying futures contract. For example, a Vega of 0.10 means the option’s price increases by $0.10 if implied volatility rises by 1%. Vega is higher for longer-dated options.

·        Rho: Measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to a 1% change in interest rates. For futures options, Rho is often less significant due to typically short maturities and stable interest rates, but it still indicates how much the option price changes with shifts in the risk-free rate.

These Greeks are critical for understanding how factors like price movements, time, volatility, and interest rates impact futures options pricing and risk. If you’d like, I can dive deeper into any specific Greek or provide examples of their application in trading strategies.

 Instant Viewing/Download: Commitment of Traders Report – How to Use?

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December Live Cattle

The rally in December live cattle lost its momentum this month and activated downside PriceCount objectives on the correction lower. The break accelerated to its third count to the 224.50 area where it appears we may try to stabilize for a moment, at least. At this point, IF the chart can sustain further weakness, the low percentage fourth count would project a possible move to the 200.00 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 29th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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January Beans, Why Many Traders Lose Money Trading Futures (WITH CAN’T MISS VIDEO!!!!), Levels, Reports; Your 4 Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 28th, 2025

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Where is the Edge?

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 3900.53 3953.07 4038.43 4090.97 4176.33
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 44.59 45.67 47.13 48.21 49.67
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 59.92 60.68 61.42 62.18 62.92
 Dec. Bonds (ZB) 117 15/32 118 6/32 118 17/32 119 8/32 119 19/32

beans

Why do Many Traders Lose Money Trading Futures? See presentation below!

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January Soybeans

January beans gapped higher and the chart is accelerating to its second upside PriceCount objective to the $10.92 area. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. IF you can sustain further strength, the third count would project a possible run to the $11.30 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 28th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Rate Cut, Nov. Feeder Cattle, Trading Psychology, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Must-Knows for Trading Futures the week of October 27th, 2025

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Cannon Futures Weekly Newsletter

In Today’s Issue #1263

  • The Week Ahead – FOMC Week!

  • Futures 101 – Trading Psychology Course

  • Hot Market of the Week – Nov. Feeder Cattle

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – MICRO NQ Swing Trading System

  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 4007.90 4063.40 4111.20 4166.70 4214.50
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 46.79 47.58 48.17 48.96 49.55
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 60.38 60.93 61.76 62.31 63.14
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46629 47017 47263 47651 47897

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

rate

 

Traders, much like the Federal Reserve Board, are dependent on data that, during a government shutdown is barely existent.  We have a FOMC rate decision next week and immediately following, a Chair Jerome Powell presser. According to the CME Fed watch tool, we have a 99% chance of another .25-point reduction in the bank lending rate to a 3.75-4.00 range.

Actually, the tool reflects significant confidence of 2, count them, .25 rate reductions remaining this year (the next and final Fed Rate decision meeting is scheduled for December 10th) even after Friday’s CPI release of .03 percent increase in the inflation rate probabilities have remained consistent. The December move would put the Fed Funds lending rate into the 3.50-3.75 range by year end.

As for earnings reports?  Next week we will see the numbers for 5, Trillion dollar + market cap stocks; MSFT, GOOG, META, Wednesday and AAPL, AMZN on Thursday post close.

The on again off again nature of Tariff news has created golden opportunities for breakouts in some markets, rangebound trades in others.  The gold market exploded out of it’s range I have been writing about for months.  BTW, the US Dollar has been in a 4-cent range since April, conversely, the Euro has been in a 5-cent range since Memorial Day. The longer the range trade the harder and faster the breakout becomes.

Expect continued volatility next week as the markets have not been able to receive Gov’t data due to the ongoing, politician-imposed shutdown. Don’t be fooled, this is about politics NOT Policy. Additionally, markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts/ cessation, think Russia/Ukraine, sanctioning Russian oil company’s and applying pressure to country’s currently buying oil from them.  Trade deals or no trade deals, China, Trump to meet with Xi Jinping in Korea, India, Canada (in trouble w/ the Reagan Foundation for cutting and pasting incorrectly, a 1987 Reagan Speech on Tariffs) and also, remember that Mexico’s extension will end October 29.

We’ll see you next week! Please enjoy a safe and memorable weekend.

 Earnings Next Week:

·        Mon. Quiet

·        Tue. Visa, UnitedHealth Group,

·        Wed.  MSFT, GOOG, META

·        Thu. AMZN, AAPL, Ely Lilly,

·        Fri.   Exxon Mobile, Chevron

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)

·        Mon. Quiet

·        Tues.  Quiet

·        Wed.     FOMC 1:30 Chair Powell Presser

·        Thu. Quiet

·        Fri. Logan 8:30 am, Bostic 11:00 am, Hammack 11:00 am

Economic Data week:

·        Mon.  with the government shutdown, data will be suspended. Check the list Below.

Get An Edge With the Trading Psychology Course

“You must understand that there is more than one path to the top of the mountain.”- Miyamoto Musashi, A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy

Many experienced traders say that the stiffest challenge you’ll face in becoming a futures trader is conquering your own psyche. Why? Because losing is part of trading, and people hate to lose.

In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn:

·     How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back

·     Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience

·     The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses

·     Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality

·     Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage

·     Creating effective trading technique strategies

·     Qualities of Successful Traders

START FREE COURSE NOW

Trading Psychology 251024

Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

November Feeder Cattle

cattle

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

Abacus Upside ES Trading System

Markets Traded:   MICRO NQ

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Caracal is a trend trade strategy that takes long trades only

Suggested Capital: $8,000

Developer Fee per contract: $19 Monthly Subscription

Get Started

Learn More & Detailed Results

tradingsystem 251024

Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

System Trades Disclosure:

System Description

“System Description” is based upon information obtained from specific system marketing documents, system developers and/or system vendors themselves. While the information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy.

Actual Monthly Performance

The table and charts represent the monthly/quarterly/annual summation of actual trades based on system-specified contract(s) executed through Striker Securities, Inc. using the referenced trading system or system vendor for the stated time period. Commissions and monthly vendor fees are deducted from the tabulation. Results are based on 1 contract. If a client trades 2 contracts his gain or loss is twice as displayed (and so on). This table is presented for information purposes only and is not a solicitation for the referenced system or vendor. The purpose of this information is for clients to compare their brokerage statements to what is displayed on Striker’s site. Striker as a matter of policy has no ownership with the referenced system or vendor or any other trading system or vendor. Past trade history may not be indicative of future results. The results indicated here may or may not be typical of the performance of this system and, ALTHOUGH WE BELIEVE THIS INFORMATION TO BE ACCURATE, CANNON TRADING COMPANY MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. This is not the only trading system that Striker executes for its clients. Potential traders should carefully investigate, evaluate and compare trading systems before investing capital. Some or all trading systems may involve an inappropriate level of risk for potential traders. It is the nature of commodity trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. In opening an account through CANNON TRADING COMPANY, Customer acknowledges and agrees that he/she will rely solely upon the information that CANNON TRADING COMPANYprovides to you. Thus, all prior third-party materials provided are superseded by the information and disclosures provided by CANNON TRADING COMPANY.

Important Information About this Trading System Analysis

Statistics, tables, charts and other information on trading system monthly performance are based on actual trading unless otherwise specified. Actual dollar and percentage gains/losses experienced by investors would depend on many factors not accounted for in these statistics, including, but not limited to, starting account balances, market behavior, developer fees, incidence of split fills and other variations in order execution, and the duration and extent of individual investor participation in the specified system.

While the information and statistics given are believed to be complete and accurate we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy as they results are key punched and subject to human error. Performance information is not the performance of a single account, but a compilation of several accounts over time, and is based on the physical trading ticket. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL/ INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND USED BY CURRENT CLIENTS TO AUDIT THEIR STATEMENTS TO STRIKER SITE. These results are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, any individual results that may be attained by the trading system in the future.

This trading system, like any other, may involve an inappropriate level of risk for prospective investors. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. Prior to purchasing or leasing a trading system from this or any other system vendor or investing in a trading system with a registered commodity trading representative, investors need to carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for them in light of their own specific financial condition. In some cases, futures accounts are subject to substantial charges for commission, management, incentive or advisory fees.

It may be necessary for accounts subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets. In addition, one should carefully study the accompanying prospectus, account forms, disclosure documents and/or risk disclosure statements required by the CFTC or NFA, which are provided directly by the system vendor and/or CTA’s.

The information contained in this report is provided with the objective of “standardizing” trading systems measurements, and it is intended for educational /informational purposes only. All information is offered with the understanding that an investor considering purchasing or leasing a system must carry out his/her own research and due diligence in deciding whether to purchase or lease any trading system noted within or without this report.

This report does not constitute a solicitation to purchase or invest in any trading system which may be mentioned herein. CANNON TRADING COMPANY AND STRIKER SECURITES, INC. MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY OTHER TRADING SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE TO ANY TRADING SYSTEM.

Futures Trading Disclaimer:

Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily “leveraged”. A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you. You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position. If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit.

Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

System Trades Disclosure:

System Description

“System Description” is based upon information obtained from specific system marketing documents, system developers and/or system vendors themselves. While the information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy.

Actual Monthly Performance

The table and charts represent the monthly/quarterly/annual summation of actual trades based on system-specified contract(s) executed through Striker Securities, Inc. using the referenced trading system or system vendor for the stated time period. Commissions and monthly vendor fees are deducted from the tabulation. Results are based on 1 contract. If a client trades 2 contracts his gain or loss is twice as displayed (and so on). This table is presented for information purposes only and is not a solicitation for the referenced system or vendor. The purpose of this information is for clients to compare their brokerage statements to what is displayed on Striker’s site.

Striker as a matter of policy has no ownership with the referenced system or vendor or any other trading system or vendor. Past trade history may not be indicative of future results. The results indicated here may or may not be typical of the performance of this system and, ALTHOUGH WE BELIEVE THIS INFORMATION TO BE ACCURATE, CANNON TRADING COMPANY MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE.

This is not the only trading system that Striker executes for its clients. Potential traders should carefully investigate, evaluate and compare trading systems before investing capital. Some or all trading systems may involve an inappropriate level of risk for potential traders. It is the nature of commodity trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. In opening an account through CANNON TRADING COMPANY, Customer acknowledges and agrees that he/she will rely solely upon the information that CANNON TRADING COMPANYprovides to you. Thus, all prior third-party materials provided are superseded by the information and disclosures provided by CANNON TRADING COMPANY.

Important Information About this Trading System Analysis

Statistics, tables, charts and other information on trading system monthly performance are based on actual trading unless otherwise specified. Actual dollar and percentage gains/losses experienced by investors would depend on many factors not accounted for in these statistics, including, but not limited to, starting account balances, market behavior, developer fees, incidence of split fills and other variations in order execution, and the duration and extent of individual investor participation in the specified system.

While the information and statistics given are believed to be complete and accurate we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy as they results are key punched and subject to human error. Performance information is not the performance of a single account, but a compilation of several accounts over time, and is based on the physical trading ticket. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL/ INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND USED BY CURRENT CLIENTS TO AUDIT THEIR STATEMENTS TO STRIKER SITE. These results are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, any individual results that may be attained by the trading system in the future.

This trading system, like any other, may involve an inappropriate level of risk for prospective investors. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. Prior to purchasing or leasing a trading system from this or any other system vendor or investing in a trading system with a registered commodity trading representative, investors need to carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for them in light of their own specific financial condition.

In some cases, futures accounts are subject to substantial charges for commission, management, incentive or advisory fees. It may be necessary for accounts subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets. In addition, one should carefully study the accompanying prospectus, account forms, disclosure documents and/or risk disclosure statements required by the CFTC or NFA, which are provided directly by the system vendor and/or CTA’s.

The information contained in this report is provided with the objective of “standardizing” trading systems measurements, and it is intended for educational /informational purposes only. All information is offered with the understanding that an investor considering purchasing or leasing a system must carry out his/her own research and due diligence in deciding whether to purchase or lease any trading system noted within or without this report.

This report does not constitute a solicitation to purchase or invest in any trading system which may be mentioned herein. CANNON TRADING COMPANY AND STRIKER SECURITES, INC. MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY OTHER TRADING SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE TO ANY TRADING SYSTEM.

Futures Trading Disclaimer:

Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily “leveraged”. A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you.

You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position. If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit.

Would you like to get weekly updates on real-time, results of systems mentioned above?

Daily Levels for Oct 27th, 2025

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Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?

Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Algorithmic Precision Trading, December Soymeal, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 24th, 2025

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Enhance Your Edge with Algorithmic Precision

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 4035.77 4083.83 4127.67 4175.73 4219.57
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 46.88 47.71 48.47 49.30 50.05
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 58.60 60.12 61.16 62.68 63.72
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46437 46669 46831 47063 47225

Enhance Your Edge with Algorithmic Precision

algorithmic

Take the guesswork out of your trading decisions…

Cannon Trading’s advanced analytics platform integrates algorithmic models with color-coded indicators to deliver real-time, data-driven insights directly to your screen.

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From VWAP deviations and volatility bands to momentum oscillators and trend confirmation signals, every feature is designed to help you:

✅ Identify possible high-probability setups

✅ Manage risk with precision

✅ Streamline complex analysis into clear, actionable signals

Whether you’re scalping intraday moves or executing swing strategies, our system gives you the clarity and support some professional traders rely on.

Experience the power of professional-grade analytics — start your FREE trial today.

Start My Free Trial

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.  

The recommendations contained in this blog are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.  

Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

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December Soymeal

December meal satisfied its first upside PriceCount objective off of the October low. It would be normal for the chart to react from this level in the form of a near term consolidation or corrective trade. From here, if we can extend the rally with sustained strength, the second count would project a possible run to the $298 area.

And that’s a December Soymeal projection for you!

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 24th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Futures FYI: Metals, Stock Index Futures, Energies, Dec-March Corn Spread, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 23rd, 2025

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What You Need to Know Before Trading Futures Tomorrow!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

futures

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 3951.53 4035.67 4105.33 4189.47 4259.43
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 46.09 47.19 47.92 49.02 49.75
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 56.37 57.88 58.86 60.37 61.35
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46315 46553 46877 47115 47439

General:

Day 22 of the U.S Government shut-down, now the second-longest on record. Today it overtook the 21-day shutdown of 1995-96. Without a fix, many federal employees will not be getting paid this Friday, the first full paycheck they’ll miss as a result of the shutdown.

Stock Index Futures:

We’re amidst earning season for the third quarter. Moving into full swing, all eyes were on IBM, AT&T and in particular Tesla – all releasing their latest earnings results after the closing bell.

Tomorrow: Intel

Metals:

It’s another installment of the broken record precious metals report – with a twist.

On Monday, Dec. gold futures rose to a new all-time intraday high of $4,398.00/ounce and closed up nearly $150/ounce above Friday’s close. As this blog is being composed, the contract is trading ±$300/ounce lower ±$4,090/ounce – a ±$30,000 per contract move. This includes yesterday’s free-fall of over $300/ounce marking its largest single-day sell-off in 13 years.

Despite the dip, gold is still up over 50% year-to-date. HSBC predicts that the precious metal will hit $5,000 next year.

Energies:

After remaining on their lows last week – with a new multi-month intraday low of $55.96/barrel in the December contract on Monday, futures rose after President Trump again said India would reduce its purchases of Russian oil, while today’s EIA’s report showed a one-million-barrel drop in U.S. crude oil inventories following three weekly builds. Today, Dec. crude oil rose over $2.00/barrel to an intraday high of $59.67/barrel.

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Dec – March Corn Spread

The Dec-March corn spread has resumed its rally into a new high. At this point, the chart appears to be taking aim at its third upside PriceCount objective to the -12 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 23rd, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

f21cc7d5 3b7b 468a a2d0 59ee83101b6a

Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Gov’t Shutdown Continues, Impact on Traders’ Reports, Blackout & Volatility, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 22nd, 2025

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Govt. Shut Down & Commitment of Traders Reports

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 3903 4013.60 4203.60 4314.20 4504.20
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 44.35 46.08 48.85 50.57 53.34
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 55.56 56.49 57.29 58.22 59.02
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46578 46865 47100 47387 47622

shutdown

Current 2025 Government Shutdown:

As of October 21, 2025, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown (which began October 1) has suspended COT reports since the last release covering data up to September 23.

Weekly Released Commitment of Traders

Weekly released Commitment of Traders reports from the CFTC provide transparency into the positioning of various trader groups (such as speculators, hedgers, and commercial participants) in futures and options markets.

Risk of Delay/Absence

When these reports are delayed or absent—typically due to events like government shutdowns or external disruptions—it creates a data vacuum that can amplify uncertainty among traders.

Threat of Insight Void

This lack of insight into market sentiment and positioning often leads to increased speculative activity, herding behavior, and potential overreactions, ultimately contributing to higher volatility in futures markets.

Blackout

This blackout has left commodity futures traders “flying blind,” relying on alternative indicators like open interest changes, ETF flows, and futures curve shapes to infer speculative trends. The absence amplifies risks of speculative crowding—where positions build excessively without oversight—potentially leading to sharper price reversals when reports resume.

Volatility

Overall market volatility has shown mixed effects: implied volatility has ticked up slightly due to uncertainty, but in some areas like bonds, it has actually decreased from a lack of data. Agricultural futures have been hit harder, with disruptions to USDA data releases causing supply chain delays and emotional, rumor-driven trading that heightens volatility

 Instant Viewing/Download: Commitment of Traders Report – How to Use?

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December Oats

December oats met the low percentage fourth downside PriceCount objective to the 2.85 area which suggests we may have come far enough to satisfy this phase of the bear move. At this point, if the chart can extend the recovery with two closes above the 3.015 October high, we would activate upside counts.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 22nd, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Overnight Edge, December Mini Dow, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 21st, 2025

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Where is the Edge?

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At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 4173.40 4285.40 4341.70 4453.70 4510.00
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 49.49 50.65 51.24 52.40 52.99
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 55.32 56.16 56.79 57.63 58.26
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46087 46503 46733 47149 47379

Over the past few months, and especially in recent weeks, we’ve seen unusually large overnight moves. Some moves appear random, others reverse quickly, and some are driven by headlines such as tariff news. These dynamics have increased gap risk, reduced overnight liquidity, and produced frequent open-time dislocations.

Common question

Where is the edge?

Short answer

  • Trade the first 30 minutes and focus on short-term gap-fill or rejection setups.
  • Use same-day options when you expect a large directional move to limit tail risk and avoid being stopped out only to see the market move in your favor.
  • Trade spreads when relative strength diverges across instruments (for example, gold vs silver or mini-Dow vs ES).

Extended answer

I want to focus on the practical elements of trading like pre-market context, move behavior, market news correlation, liquidity, options limits, and whether to use mean reversion or momentum. I’ll also want to highlight key parts like risk management, stop placement, and position sizing. Planning should be direct with a simple checklist and no more than six sections. I should also consider using a relevant citation about tariff-related movements, but just one, and make sure it’s only placed where necessary. No framing or extra explanations.

Futures day-trading edge

You find edge by matching a repeatable hypothesis to the current market regime, then executing it with strict risk and execution rules.

Regime diagnosis (what the market is doing now)

  • Volatility regime: large overnight gaps and erratic premarket prints mean the market is in a news-driven, headline-sensitive volatility regime.
  • Catalyst profile: moves are often tied to macro headlines and tariff noise; those headlines create directional gaps that either persist into the session or sharply reverse at the open.
  • Liquidity profile: overnight liquidity is thin and fragmented, increasing slippage and fake outs at the open.

Reliable, tradeable edges you can use

  • Pre-open directional bias with size filter. Trade opens when overnight gap exceeds a threshold (e.g., 0.5% or X ticks) and pre-market order flow confirms (sustained prints, not one-off sweep).
  • Use reduced size and wider stops for gaps caused by headline noise.
  • Fade headline gap into first 30 minutes when structure is weakIf gap lacks follow-through volume and price fails to make a clean microstructure breakout, favor mean reversion to the first-tail or VWAP.
  • Trend-follow breakouts in high conviction regimeWhen overnight move is accompanied by aligned macro flow (rates, FX, commodities) and volume ramps into the open, follow momentum with a continuation plan.
  • Volatility arbitrage playsUse options or calendar spreads where available to sell realized volatility after spikes and buy protection around known headline windows.
  • Session-timing edgeTrade smaller and tighter in the first 15–30 minutes after the open; increase size after the market establishes structure (first clean high/low and confirmation).
  • Microstructure edge: limit vs market tacticsUse passive limit entries near structural levels and aggressive exits into liquidity. Avoid market entries into thin pre-open auction prints.

Concrete execution rules (checklist)

  • Pre-market checklist: identify gap size, top 3 headlines, correlated markets (bonds, FX, oil), and pre-open volume trend.
  • Entry rules: require either structural confirmation (higher high / lower low) or a mean-reversion setup with defined edge-to-risk ratio ≥ 2:1.
  • Sizing: reduce notional by 25–50% on headline-driven nights; increase only after two clean consecutive edges are realized.
  • Stops and targets: place stop where edge invalidates (clearly definable price level); scale out at predefined targets; never trade without a stop.
  • Slippage buffer: add tick buffer to stops and profit targets during thin liquidity opens.

How to test and keep the edge

  • Backtest regime-specific rules: label historical sessions by overnight gap size and headline events, test mean-reversion vs momentum rules separately.
  • Forward-test with small capital: run a two-week rolling simulator and log slippage, win rate, and expectancy.
  • Adaptive rules: codify a volatility threshold that switches you between momentum and fade strategies automatically.

Brief trade plan template

  • Hypothesis: (e.g., “Overnight tariff headline caused a 0.7% gap that lacks confirmatory volume; first 20 minutes will mean-revert to VWAP.”)
  • Entry: limit at VWAP + X ticks or on 1-minute reversal candle.
  • Stop: invalidation beyond the overnight high/low + slippage buffer.
  • Target: partial at VWAP, final at first structure level.
  • Size: 50% normal when gap driver = headline; full size only when macro alignment confirmed.

Be systematic: diagnose regime, pick the strategy that historically wins in that regime, enforce execution and risk rules, and iterate from measured data.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.  

The recommendations contained in this blog are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.  

Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

December Mini DOW

The December mini DJIA chart satisfied its second upside PriceCount objective earlier this month and corrected lower. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a possible run to the 52041 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 21st, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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