Energy Futures


Weekly Newsletter #1037 Day Trading Mind Traps, Crude Oil Outlook/Chart and Resistance Levels for the Week Ahead 2.01.2021

January 29th, 2021 Filed under Crude Oil, Weekly Newsletter | Comment (0)

Cannon Futures Weekly Newsletter Issue # 1037

Dear Traders,

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Trading 102: Day Trading Mind Traps 
“One way our brain helps keep us safe is to protect us from an awareness of our weaknesses. The brain believes that it is better to be falsely confident than recognize the real risks. This protective mechanism tends to work against us in trading.” Kenneth Reid, Ph.D
MINDING THE MIND
The mind can play tricks on us. Intuitive Trading is an attempt to mind read the market, which makes us susceptible to whipsaws. Hindsight Bias causes traders to underestimate the difficulty of trading, while Competency Bias causes us to over-estimate our abilities. These are mental banana peels that set us up for a fall.
INTUITIVE TRADING
Intuitive trading is a natural response to excessive randomness and non-linearity in the market. But making informed guesses is not the same as formulating a rule-based pattern-recognition system that gives a trader a true edge. Without a rule-based plan, intuitive traders expend a great deal of energy mindreading the market, which will not improve your odds of success. In fact, professional traders make a good living exploiting the emotionally-driven behavior of intuitive amateurs.
The Bull / Bear Camps for crude oil
by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
For the bulls, when you’re hanging on to news from China that they’ve seen meaningful declines in crude oil stockpiles at key ports and increased refinery run rates playing catch-up to demand, that’s not a strong hand.
The new Biden Administration’s move to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline will likely elicit a muted response as its demise had been generally expected. Covid-related news continues to influence market sentiment, so the new South African variant and its impact on the global health crisis is ammunition for the bear camp. As well, last week’s Baker Hughes US oil rig count rose from 236 up to 289 rigs, within striking distance of the highest U.S. count since early May. It’s rational to view any intra-day price spikes with skepticism. Still, the bulls are not without their own home-court ammunition. Since the Nov./Dec. holidays, U.S. demand has improved and supplies have tightened per this week’s EIA report of a 9.9 million barrel inventory decline.
Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart
Good Trading

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

 

Futures Trading Levels

2-01-2021

Futures Support & Resistance Levels 2.01.2021

 

Weekly Levels

Weekly Futures Support & Resistance Levels 2.01.2021 - 2.05.2021

Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

https://mrci.com

Date Reports/Expiration Notice Dates

MRCI Weekly Reports 1.29.2021 - 2.05.2021

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in tradin


Weekly Newsletter #1036 Day Trading Commodities w/ Crude Oil Futures, Soybean Futures Chart and Resistance Levels 1.25.2021

January 22nd, 2021 Filed under Crude Oil, Future Trading News, Weekly Newsletter | Comment (0)

Cannon Futures Weekly Newsletter Issue # 1036

Dear Traders,

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Trading 202: Day Trading Commodities with Crude Oil Futures
Crude Oil Futures Volatility Offers A “Different Market Personality” Than Stock Index Futures. Here Is Some Of The Things You Need To Know About Day Trading Crude Oil Futures:
By: Ilan Levy-Mayer, Cannon Trading Commodities Broker & VP
Crude Oil is one of MY favorite futures market for day trading. Before I dive in and share with you how the volatility in crude oil fits my risk tolerance for day trading and provide a couple of chart examples, we should review some of the specifications of Crude Oil Futures.
Crude Oil Futures have monthly expiration. So each month we trade a different contract month, so one needs to know when is the first notice day and last trading day for crude oil futures in order to always make sure we are trading the proper month with the most liquidity and avoid any chance of getting into delivery situation.
Next is the contract size. Crude Oil futures are based on 1000 barrels. To be honest from a day trading perspective all I care is that each tick or 1 cent fluctuation is $10 against me or in my favor per contract. That means that a move from 92.94 to 92.74 = $200.
Another factor is trading hours. At the time I am sharing my thoughts with you, April 8th 2013, crude oil futures trade on the CME Globex platform and trade from 5 PM CDT until the next day at 4 PM CDT. That is 23 of straight trading hours. I definitely don’t recommend day trading this market 23 hours…but it is good to know the trading hours.
Volume in crude oil futures is pretty good to trade in my opinion. Averaging about 300,000 contracts per day.
One last pointer to touch on is the API (American Petroleum Institute) report that normally comes out Wednesday at 9:30 CDT (on short weeks, holidays etc. , this report will be pushed to Thursday at 10 AM CDT). I tell my clients that this report is way too volatile and I like to be out 5 minutes before and not resume trading 5 minutes until after the report comes out. This report by itself deserves a writing but on short, the report provides information on how our stock pile is doing ( = supply/demand) and the market will move based on the numbers versus what was expected. Again as a day trader, your main job is to know about this report, when it comes out and in my opinion stay out of the market during this time..
March soybeans fell sharply today, losing ±$0.60 cents (-4.4%) down to $13.09 ¾ / bushel erasing all of its gains for the month of January. March corn declined as well, by $0.24 / bushel (-4.6%) to close at $5.00 ¼ / bushel. More welcome rain was forecast for Argentina today boosting forecasts of the last two days. That opened the door for improving crop conditions into early February. Forecasts for even more rain next week in Argentina and Brazil contributed to the sell-off’s momentum. Brazil’s 1-2-week forecast called for widespread rains over most growing regions. All this points to better-than-expected crop conditions across those two important growing areas into early February.
Would you like to try out the “turning points Algo” you see on the chart in the form of blue circle and red circles?
Soybean Futures Continuation Chart
Good Trading

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

 

Futures Trading Levels

1-25-2021

Futures Support & Resistance Levels 1.25.2021

 

Weekly Levels

Weekly Futures Support & Resistance Levels 1.25 - 1.29.2021

Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

https://mrci.com

Date Reports/Expiration Notice Dates

MRCI Reports 1.25-1.29.2021

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in tradin


Crude Oil Bullish? & Support and Resistance Levels 12.17.2020

December 16th, 2020 Filed under Future Trading News | Comment (0)

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Dear Traders,

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We are entering the last 2 weeks of 2020.
The last two weeks of December can at times be very choppy as many larger traders/ institutions take the time off. However, this year with COVID, things might be different…..
In between a look at Crude Oil Futures daily chart. Crude has been showing some bullish signs past couple of weeks, possible levels on the chart below.

Good Trading

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

 

Futures Trading Levels

12-17-2020

Economic Reports, source: 

 www.BetterTrader.co

 

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.


Energy Futures Outlook 5/15/2018

May 14th, 2018 Filed under Energy Futures, Future Trading News | Comment (0)

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Dear Traders,
Oil Market Dynamics in Play: What to Watch in Coming Weeks
By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group
Oil: Will Mideast Risk Premium Rise Before Driving Season?
Highlights
  • U.S. shale oil production can respond faster to price changes
  • Ramp-up in U.S. production could be tempered by drilling challenges
  • U.S. oil exports have changed the dynamics of Brent-WTI price spread
 Unleaded Gasoline Daily Chart for your review below:
Unleaded Gasoline Daily Chart 

If you like to set up a time and chat with a licensed series 3 broker, pleasecontact us.

Read the rest of this entry »


Volatility returns to Energy and Metal Futures; Economic Reports and Levels 9.03.2014

September 2nd, 2014 Filed under Future Trading News | Comment (0)

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

It seems that both volume and volatility came back from the long weekend…

BIG moves in energy and metals sector along with improved range and volume in stock indices.

I suspect this will continue the rest of this week with more reports ahead including Friday’s monthly employment levels.

Something my colleague mentioned to me today reminded me how “unnatural” trading can be for the human mind….As we are executing some trading systems on behalf of clients here at Cannon, one of the trading systems is a breakout system which caught the big sell off today in Crude, heating oil and gold ….( this is by no means to say that this system does this every day or anything of the sort but simply to provide an example of the following….): As the markets were moving in the direction the system wanted , my colleague mentioned, ” wish we could take profits now…” and it reminded me of one of the basic mistakes we all do. Taking profits too early and letting losses ride too long…The system which we execute under a letter of direction, ended up making quite a bit more by riding the trend rather than “taking profits now”  and while this is not to imply that this happens all the time, my opinion is that many traders , day traders and long term traders take out profits too quickly and stay in losers too long. The reason? Our human mind wants to see the profits as “ours”, i.e closed profits so we can know for sure this was a win….vise versa on the losing side…we refuse to close losses  because as long as the trade is open we have a chance for it to reverse, once we close it, it is a done deal, it is a closed losing trade….

So the point of the story is, that many times while trading we need to fight the urge to do what feels comfortable and rather do what we researched and believed produce results over time (assuming you do have a method/concept you researched and believed in…..)

Wishing you a great trading month ahead!

 

 

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