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May 1st, 2020 Newsletter

A look at silver futures trading between weekly ranges along with a good article on a very important mental aspect of day trading.

May 1st, 2020 - Issue #1004

In This Issue

1. Futures 101: Day Trading Mind Traps
2. Hot Market Report: Silver Futures Between Major Weekly Levels
3. Economic Calendar

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1.   Day Trading Mind Traps 

"One way our brain helps keep us safe is to protect us from an awareness of our weaknesses. The brain believes that it is better to be falsely confident than recognize the real risks. This protective mechanism tends to work against us in trading." Kenneth Reid, Ph.D


MINDING THE MIND


The mind can play tricks on us. Intuitive Trading is an attempt to mind read the market, which makes us susceptible to whipsaws. Hindsight Bias causes traders to underestimate the difficulty of trading, while Competency Bias causes us to over-estimate our abilities. These are mental banana peels that set us up for a fall.


INTUITIVE TRADING


Intuitive trading is a natural response to excessive randomness and non-linearity in the market. But making informed guesses is not the same as formulating a rule-based pattern-recognition system that gives a trader a true edge. Without a rule-based plan, intuitive traders expend a great deal of energy mindreading the market, which will not improve your odds of success. In fact, professional traders make a good living exploiting the emotionally-driven behavior of intuitive amateurs.


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DayTrading Mind Traps

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2. Hot Market Report: Silver Futures Between Major Weekly Levels

By Joe Easton, Senior Broker

Click on image below to enlarge

SI futures;

This week’s highlighted Market is Silver. Silver belongs to the "metals family": Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium. All traded on the COMEX exchange.
Silver front month “N” for July is at press time trading $14.96 last price. The pit close for Friday and this week is $14.935. The previous resistance of $14.975 from March 26th(yellow arrow) was broken higher on April 6th. Since this time we have traded sideways for almost a month with a recent high of $16.50 on April 14th. Based on the chart pictured this is the first day we have closed below $14.975 since prior to April 6th. This close could lead us to trade back into the previous range from the $11.68 low March 18. Another important support is the recent low close on April 1st of $14.10. Stay tuned for next week to see where we open Monday morning.
Daily chart of silver Futures for your review from this morning ( May 1st, 2020). Silver is "usually" volatile enough and liquid enough to be suitable for both day trading and swing trading. Access a free trial to our FREE platform for 28 days with real-time data.
SILVER Futures Specs
Hours: 05:00 PM previous day to 4:00 PM Central Time
Margins: $9900 initial, $9000 Maint. ( as of the date of this newsletter)
Point Value: full point = $5000 ( Example: 16.80 to 17.80 ). Min fluctuation is 0.05 = $25 ( Example: 16.800 to 16.805) Settlement: Physical Delivery
Months: January, March, May, July, September,December. F,H,K,N,U,Z
Weekly Options:YES
Keep in mind there is a mini silver, 1000 OZ which is 1/5 the size of the main contract. Volume on the mini silver is very light

Some of the basic fundamentals to keep in mind when you are considering trading the Silver for this matter:
1. Research supply side in major silver producing countries like Mexico, China, and Peru.
2. Follow both the industrial demand and investment demand for silver
3. Focus in macroeconomics not microeconomics
4. Correlation to gold
5. Correlation to US Dollar prices
6. Inflationary prospects
7. Geopolitical Stability
8. U.S. Fiscal and Monetary Stability

Our brokers here at Cannon will be happy to chat about the silver market, other metals, other futures, options, futures spreads and much more! Feel free to contact us at any time.

3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

Date Reports Expiration & Notice Dates
05/01
Fri
9:00 AM CDT - Construction Spending(Mar)
9:00 AM CDT - ISM Manufacturing Index(Apr)
1:00 PM CDT - Auto & Truck Sales(Apr)
2:00 PM CDT - Cotton System
2:00 PM CDT - Fats & Oils
2:00 PM CDT - Grain Crushings
FN: May Orange Juice(ICE)
May Sugar-11(ICE)
LT: May Live Cattle Options(CME)
Jun Cocoa Options(ICE)
05/04
Mon
9:00 AM CDT - Factory Orders(Mar)
3:00 PM CDT - Crop Progress
 
 
FN: May RBOB & ULSD(NYM)
 
 
 
05/05
Tue
7:30 AM CDT - Adv Intl Trade In Goods(Mar)
7:30 AM CDT - Adv Retail Inventories(Mar)
7:30 AM CDT - Adv Wholesale Inventories(Mar)
7:30 AM CDT - Trade Balance(Mar)
3:30 PM CDT - API Energy Stocks

 
 
 
05/06
Wed
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Index
7:15 AM CDT - ADP Employment Change(Apr)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales
LT: May Cotton(NYM)
 
 
 
05/07
Thu
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CDT - Productivity-Prel(Q1)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Natural Gas Report
2:00 PM CDT - Consumer Credit(Mar)
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply

 
 
 
05/08
Fri
7:30 AM CDT - Nonfarm Payrolls(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - Ave Workweek & Hourly Earnings(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - Unemployment Rate(Apr)
9:00 AM CDT - Wholesale Inventories(Mar)
LT: May Orange Juice(ICE)
May Canadian Dollar Options(CME)
May Currencies Options(CME)
May Mx Peso Options(CME)
May US Dollar Index Options(ICE)
Jun Coffee Options(ICE)
05/11
Mon
3:00 PM CDT - Crop Progress
 
 
 

 
 
 
05/12
Tue
7:30 AM CDT - Core CPI & CPI(Apr)
11:00 AM CDT - WADSE Report & Crop Production
3:30 PM CDT - API Energy Stocks

 
 
 
05/13
Wed
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Index
7:30 AM CDT - Core PPI & PPI(Apr)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales
LT: May Cocoa(ICE)
 
 
 
05/14
Thu
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CDT - Export(ex-ag) & Import(ex-oil) Prices(Apr)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Natural Gas Report
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply
LT: May Canola(CBT)
May Wheat(CBT)
May Corn(CBT)
May Oats(CBT)
May Rough Rice(CBT)
May Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil(CBT)
May Lean Hogs(CME)
May Lean Hogs Options(CME)
Jun Crude Lt Options(NYM)
FN=First Notice, OE=Option Expiration, LT=Last Trade

Disclaimer: This calendar is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Moore Research Center, Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. It is meant as an alert to events that may affect trading strategies and is not necessarily complete. The release dates for certain economic reports may have been rescheduled.

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!

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