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February 15th, 2019 Newsletter

Simpler approach to day trading futures video and Euro Currency outlook. Learn how to utilize range bar charts, oversold, overbought indicators. Concept of price confirmation and more.

February 15th, 2019 - Issue #954

In This Issue

1. Trading Video: How I like to day-trade futures using either counter trend or trend following concepts
2. Hot Market Report: Euro Currency Continues to Grind Lower
3. Economic Calendar

Presidents Day this Monday. Markets will have modified trading hours and some are closed on Monday.

1. Trading Video: How I like to day-trade futures using either counter trend or trend following concepts ( or what I call simpler approach to day trading)


In this 25 minutes video you will learn the following:

1. Possible advantages of using range bar charts over time charts for day trading
2. Trade set ups using counter trend indicators
3. Trade set ups using trend following indicators
4. The concept of price confirmation
5. Tips and insights from Ilan's observations of different markets
6. You will be able to install the indicators/concepts mentioned and practice right away with your own demo!

 
 

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2. Hot Market Report: Euro Currency Continues to Grind Lower

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Click on image below to enlarge

6E futures; Hope, Fear, Confidence, Distrust, anticipation, these are all human qualities we can ascribe to our daily relationships with others and the environments around us.
These adjectives also describe the emotions that have a very large impact on the prices of any auction market traded and made sense of through technical analysis. The Eurocurrency prices (Euro’s from this point forward), as in any other auction market are subject to many different fundamental factors. No factors are probably more important than European Central Bank Policy and the impact it may have on the price of the Euro relative to other world currency valuations.
So Let’s take a look at a main policy tool, the short term interest rate, and when and why bankers move rates. Interest rate policy largely attempts to control financial system liquidity by making the “Cost of Money” cheaper or more expensive, the cheaper the cost of money, the more liquidity there is in the financial system whereas higher, more expensive interest rates would have the opposite desired result, reducing liquidity in the system and making the cost of funds more expensive. When these shifts in policy are announced, the respective markets affected by such changes also change, reacting with fear, hope, distrust or anticipation.
Central Banks generally tend to raise short term rates: slowly applying the brakes to an Economy that is feared to be exhibiting Inflation. Conversely, lowering interest rates to stimulate growth, easing the availability of capital.
You may be asking yourself what this has to do the price of the Euro? Quite a lot, you see, the market reacts to factors that MAY impact decisions the Central Bankers make, for instance, according to EC.Europa.EU/Eurostat says that Germany’s economy constituted 21.3% of the GDP of the entire EU while according to the same statistics, the United Kingdom represents 15.2% of the DGP of the Eurozone.
If the health of either of these economy’s comes under distress, conventional wisdom suggests the Central bankers will ease credit, provide more liquidity and make the “cost of money” cheaper to stimulate growth. Ultimately, these policies devalue the homelands currency and The Euro prices work lower over time. This can be a self- fulfilling prophecy for the value of the Euro as, large entities shift investment decisions, sell Euro denominated assets and buy assets denominated in a currency whose interest rates are higher. Capital flows out of the Eurozone and into more profitable currencies, depressing the price of the Euro. Hope , Fear, confidence, distrust and anticipation drive prices based on economic dynamics in the currency world.
Daily chart of Euro Currency futures for your review from this morning ( February 15th 2019). Note we are trying to make another leg lower but trading between two major levels
Personally, I would much rather trade the currency futures than FOREX spot. Many beginning traders who start small will venture into the forex markets but it is my opinion that a primary market that is trading on one regulated and centralized exchange is much better than trading "against" your broker/forex dealer in a secondary market.
To access a free trial to the ALGOS shown in the chart visit and sign up for a free trial for 21 days with real-time data.
Euro Currency Futures Specs
Hours: 5:00 PM to 4:00 PM next day PM Central Time
Margins: $2530 initial, $2300 Maint. ( as of the date of this newsletter)
Point Value: full point = $1250.00 ( Example: 114.650 to 115.650 ). Min fluctuation is 1/2 = $6.25 ( Example: 114.650 to 114.655) Settlement: Deliverable, FND is last business day preceding the contract month
Months: March (H), May (K), July (N), September (U,) December(Z)
Weekly Options:YES
Euro Currency futures are a good market for Day Trading in my opinion because of the intraday range and movements. Be careful, these factors can work against you or in your favor.
Some of the basic fundamentals to keep in mind when you are considering a trade in the Euro Currency as well as other currencies:
1. When you are trading the Euro Currency or any other currency pair, you must be aware of Central Bank Risk, policy changes, Interest rate adjustments, Inflation expectations, prices of other commodities that may impact the health of a sovereign currency.
2. Dates and times of important reports for that specific country
3. Relationship with other currencies
4. Global Political situation

Our brokers here at Cannon will be happy to chat about the Euro Currency market, other currencies, other futures, options, futures spreads and much more! Feel free to contact us at any time.

3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

Date Reports Expiration & Notice Dates
02/15
Fri
7:30 AM CST - Export(ex-ag) & Import(ex-oil) Prices(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Retail Sales(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Retail Sales-Ex Auto(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Empire State Manufacturing Survey(Feb)
8:15 AM CST - Capacity Util & Industrial Prod(Jan)
9:00 AM CST - Business Inventories(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment-Prelim(Feb)
11:00 AM CST - NOPA Crush
3:00 PM CST - Net Long-Term TIC Flows(Dec)
LT: Feb Mx Peso(CME)
Feb Nikkei Options(CME)
Feb Eurodollar Options(CME)
Mar Orange Juice Options(ICE)
Mar Sugar-11 Options(ICE)

02/18
Mon
PRESIDENT'S DAY
 
 
 
LT: Feb Eurodollar(CME)
 
 
 
02/19
Tue
9:00 AM CST - NAHB Housing Market Index(Feb)

 
 

 
 
 
02/20
Wed
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Index
7:30 AM CST - Building Permits & Housing Starts(Jan)
1:00 PM CST - FOMC Minutes
3:30 PM CST - API Energy Stocks
FN: Mar Coffee(ICE)
LT: Mar Crude Lt(NYM)
Mar Platinum Options(NYM)
Mar Palladium Options(NYM)
02/21
Thu
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CST - Philadelphia Fed(Feb)
7:30 AM CST - Durable Orders(Dec)
7:30 AM CST - Durable Goods Ex-Transportation(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - Existing Home Sales(Jan)
9:00 AM CST - Leading Indicators(Jan)
9:30 AM CST - EIA Natural Gas Report
10:00 AM CST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM CST - Dairy Products Sales
3:30 PM CST - Money Supply

 
 
 
02/22
Fri
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
2:00 PM CST - Cattle On Feed
2:00 PM CST - Cold Storage
 
FN: Mar Cotton(NYM)
Mar Crude Lt(NYM)
LT: Feb Bitcoin(CME)
Mar 2,5,10 Year Notes Options(CBT)
Mar Bonds Options(CBT)
Mar Canola Options(CBT)
Mar Wheat Options(CBT)
Mar Corn Options(CBT)
Mar Oats Options(CBT)
Mar Rough Rice Options(CBT)
Mar Soybeans,Soyoil,Soymeal(CBT)
02/25
Mon
9:00 AM CST - Wholesale Inventories(Dec)
 
 
 
LT: Mar Copper Options(CMX)
Mar Gold Options(CMX)
Mar Silver Options(CMX)
Mar Natural Gas Options(NYM)
Mar RBOB & ULSD Options(NYM)
02/26
Tue
7:00 AM CST - S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index(Dec)
8:00 AM CST - FHFA Housing Price Index(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - Consumer Confidence(Feb)
9:00 AM CST - New Home Sales(Jan)
3:30 PM CST - API Energy Stocks

 
 
 
02/27
Wed
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Index
7:30 AM CST - Durable Goods-Ex Transportation(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Durable Orders(Jan)
9:00 AM CST - Fed Chair/Semi-Ann Monetary Policy Testimony(Feb)
9:00 AM CST - Pending Home Sales(Jan)
9:30 AM CST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM CST - Diary Products Sales
FN: Mar Natural Gas(NYM)
 
 
 
02/28
Thu
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CST - GDP-Adv(Q4)
7:30 AM CST - GDP-Deflator-Adv(Q4)
7:30 AM CST - Adv Int Trade In Goods(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Adv Retail Inventories(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Adv Wholesale Inventories(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Chicago PMI(Feb)
9:30 AM CST - EIA Natural Gas Inventories
3:30 PM CST - Money Supply
FN: Mar 2,5,10 Year Notes(CBT)
Mar Bonds(CBT)
Mar Canola(CBT)
Mar Wheat(CBT)
Mar Corn(CBT)
Mar Rough Rice(CBT)
Mar Oats(CBT)
Mar Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil(CBT)
Mar Copper(CMX)
Mar Gold & Silver(CMX)
Mar Platinum & Palladium(NYM)
LT: Feb Fed Funds(CME)
Feb Live Cattle(CME)
Mar Black Sea Wheat(CME)
Mar RBOB & ULSD(NYM)
Mar Sugar-11(ICE)
Feb Fed Funds Options(CME)
Mar Lumber Options(CME)

FN=First Notice, OE=Option Expiration, LT=Last Trade

Disclaimer: This calendar is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Moore Research Center, Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. It is meant as an alert to events that may affect trading strategies and is not necessarily complete. The release dates for certain economic reports may have been rescheduled.

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!

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