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2. Hot Market Report: Next Round of Stimulus: Where are the 10 year Notes Headed?
By John Thorpe, Senior Brokers
Click on image below to enlarge
This week’s highlighted Market is 10 yr Treasury Note Futures
The US 10 year treasury note market belongs to the "interest rate family" 30 year, 5 year, 2 year notes, the "Ultra bond" and others. All traded on the CBOT exchange.
The open interest in the 10yr note market is dwarfed by few contracts,
With a current OI in the front month ZNU20 at 3,452,000 today , this market dominates U.S. Treasury Futures contracts across the yield curve.
When the stimulus cash dispersal again increases, we know the Fed will be buying most of the Treasury paper offered through the Thursday weekly auctions. Our U.S. Governments fiscal year end is less than 8 weeks away.
Funding through the end of September for a variety of obligations is done through the issuance of new debt. This time of year with greater demand for Govt debt, the price of Ten Yr Notes ZNU20 should continue to increase.
It appears this bull is waiting for congress to determine the next round of stimulus, The overnight margin is low relative to the contract size.
Continue watching the size of the weekly Treasury auctions (see this week's sizes). They'll be getting bigger. And watch the bid-to-covers on the longer dated issues.
The question I ask is will the demand hold up for the longer-dated paper?
This from Bloomberg yesterday
“ The US Treasury expanded its plans for the issuance of longer-term debt in coming months, after depending mainly on shorter-dated bills to fund the federal government’s record spending surge to address the Covid-19 crisis.
The department yesterday said it will issue a record $112bn of securities at next week’s so-called quarterly refunding of maturing Treasuries. Over the three months through October, it will ramp up issuance of nominal coupon-bearing debt by a total of $132bn compared with the previous quarter. The department plans to boost auction sizes across all nominal coupon tenors, with larger increases for the longer-dated securities maturing in seven to 30 years.”
10 yr Treasury Note Futures Hours: 05:00 PM previous day to 4:00 PM Central Time
Margins: $1705 initial, $1550 Maint. ( as of the date of this newsletter)
Point Value: full point = $1000 ( Example: 140 31.5 to 139 31.5 ). Min fluctuation is 0.5 = $15.625 ( Example: 139 31.0-139 31.5)
Settlement: Physical Delivery Months: March, June, September,December. H,M,U,Z Weekly Options:YES
Some of the basic fundamentals to keep in mind when you are considering trading the U.S.10 yr Treasury Note for this matter:
1. Interest Rates.
2. FOMC Rate decisions and Language
3. Focus in macroeconomics
4. Bond Prices have an inverse relationship to Interest rates
5. Correlation to US Dollar prices
6. Inflationary prospects
7. Geopolitical Stability
8. U.S. Fiscal and Monetary Stability
Our brokers here at Cannon will be happy to chat about the 10 yr notes market, other financials, other futures, options, futures spreads and much more!
Feel free to contact us at any time.
Disclaimer: This calendar is compiled from
sources believed to be reliable. Moore Research Center, Inc.
assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. It is meant
as an alert to events that may affect trading strategies and is not
necessarily complete. The release dates for certain economic
reports may have been rescheduled.
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.