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May 25th, 2018 Newsletter

Commitment of Traders Report: What is it? how can a trader utilize the information to make better futures trading decisions? along with a review of crude oil futures

May 25th, 2018 - Issue #921

In This Issue

1. Futures Trading 201: COT Commitment of Traders Report
2. Hot Market Report: Crude Oil and the Energy Sector
3. Economic Calendar

Memorial Day Hoiliday this Monday. Markets will have modified trading hours and some are closed on Monday.

1. Trading 102: Commitment of Traders Report - What Lies beneath

In this 24 page PDF booklet, Gary Kamen of Trends in Futures reviews the commitment of traders report, what it means, how traders can utilize it and much more.

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* History of the COT report
* Why is this report important?
* The new COT report
* How can you use the information in this report?
* And much more....

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2. Hot Market Report: Crude Oil and the Energy Sector

By Ilan Levy-Mayer

Click on image below to enlarge

crude oil futures; Crude Oil futures, along with other energies, enjoyed a choppy ride up these past few weeks on the heels of mideast tensions, Iran nuclear deal, trade truce with China and more
Daily chart of crude oil for you review from this morning ( May 25th 2018). We got a possible sell signal in the shape of a red diamond. That signal appears when the ALGO "thinks" the market is extremely overbought and has a chance to reverse. I normally like to use this signal for a swing trade of 1-5 days. The longer term time frames still suggest we have more room to go to the upside. In general the energy sector been in backwardation ( i.e. the front months are trading higher than the back months) Normally this points out a tighter, short term market and can push prices higher. That being said....My colleague has pointed out to me that both in 2007 and 2014 the energy sector was in backwardation before a big correction took place..... To access a free trial to the diamond ALGo shown in the chart as well as other signals sign up for a free trial for 21 days with realtime data.
Crude Oil Futures Specs
Hours: 5:00 PM to 4:00 PM next day PM Central Time
Margins: $2560 initial, $2200 Maint. ( as of the date of this newsletter)
Point Value: full point = $1000 ( Example: 71.80 to 72.80 ). Min fluctuation is 0.1 = $10 ( Example: 71.80 to 71.81)
Crude Oil is one of my favorite markets for Day Trading because of the intraday voilatility and movements. Be careful, these factors can work against you or in your favor.
Some of the basic fundamentals to keep in mind when you are considering a trade in the crude oil as well as other energies:
1. Longer term view of current market prices
2. Dates and times of important reports. Namely, Tuesday afternoon report (API) and the DOE report on Wednesday mornings at 10:30 Am EST
3. Weather and Seasonality
4. Correlation to US Dollar prices
5. Inflationary prospects
6. Geopolitical Stability
7. U.S. Fiscal and Monetary Stability

Our brokers here at Cannon will be happy to chat about the crude olil market, other energies, other futures, options, futures spreads and much more! Feel free to contact us at any time.

3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

Date Reports Expiration & Notice Dates
05/25
Fri
7:30 AM CDT - Durable Orders(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - Durable Goods-Ex Transportation(Apr)
9:00 AM CDT - Mich Sentiment-Final(May)
11:00 AM CDT - Cattle On Feed
LT: Jun 2,5,10 Year Notes Options(CBT)
Jun Bonds Options(CBT)
Jun Canola Options(CBT)
Jun Wheat Options(CBT)
Jun Corn Options(CBT)
Jun Oats Options(CBT)
Jun Rough Rice Options(CBT)
Jun Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil Options(CBT)
Jun Natural Gas Options(NYM)
Jun RBOB & ULSD Options(NYM)

05/28
Mon
MEMORIAL DAY
 
 
 

 
 
 
05/29
Tue
8:00 AM CDT - S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index(Mar)
9:00 AM CDT - Consumer Confidence(May)
 
 
LT: May Copper(CMX)
May Gold(CMX)
May Silver(CMX)
May Platinum(NYM)
May Palladium(NYM)
Jun Natural Gas(NYM)
05/30
Wed
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Applications Index
7:15 AM CDT - ADP Employment Change(May)
7:30 AM CDT - GDP-Second Estimate(Q1)
7:30 AM CDT - GDP Deflator-Second Estimate(Q1)
7:30 AM CDT - Adv Int Trade In Goods(Apr)
1:00 PM CDT - Fed's Beige Book
3:30 PM CDT - API Energy Stocks
FN: Jun Natural Gas(NYM)
LT: May Butter(CME)
May Milk(CME)
May Butter Options(CME)
May Milk Options(CME)
05/31
Thu
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CDT - PCE Prices(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - PCE Prices-Core(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - Personal Income & Spending(Apr)
8:45 AM CDT - Chicago PMI(May)
9:00 AM CDT - Pending Home Sales(Apr)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Natural Gas Report
10:00 AM CDT - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Product Sales
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply
FN: Jun 2,5,10 Year Notes(CBT)
Jun Bonds(CBT)
Jun Copper(CMX)
Jun Gold & Silver(CMX)
Jun Platinum & Palladium(NYM)
LT: May Fed Funds(CME)
Jun RBOB & ULSD(CME)
May Fed Funds Options(CME)
Jun Lumber Options(CME)
06/01
Fri
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Ave Workweek & Hourly Earnings(May)
7:30 AM CDT - Nonfarm Payrolls(May)
7:30 AM CDT - Unemployment Rate(May)
9:00 AM CDT - Construction Spending(Apr)
9:00 AM CDT - ISM Index(May)
1:00 PM CDT - Auto & Truck Sales(May)
2:00 PM CDT - Cotton System
2:00 PM CDT - Fats & Oils
2:00 PM CDT - Grain Crushings
LT: Jun Live Cattle Options(CME)
Jul Cocoa Options(ICE)

 
06/04
Mon
9:00 AM CDT - Factory Orders(Apr)
 
 
 
FN: Jun Live Cattle(CME)
Jun RBOB & ULSD(NYM)

 
06/05
Tue
9:00 AM CDT - ISM Services(May)
9:00 AM CDT - JOLTS-Job Openings(Apr)
3:30 PM CDT - API Energy Stocks
 

 
 
 
06/06
Wed
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Index
7:30 AM CDT - Trade Balance(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - Unit Labor Costs-Rev(Q1)
7:30 AM CDT - Productivity-Rev(Q1)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales

 
 
 
06/07
Thu
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Natural Gas Report
2:00 PM CDT - Consumer Credit(Apr)
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply
LT: Jun Nikkei(CME)
Jun Nikkei Options(CME)

 
FN=First Notice, OE=Option Expiration, LT=Last Trade

Disclaimer: This calendar is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Moore Research Center, Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. It is meant as an alert to events that may affect trading strategies and is not necessarily complete. The release dates for certain economic reports may have been rescheduled.

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!

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