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May 10th, 2019 Newsletter

Video on trading set ups using counter trend and trend following concepts with specific examples and a look at Kansas City Wheat futures grinding lower along with a chart for your review.

May 10th, 2019 - Issue #964

In This Issue

1. Trading Video: How I like to day-trade futures using either counter trend or trend following concepts
2. Hot Market Report: Kansas City Wheat Continues to Grind Lower
3. Economic Calendar

Latest Updates on MICRO E-Minis!!

1. Trading Video: How I like to day-trade futures using either counter trend or trend following concepts ( or what I call simpler approach to day trading)


In this 25 minutes video you will learn the following:

1. Possible advantages of using range bar charts over time charts for day trading
2. Trade set ups using counter trend indicators
3. Trade set ups using trend following indicators
4. The concept of price confirmation
5. Tips and insights from Ilan's observations of different markets
6. You will be able to install the indicators/concepts mentioned and practice right away with your own demo!

 
 

View Video Instantly "simple approach to Day Trading"

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2. Hot Market Report: Kansas City Wheat Continues to Grind Lower

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Click on image below to enlarge

kw futures; Here is the July 2019 Kansas City Wheat Daily chart with a simple channel . Today’s High was an opportunity to further Hedge if you are a producer or to sell what you’re holding to make room in your bins for the harvest in 5 to 10 weeks. With plentiful global supplies and plenty of price competition, HRW should continue to work lower, bucking traditional seasonal trends. Farmers selling on rallies into the foreseeable future appears to be a given this year.
Daily chart of Euro Currency futures for your review from this morning ( May 10th 2019).

According to this week’s May 5th N.A.S.S. Kansas Crop Progress and condition release, better than 55% of the 2019 Kansas Winter Wheat crop is rated good to excellent. Winter Wheat was 80% jointed, ahead of last years 71% but behind the 5 year avg. of 87% at this time. Given the varied weather this spring that’s progress. Still watch for hail storms between now and harvest as a potential supply wrecker, but with global coffers as full as they are, I don’t see much upside price pressure.

Since the $5.11/bu price in early January, we’ve dropped over 22% . This price action has created a handsome channel . If todays price action as confirmation of a continued trend lower, (can’t break through to the upside) as an attempt to shake the monkey off it’s back soundly failed from its daily early morning high of 4.01 ¾ /Bu and is currently trading -10 ½ cents and probing the bottom of the channel above. Until the trend tells me different, I would sell rallys and always use protection.


This chart was prepared using E-Futures Int'l software, which you can demo for 28 days with realtime data.

KC Wheat (HRW) Futures Specs
Hours: 7:00 PM to 1:20 PM next day PM Central Time
Margins: 1485 initial, $1350 Maint. ( as of the date of this newsletter)
Point Value: full Cent = $50.00 ( Example: $5.60 to $5.61/bu ). Min fluctuation is 2/8ths of a cent = $12.50 ( Example: 5.60 -5.602) Settlement: : Deliverable, FND is last business day preceding the contract month
Months: March (H), May (K), July (N), September (U,) December(Z)
Weekly Options:YES
Some of the basic fundamentals to keep in mind when you are considering trading KE or other Wheat contracts, ZW (Chicago) or MWE (Minneapolis Wheat):
1. Longer term view of current market prices
2. Dates and times of important reports. WASDE, Planting intentions, Crop progress
3. Weather
4. Global Political situation (food often used as a weapon in trade)

Our brokers here at Cannon will be happy to chat about the Euro Currency market, other currencies, other futures, options, futures spreads and much more! Feel free to contact us at any time.

3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

Date Reports Expiration & Notice Dates
05/10
Fri
7:30 AM CDT - Core CPI & CPI(Apr)
11:00 AM CDT - WASDE Report & Crop Production
1:00 PM CDT - Treasury Budget(Apr)
LT: May Orange Juice(ICE)
May Eurodollar Options(CME)
Jun Coffee Options(ICE)
05/13
Mon

 
 
 
LT: May Eurodollar(CME)
May Mx Peso(CME)

 
05/14
Tue
7:30 AM CDT - Export (ex-ag) & Import (ex-oil) Prices(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - Export & Import Prices(Apr)
3:30 PM CDT - API Energy Stocks
 
LT: May Canola(CBT)
May Wheat(CBT)
May Corn(CBT)
May Oats(CBT)
May Rough Rice(CBT)
May Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil(CBT)
May Lean Hogs(CME)
May Lean Hogs Options(CME)

05/15
Wed
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Index
7:30 AM CDT - Empire State Manufacturing(May)
7:30 AM CDT - Retail Sales(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - Retail Sales Ex-Auto(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - Empire State Manufacturing(May)
8:15 AM CDT - Capacity Util & Industrial Prod(Apr)
9:00 AM CDT - Business Inventories(Mar)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM CDT - NOPA Crush
2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales
3:00 PM CDT - Net Long-term TIC Flows(Mar)
LT: May Cocoa(ICE)
May Lumber(CME)
Jun Platinum Options(NYM)
Jun Palladium Options(NYM)
Jun Sugar-11 Options(ICE)
05/16
Thu
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Building Permits & Housing Starts(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - Intial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CDT - Philadelphia Fed Index(May)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Natural Gas Report
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply
FN: May Lumber(CME)
LT: Jun Crude Lt Options(NYM)
 
 
05/17
Fri
9:00 AM CDT - Leading Indicators(Apr)
9:00 AM CDT - Univ of Mich Consumer Sent-Prelim(May)
 
 
LT: May Nikkei Options(CME)
Jun Orange Juice Options(ICE)

 
05/20
Mon

 
 
 

 
 
 
05/21
Tue
9:00 AM CDT - Existing Home Sales(Apr)
3:30 PM CDT - API Energy Stocks
 
 
LT: Jun Crude Lt(NYM)
 
 
 
05/22
Wed
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Applications Index
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM CDT - Cold Storage
2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales

 
 
 
05/23
Thu
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Natural Gas Report
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply
FN: Jun Crude Lt(NYM)
LT: May Feeder Cattle(CME)
May Feeder Cattle Options(CME)
FN=First Notice, OE=Option Expiration, LT=Last Trade

Disclaimer: This calendar is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Moore Research Center, Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. It is meant as an alert to events that may affect trading strategies and is not necessarily complete. The release dates for certain economic reports may have been rescheduled.

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!

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