September 21st, 2018 - Issue #937
In This Issue
1. Trading Outlook for October: Deadlines to determine Market Direction
2. Hot Market Report: Soybean pushed around by Brazilian Real and Tariffs Talks
3. Economic Calendar
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1. TTN Market Outlook for Sept-Oct: Deadlines
From Our friends at: Trade The News
The next few months will see the culmination of a number of geopolitical issues that have been building a ‘wall of worry’ for the financial markets.
A cluster of hard and soft deadlines will hit from now through the end of the year that will realign the global political and economic landscape for years to come.
From the impending US Congressional election, to the due date for a Brexit deal, to looming ultimatums on trade deals, these deadline will mark binary moments that could either give markets the footholds to keep climbing or cause the first stumble toward the next recession.
These key unresolved risks along with the historical trend for the September-October period to be especially volatile are a recipe for some unnerving gyrations during the next couple of months. If progress is demonstrated on these time-sensitive issues, then equity markets may continue to melt up on the strength of corporate earnings reports amid stronger fiscal stimulus and what is still a highly accommodative interest rate environment globally.
Free Trial: Try TradeTheNews audio and text services today and see why institutional traders use TradeTheNews.com for their trading edge.
The D.C. Political Calendar
In the US, the growing intensity of the political divide between Democrats and Trump’s Republican Party may hit a crescendo in the next few months. With control of Congress the President has been able to shape an agenda of lower taxes, increased military spending, and cutting regulation. But Trump’s chaotic personality has maybe made these victories harder than they should have been and has contributed to consistently low poll numbers for the President outside of his core supporters.
The installation of another conservative jurist on the Supreme Court this fall may be his last victory in a while as all indications are the Democrats should retake the House in the mid-term elections (November 6).
....Finish reading market outlook
Market Outlook
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2. Hot Market Report: Soybean "bullied" by the Brazilian Real and Tariffs Talks
By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VPClick on image below to enlarge
Soybeans futures are part of the GRAINS family which includes 4 types of Wheat, Corn, Soymeal, Oats, Rough Rice and Bean Oil. All traded on the CBOT/GLOBEX exchange.
Weekly chart of Soybean Futures for your review from this morning ( Sept. 21st 2018). You can see that the recent lows made are very important support for the market at this point.
This chart was prepared using CQG Q Trader software, which you can demo for 14 days with realtime data.
The blue diamonds on the chart, suggest that the market is a bit oversold on the weekly levels, on the other hand the red bars with triangles on top are marking what I believe is a down trend...Trading is never easy nor black or white.....
To access a free trial to the ALGOS shown in the chart along with other tools, visit and sign up for a free trial for 21 days with real-time data.
From the fundamental perspective, tariffs talks have hurt the Soybean market like many other commodities over the past few months. Add to the mix, the weakness of the Brazilian Real ( Brazil is a major beans producer) and you get some of the picture for the major, recent weakness. Is the market oversold? will we get some crop scares here in the US? Time will tell but for now I see some interesting option plays which I will be more than happy to discuss with any of you on one on one basis.
Soybean Futures Specs
Hours: 7:00 PM to 1:20 PM next day PM Central Time
Margins: $2600 initial, $1850 Maint. ( as of the date of this newsletter)
Point Value: full Cent = $50.00 ( Example: $8.60 to $8.61/bu ). Min fluctuation is 2/8ths of a cent = $12.50 ( Example: 8.60 -8.602) Settlement: Deliverable, FND is last business day preceding the contract month
Months: January (F), March (H), May (K), July (N), August (Q),September (U), November(X)
Weekly Options: YES
The bean market has good volume and enough volatility that it can be traded intraday, swing trading, using options and more.
Some of the basic fundamentals to keep in mind when you are considering trading ZS ( Soybean)
1. Longer term view of current market prices
2. Dates and times of important reports. WASDE, Planting intentions, Crop progress
3. Weather
4. Global Political situation (food often used as a weapon in trade)
4. Dollar strength or lack of, Brazilian Real value
Our brokers here at Cannon will be happy to chat about the Soybean market, other grains, other futures, options, futures spreads and much more! Feel free to contact us at any time.
3. Economic Calendar
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 09/21 Fri |
2:00 PM CDT - Cattle On Feed
|
LT: Sep E-Mini Dow(CME)
Sep E-Mini S&P 500(CME) Sep NASDAQ(CME) Sep Russell(CME) Sep E-Mini Dow Options(CME) Sep E-Mini S&P 500 Options(CME) Sep NASDAQ Options(CME) Sep Russell Options(CME) Oct 2,5,10 Year Notes Options(CBT) Oct Bonds Options(CBT) Oct Canola Options(CBT) Oct Wheat Options(CBT) Oct Corn Options(CBT) Oct Rough Rice Options(CBT) Oct Oats Options(CBT) Oct Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil Options(CBT) Oct Orange Juice Options(ICE) |
| 09/24 Mon |
2:00 PM CDT - Cold Storage
|
FN: Oct Cotton(NYM)
Oct Crude Lt(NYM) |
| 09/25 Tue |
8:00 AM CDT - FHFA Housing Price Index(Jul)
8:00 AM CDT - S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index(Jul) 9:00 AM CDT - Consumer Confidence(Sep) 3:30 PM CDT - API Energy Stocks |
LT: Oct Copper Options(CMX)
Oct Gold Options(CMX) Oct Silver Options(CMX) Oct Natural Gas Options(NYM) Oct RBOB & ULSD Options(NYM) |
| 09/26 Wed |
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Index
9:00 AM CDT - New Home Sales(Aug) 9:30 AM CDT - EIA Petroleum Status Report 1:00 PM CDT - FOMC Rate Decision 2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales |
LT: Sep Copper(CMX)
Sep Gold(CMX) Sep Silver(CMX) Sep Palladium(NYM) Sep Platinum(NYM) Oct Natural Gas(NYM) |
| 09/27 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 7:30 AM CDT - Adv Int. Trade In Goods(Aug) 7:30 AM CDT - Adv Retail Inventories(Aug) 7:30 AM CDT - Adv Wholesale Inventories(Aug) 7:30 AM CDT - Durable Goods-Ex Transportation(Aug) 7:30 AM CDT - Durable Orders(Aug) 7:30 AM CDT - GDP-Third Estimate(Q2) 7:30 AM CDT - GDP Deflator-Third Estimate(Q2) 9:00 AM CDT - Pending Home Sales(Aug) 9:30 AM CDT - EIA Natural Gas Report 2:00 PM CDT - Hogs & Pigs 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
FN: Oct Natural Gas(NYM)
LT: Sep Feeder Cattle(CME) Sep Feeder Cattle Options(CME) |
| 09/28 Fri |
7:30 AM CDT - PCE Prices(Aug)
7:30 AM CDT - PCE Prices-Core(Aug) 7:30 AM CDT - Personal Income & Spending(Aug) 8:45 AM CDT - Chicago PMI(Sep) 9:00 AM CDT - Michigan Sentiment-Final(Sep) 11:00 AM CDT - Grain Stocks 11:00 AM CDT - Small Grains Summary |
FN: Oct Copper(CMX)
Oct Gold & Silver(CMX) Oct Platinum & Palladium(NYM) Oct Soymeal & Soyoil(CBT) LT: Sep 2,5 Year Notes(CBT) Sep Fed Funds(CME) Oct RBOB & ULSD(NYM) Oct Sugar-11(ICE) Sep Fed Funds Options(CME) Oct Lumber Options(CME) |
| 10/01 Mon |
9:00 AM CDT - Construction Spending(Aug)
9:00 AM CDT - ISM Index(Sep) 2:00 PM CDT - Cotton System 2:00 PM CDT - Fats & Oils 2:00 PM CDT - Grain Crushings |
FN: Oct Sugar-11(ICE)
|
| 10/02 Tue |
1:00 PM CDT - Auto & Truck Sales(Sep)
3:30 PM CDT - API Energy Stocks |
FN: Oct RBOB & ULSD(NYM)
LT: Sep Butter(CME) Sep Milk(CME) Sep Butter Options(CME) Sep Milk Options(CME) |
| 10/03 Wed |
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
7:15 AM CDT - ADP Employment Change(Sep) 9:00 AM CDT - ISM Services(Sep) 9:30 AM CDT - EIA Petroleum Status Report 2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales |
|
| 10/04 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CDT - Factory Orders(Aug) 9:30 AM CDT - EIA Natural Gas Report 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
|
| FN=First Notice, OE=Option Expiration, LT=Last Trade | ||
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
