March 1st, 2019 Newsletter

Silver futures failing at resistance along with day trading tips delivered to your cell phone

March 1st, 2019 - Issue #955

In This Issue

1. Trading 101: Day Trading Tips
2. Hot Market Report: Silver Futures sell off as First Notice Day (FN) arrives
3. Economic Calendar

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1. Day Trading Tips

The following is an excerpt from our daily trading blog which features current support and resistance levels, economic reports and market commentary:

Few pointers for you day-traders out there. I am sure you have heard some from different resources but never hurts to read and absorb this again:

1. Be patient
2. Limit the number of hours you trade
3. Know your DAILY risk before the day begins and this will dictate
the number of contracts you trade
4. Choose markets with high liquidity
5. Know what reports come out every day and their impact on the markets.
6. Understand that even the best methods will have losing days.
7. Learn to accept loses
8. Use RISK CAPITAL only
9. Don't try to trade and do other things
10. Educate yourself
11. Keep a trading journal

Interested in learning more? View our Daily Trading Blog and sign up for daily emails here

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2. Hot Market Report: Silver Futures sell off as First Notice Day arrives

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Click on image below to enlarge

silverfutures; First Notice of Delivery and the Precious Metals roll a quick lesson in Market Structure.

I have clients who take delivery of precious metals through their brokerage account with me. But most clients trade the metals with no intention of making or taking delivery of the metal.
First notice of delivery occurs when long positions, especially the oldest net long positions, cross over into the life of a deliverable futures contract into the delivery time frame.
I have been following the Silver market since the Spring of 1979 I was 19 on the cusp of 20 working a trade desk at the CBOT as an assistant floor manager for H.S. Kipnis and Co. at the edge of the 5000 oz. Silver pit. Yes, it was the bastard contract, the competing contract, to the Comex Exchanges 5000 oz. offering and had different depositories backing the integrity of the contract and yes, the Hunt brothers were accumulating and placing their orders through multiple floor clearing operations, from the big national houses to the smaller, yet in many ways, more sophisticated operations with a higher concentration of professional employees relative to support staff ( like CannonTrading ;-) ) . It was with certainty, a market during times of precarious economic UNcertainty and was a sight to behold! unbeknownst to the majority of market participants, Bunker, Herbert and Lamar Hunt and their legal teams were stockpiling almost 2/3rds of the worlds privately held supply of silver. What does this story have to do with the observation of the silver markets I am about to share with you? During the accumulation phase of a Silver rally we see price action continue , in some cases with greater volatility, to the upside through the roll out of the higher volume “Front Month” to the next subsequent contract month during the late seventies did not reflect the current market structure. We didn’t see a swoon in prices during these roll periods that we see today. in the case of March Silver rolling to May, we recently saw the market sell off handily just prior to first notice day.
But that’s not all, what happened in December when we rolled to March? Another selloff initiated two days prior to first notice day. Then you might want to take a look at price action when we rolled out of September to December 2018? A selloff two days prior to first notice day. This observation tells me that although Precious metals prices have moved considerably off their lows from 2017, this rally, although technical damage has been done to the recent bull run, that this rally should remain a solid buy the breaks market opportunity. Don’t look for an explosive move up just quite yet, but be prepared as we continue to make higher lows on the charts., Watch for when silver prices trade higher through the roll and get ready! Keep an eye on market structure changes.

The above was an opinion and sharing of personal experiences by john Thorpe, a senior broker with Cannon Trading. These opinions are provided as such and meant for educational purposes and not as a trade recommendation.

Silver belongs to the "metals family": Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium. All traded on the COMEX exchange.

Daily chart of silver Futures for your review from this morning ( March 1st 2019). This is a Heiken-Ashi type of chart. Silver is "usually" volatile enough and liquid enough to be suitable for both day trading and swing trading. To access a free trial to the ALGOS shown in the chart visit and sign up for a free trial for 21 days with real-time data.
SILVER Futures Specs
Hours: 05:00 PM previous day to 4:00 PM Central Time
Margins: $5600 initial, $5000 Maint. ( as of the date of this newsletter)
Point Value: full point = $5000 ( Example: 16.80 to 17.80 ). Min fluctuation is 0.05 = $25 ( Example: 16.800 to 16.805) Settlement: Physical Delivery
Months: January, March, May, July, September,December. F,H,K,N,U,Z
Weekly Options:YES

Some of the basic fundamentals to keep in mind when you are considering trading the Silver for this matter:
1. Research supply side in major silver producing countries like Mexico, China, and Peru.
2. Follow both the industrial demand and investment demand for silver
3. Focus in macroeconomics not microeconomics
4. Correlation to gold
5. Correlation to US Dollar prices
6. Inflationary prospects
7. Geopolitical Stability
8. U.S. Fiscal and Monetary Stability

Our brokers here at Cannon will be happy to chat about the silver market, other metals, other futures, options, futures spreads and much more! Feel free to contact us at any time.

3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

Date Reports Expiration & Notice Dates
03/01
Fri
7:30 AM CST - Personal Income & Spending(Dec)
7:30 AM CST - Personal Income & Spending(Jan)
9:00 AM CST - Construction Spending(Jan)
9:00 AM CST - ISM Index(Feb)
9:00 AM CST - Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment-Final(Feb)
2:00 PM CST - Cotton System(& Annual)
2:00 PM CST - Fats & Oils(& Annual)
2:00 PM CST - Grain Crushings(& Annual)
FN: Mar Black Sea Wheat(CME)
Mar Orange Juice(ICE)
Mar Sugar-11(ICE)
Mar Live Cattle Options(CME)
Apr Cocoa Options(ICE)
03/04
Mon
9:00 AM CST - Construction Spending(Dec)

 
 
FN: Mar RBOB & ULSD(NYM)
 
 
 
03/05
Tue
9:00 AM CST - ISM Non-Manufacturing Index(Feb)
9:00 AM CST - New Home Sales(Dec)
3:30 PM CST - API Energy Stocks
 

 
 
 
03/06
Wed
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Index
7:15 AM CST - ADP Employment Change(Feb)
7:30 AM CST - Trade Balance(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - Factory Orders(Jan)
9:30 AM CST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
1:00 PM CST - Fed's Beige Book(Mar)
2:00 PM CST - Dairy Products Sales

 
 
 
03/07
Thu
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CST - Productivity-Rev(Q4)
7:30 AM CST - Trade Balance(Jan)
9:30 AM CST - EIA Natural Gas Report
2:00 PM CST - Consumer Credit(Jan)
3:30 PM CST - Money Supply
LT: Mar Nikkei(CME)
Mar Cotton(NYM)
Mar Nikkei Options(CME)
03/08
Fri
7:30 AM CST - Ave Workweek & Hourly Earnings(Feb)
7:30 AM CST - Nonfarm Payrolls(Feb)
7:30 AM CST - Unemployment Rate(Feb)
11:00 AM CST - WADSE Report & Crop Production
LT: Mar Canadian Dollar Options(CME)
Mar Currencies Options(CME)
Mar MX Peso Options(CME)
Mar US Dollar Index Options(ICE)
Apr Coffee Options(ICE)
03/11
Mon
9:00 AM CDT - Business Inventories(Dec)
 
 
 
LT: Mar Orange Juice(ICE)
 
 
 
03/12
Tue
7:30 AM CDT - Core CPI & CPI(Feb)
1:00 PM CDT - Treasury Budget(Feb)
3:30 PM CDT - API Energy Stocks
 

 
 
 
03/13
Wed
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Index
7:30 AM CDT - Core PPI & PPI(Feb)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales

 
 
 
03/14
Thu
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CDT - Export(ex-ag) & Import(ex-oil) Prices(Feb)
7:30 AM CDT - Retail Sales(Feb)
7:30 AM CDT - Retail Sales Ex-Auto(Feb)
9:00 AM CDT - Business Inventories(Jan)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Natural Gas Inventories
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply
LT: Mar Canola(CBT)
Mar Wheat(CBT)
Mar Corn(CBT)
Mar Oats(CBT)
Mar Rough Rice(CBT)
Mar Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil(CBT)
Mar Cocoa(ICE)
Mar S&P 500(CME)
Mar S&P 500 Options(CME)
FN=First Notice, OE=Option Expiration, LT=Last Trade

Disclaimer: This calendar is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Moore Research Center, Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. It is meant as an alert to events that may affect trading strategies and is not necessarily complete. The release dates for certain economic reports may have been rescheduled.

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!

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