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Light at the End of the Tunnel?

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker:

As we transition into 2021, the overriding impact on the global economy and commodity prices remains the world-wide pandemic. Rising post-holiday infection figures in the U.S. from California to Rhode Island, in Europe, particularly the U.K., a return of the virus in China, and a newly discovered more contagious variant are all pointing to seeing January as the worst month in this now year-long scourge. Yet, a wide range of markets have been steadfast over the last 3-4 months in their ability to look past this crisis and price in demand improvement. Grains, metals, energies, gasoline, softs all have staged heady rallies. Soybeans are at 6-year highs. Crude oil traded through $50/barrel today, platinum trading above $1,100/ounce breached 4-year highs. Likely, as new and existing vaccines are made available and administered, as the holiday infection surge passes and hospital capacities come down, as we move toward the herd immunity that health officials have explained, the markets will take stock of the light at the end of the tunnel and assess these gains. Likely as well, overall price volatility across most if not all commodity asset classes will remain for the new year.