4 Years in the Making
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
How Much will the FOMC Cut rates tomorrow? .25 or .50 basis points from 5.25/5.5 % ?
As of the issuance of this Blog Post. The September Fed Funds futures contract is reflecting a 63% probability of a .50 basis point cut and 37% probability of a .25 basis cut.
It is my view, not Cannon Trading company’s ,that a .25 basis rate cut would disappoint the Equity index markets as the recent rally had caught steam at every turn when the possibility of .50 rate cut was mentioned by FOMC governors during public speeches and the most recent economic data revealing a softening of economic data and loosening of a previously tight labor market . ( You may recall on August 21st the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report that jobs growth had been overstated by more than 800,000 souls between 3/23 and 3/24?) Where was the ES trading at the close of business on that day? 5641.50 , we are still in that wheelhouse. A .50 basis point cut may continue the current rally. 1:00 pm EDT , the first rate cut in 4 years will be here, are you ready?
Tomorrow: in addition to Rates and Powell Presser; you will also get FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (released only 4 times a year during rate announcements)
Here is a sample of the summary of Economic events from the June ’24 rate decision meeting, not to be confused with the FOMC Minutes. https://Https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20240612.pdf
Daily Levels for September 18, 2024
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.