Trading Levels and Reports for January 29, 2013

Mon, 28 Jan 2013 2:20 AM EST***Note: All Times are in New York/Eastern Time
***Reminder: For a complete list of earnings, conf calls and events please see the Calendar tab in the TTN platform-As global markets trade at multi-year highs, this week will be heavy in terms of US and European corporate earnings. Notable US firms due to report include Aetna, Amazon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Colgate, Corning, Dow Chemical, Exxon, Facebook, Ford, Ingersoll-Rand, Mastercard, Merck, Potash, Pfizer, Under Armour, UPS, Whirlpool, Wynn Resorts and Yahoo. European firms seen reporting include Astrazeneca, BBVA, British Sky, BT Group, Deutsche Bank, Diageo, Electrolux, Ericsson, Fiat, H&M, Infineon, LVMH, Philips, Roche, Royal Dutch Shell and Santander.

-In terms of US macro events, this week’s Fed meeting (Jan 29-30) is expected to be the focus, along with Jan non-farm payrolls and the initial print for Q4 GDP.

-European short-term interest rates (euribor), ECB lending operations and interest rate differentials are expected to be in focus, after yields rose sharply on Friday’s session, as the ECB said that banks would repay €137.2B in 3-year loans this week. Last week, Germany’s 2-yr bond yields hit multi-month highs. European data releases for the week include final manufacturing PMIs, German Jan unemployment, preliminary Q4 GDP from Spain and Belgium, Dec retail sales, Jan confidence figures and prelim Jan CPI data from Germany and the euro zone.

-In terms of euro zone fixed income, debt sales by Germany and Italy will dominate this week’s supply.

-On the issue of currency wars, China PBoC Vice Gov Yi Gang called for better communication and coordination on foreign exchange among the G20 countries. Amid the comments, China set the yuan weaker for the 3rd consecutive session. Also, on Monday’s Asian session sharp declines were seen for the Singapore Dollar, South Korean Won, Taiwan dollar and Thai Baht. Japan PM Abe advisor Takenaka said that it is not fair to say that the yen has weakened too much, as he noted a USD/JPY rate of ¥95 would be “appropriate.” Bank of Korea Gov Kim said he believed that the monetary actions taken by Japan were done in a manner which was too hasty. An unnamed ECB official was quoted at Davos as stating that the central bank was “not very happy” with moves toward competitive devaluations.

Mon, Jan 28th
US: Durable Goods, Capital Goods, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed
Earnings: Before open: BIIB, CAT, ROP; After close: BMC, CE, CR, IDTI, ILMN, IRF, STLD, STX, VMW, YHOO, ZION
Asia: Chinese Leading Index, Thailand Coincident Index, Thailand Leading Index
Earnings: BYD, China State Construction, Baoshan Iron & Steel, KDDI
Europe: Spanish Mortgages, Eurozone M3, Italian Consumer Confidence, Italian Hourly Wages, German Retail Sales, German Import Price Index; Italy to sell bonds; IMF heads to Spain for 2nd report on banking reform
Earnings: Ryanair, Mitie

Tues, Jan 29th
US: Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence
Earnings: Before open: AKS, AMG, ASH, BTU, CIT, DHI, DHR, EMC, F, GLW, HOG, IP, ITW, JBLU, LLY, LXK, NUE, PII, PFE, TROW, TYC, VLO, WDR, X; After close: ACE, AJG, AMZN, BRCM, BXP, FSL, PLT, WBSN
Asia: Japanese Small Business Confidence, Japanese Retail Trade, Japanese Large Retailers Sales; India RBI expected to cut rate 25bps
Earnings: Yahoo! Japan, FujiFilm, Komatsu
Europe: German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, French Consumer Confidence Indicator, Spanish Retail Sales
Earnings: Luxottica, Sandvik, British Land, Aquarius Platinum

Wed, Jan 30th
US: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, GDP, Personal Consumption, GDP Price Index, Core PCE, FOMC Rate Decision
Earnings: Before open: ABBV, ABFS, ADT, BA, BAH, Chrysler, CVLT, HCBK, HNT, LLL, MAN, MPC, NOC, PJC, PSX, Roche, SO, TCB, VLY; After close: AMP, AVB, CDNS, COP, CTXS, DOX, FB, FTNT, ISIL, JDSU, MUR, NXPI, QCOM, SWKS
Asia: HK Money Supply, Japanese Foreign Buying, Japanese IP, Japanese Labor Cash Earnings, Japanese Vehicle Production
Earnings: Cannon, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Nomura Research, Nintendo, NT Docomo
Europe: Spanish GDP, Italian Economic Sentiment, Italian Business Confidence, British Money Supply, British Mortgage Approvals, British Net Lending, British Consumer Credit, Eurozone Economic Confidence, Eurozone Business Climate Indicator, Eurozone Industrial Confidence, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Eurozone Services Confidence, British Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, Italy to sell bonds
EU Speakers: ECB’s Weidmann. Italy’s Monti
Earnings: Fiat, H&M, Nordea Bank, Roche, Scania, Swedbank

Thurs, Jan 31st
US: Challenger Job Cuts, Employment Cost Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, PCE Core, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, NAPM Milawaukee, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Hagel Senate confirmation hearing
Earnings: Before open: ADS, AET, AIT, AN, BX, CAM, CL, CNX, COCO, CRS, D, DNKN, DOW, DST, ENR, ERIC, HSY, Infineon, ITG, IVZ, LSTR, LVMH, MA, MJN, MO, NDAQ, OXY, PHM, PCAR, POT, R, RGS, Santander, SHW, TEN, TLAB, TMO, TWC, UA, UPS, VIAb, WHR, ZMH; After close: BCR, BRKS, CAVM, CB, ELX, GDOT, MTW, N, NATI, PKI, PMCS
Asia: Japanese Housing Starts, Japanese Construction Orders, HK Retail Sales, Japanese Jobless Rate, Chinese Manufacturing PMI, Japanese Official Reserve Assets
Earnings: Cosco, Samsung Heavy, Konica Minolta, Fuji Electric, NEC, Kyocera, Kawasaki Heavy, Honda, Rioch, Mizuho Financial, Nomura Holdings, Softbank
Europe: British Nationwide House Prices, French Producer Prices, French Consumer Spending, Spanish CPI, German Unemployment Rate, Italian PPI, Eurozone CPI Estimate, German CPI, Spanish Current Account, Spanish Total Housing Permits
Earnings: Atlas Copco, Astrazeneca, BskyB, Deutsche Bank, Diageo, LVMH, Novo Nordisk, Royal Dutch Shell, TeliaSonera, Vedanta Resources

Fri, Feb 1st
US: US DOL Establishment Employment Survey Annual Revisions, Change in Nonfarm payrolls, Change in Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Avg Hour Earning, Avg, Weekly Hours All Employees, Change in Household Employment, Underemployment Rate, Markit US PMI Final, U of Michigan Confidence, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Price Paid, Total Vehicle Sales, Domestic Vehicle Sales
Earnings: Before open: Auto companies Jan sales; AON, BEAM, BEN, BT, CVX, IR, LEA, LM, LYB, MAT, MRK, NOV, NWL, TDW, TSN, XOM; After close:
Asia: Japanese Vehicle Sales, Thailand Foreign Reserves
Earnings: Toyota, Panasonic, Mitsubishi, Singapore Airlines
Europe: Spanish January Manufacturing PMI, Italian PMI, French PMI, German PMI, Eurozone PMI, Greek PMI, Italian Unemployment Rate, British PMI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Italian Budget Balance, Italian New Car Registrations
Earnings: BT Group, Electrolux, Imperial Tobacco

**In the News***
EU
– (EU) ECB’s Coene: Higher than expected LTRO payments could bring down EMU yield spreads further; Euro’s level right now is not a problem but may become dangerous; Sees no need for additional monetary easing at the moment; Expects some upside in European and Belgian economies; Ideally, ECB’s OMT bond buying program would never be used so as to avoid risk of diminished commitment to austerity
-(EU) ECB official at Davos: ECB is “not very happy” with a step toward competitive devaluations, which should be discussed by G20 at the meeting next month – financial press
-(EU) EU Trade Chief De Gucht: would be good if the euro got a little bit lower; euro appreciation is not good for exports; Cannot see a scenario in which Europe would intervene in the Forex market.
-(EU) Moody’s: Bank payment of LTROs is positive for money funds
-(EU) French Fin Min Moscovici: Reiterates view that reviving growth is a priority in the next 6 months; Germany can do more to support domestic demand – financial pres
-(EU) German chancellor Merkel: Does not agree with PM Rajoy calling for looser fiscal spending by some of the wealthier euro area nations – financial press
-Sweden PM Reinfeldt: Not in favor of Germany Chancellor Merkel’s suggestion to improve competitiveness, because it would give more national powers to the EU – Handelsblatt
– (EU) Italy Fin Min Grilli: LTRO repayments a good sign, Italy still faces problems of restoring credit channels, Europe real economy will take longer to recover – Davos

France
-(FR) FRANCE DEC NET CHANGE JOBSEEKERS: +0.3K V +25.0KE; TOTAL JOBSEEKERS: 3.132M V 3.15ME

Germany
– (DE) Bundesbank’s Dombret: No signs of panic or bubble in Germany’s real estate market – German press

Greece
– (GR) Executive board of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will hold a call today to confirm the disbursement of Greece’s Jan €9.2B bailout tranche – ekathimerini; €7.2B of the funds will go to bank recapitalization.
-(CY) Fitch lowers Cyprus sovereign rating two notches to B from BB-; outlook Negative
-(CY) Cyprus govt source: Delay in EU bailout is politically related to German elections – financial press
-(CY) EU’s Rehn: Reiterates that writing down Cyprus sovereign debt is not being considered, bank depositors will not see any losses in a potential rescue program

Ireland
-(IE) Ireland Dep PM Gilmore cautions failure to reach ECB debt deal catastrohpic for Ireland – Irish press; ECB rejected Ireland’s preferred plans to reschedule part of the bank debt according to EU sources.

Italy
-Banca Monte Paschi: Bank of Italy approves €3.9B in bailout bonds to Monte Paschi de Siena

Spain
-(EU) Spain PM Rajoy: Spain’s 2012 budget deficit fell substantially

UK
-(UK) UK BoE Gov-elect Mark Carney places growth as top priority, more ‘tolerable’ on inflation – Telegraph
-(UK) Some Treasury officials are said to favor having the FSA ease its probe into banks selling of certain interest rate swaps – London Telegraph
-(UK) According to data from Ernst & Young, profit warnings in Q4 totaled 86, +26% – London Telegraph
-(UK) UK JAN HOMETRACK HOUSING SURVEY M/M: FLAT V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.3% PRIOR

US
-(US) WSJ’s Hilsenrath: Fed likely to maintain accommodative policies at this week’s meeting; Not all officials to agree with the stance amid improving conditions – financial press; Many Fed officials have been encouraged by signs of an improving economic outlook
-(US) NABE survey: 50% of corporate economists forecasts 2013 GDP at 2.1% or better – financial press

M&A
-3i [III.UK]: Seeking to acquire air traffic controller NATS – Times
-Diageo [DGE.UK]: United Spirits deal to be delayed until Q2 – British press
-Nexen [NXY]: CNOOC Limited and Nexen Inc. have mutually agreed to extend the “Outside Date” of the Arrangement Agreement by 30 days to March 2, 2013.

Asia
-(CN) CHINA DEC INDUSTRIAL PROFITS YTD Y/Y: 5.3% V 3.0% PRIOR (4th consecutive increase) – update
– (CN) RBS chief China economist: China industrial profits data confirm that economic growth is picking up and pressure on output prices is diminishing – financial press
– (CN) China PBoC Vice Gov: Sees China 2013 GDP at 8%, 2013 inflation at 3% – financial
-(CN) PBoC Dep Gov Yi Gang: Calls for better communication and coordination on foreign exchange among the G20; USD/CNY currently at equilibrium levels
press
-(CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) official 2013 GDP target is 8.4% – financial press citing CASS annual outlook; Sees 2013 CPI at 3.5%; Exports at 8.3%.
– (CN) China Sovereign Wealth Fund (CIC) chief Lou Jiwei: China GDP can grow faster than 8% in 2013; Economy supports large part of global demand – financial press
– (CN) China govt has not yet decided on expanding property tax trial – China press
-(CN) Moody’s: China regional and local govts slowing revnue growth is credit negative for banks; PBoC’s liquidity operations credit positive for banks
-(CN) China National Bureau of Stats: Urbanization to become an important engine of China’s growth – China Daily
-USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.2818 v 6.2205 prior close (weaker setting for 3rd consecutive session)
-(CN) China PBoC gauges demand for 7-day reverse repos, 28- and 91-day repos – financial press
– USD/JPY: (JP) Japan PM Abe’s advisor Takenaka: Not fair to say JPY currency has weakened too much; Reiterates that correction from excessive strength has just started with ¥95 FX level would be “appropriate”
-(JP) Japan gov’t, ruling parties approve FY13 ¥92.6T budget proposal (vs FY12 ¥92.9T initial budget) – Nikkei News
-(JP) Japan cabinet releases FY13 updated forecasts: Sees FY13/14 Real GDP at 2.5%, CPI at 0.5% – financial press; Sees FY12/13 Real GDP at 1.0%
-(JP) Japan govt plans to sell inflation-linked bonds in FY13 – financial press