Volatile Markets – Be Careful!! Grains Weather Updates…. 2.09.2018

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Dryness Extensive Across Southern Plains Wheat Belt

Moisture levels have remained very low across the majority of the hard red wheat belt in the central Plains throughout the winter, with moderate drought now widespread across eastern Colorado into central Oklahoma, and severe to extreme drought located in southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and much of central and northwestern Texas (see map below).

The outlook for the next few weeks shows an upturn in moisture across the northern Plains, with Colorado and Nebraska likely to see some notable improvements in moisture in the form of snowfall. Meanwhile, moisture receipts will likely remain below normal across south central Kansas into west central Oklahoma and northwestern Texas. While moisture needs this time of year are very low for wheat as it remains in dormancy, an upturn in moisture will be critical for these areas once it emerges from dormancy.

However, a drier pattern is expected to continue across the majority of the region in March, which will likely result in some significant stress as spring crop growth resumes. An upturn in rains is possible across the heart of the hard red wheat belt in April, though, which should begin to improve moisture supplies and crop conditions. The rains will be critical to prevent substantial yield reductions for the wheat crop.

By: Don Keeney
Senior Ag Meteorologist
Radiant Solutions  Read More with charts and other data at: http://pages.cmegroup.com/index.php/email/emailWebview

Continue reading “Volatile Markets – Be Careful!! Grains Weather Updates…. 2.09.2018”

CME Raises Margins on Stock Indices 2.08.2018

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With the recent volatility the CME have raised some of the overnight margins for stock index futures.

Most of our clients enjoy $500 daytrading margins for the contracts below, depending on the platform and in rare cases market conditions. Few of the trading platforms will use % of overnight margins and/or  if you plan on holding positions more than intraday than note below:

ES was $5,555 –> now $6,105

NQ, $5,720 –> $6,380

YM, $4,620 –> $5,280

RTY, $3,245 –> $3,630

NKD, $4,565 –> $5,280

BE CAREFUL!! THESE ARE NOT “REGULAR OR NORMAL TIMES”

Plan your trade, trade your plan and ALWAYS try to asses the risk/ reward ratio you are about to trade.

Continue reading “CME Raises Margins on Stock Indices 2.08.2018”

Stock Index Bounce Back 3.5% in Volatile Trading! 2.07.2018

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Market Movers Video
Looking ahead to the February 8 Crop Report

Industry experts Dave Hightower, Founding Principal of The Hightower Report, and Dan Basse, President of AgResource Company, preview the February 8 USDA report discussing corn and soybean yields in advance of its publication.

watch video

On a different note and due to the crazy/historical volatility we are witnessing in stock indices, please read what I wrote yesterday once more:

The last few days volatility reminds me of 2008 days….I am not implying that this is what will happen but as far as volatility, risk and sharp market moves – Make sure you are aware and understand the environment we are in. This is NOT the same market personality from the past few months.

My advice when volatility picks up like this is: reduce trading size. Widen your “bands” understand what risk you are willing to take and trade accordingly.

Another thing to keep in mind is: LIMIT MOVES.

I recommend taking a few minutes and reading more about it ( especially if you trading stock indices) at:

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/faq-sp-500-price-limits.html

Continue reading “Stock Index Bounce Back 3.5% in Volatile Trading! 2.07.2018”

Monthly Non Farm Payroll Report Tomorrow Morning! 2.02.2018

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Earnings Season is midway and we are noticing some good volatility
in Stock Index Futures.

Bitcoin futures went down as much as 15% today before bouncing and are now down approx. 8%

Monthly unemployment report tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM CST

This is a market moving report and will impact bonds, stocks, metals, currencies and other markets.

Daily chart of the US 30 year bonds market for your review below:

Daily chart of the US 30 year bonds market for review

Continue reading “Monthly Non Farm Payroll Report Tomorrow Morning! 2.02.2018”

Grain Options Volatility Video! 2.01.2018

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Front month for crude oil and Natural gas is March.

Front month for gold is now April.

Wishing all of you  EXCELLENT trading in February!

La Niña: Grain Options’ Implied Volatility Languishes

By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Video Highlights
  • Corn, Soybean options’ implied volatility languishes despite La Niña
  • La Niña can elevate grain volatility, has historically been bearish

Rise of non-U.S. grain producers could be limiting volatility.

Continue reading “Grain Options Volatility Video! 2.01.2018”

Trading Resources! 1.31.2018

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Front month for crude oil and Natural gas is March.

Front month for gold is now April.

Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month. I have seen the markets make some large moves on last/first trading days of the months and my assumption is that large funds either exit/ enter/close positions for different reasons on these days.

Take notes and keep a journal!! 

Some good resources for you to browse:

Day trading crude oil article: https://www.cannontrading.com/community/day-trading-crude-oil-futures

Trading Calendar: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/futures-trading-calendar

Chart Patterns: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/recognizing-charts-patterns

Continue reading “Trading Resources! 1.31.2018”

Futures Options 101 1-30-2018

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Front month for crude oil and Natural gas is March.

Front month for gold is now April.

Market Strategies using options

1. Bullish Market Strategies

Futures Options Trading
Spread Strategy
Description Reason to Use When to Use
Buy a call Strongest bullish option position Loss limited to premium Undervalued option with volatility increasing
Sell a put Neutral bullish option position Profit limited to debt Small debit, bullish market
Vertical Bull Calls Buy call, sell call of higher strike price Loss limited to debt Small debit, bullish market
Vertical Bull Puts Buy put, sell put of higher strike price Loss limited to price difference Large credit, bullish market

2. Bearish Market Strategies

Futures Options Trading
Spread Strategy
Description Reason to Use When to Use
Buy a put Strongest bearish option position Loss limited to premium Undervalued option with volatility increasing
Sell a call Neutral bearish option position Profit limited to premium Option overvalued, market flat, bearish
Vertical Bear Calls Buy at the money put, sell out of the money put Loss limited to debt Small debit, bearish market
Vertical Bear Puts Sell call, buy call of higher strike price Loss limited to stroke price difference minus credit Large credit, bearish market

Continue reading “Futures Options 101 1-30-2018”

Dr. Copper!! 1.26.2018

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Is Resurgent Dr. Copper About to Relapse?
By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Highlights
  • Copper on the uptrend after recovering from 2011-2015 slump
  • Top importer China’s return to economic growth is supportive
  • Options signaling underlying concerns over China, surging U.S. equities
  • China has begun tightening credit growth and has high levels of debt

Continue reading “Dr. Copper!! 1.26.2018”

Futures Markets are Moving!! & Support and Resistance Levels 1.25.2018

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Voted #1 Blog and #1 Brokerage Services on  TraderPlanet   for 2016!!

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Big moves across the board this week. Metals had a small move to the downside yesterday and BIG move higher today.

Crude and natural gas big moves…

Financials been moving both up and down….

Notice a correlation between bitcoin and gold? Perhaps inverse correlation?

The bottom line is that the markets are moving. Even stock indices had a small downside move today for a change.

Make sure you are ready for a different type of trading environment with higher volatility.

We are here for you to bounce ideas off, feedback, questions and more!

+ 310 859 9572

Plan your trade, trade your plan!

Continue reading “Futures Markets are Moving!! & Support and Resistance Levels 1.25.2018”

Natural Gas Chart 1.24.2018

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Today’s powerful move in the Natural gas market ( primarily in the front month, February) served as a good reminder that many of the physical commodities ( and some of the financial ones as well)  have limit up and limit down moves. When a limit up/down move happens, trading halts for a certain amount of time or until there is a balance between sellers and buyers and we will be happy to share more and explain to you if interested via email or one on one conversation.

the short version of limit up move is: There are only buyers and no sellers at current price levels. The even shorter version is that this can be a very dangerous event to your financial, mental and emotional well being if you are on the wrong side…..

Daily chart of the Natural Gas market for your review below:

Natural Gas (Globex), Equalized Active Daily Continuation Chart

If you like to get a free trial of the indicators/ ALGOS I circled in the chart above, visit:

https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/intraday-futures-trading-signals

Continue reading “Natural Gas Chart 1.24.2018”