Author: Ilan

4 Years in the Making

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

How Much will the FOMC Cut rates tomorrow? .25 or .50 basis points from 5.25/5.5 % ?

As of the issuance of this Blog Post. The September Fed Funds futures contract is reflecting a 63% probability of a .50 basis point cut and 37% probability of a .25 basis cut.

It is my view, not Cannon Trading company’s ,that a .25 basis rate cut would disappoint the Equity index markets as the recent rally had caught steam at every turn when the possibility of .50 rate cut was mentioned by FOMC governors during public speeches and the most recent economic data revealing a softening of economic data and loosening of a previously tight labor market . ( You may recall on August 21st the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report that jobs growth had been overstated by more than 800,000 souls between 3/23 and 3/24?) Where was the ES trading at the close of business on that day? 5641.50 , we are still in that wheelhouse. A .50 basis point cut may continue the current rally. 1:00 pm EDT , the first rate cut in 4 years will be here, are you ready?

Tomorrow: in addition to Rates and Powell Presser; you will also get FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (released only 4 times a year during rate announcements)

Here is a sample of the summary of Economic events from the June ’24 rate decision meeting, not to be confused with the FOMC Minutes.  https://Https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20240612.pdf

Daily Levels for September 18, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Busy week ahead! FOMC, contract rollover and more. Make it a solid, disciplined trading week!

Friday, Sept. 20th is Last Trading Day for September stock index futures contracts, i.e., the E-mini S&P, E-mini NASDAQ, E-mini Dow Jones and their Micro relatives. These futures contracts will halt trading at 8:30 A.M., Central Time and are cash settled, meaning any remaining open positions will be offset/settled using a to-be-determined settlement price. It is recommended that all new positions be placed in the December ’24 contracts.

Volume in the September ‘24 contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration next Friday, September 20.

Trading levels on our blog will switch to the December contract tomorrow!

See below a screen shot of volume and open interest on the Mini SP contract for example:

How to roll over Chart and DOM on E-Futures

Daily Levels for September 17, 2024

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1208

Fed Rate Decision, Index Contract rollover, within a somewhat active Data week.

Light Earnings (185 companies) Week:

• Gen Mills, Fedex and Lennar, headline

Fed Rate Decision Wednesday. 1:00PM Central with Q and A to follow @ 1:30 PM central.

Somewhat Active Data week:

• Mon. NY Empire State Index,
• Tues. Retail Sales, RedBook, Industrial Production
• Wed. Bldg Permits, Housing Starts, Fed Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections
• Thu. Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing, Existing Home Sales
• Fri. No news is good news?

Currencies Last Trading Day & Stock Index rollover

Monday, September 16th is Last Trading Day for all currency futures contracts, except the Canadian Dollar (Last Trading Day for the Canadian Dollar is Tuesday, September 14th). Currency futures contracts are DELIVERABLE contracts. You need to exit all long and short open positions or be required to deliver or take delivery of the ACTUAL NOMINAL VALUE of the respective futures contract, i.e. $12,500 Euros, or $12,500,000 Japanese Yen. DO NOT put your account is this position. Exit all September currency futures. Start trading currency futures with the December futures contracts.

Friday, Sept. 20th is Last Trading Day for September stock index futures contracts, i.e., the E-mini S&P, E-mini NASDAQ, E-mini Dow Jones and their Micro relatives. These futures contracts will halt trading at 8:30 A.M., Central Time and are cash settled, meaning any remaining open positions will be offset/settled using a to-be-determined settlement price. It is recommended that all new positions be placed in the December ’24 contracts as of Sunday’s opening. Volume in the September ‘24 contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration next Friday, September 20.

How to Rollover on the E-Futures Platform video below

• • Hot Market of the Week – December Gold

  Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

  FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

  December Gold

   

  December gold has resumed its rally into new highs. This has the chart aim at its third upside PriceCount objective to the 2620 area. It would be normal to get a near term reaction int the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least, upon satisfying the count. The low percentage fourth target to 3325 is not shown here for presentation purposes.

   

  PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been, but where we might be going next!

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com 

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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Bitcoin Futures

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

Typically, if you’re interested in Bitcoin, it’s for two reasons:

One is that you want to convert your dollars to Bitcoin so that you can buy products and services with it, because there’s no administrator involved in the transaction like a bank or credit card company, or a PayPal or Zelle-type of entity.  That’s why it’s called a decentralized currency: only the two sides of the transaction can see it.

But unlike a currency-backed transaction – like U.S. dollar transactions – Bitcoin transactions don’t come with legal protection and they’re typically not reversible, which makes them susceptible to scams.  And if or when you convert your Bitcoin back to U.S. dollars, you have to report capital gains and losses.

The fact is cash – and in particular the U.S. dollar – is still king.  In the entire world, the dollar is currently involved in almost 60% of all transactions – in commerce, business and in trading.  That’s compared to the next most used currency, the Euro at ±13%.  In third place is the Japanese yen at ±5%.  All the other currencies in the world, including such notables as the Swiss Franc, British pound, Chinese yuan and to a miniscule degree Bitcoin – they’re all little tiny slivers to the financial transaction pie.  That’s why people invest with U.S. dollars.

This brings me to the other reason people are interested in Bitcoin: it’s an asset that moves up and down in price and that movement can be an opportunity to increase the value of your Bitcoin you hold.  The unfortunate shortcoming for Bitcoin investors however, is that you’re limited only to profiting from buying Bitcoin low and selling high – and converting your Bitcoin back to dollars to realize any profit.

There’s a much better alternative to invest in Bitcoin.  For people looking to profit from Bitcoin price movement: consider trading the price movement you see in Bitcoin every day, yet never have to actually be in Bitcoin, but rather a derivative of it.  Trade an asset that moves in sync with Bitcoin, is valued and traded in U.S. dollars and is listed on the largest financial derivatives exchange in the world.

The exchange I’m talking about is the CME Group, and the asset – there are actually three assets: the Bitcoin futures contract, the Micro Bitcoin futures contract and the newest Bitcoin Friday futures contract (sized at 1/50 of a Bitcoin like the Micro Bitcoin and cash-settled every Friday).

These three assets trade on the CME where all participants see the same prices and quotes and you enjoy the price discovery of a transparent futures contract.  Of course, as a futures contract you can trade on the long and short side of the market.

If you’re a trader – in stocks, mutual funds, real estate, or other commodity futures such as stock indexes, precious metals, energies, grains, etc. and you’re looking to diversify your assets into digital currency and Bitcoin specifically, look into Bitcoin futures and trade with assurance in the asset.

Trade Micro Bitcoin with real-time price and DEMO money INSTANTLY

Daily Levels for September 13, 2024

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Interesting action to say the least following CPI this morning.

Indices, energies and metals sold off and then made a V type reversal, mostly with stock indices, NASDAQ and SP leading the way – ES and NQ.

See a 30 minute chart from today below.

As far as tomorrow:

US weekly jobless claims will be released at 7:30 am CT Thursday morning, initial claims are expected at 225,000, down -2,000 from the prior week.

US August producer price indices (PPI) will be released Thursday morning at 7:30 am CT, analysts expect final demand PPI +0.2% month over month, and expect the core PPI up +0.2% compared to the previous month.

ECB Press conference at 7:45 AM Central time.

Natural gas inventories at 9:30 Am central

Daily Levels for September 12, 2024

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Movers and shakers!

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Oil took a $2.40 nosedive when OPEC announced a smaller than expected demand growth forecast for 2025. Flirting with the low end of the 25 month old range, October crude held it’s ground around $66.00/bbl , a mere dollar from the springtime 2023 lows.

Tropical Storm Francine landfall, Basel III Endgame, and tomorrows big number (hint, CPI)

Tonight: Debate for the Presidency 8 p.m. Central.

Today’s News:

Updated: September 10, 2024 5:30 am

**NFIB August US small business optimism index: 91.2 ; prior month 93.7

Updated: September 10, 2024 5:51 am

Chinese customs data released Tuesday showed they imported a record 12.14 mln mt of Soybeans during August 2024, up +29% over August 2023 imports. January through August 2024 soy imports are 70.48 mln mt, up +2.8% over the same period in 2023.

Updated: September 10, 2024 7:01 am

**OPEC cut their 2024 worldwide crude oil demand growth forecast to 2.03 mln bpd from the previous 2.11 mln bpd

Updated: September 10, 2024 7:55 am

Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +6.5% in the first week of September 2024 vs September 2023

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +6.5% in the week ending September 7 vs yr ago week

Updated: September 10, 2024 9:21 am

*Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Bank Supervision Barr Tuesday said he’ll recommend regulators re-propose “Basel endgame” and worldwide systemically important bank surcharge capital rules. Seeks to exempt banks under $250 billion in assets from most new requirements, and update for changes to inflation and economic growth

Updated: September 10, 2024 12:26 pm

Shell on Tuesday said they’ve shuttered oil production at their Perdido, Aug er and Enchilada/Salsa platforms in the Gulf of Mexico due to downstream impacts from TS Francine

Updated: September 10, 2024 12:49 pm

On Tuesday, the Port of New Orleans said terminal operations will be shuttered as tropical storm Francine approaches the Louisiana coast, and following damage assessments, they expect operations to resume on Sept 12th.

Updated: September 10, 2024 12:51 pm

Energy industry sources say Exxon Mobil ahead of the tropical storm is reducing their Baton Rouge refinery production, but plans to operate the facility with minimum staff levels.

Watch Tomorrow’s Movers and Shakers:

CPI Consumer Price Index @ 7:30 am CDT.

Consensus Outlook

Overall prices are expected to rise 0.2 percent in August that would match the as-expected 0.2 percent rise in July. Core prices also increased an as-expected 0.2 percent in July with August’s consensus also at 0.2 percent. Annual rates, which in July were 2.9 percent overall and 3.2 percent for the core (both 1 tenth lower than June), are expected at 2.6 and 3.2 percent, respectively.

Earnings: very quiet, only 22 firms reporting

Daily Levels for September 11, 2024

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Reports for the week ahead below. Make it a solid, disciplined trading week!

Daily Levels for September 10, 2024

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1207

• • Hot Market of the Week – October Feeders

  Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

  FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

  October Feeder Cattle

   

  October Feeder Cattle completed its first downside PriceCount objective last month and corrected. IF the chart can resume its break into new sustained lows, the second count would project a possible slide to the 223.94 area.

   

  PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been, but where we might be going next!

Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?

Yes Select

No Select

Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com 

---

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.