Market on Alert: NFP Report Tomorrow – Key Levels and Feeder Cattle Outlook

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Monthly unemployment numbers also known as NFP – Non Farm Payrolls will be out tomorrow at 730 Am Central time.

This is a market moving even which impacts almost all futures, starting with indices, rates, metals, currencies, energies and more.

I personally like to be out of any day trade positions right before the report and resume a few minutes after as the bid and ask can get wide and price action is at times too wild for my taste….

Levels for tomorrow along with Feeders Cattle Outlook below.

 

 

 

 

 

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Daily Levels for September 6, 2024

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October Feeder Cattle

 

October Feeder Cattle completed its first downside PriceCount objective last month and corrected. IF the chart can resume its break into new sustained lows, the second count would project a possible slide to the 223.94 area.

 

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

 

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Market Movers: Key Updates from Mortgage Data to Factory Orders

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Movers and shakers!

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Today’s News:

US MBA Mortgage Market Headline Recap (w/e 8/30)

 

**US MBA Mortgage Market Index w/e 8/30: 230.5 vs prior week 226.9, +1.6%

**US MBA Mortgage Purchase Index w/e 8/30: 136.1 vs prior week 131.8, +3.3%

**US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 8/30: 751.4 vs prior week 753.8, -0.3%

Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap

 

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +5.2% in the first four weeks of August 2024 vs August 2023

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +6.3% in the week ending August 31 vs yr ago week

Updated: September 4, 2024 9:01 am

**US July 2024 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS): 7.673 mln; prior month 8.20 mln

 

 

US Factory Orders and Revised Durable Goods Headline Recap

 

**US July Factory Orders: +5.0%; expected +4.4%

**US July Factory Orders ex-Defense:+5.1%

**US July Factory Orders ex-Trans: +0.4%

**US July revised Durable Goods: +9.8%; Advanced +9.9%

revised to 81.1 from 78.2

Fed Bostic: No panic among my business contacts but describe an economy and labor market losing momentum

Fed Bostic: Wage growth pulling back to level more conductive to price stability

 

**Linn & Associates updated their soybean production forecast today, pegging it at 4.585 billion bushels on a yield of 53.15 bpa, according to trade sources. Their estimate would imply record-high yields and output, and would compare to USDA August 2024 estimates of 4.589 billion bushels. Upcoming WASDE Sept 12th

**Linn & Associates updated their corn production forecast today, pegging it at 15.029 billion bushels on a yield of 182.25 bpa, according to trade sources. Their estimate compares to last year’s harvest of 15.342 billion, and USDA August 2024 estimates of 15.147 billion bushels. Upcoming Wasde Sept. 12th

 

Watch Tomorrow’s Movers and Shakers:

ADP @ 7:15 am CDT

Initial Jobless Claims 7:30 am CDT

S&P Global PMI Final 8:45 am CDT

ISM Services PMI 9:00 am CDT

 

Due to Labor Day Weekend, both crude oil and Natural gas numbers come out tomorrow.

Natural Gad at 9:30 Am Central

Crude oil at 10 AM Central

Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO) after the close

 

 

 

 

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Daily Levels for September 5, 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

WILD Start to the Week: Key Dates for Upcoming Contracts

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C9

 

 

WILD start to the short trading week….

Below are the contracts which are entering First Notice or Last Trading Day for the upcoming month. Be advised, for contracts that are deliverable, it is requested that all LONG positions be exited two days prior to First Notice and ALL positions be exited the day prior to Last Trading Day. If you have any questions please contact

 

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Daily Levels for September 4, 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Labor Day Modified trading Schedule, Bitcoin Outlook & Levels for Aug. 30th

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Listen to our Market Recap Podcasts on Apple Podcasts

 

C9

 

 

Please see below Labor Day trading Schedule.

Our blog will resume Tuesday afternoon and there will be no weekly newsletter tomorrow or blog Monday afternoon.

 

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Daily Levels for August 30th, 2024

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September Bitcoin

September Bitcoin peaked in the spring and to date has completed three downside PriceCount objectives off the March high. At this point, IF the chart can resume its break with new sustained lows, we are left with the low percentage fourth downside to aim for 41,294 area.

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

 

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
8fa35495 a319 4285 b94e 1cab92b25c03

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

S&P 500 Index Futures

What are S&P 500 Index Futures?

S&P 500 Index Futures are standardized contracts traded on futures exchanges that allow traders to speculate on the future value of the S&P 500 Index, a widely followed benchmark representing 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. These futures are among the most liquid and widely traded financial derivatives globally, making them a crucial tool for both hedgers and speculators in the financial markets.

S&P 500 Index Futures

The S&P 500 Index Futures, commonly referred to as SPX Index Futures, provide investors with a way to gain exposure to the overall U.S. equity market without needing to buy individual stocks. This contract derives its value from the S&P 500 Index, which tracks the performance of these large-cap companies. As such, SP500 Index Futures are not just popular among institutional investors but also among individual traders looking to capitalize on movements in the broader stock market.

Key Features of S&P 500 Index Futures Contracts

1. Contract Specifications
  • Underlying Asset: The underlying asset of an S&P 500 Index Future is the S&P 500 Index itself. The value of the contract is tied to the performance of this index.
  • Contract Size: The standard contract size for S&P 500 Index Futures is $250 multiplied by the value of the S&P 500 Index. For example, if the S&P 500 Index is trading at 4,000, the value of one futures contract would be $1,000,000 ($250 x 4,000).
  • E-mini Contracts: Due to the large size of the standard S&P 500 futures contract, E-mini S&P 500 futures were introduced. These contracts are one-fifth the size of the standard contract, with a value of $50 multiplied by the index. E-minis have become more popular due to their affordability and accessibility.
  • Tick Size: The minimum price movement, or tick size, for the standard S&P 500 futures contract is 0.25 index points, which equals $12.50 per contract. For E-mini contracts, the tick size is also 0.25 index points, but it equals $12.50 due to the smaller contract size.
  • Expiration: S&P 500 Index Futures have a quarterly expiration cycle, typically expiring in March, June, September, and December. The contracts are settled in cash, meaning there is no delivery of the underlying asset, just a cash payment based on the contract’s final settlement price.
2. S&P 500 Futures Trading – Trading Hours

S&P 500 Index Futures are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and are available for trading nearly 24 hours a day during the trading week. This extended trading period allows market participants to react to global events that occur outside of regular U.S. market hours, providing continuous opportunities for trading.

3. Leverage

One of the most significant advantages of trading S&P 500 Index Futures is the ability to use leverage. Leverage allows traders to control a large position with a relatively small amount of capital. However, while leverage can magnify profits, it can also amplify losses, making it a double-edged sword that requires careful risk management.

4. Margin Requirements

To trade S&P 500 Index Futures, traders must post a margin, which is a percentage of the contract’s total value. The initial margin is the amount required to open a position, while the maintenance margin is the minimum balance that must be maintained in the account to keep the position open. If the account balance falls below the maintenance margin, the trader must deposit additional funds to bring the balance back up to the required level.

5. Hedging and Speculation

S&P 500 Index Futures are used for both hedging and speculative purposes. Hedgers, such as institutional investors or portfolio managers, use these futures to protect against potential losses in their equity portfolios. For instance, if a portfolio manager anticipates a decline in the stock market, they can sell S&P 500 futures to offset potential losses in their holdings.

Speculators, on the other hand, use S&P 500 futures to profit from anticipated market movements. By taking a long or short position, speculators can capitalize on price changes in the S&P 500 Index without having to invest in the underlying stocks.

6. Settlement

S&P 500 Index Futures are cash-settled, meaning that at expiration, the contracts are settled based on the difference between the contract price and the final settlement price of the S&P 500 Index. Traders who hold positions until expiration will either receive or pay the difference in cash, depending on whether they were long or short on the contract.

Trading Strategies Using S&P 500 Index Futures

1. Directional Trading

Directional trading involves taking a position based on the expectation of a future price movement in the S&P 500 Index. If a trader believes the market will rise, they can buy (go long) S&P 500 Index Futures. Conversely, if they anticipate a decline, they can sell (go short) the futures contract. This strategy is straightforward but requires a strong understanding of market trends and economic indicators that can influence the index.

2. Hedging

Hedging with S&P 500 Index Futures is a common strategy for reducing the risk of adverse price movements in an equity portfolio. For example, a portfolio manager who holds a diversified portfolio of U.S. stocks can sell S&P 500 futures contracts to protect against a potential decline in the market. If the market does fall, the losses in the portfolio may be offset by gains in the futures position.

3. Spread Trading

Spread trading involves taking simultaneous long and short positions in related futures contracts to profit from the price difference between them. In the context of S&P 500 Index Futures, traders might engage in calendar spreads, where they buy and sell contracts with different expiration dates, aiming to profit from changes in the price difference as the contracts approach expiration.

5. Arbitrage

Arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 Index Futures arise when the futures price deviates significantly from the fair value of the underlying index. Traders can exploit these discrepancies by buying or selling the index and taking the opposite position in the futures market, locking in a risk-free profit. However, true arbitrage opportunities are rare and typically short-lived, requiring swift action and large capital.

The Role of Futures Brokers in Trading S&P 500 Index Futures

Futures brokers play a critical role in facilitating the trading of S&P 500 Index Futures. They provide access to the futures markets, offer trading platforms, execute orders, and often provide valuable research and market analysis to help traders make informed decisions.

Choosing a Futures Broker

Selecting the right futures broker is crucial for success in trading S&P 500 Index Futures. A good futures broker will offer competitive pricing, a robust trading platform, and excellent customer service. Here are some factors to consider when choosing a futures broker:

  • Experience and Reputation: Look for a broker with a long-standing reputation in the industry. Experienced brokers are more likely to provide reliable services and understand the intricacies of futures trading.
  • Trading Platform: The broker’s trading platform should be user-friendly, with advanced charting tools, real-time data, and quick order execution. A good platform can make a significant difference in a trader’s ability to react swiftly to market changes.
  • Commission and Fees: Compare the commission rates and fees charged by different brokers. While cost should not be the only factor, finding a broker with competitive pricing can help maximize profits.
  • Customer Support: Excellent customer support is essential, especially for new traders who may need assistance navigating the futures markets. A broker that offers 24/7 support can be invaluable in addressing issues as they arise.
  • Educational Resources: Many brokers offer educational resources, including webinars, articles, and one-on-one coaching. These resources can be particularly beneficial for traders who are new to futures trading.

Cannon Trading: A Trusted Partner for S&P 500 Index Futures Trading

Cannon Trading is one such futures broker known for its deep industry experience and commitment to helping traders succeed. With over three decades of experience in the futures industry, Cannon Trading has established itself as a reliable partner for both novice and experienced traders.

  • Seasoned Brokers: Cannon Trading boasts a team of seasoned brokers who are well-versed in the complexities of futures trading. These professionals can provide personalized guidance, helping traders understand the nuances of S&P 500 Index Futures and develop effective trading strategies.
  • Advanced Trading Platforms: Cannon Trading offers access to advanced trading platforms that cater to the needs of different types of traders. Whether you prefer a desktop application, web-based trading, or mobile access, Cannon Trading has the tools to support your trading style.
  • Comprehensive Market Research: Staying informed about market developments is crucial in futures trading. Cannon Trading provides clients with access to comprehensive market research, including daily reports, technical analysis, and expert insights, helping traders stay ahead of market trends.
  • Risk Management Tools: Managing risk is a fundamental aspect of successful futures trading. Cannon Trading offers various risk management tools, including stop-loss orders and automated trading strategies, to help traders protect their investments.
  • Educational Support: For traders looking to deepen their knowledge of futures markets, Cannon Trading offers a wealth of educational resources. From webinars and articles to one-on-one coaching sessions, traders can access the information they need to improve their trading skills.

Understanding the Risks of Trading S&P 500 Index Futures

While trading S&P 500 Index Futures offers significant profit potential, it also comes with inherent risks. It is essential for traders to understand these risks and develop strategies to manage them effectively.

1. Market Risk

Market risk refers to the potential for losses due to adverse price movements in the S&P 500 Index. Because futures contracts are leveraged, even small price changes can result in substantial gains or losses. Traders must be prepared for the possibility of significant volatility and should consider using stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.

2. Leverage Risk

Leverage magnifies both profits and losses in futures trading. While it allows traders to control large positions with a small amount of capital, it also increases the potential for substantial losses if the market moves against the trader. Understanding the implications of leverage and using it judiciously is critical for long-term success.

3. Liquidity Risk

Liquidity risk arises when there is insufficient market activity to execute trades at the desired price. While S&P 500 Index Futures are generally highly liquid, there may be times when market liquidity is lower, particularly during off-hours or periods of extreme market stress. Traders should be aware of this risk and avoid placing large orders during illiquid periods.

4. Counterparty Risk

In futures trading, counterparty risk is mitigated by the futures exchange, which acts as the counterparty to all trades. However, traders should still be aware of the financial stability of their futures broker, as a broker’s insolvency could result in the loss of funds.

S&P 500 Index Futures are a powerful tool for traders and investors looking to gain exposure to the U.S. stock market. These futures contracts offer numerous advantages, including leverage, liquidity, and the ability to hedge against market risk. However, they also come with significant risks that require careful management.

Futures brokers like Cannon Trading play a vital role in helping traders navigate the complexities of the futures markets. With their extensive experience, advanced trading platforms, and commitment to client education, brokers like Cannon Trading can provide the support and resources needed to succeed in trading S&P 500 Index Futures.

Whether you are a seasoned trader or new to the world of futures, understanding the intricacies of S&P 500 Index Futures and working with a trusted broker can help you achieve your financial goals. With the right knowledge, tools, and support, the opportunities in S&P 500 Index Futures trading are vast, offering the potential for significant returns in the dynamic world of financial markets.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 (US) or (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Follow us on all socials: @cannontrading

Introducing Bitcoin Friday Futures & Market Updates for Aug. 29th

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WYNTK for Aug. 29th ( What You Need to Know)

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

 

Starting Monday evening a new futures contract will make its debut.  The CME Group will list the Bitcoin Friday Futures contract for trading on the CME Globex electronic trading platform.

 

Similar to the existing Micro-Bitcoin, the Friday futures contract will be sized at 1/50 of a Bitcoin.  The contracts will be cash-settled every Friday against the CME Bitcoin Reference Price, a benchmark for Bitcoin’s spot price.

 

Below you’ll find a link to the CME Group’s Special Report with the details of the new futures contract, including its exchange symbol, trading hours and exchange fees

 

Click here → https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/ser/2024/08/SER-9418.pdf 

 

Indexes:  

 

Volatility is once again the order of the day for stock indexes as traders wait for the release of Nvidia’s Q2 results.  The stock has moved an average of about 8% after earnings over the past 12 quarters, and should that happen again this afternoon, it would result in a market cap move of around $250B, which is bigger than many U.S. companies.  Nvidia shares are up a whopping 159% in 2024, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500’s YTD return of 18%.

 

Metals:  

 

Dec. gold traded up to its second highest all-time intraday price level of $2,564.30 per ounce early in the session yesterday afternoon before reversing today, likely on a rebound in the dollar, which has tumbled ±5% in the last two months and is hovering at 1-year lows

 

Driven by the prospect of upcoming U.S. interest rate cuts, which has pressured the dollar in recent weeks, British Sterling climbed to its highest against the U.S. dollar in more than two years yesterday.

 

 

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Daily Levels for August 29th, 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
0232c2b9 a8e0 44ce a911 74ad9697817c

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Essential Tools And Resources For Successful Commodity Trading

We live today in a world full of digital assets, where goods and services are becoming more and more dominated by commodities that only exist in a virtual way. Even currencies are becoming increasingly digitized, and more and more market upsets are caused by collapses of digital currencies and other intangible assets.

Despite the increasing demand for and prominence of digital assets, the world market remains and will remain a place where materials matter. A physical commodity–whether it’s a barrel of oil, an ingot of iron, or a bale of wool–will never be without value. The same cannot be said for an app or a Bitcoin.

If you are hoping to invest in commodities, you are looking for tangible assets that have real value today and in the future. However, commodity markets are a complex world, and like it or not, buying and selling commodities is a fast-paced process that requires the right combination of access and contacts in order to buy and sell at the best commodity prices.

Successful commodity trading relies heavily on timing and availability; when opportunity knocks your hand needs to already be on the knob. How can you be ready to move physical assets at a moment’s notice?

The answer lies in having access to the right tools.

Starting with an accessible commodity trading platform is paramount, but equally important is staying abreast of the commodities market with an in-depth education on the current and future market prices.

And as you are learning to navigate the many intricacies of commodities trading, it may be wisest for you to include a broker, who operates based on commissions and can provide an excellent failsafe as you negotiate the high-stakes learning curve.

If you think commodity trading is your next step to expand your portfolio and diversify your assets, keep reading to learn what you will need to succeed.

Purchasing Power: Choose the Best Platform for Access to Commodities Markets

let experienced traders help you navigate commodity prices

A century ago, commodities and futures were bought and sold on wharves and in warehouses, with brokers walking among crates and pallets choosing their wares based on local contacts who had need of raw materials.

Fortunately, today, there is no need to find a wharf. Futures and commodities are listed for sale on the world stage and anyone with money can become part of the delicate dance that brings raw materials to manufacturers.

Pick Your Platform: Commodities Trading Platforms Put Commodities Markets In Your Pocket

There are many trading platforms available today, but they are not all created equal. Which platform you choose will depend on your level of experience, your understanding of the world market the specific market of your chosen commodity, and your risk tolerance.

Features: Demystifying the Markets

Commodities trading platforms have a plethora of features. Some may function best as failsafe and training wheels for the new trader, while others are powerful tools that even a seasoned veteran of the markets will appreciate.

Some features are intended only to make futures trading quicker and more convenient. These features include things like single-click trading, the ability to trade multiple accounts, and even automated trading.

Other features aim to help you make the best choices for your investment strategy. These features might include Depth of Market (DOM), streaming real-time data, and risk managers that alert and correct when your trades do not line up with your stated risk tolerance.

The commodity markets become much more transparent and accessible with powerful tools on your side.

Knowledge is Power: Understanding the Commodity Market

As you begin your foray into commodity trading, the commodity market may seem very volatile and unpredictable.

But in fact, like most complex systems, the commodities markets are governed by principles that are predictable and useful for those who take the time to understand them.

Partnering with an experienced trading company will give you access to hundreds of charts, insights, and advisors who can help illuminate the inner workings of this exchange. Whether you are trading commodity stocks, futures contracts, or commodity derivatives, a firm grasp of market principles and the impact of current events on projected prices will be essential for your success.

Delegating: The Power of Letting a Professional Handle Your Commodity Trading

When entering the commodity trading market, you may want to do all your own trades. However, with such a vast and complex market full of unique traded commodities, it may be wise to join forces with experienced traders who can provide much-needed guidance on which trades are likely to lead to success.

A commodity futures trading commission is a small price to pay for the incredible advantage that experienced investors can give you, potentially saving you thousands as they teach and direct you on how to navigate the commodity markets.

The Time is Now: Lock in Commodity Prices and Establish Your Place in the Markets Today

If you believe that your portfolio would benefit from expansion into the commodities market, it may be time to establish a relationship with a commodity trading company that can help you take the next step.

A reputable company can help you to analyze current and future commodity prices, determine your personal risk tolerance, and begin overcoming the challenges that face any newcomer to commodity trading.

Don’t miss out on the opportunities that the commodity market has to offer. Whether you choose to invest in futures contracts, commodity ETFs, or in hard commodities like precious metals or agricultural products, a partnership with a commodity trading company will open the vagaries of the commodity market to your understanding.

Start your journey into the knowledge of this promising sector today.

Key Market Insights: Retail Sales, Home Prices, and Consumer Confidence

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Subscribe to our YouTube Channel
Listen to our Market Recap Podcasts on Apple Podcasts

 

trading chart

 

Movers and shakers!

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Today’s Headlines:

 

Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap

 

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +4.9% in the first three weeks of August 2024 vs August 2023

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +5.0% in the week ending August 24 vs yr ago week

Updated: August 27, 2024 8:01 am

Case Schiller 20 US Metro-Area Home Prices Recap

 

**Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for June Y/Y: +6.5% from the year ago month

**Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for June M/M: +0.6% vs prior month

Updated: August 27, 2024 9:02 am

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Headline Recap

 

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Index: -19.0 ; prior -17.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Shipments Index: -15.0 ; prior -21.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing New Orders: -26.0 ; prior -23.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Employees: -15.0 ; prior -5.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Prices Paid: +2.45 ; prior +3.0

**Richmond Fed August Manufacturing Prices Received: +1.87 ; prior +1.31

 

**Richmond Fed August Service Sector Index: -11.0 ; prior +5.0

 

Updated: August 27, 2024 9:02 am

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Present Situation, Expectations Index Headline Recap

 

**Conference Board August Consumer Confidence Index: 103.3 ; prior revised to 101.9 from 100.3 ; expected 100.5

**Conference Board August Consumer Present Situation Index: 134.4 ; prior revised 133.1 from 133.6

**Conference Board August Consumer Expectations Index: 82.5 ; prior revised to 81.1 from 78.2

 

Tomorrows Movers and Shakers

US Mortgage Bankers Assoc (MBA) will update their weekly US market indices at 6:00 am CT Wednesday morning.

Crude Oil inventories at 9:30 Am Central

Quiet Econ Data day

 

 

 

Earnings: NVIDIA, CRM, Crowdstrike after the close

 

 

 

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Daily Levels for August 28th, 2024

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September Mexican Peso

The September Mexican peso corrected after completing the second downside PriceCount objective earlier this month. Now, the chart is threatening to break down again where new sustained lows would project a possible run to the 46.75 area.

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

 

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Hedging with Futures and Speculating with Futures in Futures Trading

Futures trading is a powerful financial mechanism that plays a crucial role in global markets. It provides market participants with tools to manage risks and seize opportunities in volatile market conditions. The two primary strategies employed by market participants in futures trading are hedging and speculating. Understanding these strategies and their application in the context of futures trading is essential for anyone involved in or considering involvement in the financial markets.

Futures in Futures Trading

What is Futures Trading?

Before delving into the specifics of hedging and speculating, it’s important to understand what futures trading entails. A futures contract is a standardized legal agreement to buy or sell a specific commodity or financial instrument at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. These contracts are traded on futures exchanges and cover a wide range of underlying assets, including commodities (like oil, gold, and wheat), financial instruments (such as interest rates and currencies), and stock indices.

Futures trading involves both the buyer and the seller agreeing to the terms of the contract. However, unlike traditional buying and selling of assets, futures trading often does not result in the physical delivery of the underlying asset. Instead, many traders close their positions before the contract’s expiration, settling the difference between the purchase and sale prices.

Hedging with Futures

Definition and Purpose of Hedging

Hedging with futures is a risk management strategy used by individuals and businesses to protect themselves against adverse price movements in the market. The primary goal of hedging is not to make a profit but to reduce or eliminate the risk of price fluctuations that could negatively impact a company’s financial performance or an investor’s portfolio.

How Hedging Works

Hedging with futures involves taking a position in the futures market that is opposite to one’s current position in the cash market. For example, a wheat farmer expecting to harvest 10,000 bushels of wheat in six months may be concerned about the possibility of falling wheat prices. To hedge this risk, the farmer can sell wheat futures contracts now. If the price of wheat declines, the loss in the cash market (selling the harvested wheat) is offset by gains in the futures market (selling futures contracts at a higher price than the eventual market price).

Types of Hedging Strategies
  1. Short Hedge: This strategy is used by producers or sellers of a commodity who want to protect against the risk of falling prices. They sell futures contracts to lock in a future selling price for their commodity. If prices drop, the losses from selling the actual commodity are offset by the gains in the futures market.
  2. Long Hedge: This is used by buyers who want to protect against rising prices. For instance, a company that needs to purchase raw materials in the future might buy futures contracts now to lock in the current price. If the market price rises, the company benefits from the futures contracts, offsetting the increased cost of purchasing the raw materials.
Advantages of Hedging with Futures
  • Price Protection: Hedging allows businesses to lock in prices, providing certainty and stability in their financial planning.
  • Cost Control: By fixing future costs, companies can better manage their budgets and financial forecasts.
  • Risk Management: Hedging reduces the risk of unfavorable price movements, protecting profit margins.
Disadvantages of Hedging with Futures
  • Opportunity Cost: If the market moves in favor of the hedger, they miss out on potential profits because their position in the futures market offsets gains.
  • Complexity: Hedging requires a good understanding of the market and the ability to accurately predict future price movements. Improper hedging can lead to increased losses.
  • Margin Requirements: Hedging with futures involves margin calls, which require maintaining a certain amount of capital in the trading account. This can tie up funds that could be used elsewhere.
Real-World Examples of Hedging with Futures
  • Agricultural Hedging: A corn farmer concerned about falling corn prices might sell corn futures contracts to hedge against this risk. If corn prices drop, the loss from selling the corn at a lower price is offset by the profit from the futures contracts.
  • Currency Hedging: A U.S. company that expects to receive payment in euros in six months might hedge against the risk of the euro depreciating against the dollar by selling euro futures contracts. If the euro’s value drops, the loss from the currency exchange is offset by the gain in the futures market.

Speculating with Futures

Definition and Purpose of Speculating

Speculating with futures involves buying or selling futures contracts with the goal of making a profit from changes in the price of the underlying asset. Unlike hedging, where the primary objective is risk management, speculating is about taking on risk in the hopes of earning a return. Speculators have no intention of taking delivery of the underlying asset; they are only interested in profiting from price movements.

How Speculating Works

Speculators analyze the market and make predictions about the direction of future price movements. Based on their analysis, they take positions in the futures market:

  • Going Long: A speculator buys futures contracts if they believe the price of the underlying asset will increase. If the price does rise, the speculator can sell the contract at a higher price and profit from the difference.
  • Going Short: Conversely, if a speculator believes the price will decline, they sell futures contracts. If the price falls, they can buy back the contract at a lower price and profit from the difference.
Types of Speculators
  1. Day Traders: These are speculators who hold positions for a very short period, often just minutes or hours. They aim to profit from small price movements and typically close all positions by the end of the trading day.
  2. Swing Traders: These speculators hold positions for several days or weeks, aiming to profit from short-term price trends.
  3. Position Traders: Position traders take longer-term positions, holding contracts for months, based on broader economic or market trends.
Advantages of Speculating with Futures
  • High Leverage: Futures trading offers high leverage, allowing speculators to control large positions with a relatively small amount of capital.
  • Liquidity: Futures markets are highly liquid, meaning that speculators can enter and exit positions easily without significantly impacting the market price.
  • Potential for High Returns: Due to leverage and market volatility, speculators can potentially earn significant returns in a short period.
Disadvantages of Speculating with Futures
  • High Risk: The same leverage that allows for high returns also amplifies losses. Speculators can lose more than their initial investment.
  • Market Volatility: Futures markets can be highly volatile, and prices can change rapidly. This volatility can lead to significant losses if the market moves against a speculator’s position.
  • Complexity and Expertise: Successful speculation requires a deep understanding of the market, technical analysis, and economic factors. It is not suitable for inexperienced traders.
Real-World Examples of Speculating with Futures
  • Commodity Speculation: A speculator might buy crude oil futures if they believe a geopolitical event will cause oil prices to rise. If their prediction is correct, they can sell the contracts at a higher price and make a profit.
  • Stock Index Futures: A speculator who expects the stock market to decline might sell S&P 500 futures contracts. If the market falls, they can buy back the contracts at a lower price and profit from the difference.

Hedging vs. Speculating

Objectives

The primary objective of hedging is risk management. Hedgers use futures contracts to protect themselves from unfavorable price movements in the cash market. In contrast, the main objective of speculating is to profit from price changes. Speculators are willing to take on risk in hopes of earning a return.

Market Participants

Hedgers are typically producers, manufacturers, exporters, or importers who have a direct interest in the underlying asset. For example, a farmer, oil company, or multinational corporation might hedge their exposure to price changes in commodities or currencies. Speculators, on the other hand, include individual traders, hedge funds, and proprietary trading firms that have no interest in the underlying asset but are looking to profit from price fluctuations.

Risk Tolerance

Hedgers are generally risk-averse. Their goal is to reduce risk, not take it on. They use futures contracts to lock in prices and ensure stability in their financial performance. Speculators, however, are risk-takers. They seek out risk because they believe they can profit from it. The potential for high returns comes with the acceptance of high risk.

Time Horizon

Hedging is typically done with a longer-term perspective, as the goal is to protect against price changes that could impact the business or investment over time. For example, a company might hedge its currency exposure for the next six months. Speculators, however, often operate with shorter time horizons, ranging from a few minutes to several months, depending on their trading strategy.

Outcome Expectations

For hedgers, the best outcome is that the hedge effectively reduces or eliminates the risk of adverse price movements. They are not seeking to profit from the hedge itself, but rather to maintain financial stability. Speculators, on the other hand, expect to make a profit from their trades. Their success is measured by the accuracy of their market predictions and their ability to execute trades at the right time.

Hedging with futures and speculating with futures are two fundamental strategies in futures trading, each serving distinct purposes. Hedging is a vital tool for managing risk and ensuring financial stability, particularly for businesses and investors who have direct exposure to the underlying asset. It allows them to protect against adverse price movements and secure predictable financial outcomes. On the other hand, speculating with futures is about taking on risk in pursuit of profit. Speculators play a crucial role in the market by providing liquidity and helping to discover prices, but their activities are driven by the potential for high returns, which also comes with the possibility of significant losses.

Both strategies require a deep understanding of the futures markets, as well as the underlying assets, and they involve careful analysis and decision-making. For those involved in futures trading, whether they are hedging or speculating, the key to success lies in their ability to accurately assess market conditions, manage risk, and execute trades effectively. Futures trading, with its potential for both risk management and profit generation, continues to be an essential component of the global financial system, offering opportunities for a wide range of market participants.

For more information, click here.
Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 (US) or (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

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Gearing Up for Labor Day: Key Reports and Kansas City Wheat Analysis

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Make it a great trading week ahead!

Labor Day is around the corner…

See reports for the week as well as Kansas City Wheat chart below.

December KC Wheat

December KC wheat resumed its slide into a new low where the chart is satisfying its third downside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

stars

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Daily Levels for August 27th, 2024

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.