Latest Copper Futures Updates May 2024

Copper futures in New York experienced a notable surge, rising up to 5.5%, influenced by a significant short squeeze. This drove the most actively traded July contract to peak at $5.026 per pound on Tuesday, nearing the historical high of $5.0395 from March 2022. Michael Cuoco from StoneX Group noted that those holding short futures and spreads were under pressure. This situation highlighted the July contract specifically, which traded substantially above the benchmark prices, such as those on the London Metal Exchange, and led to a rare backwardation in the market, with the July contract pricing 29.25 cents per pound higher than the September one. This anomaly caused shifts in copper shipments towards the U.S. market. Despite global market fluctuations, including declines in Chinese stocks and concerns about U.S.-China trade tensions, the copper price rally continued, driven by strong speculative interest and insufficient physical buying, which didn’t meet seasonal expectations. Copper Tube Mills responded by raising prices 5-8%, effective the following day. Copper demand remains robust, anticipated to grow further as some mines reduce output.

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Disclaimer – Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this writing are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. This writing is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. 

**This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology. It has been modified from the original draft for accuracy and compliance.

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Juice on the Loose!

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Monthly World Agricultural Supply Demand reports aren’t just for Corn, Soybeans and Wheat futures. Friday we had that monthly number and as you can see, the anticipation in the Orange Juice market the day before Created a Gap on the price charts from $3.83 to $3.85 Orange Juice Futures have gone limit

For the past two days. 10 cents per 37,500 lbs on Monday and expanded limits today for an additional 20 cents or $7500.00 per contract. On Friday, WASDE reported a reduction of domestic production by 1 million Boxes of Oranges. A note about Gaps: The adage that all gaps eventually get filled might not always hold true, especially in the case of Breakaway and Runaway gaps. Waiting for breakout or runaway gaps to be filled can cripple your portfolio. This appears to be a bullish ,Breakaway Gap.

Holy Hot Wire Batman!

It seems there isn’t any copper to be found in Gotham, or is there?

The High Grade Copper market Jumped in the wake of a WSJ story titled Why the World has Gone Cuckoo for Copper  Court entanglements with the Panamanian Cobre Mine, in addition to UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the U.S. Vying for majority stakes of a large Zambian mining operation pushed The prices at the COMEX for the July Copper contract Rallied to an all time high of $5.0260 above the march 2022 High of 4.9375, However it looks like we are going to close a shade below that around the 4.88 area today. Watch this market.

Hot report for tomorrow

One of the most meaningful economic Data sets for FED decision makers , US April consumer price index (CPI) data will be released tomorrow pre-market and is forecast by analysts to be +0.4% month-to-month, compared to the previous month’s +0.4%. Core CPI on monthly terms is expected +0.3% in April compared to the prior month’s +0.4%.    CPI on annualized terms is forecast up +3.4% from the year ago, the core year-over-year figure is expected up +3.6%.

Day trading margins for the Equity products will, rightfully so, be increased in advance of potentially violent market reactions and will typically be returned to normal within 15 to 30 minutes following the release. Some , not all FCM’s

If you are a day trader, below you will see markets that our proprietary ALGO has identified as being more suitable for attacking either from the long side or the short side.

Questions? We are happy to help!

Daily Levels for May 15th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Busy week ahead!

Starting with tomorrow’s PPI and Powell speaking, followed by Wednesday higher impact CPI. Usually we have CPI comes out first followed by the PPI report.

Below you will see a summary of this week’s meaningful reports.

Volatility in Cocoa markets continues with the market losing close to 20% in today’s session!! That is close to 18 full points or $18,000 per contract!!

Coffee is also experiencing higher than usual price swings and both are correlated to the Brazilian Real which is a legitimate, tradeable futures currency contract!

If you are a day trader, below you will see markets that our proprietary ALGO has identified as being more suitable for attacking either from the long side or the short side.

Questions? We are happy to help!

Daily Levels for May 13th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Soybean daily chart outlook for your review below.

Tomorrow pay attention to Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment as well as few fed members speaking.

Volume has been on the light side for stock index futures.

Both silver, gold and copper resumed upside moves.

If you are a day trader, below you will see markets that our proprietary ALGO has identified as being more suitable for attacking either from the long side or the short side.

Questions? We are happy to help!

Daily Levels for May 10th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Bullet Points: Highlights and Announcements

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

Energy:  

Options five day a week; it’s not just for stock index futures.  Mark your calendars; starting Monday July 22, WTI Crude Oil options will be available with Tuesday and Thursday expirations alongside the already-available Monday, Wednesday and Friday expirations and monthly options.  Once in place, along with shorter expirations and lower premiums, WTI Weekly options will provide opportunities to hedge weekend headline risk, OPEC+ meetings or geopolitical events. They can also be used to express views on mid-week announcements, including the weekly E.I.A Petroleum Status Report, typically released on Wednesday.

Financials: 

On the interest rate front, some interesting news: in contrast with the wait-and-see mode of the United States, today Sweden followed Switzerland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic in easing monetary policy for the first time since interest rate hiking cycles began in 2022, when inflation surfaced in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. The central bank of Sweden – the Riksbank – lowered its policy rate by 0.25 basis points to 3.75%, making it more likely that the European Central Bank will jump on the bandwagon. The shift is noteworthy as it highlights the current divergence among central banks around the world.

Grains: 

Ostensibly the report of the week in an otherwise humdrum 5-day stretch, this Friday the U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.  The report provides annual forecasts for supply and use of U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton.  The report also covers U.S. supply and use of sugar, meat, eggs and milk.  Simultaneously released is the monthly Crop Production report which contains crop production data for the U.S., including crop conditions, acreage, area harvested and yield.

Stock Indexes: 

Happy birthday Micro E-mini futures!  In 2019, Micro E-mini futures on the four leading equity indices became the most successful launch in CME Group history.  In just these first five years, over 2.6 billion contracts have traded.  The average daily volume reached over 2.4 million contracts across the four indices (up 355% since 2019).  And how about this for global reach: 24% of average daily volume came from outside of the U.S., with trades submitted from 170+ countries.

In just five years, demand and liquidity for Micro E-mini futures have grown significantly from both active individual and institutional traders, creating more possibilities than ever for those seeking new opportunities. These liquid, smaller-sized contracts provide an efficient way to scale equity exposure with precision, while adding versatility to trading strategies.

Daily Levels for May 9th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

The Last 15 minutes are Very Important!

by Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

For those engaged in trading index futures, particularly day trading in instruments like the mini NASDAQ, mini S&P500, and micro NASDAQ, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the final 10 to 15 minutes of the trading session are gaining significance.

The advent of zero-day expiration options and the earnings season seem to be driving a surge in volume and market activity during this closing window. A key metric I monitor is what I term ‘the imbalance,’ which reflects the trading dynamics of the constituent stocks within these indices, including major players like Microsoft and Netflix, among others. Various platforms, including TradeTheNews.com, offer insights into this imbalance, and as demonstrated in the screenshot provided, we extend a complimentary trial to TTN’s acclaimed services.

What you will see below is the last trading day there was a significant imbalance, the screen shot below from TTN shows an “imbalance to the sell side of 2.0 Billion”

You can also see the large downside move that took place the same day during the last 15 minutes along with HIGH volume, almost as much as the rest of the day session…..

AGAIN, this is NOT meant as a recommendation or as an indicator….simply another factor to pay attention to.

This brief article isn’t a guide on how to trade in these crucial final minutes but rather a prompt to acknowledge their importance. As a trader, you should dedicate more time to studying and understanding this period. Below, you’ll find a chart of mini S&P 500 from April 30th session, complete with volume and additional analyses for your consideration.

Daily Levels for May 8th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Coffee, Hope & Probability….

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

In lieu of a light Data and fed speaker wee, we have a relatively heavy earnings week but none of the magnificent seven reporting, so here goes with a few words on the Coffee Futures Market.

After the July coffee market rallied to contract highs April 16^th.. @245.50

A target based on price count theory had been met and there was a low probability of the rally extending much higher.

When we got the corrective trade and price action took us down below the 21 day MA at the 220.00 area, , this market , for us, showed the rally was over for the time being.

It certainly looks like the price action wants to get back down into the channel between 198.00 and 175.00 as it was uncomfortable at the higher price levels above 200  , due to the steep sell off from the mid-April highs I would look for a corrective rally before we continue back into the comfort zone.

Seasonality:  Southern Hemisphere coffees have already been harvested; Northern hemisphere coffee beans be ripe for the picking in Early Summer to Mid Fall.

The crop was better than expected in the southern hemisphere and the Northern hemisphere weather is tempering…  unless there becomes a disease scare or a sudden drought the next few months, I would anticipate Coffee Bean prices to moderate further, working lower and testing the bottom of the range.

Above we Referenced “probability

The difference between probability and hope

Is that probability is the state of being probable; likelihood.. While hope is the belief or expectation that something wished for can or will happen.

Probability is usually stated between 0 and 1 , One reflecting the highest probability of an event occurring and zero meaning no chance the event will occur.

We avoid Hope in our trading decisions.

Daily Levels for May 6th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1192

• Important Notices – First Notice & Last Trading Days
• Futures 101 – Hedging Guide
• Hot Market of the Week – July Soymeal
• Broker’s Trading System of the Week – ES Swing System
• Trading Levels for Next Week
• Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:

• Fed Governors to speak: Cook on Financial Stability Wed. Afternoon – Bowman on Financial Stability Risks Fri. Morning
• A Very Light Data Week, Jobless claims Thursday Pre Market
• Additional Agricultural Market Volatility on the horizon: USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand Estimates Fri. 11am Central
• Earnings next week include Disney, Uber and Air BNB as the largest cap stocks featured.

Futures 101 : Futures Hedging Self Study Guide!

• Hot Market of the Week – July Soymeal

Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?

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Daily Levels for May 6th 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Bullet Points & Highlights:

• Today Coffee and Cocoa were down considerably again, Cocoa closing at the lowest level since Mid March @ $75.63 That’s $43.00 off the Contract all time highs less than 2 weeks ago.

• It Looks like the Soy Complex is lifting off with July Beans 28 cents higher and Soymeal $16.00 higher

• Next week will again be a heavy Earnings Week
• Next week a quiet Econ Data week

Commodity Trading Challenge with Real Cash Prizes!

https://cmegroup.com/futures_challenge/challenges/1043/landing?challenge_sponsored_broker=CannonTrading

Challenge Details

Our commodity benchmarks fuel economies worldwide, from oil to copper to grains and more. Explore the benefits of trading the world’s most liquid physical futures markets.

• All trades during the competition will be completed in the Challenge Simulator.
• All traders will begin with a virtual account of $100,000, aiming to maximize their balance by the competition’s close.
• Cash prizes will be awarded to the top three eligible traders with the highest account balances in the Overall Leaderboard and also to the top trader from each of the Alternate Leaderboards (up to six total prizes available, each with a cash value as set forth to the right; traders are only eligible for one prize).

GET STARTED

Daily Levels for May 3rd, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Post FOMC, Pre NFP – The Rest of the Week in the Futures Markets:

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker:

In meeting after meeting, Federal Reserve officials have been saying that the path to achieving their 2% inflation goal would be a bumpy one.  For the first quarter of 2024, “there has been a lack of further progress toward the (Fed’s) two percent inflation objective,” according to the central bank’s statement following today’s conclusion of it most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

As such, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.5%, a 23-year high.  This move – or the absence of one – was highly anticipated.  Indeed, Fed watchers expect the central bank to hold rates steady through its next meeting in June – for the seventh consecutive time – and likely further on out.  In one readers survey conducted by Seeking Alpha, over half the participants don’t see any rate cuts in 2024.  Patience seems to be the order of the day as Fed Chair Jay Powell explained earlier this month: the current restrictive policy needs more time to work as the labor market remains strong and disinflationary dynamics have stalled.

The next economic mover and shaker up this week: the Labor Department’s April Non-Farm Payrolls Report, to be released Friday, 7:30 A.M., Central Time.  The precursor to this came today in the form of the ADP employment report, which revealed that 192,000 private jobs were added in April, a slowdown from the 208,000 private jobs added the prior month.  The latest reading came in higher than the expected 179,000 addition of new private jobs. The forecast for nonfarm payrolls is for 243,000 jobs to have been added.

Commodity Trading Challenge with Real Cash Prizes!

https://cmegroup.com/futures_challenge/challenges/1043/landing?challenge_sponsored_broker=CannonTrading

Challenge Details

Our commodity benchmarks fuel economies worldwide, from oil to copper to grains and more. Explore the benefits of trading the world’s most liquid physical futures markets.

• All trades during the competition will be completed in the Challenge Simulator.
• All traders will begin with a virtual account of $100,000, aiming to maximize their balance by the competition’s close.
• Cash prizes will be awarded to the top three eligible traders with the highest account balances in the Overall Leaderboard and also to the top trader from each of the Alternate Leaderboards (up to six total prizes available, each with a cash value as set forth to the right; traders are only eligible for one prize).

GET STARTED

Daily Levels for May 2nd, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.