Saudi Arabia, Crude Oil and Futures Trading Levels for 11.30.2017

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Dear Traders,

Front month for Silver and most grains is now March.

Front month for gold is now February.

Front month for bonds and other interest futures is now March 2018. 

Saudi Arabia: Turbulence on the Horizon?

  • 21 Nov 2017
  • By Erik Norland
  • Topics: Economic Events

There is considerable change underway in Saudi Arabia, from how the country is governed and managed to an even more activist role in the politics of the volatile Middle East. Options markets, however, appear to be almost entirely unconcerned about recent developments in the country, the world’s largest exporter of crude oil and a key U.S. ally in the Middle East.

At-the-money implied volatility on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil options has been trading near its lowest point since late 2014 and is well below its long-term average.  For example, on November 17, 90-day WTI options closed at 23% implied volatility, well below their 31% average so far this decade (Figure 1).  Are markets too complacent in the face of potential political disruption in Saudi Arabia and its neighboring countries. READ THE REST

Continue reading “Saudi Arabia, Crude Oil and Futures Trading Levels for 11.30.2017”

Big day on the last trading day of the month tomorrow! 11.30.2016

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In today’s blog, note about tomorrow’s full day of reports, changes to Russell contract size, reminder of current front months

Dear Traders,

Looking at the schedule for tomorrow – BIG day ahead.

We have OPEC, Crude Oil report, Beige book, ADP employment report, CPI and much more.

Check the calendar on section 3 of this blog. Set alarms. Know which reports affect the markets you trade so you don’t get caught in one of those moments where you yell ” What the heck just happened??

Effective on trade date Monday, December 5th,  ICE Futures US will change the contract size for mini Russell 2000:

Mini Russell 2000 used to be that one point  was $100 or 1 tick was $10. As of next Monday, one point will be worth $50 and each tick will be $5.

Assigned Deliveries can be a very costly process to try and reverse…..make sure you are trading the correct months:

  • Front month for Gold is February.
  • Silver front month is March.
  • Front month for most grains is March.
  • Crude oil and Natural gas are January.

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Getting Stopped Out on the Highs and Lows? Read This Article….11-18-2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday November 18, 2016

Greetings!

Dear Traders,

Many of you shared with me how frustrated you get when you get stopped out only to see the market goes back to where you wanted it to or positioned for….

This article by my colleague John Thorpe, talks about using weekly mini SP 500 options and can be applied to  gold, bonds, crude oil and other markets that have weekly options.  Must read.

Weekly Mini S&P option contracts

There are 100’s of indicators available to traders to assist with decision making that can be applied to technical analysis, which is precisely the reason to utilize a sound and inexpensive weekly ES strategy to compliment a day trading strategy.

There are two main uses for the Weekly options
  1. As a hedge, no need for stops
  2. As a pure speculation. A relatively inexpensive way to speculate on market direction in a time frame that can be for minutes, hours or a few days without the need to use stops.

Read the full article!

Continue reading “Getting Stopped Out on the Highs and Lows? Read This Article….11-18-2016”

Oil outlook by Erik Nolan of the CME group 10.28.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday October 28, 2016

Greetings!

Good read by the CME about oil prices:

Oil: Tell-Tale Signs in U.S. Inventories

  • 25 Oct 2016
  • By Erik Norland
  • Topics: Energy

For those hoping for a sustained rebound in oil prices, U.S. inventories might present a mixed picture.  First the bad news: crude oil inventories are still near record high levels and are continuing to rise on a year-on-year basis.  Gasoline and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) inventories are also increasing year on year but to a lesser extent.  Inventories of all three remain near seasonally-adjusted record highs.

The good news is that the pace of inventory accumulation is slowing rapidly.  For a while in 2015, crude oil inventories were rising as much as 31% year on year.  Currently, they are just 5% greater than a year ago (Figure 2).  Gasoline inventories are up about 4% from last year while ULSD inventories are up about 7% from a year ago.  At their peak rate of increase, gasoline inventories rose at about 11% year on year, while ULSD inventories increased by as much as 27% year on year.

Read the rest along with graphs and charts.

Continue reading “Oil outlook by Erik Nolan of the CME group 10.28.2016”

Crude Oil Volatility and Chart 9.29.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday September 29, 2016

Greetings!

What a volatile day in the energy sector…..

We started with the energy report sending prices much lower only to get some reports on agreement between some of the oil producing countries to limit production…..

Buy the rumor sell the fact?

time will tell but if you are trading energies be aware of the news and adjust your trading as volatility expands like it just did…..

Daily chart of Crude Oil for fun….

Crude Oil Chart

Crude Oil Numbers Tomorrow 9.28.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday September 28, 2016

Greetings!

We have a full day tomorrow!

Crude Oil numbers, Fed. members speaking, Draghi speaking, durable goods….

I wrote before on trading or not trading during big numbers.
Each of you is a different person, different trader and hence the importance of keeping a personal trading journal. If you trade crude oil, you will be able to look back at your journal and decide if to trade or not during crude numbers and read from past weekly reprots which will greatly help you preparing for tomorrow report.

Crude Oil and Mini SP 500 Charts – Sitting on Major Support! 9.15.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday September 15, 2016

Greetings!

No words of wisdom today…so instead two charts of two markets that are sitting or very close to major support.

First is the mini SP 500, followed by Crude Oil.

Mini SP 500 Daily Chart

Mini SP 500 Daily Chart

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Crude Oil Daily Chart

If you need help, feel like chatting markets or getting feedback  – we are here!

Continue reading “Crude Oil and Mini SP 500 Charts – Sitting on Major Support! 9.15.2016”

Crude Oil Outlook 8.26.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday August 26, 2016

Hello Traders,

Greetings!

Crude Oil Futures Are Reaching a Decision Point
I like the potential of being bullish on crude oil futures for next few weeks! Here are a few ways you can do this:

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Crude oil futures have been providing quite a bit of excitement the last few months. Most traders, myself included, like excitement when it comes to trading. It means two things: opportunities and risks.

The recent pullback in crude oil future prices present a buying opportunity, in my opinion.

Looking at the daily chart of crude oil below, you will see that I marked what I feel should be a support level for resumption of the upside move.

Read the Rest of the article along with charts here

Continue reading “Crude Oil Outlook 8.26.2016”

Trading Crude Oil Futures on EIA Report Time 8.24.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday August 24, 2016

Hello Traders,

Greetings!

Tomorrow, like almost every Wednesday, we will have EIA report at 9:30 AM Central Time. This report definitely moves the energy sector, crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gas.

The one I follow the most, as I feel it is suitable for day trading is Crude oil. I have shared many of my observations about trading crude on this blog before. Today I want to talk specifically about the report.

Two main ways in my opinion to trade the report:

  1. Don’t trade it…Get out 5 minutes before and wait 5-10 minutes after the smoke clears before you resume trading.
  2. Be flat before the report and place limit orders with corresponding stops and profit targets to buy low and/ or sell high. Perhaps look at bollinger bands on the 15 minute chart and use sell and buy limits around the extreme. If you brave enough , have enough risk capital and experience to go about it, make sure you have stops attached to these limit orders as the market can move very FAST. Not just that, you can also expect slippage. That being said, I have seen crude oil make some extreme moves right on the number only to come back either way before making another extreme move…If you looking to try this I HIGHLY recommend to use a demo account first and see how it goes. Don’t jump in with real money just because you read about it somewhere….( here in this case).

Below you will see 10 seconds chart for last Wednesday to give somewhat of an example, followed by the 15 minute chart below.

Continue reading “Trading Crude Oil Futures on EIA Report Time 8.24.2016”