TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Firming data frees markets to ignore new COVID warnings and renewed trade tensions
US stock markets continued to push higher this week, led by fresh highs in the NASDAQ, climbing an ever expanding wall of uncertainty. The President and Washington DC were front and center once again in terms of providing news that added to an already ambiguous landscape. The fiscal stimulus debate on Capitol Hill dragged on with both sides exchanging barbs while maintaining a belief that a deal can ultimately be reached. The President threatened to bypass Congress with executive orders on eviction protections and payroll tax withholdings if a deal is not reached soon. He also made a series of announcements regarding China that ratcheted up already elevated tensions and introduced potential uncertainty for capital markets. Those moves included potential tightening of disclosure requirements for Chinese firms listing in the US, and executive orders threatening a ban on US residents from doing business with TikTok and Wechat. The White House also announced new tariffs against the Canadian aluminum industry which Canada said it would respond to in kind.
The economic data painted a brighter picture with manufacturing and services PMI readings rebounding while also showing a strong surge in the new orders components. Friday’s July US jobs report topped expectations, as foreshadowed by the President earlier in the week, but the news had little market impact initially, as some analysts noted the improving picture could diminish the sense of urgency surrounding the stimulus talks. Federal Reserve officials offered up a much more circumspect view, largely looking past the rebound seen in the data. Noting the economy is still likely running well below pre-pandemic levels and inflation will be given significant leeway to run above the 2% target before the Fed even entertains the idea of adjusting rates. By midweek, the US 10-year yield moved back to 50 bps as mortgage rates continued to make record lows. The Greenback finally bounced but metals markets held onto the upside momentum. For the week the S&P gained 2.5%, the DJIA was up 3.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.5%.
In corporate news this week, Disney shares rose after the company reported a surprise profit, despite missing on revenue forecasts, and announced it would be making its live action ‘Mulan’ remake available to watch from home in early September. Etsy hit a new all-time high after delivering a blowout earnings report and boasting of a triple-digit boost to gross merchandise sales. Costco posted a nearly +16% rise in July comps (ex gas) and saw e-commerce sales rise 75% in the month. UPS reportedly plans a ‘substantial’ holiday fee for large shippers, which could reach $3 for ground shipments and $4 for air, while FedEx announced hiked surcharges for certain international parcels beginning Aug 10th, with fees doubling for Hong Kong- and Taiwan-to-US packages. Tencent tumbled nearly 10% after President Trump signed two executive orders late Thursday night giving Americans 45 days to sever any relations with Chinese social media platform TikTok and Tencent messaging app WeChat. Bausch Health confirmed plans to spin off its eye health business into an independent publicly traded company. Google said it will invest $450M to acquire a 6.6% stake in ADT as part of an effort to integrate its Nest devices and create an improved smart home security offering. Teladoc Health agreed to acquire remote diabetes coaching specialist Livongo in a cash-stock transaction valued at $18.5B in a merger of two of the largest public companies in the digital health sphere. Jim Hackett announced he would retire as Ford’s CEO a year earlier than anticipated, as incoming CEO Jim Farley takes the helm amid a company-wide restructuring effort.
SUN 8/2
(US) Fed said to consider effectively ending strategy of pre-emptive rate hikes to slow inflation, notes prior comments from Fed officials – US financial press
MON 8/3
5.HK Reports Q2 Net $192M v $4.4B y/y, Adj Pretax $2.6B v $6.03B y/y, Rev $13.2B v $13.7B y/y
*(IT) ITALY JULY MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.9 V 51.2E (1st expansion in 21 months)
*(FR) FRANCE JULY FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.4 V 52.0E (confirms 2nd straight expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY JULY FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.0 V 50.0E (1st expansion in 19 months)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.8 V 51.1E (confirms 1st expansion in 18 months)
*(UK) JULY FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.3 V 53.6E (confirms its 2nd straight expansion)
*(US) JULY ISM MANUFACTURING: 54.2 V 53.6E; PRICES PAID: 53.2 V 52.0E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow raises Q3 GDP growth to +19.6% from +11.9%
(US) Treasury quarterly financing estimates: to borrow $947B in July-Sep quarter v $900Be (prior estimate to borrow $677B)
TUES 8/4
DGE.UK Reports prelim FY20 EPS 109.4p v 130.8p y/y, EBIT £2.14B v £4.04B y/y, Rev £11.8B v £11.8Be; Does not provide guidance; raise dividend 69.9p/shr v 68.6p/shr
(US) July ISM New York: 53.5 v 39.5 prior
AAPL Reportedly has expressed ‘serious interest’ in buying TikTok – Axios
DIS Reports Q3 +$0.08 v -$0.43e, Rev $11.8B v $12.7Be
(US) US-China officials plan to meet in order to assess trade deal progression on Aug 15th – US financial press
*(US) PRES TRUMP: BIG NUMBER COMING OUT ON FRIDAY IN JOBS REPORT
WEDS 8/5
*(US) JULY ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +167K V +1.20ME
*(US) JULY FINAL MARKIT PMI SERVICES: 50.0 V 49.6E
*(US) JULY ISM SERVICES INDEX: 58.1 V 55.0E (highest since Feb 2019)
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -7.4M V -2ME; GASOLINE: +0.4M V -0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +1.6M V +0.5ME
(US) NYC Mayor de Blasio: starting today New York City will implement quarantine check at key entry points throughout the city
(US) Group of 16 GOP Senators support new $25B of payroll assistance for US airlines – press
KBH Reports June/July gross orders +14% y/y, net orders +17% y/y, cancellation rate 18% v 20% y/y
THURS 8/6
SIE.DE Reports Q3 €535M v €1.14B y/y, Industrial Business EBITA €1.79B v €1.66B y/y, Rev €13.5B v €14.24B y/y
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.10%; AS EXPECTED
*(UK) BOE AUG MINUTES: VOTED 9-0 TO KEEP POLICY STEADY
BHC Confirms its intention to spin off Its Eye Health Business Into an Independent Publicly Traded Company (Bausch + Lomb – NewCo)
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 1.19M V 1.40ME; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 16.1M V 16.90ME
(US) State Department to lift advisory against all international travel – press
(CA) Pres Trump set to announce a 10% tariff on certain Canada aluminum products; new tariffs will be effective Aug 16th – press
(CN) US SEC to demand that Chinese firms submit audit papers to the US; Trump administration threatens to delist US-listed China cos. by Jan 2022 if they do not meet US auditing requirements – press
FRI 8/7
*(US) JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:10.2% V 10.6%E
*(US) JULY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +1.76M V +1.48ME
UPS Reportedly plans a substantial holiday fee for large shippers; surcharges could reach $3 for ground shipments and $4 for air – press
*(US) JUN FINAL WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: -1.4% V -2.0%E
(CA) Canada July Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 68.5 v 58.2 prior
FDX Announces raised surcharges for certain international packages beginning Aug 10th; fees to double for Hong Kong- and Taiwan-to-US packages – press
(US) New York Gov Cuomo (D): all school districts eligible to reopen based on infection rates but should cases spike decisions will be ‘revisited’
(US) JUN CONSUMER CREDIT: $8.9B V $10.0BE
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