Futures Levels and Economic Reports 7.24.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday July 24, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Getting Clues from other markets?

When day trading a specific market do you only look at the chart for that specific market? Maybe you took it a step further and you are viewing multiple time frame charts for the same market which is a good step in my eyes.

Now lets take this even one step further by observing what markets have correlation, direct or inverse to the market you are trading, perhaps this can help you make decisions when trading.

I will give a few examples from my experience:

When I am in a position in the mini SP 500, I will often observe what the bonds are doing ( many times inverse correlation), I will take notice of what the Dow, Russell and NASDAQ are doing as well ( direct correlation).

If I am trading crude oil, I will many times pay attention to what unleaded gas and heating oil are doing (very close, although not direct correlation) as well as what WTI crude is doing.

One more example may be when I have a position trade in beans and I will try to get a feel for the overall direction of the grain markets (is there a trend? are they sideways?) by looking at corn, wheat in general and then look to see what bean oil and soy meal which are by products of beans are doing.

One question that can be asked is “what do you mean observe this or that market”? and a good example will be:

Lets say I am short the mini SP 500 and I am not sure if to take profit or not. I look at the mini Russell and see that mini Russell just made new lows, that will give me more confidence to stay in my short position as I feel there might be more room to the downside.

Continue reading “Futures Levels and Economic Reports 7.24.2014”

Crude Oil Futures Renko Charts & Economic Reports 7.23.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday July 23, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

I mentioned in previous posts that I am getting to like range bar charts and Renko charts more and more when it comes for very short term trading.

The main reason why I like these type of charts along with volume charts when it comes to any time frame less than 10 minutes is because I think it helps filter out noise during slow times and help you get a quicker signal when there is time of heavier action in the market.

Example, let’s say you are using a 5 minute chart along with certain studies, to make a simple example, moving averages cross overs. Before you get a signal, the 5 minute bar has to finish so you can see the value of the moving averages and see if you got a cross over or not. There are times when the market is fast with heavy volume and you may miss 80% of the move because 5 minutes can be a long time for day traders…..On the other hand if you are using Renko/volume charts/Range bars and there is good volume, fast action, these bars will complete much faster to provide a much faster signal. On the same token, if the market is slow with low volume, you will sometimes get your moving averages cross over simply because time has passed….With volume / Renko charts you may be able to filter this out simply because the bars WONT complete unless there is enough volume/ price action. Obviously, these type of charts are by no means “holly grail” but I think one should observe and pay attention to the type of charts especially if you are a short term day trader.

Below is an example of crude oil 18 ticks range bar from today as well as a 5 minutes chart from today with the same studies/ conditions applied just to get a visual idea. If you like to try out the same charts I am sharing, feel free to contact Cannon Futures Trading and we will set you up for a free trial:

Crude Oil 5 minute chart 7-22-2014

Crude Oil 5 Minute Chart 7-22-2014
Crude Oil 5 Minute Chart 7-22-2014

Continue reading “Crude Oil Futures Renko Charts & Economic Reports 7.23.2014”

Futures Trading Levels & Economic Reports 7.22.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday July 22, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets Shake Off New Ukraine Tragedy

Fri, 18 Jul 2014 16:09 PM EST- Global equities continued their steady march higher in the first half of the week. The DJIA closed at a record high on Wednesday while the S&P500 came within points of its record high earlier in July. Decent earnings reports from the big US banks and other blue chip firms, plus another healthy dose of M&A deals, including Fox’s $80 billion bid for Time Warner, helped underpin the gains, while there was little negative economic data to get in the way. In the US, the June retail sales numbers were strong after ignoring a decline in reported auto dealer sales. On Thursday, all three US indices lost more than 1.0% after Air Malaysia flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine, in territory controlled by the pro-Russia separatists, with declines exacerbated by an escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict as well as negative housing data in both the US and China. World leaders have called for an independent investigation of the tragedy, but the evidence strongly indicates that the rebels most likely downed the commercial airliner after mistaking it for a Ukrainian military transport. Markets erased all of the losses on Friday, however there is a feeling that the crash has drawn the western powers closer to confrontation with Russia. Even at the height of the selloff in the wake of Air Malaysia disaster, selling was orderly, showing no signs of panic. For the week, the DJIA gained 0.9%, the S&P500 rose 0.5% and the Nasdaq added 0.4%.- In Ukraine, there have been calls for a ceasefire to facilitate an international investigation of the MH17 crash. Wielding the threat of more sanctions, President Obama again demanded Russia use its influence to curb separatist violence, while both the OSCE and US intelligence are fingering the pro-Russia Ukraine rebels for shooting down the airliner. German Chancellor Merkel warned that if it is found that a missile attack brought down the plane, it would constitute a grave escalation of the crisis. In the meantime, Russia President Putin and the rebels are loudly declaring their innocence. Less than 24 hours before the plane was downed, the US added Gazprombank, Rosneft Oil and other Russian companies and officials to its sanction list, while the EU was reportedly close to adding more sanctions.- Fed Chair Yellen provided her semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress this week, including testimony before House and Senate subcommittees. Little new emerged from the testimony, as Yellen more or less reiterated all her standard policy positions. Yellen said rates would be more accommodative if the economic performance is disappointing and could increase sooner if the labor market continues to improve faster than expected. Some market participants seemed to believe Yellen took a more hawkish tone, however on the whole she stuck to her prior talking points. The one interesting note came in the text of the full Monetary Policy Report, which warned that small cap biotech and social media valuations are a bit high relative to historical norms. Shares of momentum tech and biotech names dropped after the report was disclosed. Some on Wall Street derided the Fed for commenting on such specific market segments, while others merely took it as a signal from the central bank that it is keeping a close eye on all markets.

  • The June US housing starts and building permits numbers were not confidence-inspiring. The monthly starts missed expectations by over 100K and the reading was at its lowest level since September 2013. Meanwhile the May starts figure was revised lower. June single-family starts fell to 575K, their lowest level since November 2012.
  • Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both beat earnings and revenue expectations in second-quarter results, with strong gains in investment banking revenue helping to drive profits higher. JPMorgan’s headline numbers also met consensus targets, but profit fell 8% y/y and revenue declined 3% y/y, while fixed income and equity revenue fell 15% y/y. Both Citigroup and Bank of America beat earnings expectations, although both banks took very large litigation charges that cut profit totals significantly in the quarter: Citi took a $3.8B charge and BoA took a $4.0B charge, both were related settlements DoJ investigations of mortgage-backed securities fraud.
  • In one of the more surprising tech stories this week, ancient rivals IBM and Apple entered a cloud computing and mobile device partnership. Under the deal, IBM will sell Apple devices with newly created business apps using IBM’s big data framework. IBM’s headline earnings were mixed, although revenue declined a hair y/y, dragged lower by much slower server sales. Shares of AMD fell sharply after the company reported revenue in its computing solutions chip unit was down 20% y/y. Intel’s numbers were pretty strong, although its efforts to break into mobile continue to suffer.
  • Microsoft said it would lay off up to 18,000 workers over the next year, and take a pretax charge of $1.1-1.6 billion to pay for the cuts. Two thirds of these cuts come in Microsoft’s ill-fated hardware division, representing about half of the total employees that the Nokia deal brought into the company in April.
  • Industrials General Electric, Honeywell and Johnson Controls reported solid, in-line earnings. Both GE and HON met expectations on good earnings and revenue growth, with FY14 guidance reaffirmed. With divestiture and restructuring costs, JCI’s earnings were down sharply, but ex-costs the firm did well.
  • Massive M&A deals were back in headlines. Rupert Murdoch’s Twenty-First Century Fox made a $85/share, $80 billion bid for Time Warner, which rejected the bid. Subsequent reports indicated Fox could expand its offer up to $100/share. AbbVie reached a deal worth roughly $55 billion in cash and stock to combine with Shire. In other deal flow, AECOM agreed to acquire URS Corporation for $56.31/share in cash and stock in a deal valued about $6B, and Kodiak Oil & Gas agreed to be acquired by Whiting Petroleum in an all-stock transaction valued at $6B.

Continue reading “Futures Trading Levels & Economic Reports 7.22.2014”

Global Events & Economic Reports for 7.18.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday July 18, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Just as I wrote about summer trading, unfortunate events with Malaysian airlines plane crash as well as other Geo political events, sent the market down pretty hard along with two sided volatile action.

Personally this was not an easy trading day, as I did not adjust the stops to match increased volatility only to see the direction of trade come back the way I wanted it.

Trading is not easy mentally! I have seen myself and other traders get frustrated when that happens and start a chain of actions that was not in the game plan and can many times cause much bigger losses…. Revenge trading, doubling down are just a few of our “bad friends” who show up when you are not focused and disciplined….

This is when one should take a pause, small break from trading. Step out, stretch, get fresh air and collect one self composure before deciding if to continue trading and how.

I am glad to share that this actually helped me today stay within my game plan and minimize losses to what i consider “acceptable levels”…

Continue reading “Global Events & Economic Reports for 7.18.2014”

Futures Levels & Economic Reports for 7.17.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday July 17, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 In the last few days we witnessed “summer trading” with low volume which encouraged me to share the following with you on the different types of trading days:

  • In my opinion there are 3 main types of trading days.

1. The most common day are two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for using support and resistance levels along with overbought/oversold indicators.

2. Strong trending days, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using ADX, MACD crossovers and pretty much looking for pullbacks to jump on the trend.

3. Slow and/or choppy trading days – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at volume spikes, using stochastics as possible entry signals and usually wait for a pullback before jumping in.

  • A good question I’ve been asked is how can one asses what type of trading day we will have while the market is still trading….I have been doing some work in finding the answers and will be happy to hear feedback via email but here are some initial observations:
    1. Was the overnight session a wide, two sided trading range? If the answer is yes, good chances for similar trading day during the primary session (primary session is when the cash/stock market is open)
    2. Mondays have the highest chance for trending days
    3. The behavior of the first hour of trading can also suggests the type of action for the rest of the day.
    4. If the first 30 minutes of the trading day have good volume, better chances for type 1 or type 2 trading days.
    5. Low volume during the first 30 minutes can suggest a choppy (type 3 trading day)

Continue reading “Futures Levels & Economic Reports for 7.17.2014”

Futures Levels & Economic Reports 7.16.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday July 16, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

Took a few days off from the markets and came back to see some zig zag action as Yellen was talking.

One must know what reports are coming out and also keep a journal so you have reference as far as different reports and how they affect the markets you are trading. In general I think a trading journal is a must for any serious trader, as we are are only humans and can only remember so much. Writing down different aspects of market behavior as well as your behavior can be valuable.

 

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Jim Wyckoff’s Points for Trading Progress/ Success, & Economic Reports 6.26.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday June 26, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

10 Key Questions on Measuring Your Trading Progress, SuccessBy Jim Wyckoff

 

At some point in nearly everyone’s trading timelines, they wonder how their trading successes (or failures) compare with those of other traders. Wondering just how well you stack up to other traders in the industry is a natural curiosity and a human psychological tendency. However, actually knowing the success or failure rates of others doesn’t do a lot to move you farther down the road of where you want to be regarding trading success.

Most traders also wonder about the success rates of the “professional” traders-the ones who make their living solely by the profits they generate from trading. I will provide you with an answer to this question at the end of this feature.

Below are 10 questions regarding measuring your own trading progress and success. These questions should help you determine where you stand in this challenging field of endeavor.

1. What is trading “success?” This is a most basic question. Most would agree that ultimate trading success is defined as being profitable at trading-making more money than you lose. There are other secondary factors that also define success in trading, such as finding a “balance” between trading and other life activities. But it’s being profitable at trading that is the benchmark of defining success.

2. What is trading “progress?” Beginning traders should not expect to have immediate and ultimate success trading futures, stocks or FOREX markets. What they can expect in the early going is to make steady progress through gaining knowledge and experience. Even veteran successful traders continue to make trading progress. Achieving and maintaining trading success requires continual progress-namely continuing to seek out trading and market knowledge. Traders who truly enjoy the “progress” and process of trading do have a significant trading edge over those who do not enjoy learning and gaining experience.

3. At what point in my trading timeline should I expect trading “success?” Trading success (winning trades) can come right away-even for the beginning traders. What is less likely for the inexperienced traders is sustained trading success. Beginners can even run into a “hot streak” that skews the overall reality of trading. Immediate (and likely fleeting) success for a beginning futures trader can do longer-term psychological harm-if he or she does not fully recognize and understand the hard work and perseverance required on the road to trading success. Many times I get questions from less-experienced traders that go something like this: “I’ve been trading two years and I’ve only been able to about break even.”  My reply to them is, “Hey, you should not be too discouraged with those results. Many traders don’t have that kind of success in the early going.”

4. How long will it take to go from being a less-experienced trader to an experienced and hopefully successful trader? Determining a precise timeline at which trading success will arrive will vary greatly among traders. Some beginning traders will spend nearly full time coming up to speed. Others may spend an hour or two a week on the subject. There is no right answer on how much time to spend studying trading and markets. I have many readers who are taking up trading in retirement. I have a few that have taken up trading over the age of 80 years. One is never too young or too old to learn about markets and trading. A general rule would be for a beginning trader not to expect sustained trading success within a few months. More likely is a timeframe of a few years to achieve sustained trading success. Now you see why money management is so important in futures trading. You have to survive before you can succeed!

5. When should I “throw in the towel” and admit that trading is not for me? There is no one right answer to this question. If trading is making you miserable and creating other bad habits (kicking the dog), then it’s time to quit-or at least take an extended break. If you do not have the financial resources to trade futures, then you should not participate. Futures trading should be conducted only with money a trader can stand to lose, without impacting other more important obligations, such as grocery and rent money. It is important to point out that the beginning futures traders who “flame out” first are usually the ones who did not have the financial resources to trade futures in the first place.

6. Am I still hungry for trading and market knowledge? One should never stop endeavoring to gain more knowledge about markets and trading. Even the successful veterans who’ve been in the business for many, many years will say that they are still learning on a daily basis. If you are still striving to learn more about this business–and are enjoying doing it–then that’s a positive signal.

7. How many trading losers should I absorb before I change my trading plan of action? This is a real tough one to answer. Again, there is no single right answer. However, if you believe you have a well-founded and thoroughly researched trading plan of action, don’t abandon it just because you are on a losing streak. All traders have winning and losing streaks. That’s a part of trading. Traders enjoy the winning streaks and do not enjoy the losing streaks. But during the losing streaks they forge ahead, knowing that their plan of action is still solid. Trading plans can certainly be tweaked, such as trading fewer contracts or trading less frequently during a losing streak. For most traders, a complete overhaul of one’s trading plan is probably a last resort that merits much consideration.

8. How can I keep myself motivated on the winding road to trading success?  Traders who enjoy the entire process of trading don’t really need a lot of motivational help because they are already fascinated by what they are reading and learning. But during a losing streak or some other “dry spell” in trading-when morale can slip-it is prudent to read some trading books that are based less on specific methodologies and more on trading psychology. Attending trading seminars is a great way for a trader to become reinvigorated. (And it’s also a great value to those already invigorated!) You not only will gain fresh trading and market knowledge, but you also will get to see and speak with the seminar lecturers as well as traders who are in the same position as you.

9.  How much should I listen to other traders when trying to evaluate my own trading progress or my own trading plan? It is good to have a trading partner or “buddies” with whom to share your ideas and to discuss markets and trading. The learning curve improves when a trader has another trader or traders with similar experience with whom to share ideas. It is also beneficial to have an experienced mentor to help guide you through the “rough waters” that all traders experience at times. But at some point, most traders do want to be more or less autonomous in their decision-making. As many traders gain more experience, knowledge and confidence, they will use outside influences as “second opinions” to reinforce or provide another angle to their own sound opinions. Many traders also have full-time “day jobs” and need outside sources to help save them time and to keep track of what’s going on in all the markets.

10. What is the average success rate of the “professional” trader? I have not seen any “official” studies of the percentage of winning trades of the average professional trader. However, it is generally agreed upon by many in our industry that the better professional traders have a winning percentage of around 4 out of every10 trades-or a 40% winning percentage. Breaking this down even further, it is estimated that half of the winning trades are only small winners and not much better than break-even. Thus, it can be loosely extrapolated that most of the professional futures traders make most of their money on one or two trades out of every 10. This only underscores the importance of sound money management in futures trading-namely cutting losses short and letting winners run.

That’s it for now. Next time, we’ll examine another important issue on your road to trading success.

Jim Wyckoff is the proprietor of the analytical, educational and trading advisory service, “Jim Wyckoff on the Markets.” He has a website at www.jimwyckoff.com

 

 

 

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